Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! This article is supposed to be used as a general overview of the day of MLB we have on deck. I’m your buddy @DFSnDONUTS and you can find me on YouTube | Twitch | iTunes with supplemental commentary and teaching. I am going to break down every single game for you in a clear and concise way as to who I would like to target on each team. Let’s not waste any time and dive right in.
Where Do I Begin?
The MLB Trends tab inside the Research Station is a critical resource I tap into early in the morning. I check who’s hot and who’s not over the last 7, 14, and 30 days for multiple statistics using this tab. I also take a brief sneak peek at our DFS Army Grades for each player.
NYM +137 @ CHC -149
This game is not on the main slate and is a showdown slate on DraftKings. The Vegas line hasn’t come out yet but with Yu Darvish on the mound for the Cubs and Jason Vargas on the mound for the Mets, I would not doubt that we see the Cubbies with an implied run total (IRT) around 5.0 while the Mets are going to be a low 4.0’sh type IRT.
We have a dedicated coach for each and every showdown slate write up a strategy guide article and post a player pool with ratings for the showdown. No slate is uncovered and the analysis is abundant inside the DFS Army. Be sure to check out the showdown coverage later today!
MIA +190 @ PHI -208
Aaron Nola is a heavy favorite right now and the Phillies have a 5.1 IRT against the Sandy Alcantar led Miami Marlins. Nola has allowed just a 29% hard-hit rate this season but has fallen on hard times in his last three starts (40% hard-hit rate). While the Marlins aren’t really an offense to take advantage of a struggling pitcher, his current form and other option on the slate take him out of consideration.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Sandy Alcantar will be very low-owned against the Phillies but has limited opposing hitters to a 194 foot batted ball distance and 90 MPH exit velocity. He has scored 14.70, 24.15, 16.45, and 13.50 DraftKings points in his last four starts and struck out 20 batters in the last 24 innings pitched (IP).
GPP note – Fade the hitters
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Scott Kingery is supernova hot right now and worth using in all formats. J.T. Realmuto is a nice one-off option to fill in the difficult catcher position.
GPP note – Outside of one-off’s with Realmuto or Kingery, I am not team stacking the Phillies.
ATL +124 @ WAS -134
Dallas Kuechel is pitching for the Braves in Washington on Friday. Stephen Strasburg is a slight favorite and the Nationals have a healthy 4.9 IRT. Thus far in 2019, Stephen has held opposing hitters to a 27% hard-hit rate and an 89 MPH exit velocity. However, the Braves are red hot right now and I am not sure I want to target them with other pitching options on the slate looking solid, too.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Keuchel is cheap on FanDuel at just $7,700 and recently threw over 100 pitches in a Minor League outing last weekend. He’s in play for large field tournaments and MME’ing GPP’s (when I’m not writing this piece, my MME Playbook breaks down exposures and leverage plays like these in detail for our members). Ozzie Albies is a nice one-off target with a 55% hard-hit rate and 95 MPH exit velocity on all batted ball events over the last two weeks. Freddie Freeman makes for an excellent one-off as he has multiple hits in 6 out of the last 8 games.
GPP note – The Braves are worth targeting with a small percentage of exposure using our optimizer and the random stacking function.
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Trea Turner is seeing the ball well and has speed on the base paths. Anthony Rendon against lefties is always in play.
GPP note –
SDP +103 @ PIT -111
Eric Lauer against Joe Musgrove doesn’t really move the needle. While Lauer does have some MME appeal due to his price tag his ceiling is quite low. There isn’t much to like on either side on such a massive slate.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Eric Lauer for MME, Eric Hosmer
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Josh Bell
GPP note –
Starting Lineups Page
This is something I make sure I check periodically throughout the day to ensure I am on top of the key matchups in each individual game. It updates as lineups are posted and the critical batter and hitter stats are uploaded as we rollover projected lineups into confirmed lineups. The Starting Lineups Page is a sneaky little treat we have for our members that continuously is getting beefed up as the season progresses.
