Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
The start of my research process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. I normally give a quick glimpse of the top three pitchers in this report, but I’m going to leave that for VIP members for this slate, instead, I’ll break down some guys in interesting spots.
- Trevor Bauer – The ELITE K upside is tough to ignore as he is striking guys out at a high rate and DET is striking out against RHP at a very high rate. The HR issues lately are a concern but at least this is a big park today. Going to be my most targeted pitcher for GPP purposes.
- Dakota Hudson – I LOVE the elite groundball rate, especially for DK’s efficiency scoring system. The Mets do not scare me at all and Hudson should be able to get us a respectable line here.
- Archie Bradley – This is an interesting situation as Bradley has been tabbed as the opener for Sunday. The main thing is that he hasn’t been listed as just a 1 inning guy. It is being reported that he could go up to 4 innings. He was a highly touted SP coming up through the minors so we know he has the talent to be a starter. He offers K upside at a very cheap price and if he gets us 3 innings on DK, that could be huge.
Full Count Breakdown:
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals (-140)
The game finally opened with a total of 9.5 Sunday morning. The Diamondbacks are going to “open” with Archie Bradley, only there is no set number of innings that he is going to go. I definitely have some initial interest in the pitchers for both teams, Sanchez, Bradley, and Godley (projected long reliever). Both offenses fall into the deep GPP stacks for me with a couple of guys being solid one-off options.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Jones, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: ARI is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Howie Kendrick, Trea Turner
GPP Note: WAS is striking out at a 24% rate against RHP this season.
Boston Red Sox (-155) @ Baltimore Orioles
The game has opened with a total set at 10 runs. I am a bit shocked to see the total in double figures. While we get two relatively unknown pitchers in this one, one has been stellar all season and the other is facing what might be the worst team in baseball. I very much think both Ps are in play for GPPs here.
BOS 5-star plays: J.D. Martinez
4-star plays: Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: BOS is striking out at under a 23% rate against LHP this season.
BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Hanser Alberto
GPP Note: BAL is striking out at over a 26% rate against LHP this season.
Texas Rangers @ Cincinnati Reds (-170)
The game has opened with a total set at 9. This is another spot that I would prefer to use the pitchers while sticking to one-offs from the offenses. Jurado has thrown 4 straight QS’s since being stretched out and Gray has given up more than 3 ER’s just once on the season to this point.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Logan Forsythe, Shin-Soo Choo
GPP Note: TEX is striking out at a 25% rate against RHP this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: CIN is striking out at a 25% rate against RHP this season.
Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays (-145)
This game has a run total set at just 8 runs. The early indication is that Beeks will follow Stanek as the long man for the Rays. This game seems like another one that will have me looking at pitching over hitting. I really like Canning’s ability, even in a tough spot. Canning has been really tough on LHBs so far in his young career.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: LAA strikes out at barely over a 16% rate against LHP this season.
TBR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Pham
GPP Note: TB is striking out at just a 23% rate against RHP this season.
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Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) @ Miami Marlins
Opened with just an 8 run total on Saturday night. Archer is allowing a lot of HRs so far in 2019 but thankfully he gets to pitch in a gigantic park, against a really bad offense. The Pirates bats are rolling right now and that doesn’t sound like a good thing for the Marlins starter, Alcantara.
PIT 5-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Kevin Newman
GPP Note: PIT is striking out at just a 20% rate against RHP this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: MIA is striking out at under a 26% rate against RHP this season.
St.Louis Cardinals (-110) @ New York Mets
This game opened Saturday night with a total of 9. I still can’t get on board with using Vargas for DFS purposes. This is a guy that can’t throw hard enough to break a wet, paper bag. At some point an offense is going to light him up, why not in this one? The Cardinals can be extremely right-handed. I like what Dakota Hudson brings to the mound with his extreme ground ball rate.
STL 5-star plays: Paul DeJong
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: STL is striking out at just over a 21% rate against LHP this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: NYM is striking out at less than a 24% rate against RHP this season.
