DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown, Advice, and Strategy for FanDuel and Draftkings – June 14th, 2019

Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers

I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. I normally give a quick glimpse of the top three pitchers in this report, but I’m going to leave that for VIP members for this slate, instead, I’ll break down some guys in interesting spots.

  • Lucas Giolito – Who would’ve thought that Giolito would be $11.1k against the Yankees in the middle of June? Well, he is, and he is pitching incredibly. Over his last seven games, he is averaging 33.8 Draftkings points per game. However, in one game against the Yankees this season he only scored 13 Draftkings points, so we take the good with the bad. I’ve been paying down for pitching lately and getting the bats I want, but it’s hard to ignore Giolito here, even in a tough spot.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez – This is a guy that I never really love to play just because of his boom/bust potential, but this makes him a great GPP option at the very least. The Orioles strikeout at a 23.8% rate on the season to go along with Rodriguez’s 25.7% k rate. In one game against the Orioles, this season E-Rod scored 29.2 Draftkigns points. I like Rodriguez here, especially for GPP’s.
  • Zach Davies – This is a spot where I will be loading up on Mr. Davies. He has been incredible this season and won’t draw a whole lot of ownership because of his low strikeout rate. The thing that I love about Davies is that he is doing all this even in a hitters paradise called Miller Park. Here he travels on the road to an extreme pitchers park in San Francisco. He is averaging five more Draftkings points per game on the road this season and the Giants offense does not scare me, give some cheap Davies here.

Full Count Breakdown:

Arizona Diamondbacks (+177) @ Washington Nationals (-193)

Max Scherzer is not a guy I want to be stacking against and has an elite 33% strikeout rate on the season, so if you have the money it’s hard not too like Scherzer here. I have a lot of respect for Robbie Ray’s talent, so I will find another team to stack on a massive slate here.

ARI 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: 15 game slate, you don’t need to take hitters against Mad Max here

WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon

4-star plays: Trea Turner

GPP Note: One-offs only, there are better spots on this slate

Boston Red Sox (-195) @ Baltimore Orioles (+179)

I touched on Eduardo Rodriguez in my pitcher’s section, so I like him here. However, if you plan on playing a ton of him, make sure to get a hedge Orioles stack because he doesn’t come without risk. The Red Sox are one of my favorite stacks on the board if Dan Straily gets confirmed as the starter. Straily is a certifiable gas can, load up on the Sox.

BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts

4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Michael Chavis

GPP Note: One of my favorite stacks on the slate

BAL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini

GPP Note: I like Rodriguez more than this stack, but make sure to edge if playing a high volume

Texas Rangers @ Cincinnati Reds

Tyler Mahle is much worse against lefties than he is against righties, so in a small ballpark in a good matchup, I like stacking up the Rangers lefties here. As far as the Reds go, they are a secondary stack for me, nothing I really need to have here.

TEX 5-star plays: Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor, Ronald Guzman

4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Danny Santana

GPP Note: The Rangers feel sneaky here, I’m hoping they fly under the radar

CIN 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Nick Senzel, Derek Dietrich, Eduardo Suarez

GPP Note: Mini-stacks or one-offs for me

Los Angeles Angels (+154) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-167)

This game is a pitching game for me with Snell and Heaney on the mound. From the two I would rather have Snell, just because I have respect for that Rays offense, it is #Dangerous.

LAA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Mike Trout

GPP Note: Only guy I want here is Trout in GPP’s

TBR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Austin Meadows

GPP Note: Just pitching for this game

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Pittsburgh Pirates (+103) @ Miami Marlins (-111)

If this game wasn’t in Miami I would have a lot of interest in the Miami offense, Steven Brault is not good and I don’t mind a GPP Marlins stack. Trevor Richards has been pitching very well, but the Pirates offense has been hot over the past week or so, on a full slate I think I’ll go elsewhere.

PIT 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Josh Bell

GPP Note: One-offs

MIA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Brian Anderson

GPP Note: Mini-stacks and one-offs

St.Louis Cardinals (+113) @ New York Mets (-123)

Steven Matz has been pitching fairly well as of late, so I don’t know that I’ll full stack the Cardinals. With that said, their lineup is good enough to take advantage of any pitcher so I don’t hate getting a little exposure here. Ponce de Leon feels a bit too overpriced for me in this matchup.