HOU +139 @ NYY -150
Brad Peacock takes the mound for the Astros against the juggernaut of a lineup that the Yankees have. Luckily for him, he’s not a left-handed pitcher. However, it’s just too risky to target this offense right now and doing so is just getting too cute with your builds.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Robinson Chirinos, Tyler White
GPP note – I like the all right-handed hitting 4-man stack for single entry tournaments.
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – James Paxton looked sharp in 6 IP while striking out 7 and scoring 22.10 DraftKings points in his last start.
GPP note – This entire lineup is built for GPP’s. More specifically, I love to target them in MME when I can use our randomized stack function and set a percentage on the entire Yankees team and ask the algorithm to slap together some delectable stacks.
DET +175 @ CLE -190
I don’t really want to target either offense against good pitching but Matt Boyd does interest me a little for satellite tournaments and MME. Boyd owned the Indians back on April 10th after racking up a quality start and win over 6 IP while scoring 23.30 DraftKings points. He’ll be a single-digit ownership target as well. Upside at low ownership is the name of the game, folks.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Matt Boyd
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note – You can hedge your Boyd investment if you feel the need with slight exposure to the Indians in the randomized stacking function inside the Domination Station.
TOR +295 @ BOS -328
Chris Sale is so expensive on Friday but it might not matter. The Blue Jays can go ice cold on any given day and Sale has scored 51.45, 33.35, and 29.30 DraftKings points in his last three starts. When he’s locked in there might not be someone that can rival his upside. He has 10 or more strikeouts in 8 out of his last 9 games, too. Yikes, Toronto is in trouble.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Chris Sale
4 Star Plays – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Brock Holt, Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi
GPP note – Great team to target for MME and I will break down my exposure settings inside the MME Playbook which will drop later this afternoon for our members.
Crunched For Time? Use Our Personal Player Pools!
I am a #DadLife (link to my YouTube Channel for bonus content) veteran of just under four years. I have two toddlers, too. Sometimes life and work just get in the way of Daily Fantasy Sports. Those days come and go but when they hit me hard I lean heavily on my fellow full-time DFS players and their personal strategy and player pool for the main slate.
CWS +131 @ TEX -142
Reynaldo Lopez against Ariel Jurado and a yummy 11.5 total. Yes, please! The Rangers bats are in play and I will surprise you when we look at the home team targets.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Eloy Jiminez, Yoan Moncada, James McCann, Tim Anderson
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Elvis Andrus
4 Star Plays – Ariel Jurado was shelled last game but was pretty solid prior to his beat down. He’s a fantastic MME target for 150-max tournaments due to his price point and upside.
GPP note – Stack em’ up and stack em’ high. It’s going to be 95 degrees and the ball might be hard for Lopez to keep in the yard.
CIN +112 @ MIL -121
I don’t like either pitcher and really am not targeting either team. While Sonny Gray is prone to blowups, he’s done quite well this season. In fact, he has held opposing teams to 3 or less earned runs in 13 straight starts (the entire 2019 season, actually). But, neither pitcher is exactly eye-popping with Carnage Report ratings of 3.91 and 4.24, respectively.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Sonny Gray is a great GPP target in a perceived difficult matchup as an underdog.
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Christian Yelich is always in play and I wouldn’t doubt he sails one into the bleachers. Great one-off option.
GPP note –
MIN -144 @ KCR +133
The Twins are one of my favorite tournament stacking teams. They are dangerous up and down their lineup and smash home runs. Jake Junis has given up multiple home runs in 4 out of his last 8 starts and 10 in his last 44 innings pitched. Yikes.
Away Team
5 Star Plays – Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler both have elite splits and are hitting very well.
4 Star Plays – Eddie Rosario, C.J. Cron, Jake Cave, Jason Castro
GPP note – They’ll be mentioned heavily in my MME Playbook later today. Fantastic stacking option as a team.