Cleveland Indians (-155) @ Detroit Tigers
The game has opened with a total of 8.5 runs. Bauer is one of my favorite pitchers in baseball but something is up as he keeps giving up HRs. The match-up itself is extremely nice as Detroit has one of the weakest offenses against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jake Bauers
GPP Note: CLE is striking out at under a 24% rate against RHP this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: DET is striking out at nearly a 27% rate against RHP this season.
Philadephia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (-153)
This game has opened with a total of 10.5 runs. The Phillies will use Velasquez as an opener and follow him up with Cole Irvin. I love the ATL offense in this spot and think you can consider a full game stack as Folty has been pretty bad this season.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryce Harper
GPP Note: PHI is striking out at just a 23% rate against RHP this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Acuna Jr, Riley
4-star plays: Donaldson, Swanson
GPP Note: One of my top stacks
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New York Yankees (-210) @ Chicago White Sox
The game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. The Yankees should be able to smack Despaigne all over the yard in this one. He generally doesn’t give up much for HRs but he allows a TON of baserunners. Paxton should be in line for an easy win. We need to research what kind of pitch total we can expect out of Paxton in this one.
NYY 5-star plays: Luke Voit
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier
GPP Note: NYY is striking out at just a 22% rate against RHP this season.
CHW 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: James McCann
GPP Note: CWS is striking out at just under a 24% rate against LHP this season.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros (-220)
This game opened with a total set at 8.5. This is a spot where I want to attack and get all the HOU bats that I can get, especially Yordan Alvarez. The kid is on a tear and I might as well call for yet another HR today! Peacock is definitely in play against a weak Blue Jays team. If Vlad Jr returns to the lineup, I would consider him as he had been swinging a hot bat.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eric Sogard, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
GPP Note: TOR is striking out at over a 25% rate against RHP this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick
GPP Note: HOU is striking out just an 18% rate against RHP this season.
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (-190)
The game opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. This KC team has some solid numbers against Martin Perez in their careers but those numbers all came in previous seasons. Perez is pitching a bit differently this season and I think he is an excellent GPP target today. The Twins offense will again be near the top of my stack list!
KCR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler
GPP Note: KC is striking out at a 26% rate against LHP this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: MIN is striking out at just a 20% rate against RHP this season.
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San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies (-140)
The game opened with a total of 12.5 runs. This series has been LOADED with offensive outbursts and I expect that to continue on Sunday. At least, from the Rockies side of things. Lambert has shown me some things through 2 starts and I have some interest in the kid for GPP purposes as a way to hedge against SD ownership. Don’t get me wrong, I will definitely have some SD bats.
SDP 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Ian Kinsler, Fernando Tatis Jr.
GPP Note: SD is striking out at over a 27% rate against RHP this season.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: David Dahl, Daniel Murphy, Ian Desmond
GPP Note: COL is striking out at a 26% rate against LHP this season.
Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics (-155)
This game has a total of 9.5 runs. Tanner Anderson looked really solid in his call-up start, which caught me off guard. He is in play in this spot because SEA is less than dangerous at this point in the season. Crazy fall for a team that started out so hot. Leake is somebody that I target against with bats but he somehow limits production.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: SEA just got even worse with the trade of Encarnacion to the Yankees
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman
4-star plays: Matt Olson
GPP Note: As a team, OAK has 167 PAs against Leake
Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-170)
The Sunday night game has a total set at 8 runs. Ryu has been filthy all season long and this seems like another spot for him to be impressive. The Cubs are a dangerous team but they can go through struggles and Buehler kept them off balance all night last night. Quintana has the ability as well so this game could be a bit lower scoring.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: The Cubs bats have upside and the LHBs have the ability to hit LHPs
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Chris Taylor, David Freese
GPP Note: The RHBs are interesting options but can be frustrating because of the threat to be PH for.
Milwaukee Brewers (-145) @ San Francisco Giants
This game has a total set at 8.5 runs. I am torn on this game as Samardzija has been really solid at home while Anderson has been less than excellent. The Brewers have let the Giants get the best of them this series but they have such a dangerous offense. I have to think they come out swinging it today.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Ryan Braun
GPP Note: MIL has hit .355 across 107 PAs against Samardzija
SFG 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Pablo Sandoval
GPP Note: Giants are in a sneaky GPP spot
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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