STL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Marcell Ozuna, Paul DeJong, Paul Goldschmidt

GPP Note: Mini-stacks and one-offs

NYM 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Peter Alonso, Michael Conforto

GPP Note: One-offs

Cleveland Indians (-140) @ Detroit Tigers (+129)

I don’t have much interest in either of these pitchers, but I also don’t have an interest in the Tigers offense. The Indians are a different story. They have an implied run total of 5.2 runs here and Carpenter just gave up eight earned runs in his last game out, I like the Indians here.

CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana

4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Oscar Mercado

GPP Note: I like the Indians stack here

DET 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Niko Goodrum, Nick Castellanos

GPP Note: One-offs

Philadephia Phillies (+131) @ Atlanta Braves (-142)

Nick Pivetta has scored at least 29 Draftkings points in two straight games, but I think it’s time to jump off here against the Braves. The Braves have been swinging some hat bats and have an implied run total of 5.2 here. Max Fried, on the other hand, is very interesting to me. He is very cheap and gets a boom or bust offense in the Phillies, I really like him for GPP’s.

PHI 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto, Jay Bruce

GPP Note: One-offs

ATL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna

GPP Note: Mini-stacks and one-offs

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New York Yankees (+102) @ Chicago White Sox (-110)

I touched on Lucas Giolito earlier, and the Yankees just won’t be making my stack list here because of how good Giolito has been. CC Sabathia usually isn’t a guy I want to stack against even when he’s at home, on the road against a pretty poor offense he’s not the worst SP2 option.

NYY 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: I’ll wait for Giolito to come back to earth first

CHW 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez

GPP Note: One-offs

Toronto Blue Jays (+235) @ Houston Astros (-258)

The Astros are huge favorites here, as they usually are when Gerrit Cole takes the mound. Cole is an elite option, but finding the money for him will be difficult. The Astros may be popular here and I like them, the addition of Yordan Alvarez makes this injury-riddled lineup look much better.

TOR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: Don’t stack against Gerrit Cole

HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman

4-star plays: Robinson Chirinos

GPP Note: I like the Astors here

Kansas City Royals (+188) @ Minnesota Twins (-205)

The Twins have an implied run total of six runs here, meaning… stack ’em up. The Twins are one of the best, if not, the best offense in the league and if you have the money you should be looking their way. Kyle Gibson has been very good this year and the Royals strikeout at a 23.5% rate so I don’t hate him here.

KCR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield

GPP Note: One-offs

MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario

4-star plays: CJ Cron, Marwin Gonzalez, Jason Castro

GPP Note: It’s hard not to like the Twins here, they’re a top three stack for me

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San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

I stacked up the Rockies last night and it worked out well, I think you can go right back to the well here. The Padres are also very in play with Jeff Hoffman on the mound. These are two of the better stacks on the slate if you can find the money for them. Manny Machado at $4.3k on Draftkings is a steal (hint, hint)

SDP 5-star plays: Manny Machado, Franmil Reyes, Fernando Tatis

4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers

GPP Note: Hard not to like them

COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon

4-star plays: David Dahl, Ian Desmond, Daniel Murphy

GPP Note: Again, Coors field.

Seattle Mariners (+169) @ Oakland Athletics (-184)

Chris Bassit is a guy that I will have some interest in as an SP2 option. The Mariners have been more bust than boom as of late, so I like targeting them with a pretty solid pitcher. I don’t really love stacking up the A’s at home and I think Marco Gonzales is at least serviceable.

SEA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Mallex Smith, Edwin Encarnacion

GPP Note: One-offs

OAK 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Khris Davis

GPP Note: One-offs

Chicago Cubs (+121) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-131)

This is another pitchers game for me, I won’t have much offensive pieces at all. Of the pitchers, I like Rich Hill more, I expect the Kyle Hendricks dominance to come to a halt in the near future.

CHC 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez

GPP Note: One-offs

LAD 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson

GPP Note: Mini-stacks and one-offs

Milwaukee Brewers (-136) @ San Francisco Giants (+126)

I touched on Zach Davies at the beginning of this article when I talked about a few pitchers. He is probably my favorite cheap pitching option on the slate and I will have zero Giants bats here. The Brewers offense is so good I will always have at least a little of them. But, on the road in a pitchers park, I think it’s safe to temper expectations.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas

4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Eric Thames

GPP Note: GPP stacks only

SFG 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: I’m really taking a Davies stand here

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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