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Whit Merrifield is a solid one-off as well as Jorge Soler
GPP note – They don’t have the upside I want to target for MME.
It’s Time to Dominate
Our beast of an optimizer referred to as, “Domination Station”, just received some massive updates and server-side integration for the algorithm to run at lightning speeds. After you’ve done your research (or use our coaches player pools and let them research for you) it’s time to head on over to the Domination Station and get some work done and create anywhere from 1-150 lineups in just a couple of minutes.
LAA -110 @ STL +101
Griffin Canning is in play against the Cardinals who are ice cold at the plate. Canning has been superb this season and seems like a bargain over on DraftKings where he seems like a shoo-in for at least mid-teens in scoring and potential for a win against a struggling Michael Wacha.
Away Team
5 Star Plays – Mike Trout
4 Star Plays – Kole Calhoun, Tommy La Stella, Justin Upton, David Fletcher, Griffin Canning
GPP note – A nice MME team stack is in play as I expect their 4.6 IRT to hike by 0.5 or so over the rest of the day.
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note – Fading this team entirely. Canning doesn’t get shelled and Wacha stinks.
SFG +120 @ ARI -130
I can’t find out who’s pitching as of yet but the Diamondbacks opened with a hefty 5.4 implied run total, as noted in the Vegas tab of our Research Station. They’ve been playing with the dome open but the grass is different this season and they installed a humidor. The scoring effect has been massive as this was a field we loved to target for stacking, second to only Coors Field.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note – Let’s wait and see who’s pitching for the Diamondbacks but I can’t see it being someone so bad that the Giants low-ceiling offense is in play at all.
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note – I want to know who’s going to be on the mound prior to selecting hitters. The D-Backs have plenty of hitters that dominate splits wise.
TAM @ OAK
Tanner Anderson is pitching for the Athletics but there is no Vegas line or odds and the Rays haven’t announced who is going to start for them. Tanner Anderson is still cheap on DraftKings and looks like a nice GPP option at his price point.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Tanner Anderson
GPP note – Depending on who’s pitching for the Rays, the Athletics will at the very least have some one-off hitters in play due to their massive splits advantages a handful of them carry.
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COL +160 @ LOS -174
Walker Buehler takes the mound for the Dodgers and is a sizeable favorite. He is pounding the strike zone over his last two starts with a 72% strike ratio which has led to 26 K’s over his last 22 IP. He’s in the zone right now and has the potential to soak up innings, rack up strikeouts, and accrue the quality start and win bonus on FanDuel.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Walker Buehler
4 Star Plays –
GPP note – Let’s wait and see who the Rockies announce as the starting pitcher. They have a bunch of strong left-handed hitters who would instantly be in play as 4 and 5 star plays if the Rockies have an RHP on the mound. Joc Pederson, Alex Verdugo, Cody Bellinger, and Max Muncy would all be in play.
BAL +125 @ SEA -135
John Means was slated to start this game but there are reports about him landing on the injured list for 10 days due to shoulder issues. If this is true, then the Orioles might have a bullpen day which should lead to a dramatic spike in IRT for the Mariners. The Orioles bullpen is wretched. Currently, 85% of the public money is on the Mariners.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Mike Leake is not a sexy pick but he has scored 16.75, 29.95, 17.55, and 25.55 DraftKings points in four straight starts. He also has a quality start in 4 straight games on FanDuel, too. He’s consistent and faces a weak team. Mallex Smith, J.P Crawford, Domingo Santana, Dan Vogelbach are all 4 star plays no matter who is on the mound.
GPP note – Depending on who’s pitching for the Orioles, I’ll be targeting the Mariners for a team stack using our optimizer.
What’s Next?
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Closing
I really hope this helps you get your feet under you at the beginning of this MLB season for Daily Fantasy. Please subscribe to me on the following platforms and I would love to hear from you on Twitter or in our member service in my #Donut-Shop coaching channel!
Fortune favors the bold, go make your own luck!
Twitter me @DFSnDONUTS