Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
The start of my daily process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner.
- Gerrit Cole – I look at Cole as this guy that just has massive upside every time he takes the mound. He is used to pitching in the NL and against the Reds having come from the Pirates. Verlander disappointed me a bit in this spot yesterday but we have to have a short term memory when it comes to DFS.
- Chris Bassitt – Bassitt has been a reverse splits P for much of his career and faces an Orioles team that tends to blindly just load the lineup with LHBs against RHPs. This works out great for us tonight as I think Bassitt does nasty things on the mound.
- Daniel Ponce de Leon – Ponce de Leon has looked really solid during his brief MLB career. The Marlins are FAR from dangerous and he gets to face them while pitching at home, as a pretty strong favorite.
Full Count MLB Breakdown:
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (-170)
The game opened with a run total set at 9. Snell has had a couple of rough starts recently but has a really strong start against the Yankees this season. I expect it to take a little bit for the Yankees to come together now that they have gotten Stanton back plus acquired Encarnacion. I like the TB side against CC as there is some animosity between them. He has allowed 3 solo HRs to TB this season, in 2 starts.
TBR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Zunino, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: TB strikes out at nearly a 28% rate against LHP.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: NYY strikes out at nearly a 27% rate against LHP.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals (-170) – GAME 1
This game opened with a run total set at 9.5. The first game of the doubleheader is the one that I expect to see some runs scored, pending the weather of course. We are going to really want to look at some LHBs as both pitchers have their issues with them. Eflin is allowing an HR every 16.5 ABs to LH hitters.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Scott Kingery
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Sean Rodriguez
GPP Note: PHI strikes out at just a 21% rate against LHP.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Matt Adams
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: WAS strikes out at a 24% rate against RHP.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals (-NA) – GAME 2
NO LINE FOR GAME 2. We have to pay attention to the Nationals news feeds as Scherzer is scheduled to pitch this game but he broke his nose during batting practice on Tuesday.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jay Bruce, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: PHI strikes out at just a 23% rate against RHP.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Brian Dozier
GPP Note: WAS strikes out at a 24% rate against RHP.
Los Angeles Angels (-155) @ Toronto Blue Jays
The game opened with a total set at 10 runs. The Angels showed off the power against Edwin Jackson and some of the bullpen Monday night and I think that carries over in a tougher spot, against Sanchez. The Angels roster has 21 hits in 57 career ABs against Sanchez. Yes, the numbers are almost as identical to what they had against Stroman in their careers.
LAA 5-star plays: Kole Calhoun, Justin Upton
4-star plays: Albert Pujols, Mike Trout
GPP Note: LAA is striking out at just over a 17% rate against RHP.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
GPP Note: TOR is striking out at a 24% rate against LHP.
Houston Astros (-180) @ Cincinnati Reds
This game has opened with a run total set at 8.5. Well, I am going back to the Astros P on this slate after Verlander let me down a little bit. Cole has more strikeout upside than Verlander does and while some of CIN have solid numbers against him, I think this is a great spot, in an early game. Mahle has some upside in my eyes and this could be a sneaky spot, but I still love LHBs against him. Look for Alvarez to go deep.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick
GPP Note: HOU is striking out over an 18% rate against RHP.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Derek Dietrich
GPP Note: CIN is striking out at under a 25% rate against RHP.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves (-150)
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. We get a pair of LHPs who have given up double-digit HRs to RHBs so far this season. This might end up being a sneaky spot to find some one-off HRs. I do like the Braves as a sneaky stack against Matz as well.
NYM 5-star plays: Wilson Ramos
4-star plays: Todd Frazier, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: NYM is striking out at over a 26% rate against LHP.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: ATL is striking out at under a 22% rate against LHP.
Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers (-110)
This game has finally opened up with a run total set at 11 runs. This game is going to have some offensive fireworks as both pitchers are just not good. I am looking at the RHBs from both sides in this one. Plutko has given up a ton of power to the right side while Palumbo has given it up to everybody (small sample).
CLE 5-star plays: Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Jordan Luplow, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: CLE is striking out at just a 22% rate against LHP.
TEX 5-star plays: Elvis Andrus
4-star plays: Delino DeShields, Danny Santana
GPP Note: TEX is striking out at a 25% rate against RHP.
Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins (-115)
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5. As I write this the Tuesday night game is in the 15th inning. We are DEFINITELY going to want to see the lineups for the night game. We know that the Twins hit LHP better than basically every team in baseball in this season, while the Red Sox offense has been very Jekyll and Hyde.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Michael Chavis
GPP Note: BOS is striking out at just a 21% rate against RHP.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, CJ Cron
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Marwin Gonzalez, Max Kepler
GPP Note: MIN is striking out at under a 21% rate against LHP.
Miami Marlins @ St. Louis Cardinals (-170)
This game opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Ponce de Leon has been spectacular against LHBs so far this season. Those batters are 0 for 10 with 8 Ks. That is NOT a typo. I just wish the Marlins had more LHBs to put in the lineup. This is probably a game I only use bats as one-offs.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Harold Ramirez
GPP Note: MIA is striking out at over a 25% rate against RHP.
STL 5-star plays: Paul DeJong
4-star plays: Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: STL is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP.
Baltimore Orioles @ Oakland Athletics (-280)
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Bassitt has been a pretty reverse splits P for much of his career. I do think BAL ends up with a lot of LHBs as they just seem to play the R-L game in terms of lineup builds. This spot screams ALL of the OAK guys (pitcher and batters). They do a ton of damage against LHP.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini
GPP Note: BAL is striking out at over a 23% rate against RHP.
OAK 5-star plays: Khris Davis, Stephen Piscotty
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: OAK is striking out at under an 18% rate against LHP.
San Franciso Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-250)
This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. The Giants just got blanked 9-0 by Kershaw and the Dodgers on Tuesday night. As a team, they have had more success against Rich Hill but the spot just is not very good for them. The Giants just are not a very good baseball team right now. On the other side, Pomeranz has had very strong success against this roster so the game could be closer than we might normally think.
SFG 5-star plays: Buster Posey
4-star plays: Kevin Pillar, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: SF is striking out at over a 24% rate against LHP.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: David Freese, Chris Taylor
GPP Note: LAD is striking out at just a 22% rate against LHP.
Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners (-120)
This game opened with a run total of 9. This game actually excites me for pitching options. Keller hasn’t been all that great this year but is coming off of an excellent start against the Twins and now faces a downward spiraling Mariners team. On the other side, Gonzales is the better pitcher of the two so I have to have some interest in him based on being on the projected winning side.
KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Jorge Bonifacio
GPP Note: KC is striking out at nearly a 26% rate against LHP.
SEA 5-star plays: Kyle Seager
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Omar Narvaez
GPP Note: SEA is striking out at a 25% rate against RHP.
Milwaukee Brewers (-110) @ San Diego Padres
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Strahm has not been good this season so the Brewers are in a spot to bust out a bit in this game. The game went late Tuesday night so we need to watch for the lineups of an early game on Wednesday. Davies has really surprised and offers us some upside in a spot where he should see a bump in K rate.
MIL 5-star plays: Ryan Braun
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: MIL is striking out at a 22% rate against LHP.
SDP 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
GPP Note: SD is striking out at nearly a 27% rate against RHP.
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-117)
This game opened with a run total of 8. Both sides have SPs that are coming off of the IL to make their starts. This could lead to some rusty innings and mistakes. Definitely going to need to pay attention to chat as we dig into more of the rehab starts and possible pitch limits as news becomes available. I prefer the Pirates side in this game.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: DET is striking out at nearly a 27% rate against RHP.
PIT 5-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Josh Bell
4-star plays: Colin Moran, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: PIT is striking out at just a 20% rate against RHP.
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs (NA)
NO LINE YET
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, James McCann
GPP Note: CWS is striking out at a 24% rate against LHP.
CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: CHC is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP.
________________________________________________________________________________________________
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-130)
This game opened with a run total of 8.5. I have interest in both sides from an offense and P standpoint. I think both Ps offer us GPP upside but they can be beaten as well. This game could be what makes or breaks some GPPs for us on the main slate. Greinke has solid numbers against COL but has given up a bunch of HRs to them.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Daniel Murphy
GPP Note: COL is striking out at under a 24% rate against RHP.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte, David Peralta
4-star plays: Nick Ahmed, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: ARI is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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