DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown, Advice, and Strategy for FanDuel and Draftkings – June 26th, 2019

Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

First  Things First – Looking at Pitchers

I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start by looking at the Research Station and find my main targets based on which teams on the slate have the lowest ISO and wOBA’s against that pitcher’s handedness. From there I then go to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. After my initial research, I’d rank my top 3 as of now at:

  1. Chris Sale –  This guy is striking out a TON of batters right now after a very ugly, slow, start.  I expect him to keep that up in this spot, even against a couple of dangerous CWS bats against LHP.  I think he racks up another double-digit K performance here.
  2. German Marquez –  This game has the lowest opening total on the slate and a TON of that falls on Marquez’s shoulders.  He is in an excellent spot and while SF doesn’t K a ton, they are striking out more this year than in year’s past.
  3. Zac Gallen –  I loved how the kid performed in his debut after putting up really solid numbers in the minors.  Getting to pitch at home, in a pitcher’s park, is going to benefit him in this one.

After I get finished looking at pitching, I move on to my hitters. I look for which teams have the highest ISO against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing. ISO stands for Isolated Power and it is defined as:

ISO measures the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits — and the type of extra-base hit — into account. For example, a player who goes 1-for-5 with a double has an ISO of .200.

Where do we get most of our fantasy points in DFS baseball? Home runs, and if a player has a high ISO it usually correlates very well with extra-base hits and home runs. So the higher a player’s ISO is, the more likely they are to produce hitting for extra bases and home runs, which in turn = more fantasy points! An average ISO is right around .140 and an elite ISO is anything above .250. Teams with the highest ISO’s on the slate tend to score more runs and are in turn more stackable. For more info on how to use ISO to your advantage, check out dabbingpuggle’s Tournament Strategy Guide here!

Full Count Breakdown:

Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers (-114)

Starting Pitchers: Mike Minor vs. Matthew Boyd

The pitchers stand out to me in this game.  This game offers us one of the lowest totals on the slate of games with 2 very strong LHPs.  Both offenses strike out quite a bit against LHPs.  The Rangers are one of the highest scoring teams in baseball so we know that they do have a dangerous offense and Boyd has been giving up HRs.

TEX 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Joey Gallo

GPP Note: TEX is striking out at over a 28% rate against LHP this season.

DET 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos, Niko Goodrum

GPP Note: DET is striking out at over a 27% rate against LHP this season.


Rangers – 2 Stars

Tigers – 1.5 Stars

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies (-148)

Starting Pitchers: Jason Vargas vs. Nick Pivetta

I am very interested in the offenses here as we have a total at 10.5 runs.  I really love the RHBs from both teams here as Pivetta has been a reverse splits P this season.  This game offers two of my top one-offs on the day.  Make sure you join me in the coaching chat to find out who I am referring to! Join me in the Chat!

NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso

4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Amed Rosario

GPP Note: Mets are striking out at just over a 23% rate against RHP this season.

PHI 5-star plays: Scott Kingery, J.T. Realmuto

4-star plays: Jean Segura

GPP Note: PHI is striking out at under a 21% rate against LHP this season.



Philadelphia Phillies: 

Toronto Blue Jays  @ New York Yankees (-270)

Starting Pitchers: Trent Thornton vs. James Paxton

Thornton has really limited the HR ball in June but his strikeout numbers have come down.  That tells me he has focused more on getting ground balls than relying on aiming for Ks and giving up flyballs.  Paxton is giving up a ton of hard contact in June as he fights through a knee issue while pitching.  This is a spot where he has the ability to make his way through a weaker lineup.  He has been spectacular at home so far in 2019.

TOR 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays:  Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

GPP Note: TOR is striking out at under a 25% rate against LHP this season.

NYY 5-star plays: Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu

4-star plays: Gio Urshela, Gleyber Torres

GPP Note: The Yankees are striking out at under a 23% rate against RHP this season.



New York Yankees:  

San Diego Padres (-136) @ Baltimore Orioles

Starting Pitchers: Matt Strahm vs. Dylan Bundy

Strahm is averaging 2 HRs allowed per start in June so that is something we want to pay attention to in a hitters park.  This is a boom-or-bust spot for Bundy as his K numbers vs RHBs are a TON better than they are against LHBs but he is giving up a LOT more power to RHBs so far in 2019.

SDP 5-star plays: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr.

4-star plays: Austin Hedges, Franmil Reyes

GPP Note: SD is striking out at nearly a 27% rate against RHP this season.

BAL 5-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Trey Mancini

4-star plays: Renato Nunez, Pedro Severino

GPP Note: BAL is striking out at nearly a 26% rate against LHP this season.



Baltimore Orioles:  

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Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox (-390)

Starting Pitchers: Reynaldo Lopez vs. Chris Sale

This game is ALL about the Red Sox.  Chris Sale shut down the White Sox earlier this season and the offense has solid numbers against Lopez in their careers.  This game could definitely get ugly and I want to make sure I have pieces of BOS in all game formats.

CWS 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: NONE

GPP Note: The White Sox are striking out at a 24% rate against LHP this season.

BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi

4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Michael Chavis

GPP Note: BOS is striking out at just a 21% rate against RHP this season.


Chicago White Sox:  0 Star (You read that right)

Boston Red Sox:  4.5 Stars

Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians (-215)

Starting Pitchers: Jakob Junis vs. Trevor Bauer

The Indians have some really strong numbers against Junis, while Bauer has really struggled with the HR ball when pitching at home this season.  I am very interested in this game for the offense, mostly the Indians side.

KAN 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Nicky Lopez

GPP Note: KC is striking out at just a 22% rate against RHP this season.

CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana

4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis

GPP Note: CLE is striking out at just under a 24% rate against RHP this season.



Cleveland Indians:  

Washington Nationals (-156) @ Miami Marlins

Starting Pitchers: Patrick Corbin vs. Zac Gallen

I am personally debating going back to the Gallen wagon in this spot.  He was a CORE play in my notes in his first start and I came away pretty impressed by his performance.  Corbin fired a CG-Shutout against the Marlins earlier this season but has been atrocious on the road in 2019.  Something has to give in this match-up.  I lean the Corbin side as Scherzer completely shut them down yesterday after having struggled against them in two starts this season.

WAS 5-star plays: Patrick Corbin

4-star plays: Juan Soto, Howie Kendrick

GPP Note: WAS is striking out at just over a 23% rate against RHP this season.

MIA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Zac Gallen, Starlin Castro

GPP Note: MIA is striking out at just a 21% rate against LHP this season.



Miami Marlins:  

Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs (-128)

Starting Pitchers: Dallas Keuchel vs. Yu Darvish

We NEED to pay attention to the wind in this one as it was blowing out the last couple of games, which drove the run total to Coors-esqe levels.  Keuchel didn’t look necessarily ready for the majors in his first start after being called up and this Cubs team could treat him rudely here.  On the other side, Darvish has been really bad at home this season.

ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman

4-star plays: Nick Markakis

GPP Note: ATL is striking out at just a 22% rate against RHP this season.

CHC 5-star plays: Willson Contreras

4-star plays: Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo

GPP Note: Cubs are striking out at nearly a 26% rate against LHP this season.



Chicago Cubs:

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros (-221)

Starting Pitchers: Dario Agrazal vs. Framber Valdez

The HOU side is pretty intriguing to me.  Agrazal struggled with RHBs in his debut earlier this season and HOU has some dangerous RHBs in their lineup.  Valdez is an impressive young pitcher who is definitely in play tonight.

PIT 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds

GPP Note: PIT is striking out at just under a 25% rate against LHP this season.

HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel

4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, George Springer

GPP Note: HOU is striking out at just over an 18% rate against RHP this season.


Pittsburgh Pirates:  1.5 Stars

Houston Astros:  3.5 Stars

Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers (-200)

Starting Pitchers: Matt Carasiti vs. Adrian Houser

The Mariners are going to roll with Carasiti as an opener and they should follow him up with LeBlanc.  The Brewers haven’t been very elite against LHP this season so there is some thought to give LeBlanc a look.  I keep expecting a bust out game for the Brewers offense so I am going to continue to ride their bats.  Houser has looked really strong as a multi-inning RP but his background is as an SP.  I have not heard what his pitch count max might be for this one.

SEA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: J.P. Crawford, Domingo Santana

GPP Note: SEA is striking out at nearly a 25% rate against RHP this season.

MIL 5-star plays: Ryan Braun

4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas

GPP Note: MIL is striking out at just over a 22% rate against LHP (LeBlanc) this season.


Seattle Mariners:  2 Stars

Milwaukee Brewers:  3.5 Stars

Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins (-110)

Starting Pitchers: Charlie Morton vs. Jake Odorizzi

This game should offer us a solid pitcher’s duel as Morton and Odorizzi have been among the AL’s best starters all season long.  Both pitchers shut the other side down in their only starts against this season.  I respect both offenses enough that I will only be looking to use either SP as part of my MME pool (which you can get a glimpse at on site).

TBR 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Charlie Morton, Austin Meadows, Ji-Man Choi

GPP Note: TB is striking out at under a 24% rate against RHP this season.

MIN 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jake Odorizzi, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario

GPP Note:  MIN is striking out at just a 20% rate against RHP this season.



Minnesota Twins:  

Oakland Athletics @ St. Louis Cardinals (-142)

Starting Pitchers: Daniel Mengden vs. Adam Wainwright

This game seems like one we should be targeting for offense but not many guys really profile all that well.  I will be looking to use guys as one-offs from this game while there is a good chance neither P makes my final SP pool for the day.

OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson

4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien

GPP Note: OAK is striking out at just a 21% rate against RHP this season.

STL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jose Martinez, Marcel Ozuna, Paul DeJong

GPP Note: STL is striking out at under a 23% rate against RHP this season.


Oakland Athletics:  2 Stars

St. Louis Cardinals:  2.5 Stars

Los Angeles Dodgers (-144) @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Starting Pitchers: Tony Gonsolin vs. Taylor Clarke

Gonsolin is an interesting prospect with strong stuff but he is coming off of an IL stint for a side/oblique issue.  His most recent start saw him top out at a season-high, 77 pitches.  I am very intrigued by him but you will have to pay attention to the chat as we try to learn what kind of pitch count he might be on.

LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson

4-star plays: Tony Gonsolin, Justin Turner

GPP Note: The Dodgers are striking out at just a 20% rate against RHP this season.

ARZ 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays:  Ketel Marte, David Peralta

GPP Note:  ARI is striking out at just under a 23% rate against RHP this season.



Arizona Diamondbacks:  

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Colorado Rockies (-136) @ San Francisco Giants

Starting Pitchers: German Marquez vs. Jeff Samardzija

I LOVE this game for pitching.  We are going to spend a lot of time discussing this spot in chat throughout the day.  Marquez is in a great spot and Samardzija could really surprise as well here.

COL 5-star plays: German Marquez

4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Daniel Murphy

GPP Note: COL is striking out at just under a 24% rate against RHP this season.

SFG 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jeff Samardzija, Brandon Belt

GPP Note: SF is striking out at just a 23% rate against RHP this season.


Colorado Rockies:  3 Stars

San Francisco Giants:  1.5 Stars

Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Angels (-114)

Starting Pitchers: Tanner Roark vs. Jaime Barria

This game opened up with a total set at 9.5 runs.  I am a little shocked to see the Angels as the favorite here as Barria has been really bad so far this season.  The Angels do not strike out so Roark’s upside is definitely capped against an offense that has some danger to it.

CIN 5-star plays: Yasiel Puig

4-star plays: Joey Votto, Jose Iglesias

GPP Note: CIN is striking out at a 25% rate against RHP this season.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani

4-star plays: Jonathan Lucroy, Kole Calhoun

GPP Note: The Angels strike out at just over a 17% rate against RHP this season.



Los Angeles Angels:  

Make sure to check out the Coaches Notes/Players Picks as they will have this game covered for you in all areas. The pricing is so much different from the main slate that it can be tough to breakdown from a DFS standpoint. With that said, at first glance, I would be attacking the Cardinals offense and hoping to jump on them while the field views them as terrible plays after they haven’t scored many runs over the past week or so.

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.  Don’t forget to use promo code RAZ for 20% off!

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