DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown, Advice, and Strategy for FanDuel and Draftkings – June 13th, 2019

Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Steve aka @mutt_18 on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!


Full Count Breakdown:

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves (-150)

The game has opened with a run total of 9.5.  Musgrove gets another shot at the Braves after getting ejected a few nights ago. He hasn’t been anything special so far this year which makes me believe that the Braves should get to him a bit here, especially their lefties. He faces off against Teheran who pitches worse at home and gets a park downgrade from his last start in Miami. I expect the Pirates to get to him here today, especially their lefties.

PIT 5-star plays: Josh Bell

4-star plays: Corey Dickerson, Adam Frazier, Colin Moran

GPP Note: PIT is striking out at just a 21% rate against RHP.

ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr.

4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis, Austin Riley

GPP Note: Pirates are striking out at just a 20% rate against RHP.


Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins (-170)

The game opened with a total set at 10.5 runs.  If you’re playing the early slate you’re likely going to need to load your line with Mariners and Twins. Pineda has been horrible all year, and the Twin crush LHPs and Kikuchi is very up and down.

SEA 5-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach

4-star plays: Edwin Encarnacion, Kyle Seager

GPP Note: SEA strikes out at over a 25% rate against RHP

MIN 5-star plays: C.J. Cron, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver

4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Marwin Gonzalez, Eddie Rosario

GPP Note: The Twins have a team ISO of .243 against LHP this season and only strikeout at a 20% rate to LHPs.


Toronto Blue Jays (-140) @ Baltimore Orioles

This game opens with a total set at 9.  It looks like that we’re going to have to keep an eye on weather on this one. Stroman has been decent so far this year, but profiles well against this Baltimore team. He’s a decent pitching option tonight. The Orioles will use Ynoa as an opener tonight, he’ll likely only go 4-5 innings so he isn’t really a viable option here.

TOR 5-star plays: Rowdy Tellez

4-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Randal Grichuk, Marcus Stroman

GPP Note: Jays are striking out at a rate of 25% to RHPs.

BAL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Renato Nunez

GPP Note: Orioles are striking out at a rate of 22% to RHPs.


Arizona Diamondbacks (-120) @ Washington Nationals

The game has opened with a total of 8.5 as Greinke will square off with Erick Fedde. This is a lower total and I’m likely not going to stack against either of these pitchers, but some one-offs are a definite possibility here.

ARI 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar

GPP Note:  Diamondbacks strikeout at a 23.4% rate to RHPs on the season.

WAS 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Matt Adams

GPP Note: I prefer the RHBs (Harper obviously an exception) against M.Kelly.

 

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 Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox (-240)

This game has opened with a total at 9 runs.  Price has been really sharp over his last three starts, and makes for a great option here as the Rangers strikeout at a very high rate. Adrian Sampson is not a good pitcher, so the Red Sox are definitely a nice stack option here tonight, if not then I specifically like Benintendi.

TEX 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Elvis Andrus

GPP Note: TEX is striking out at under a 27% rate against LHP.

BOS 5-star plays: David Price, Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez

4-star plays: Michael Chavis, Mookie Betts

GPP Note: BOS is striking out at just a 21% rate against RHP.


Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays

Total for this game hasn’t been set yet, but I would expect that it’ll be somewhere around 8.5-9.5 runs.  Yarbrough will open up for the Rays, and he’s been solid, but I just usually don’t go here, especially on a slate where we have some solid pitching options. Skaggs is starting the Angels and the Rays have struggled mightily against LHPs on the year. Skaggs hasn’t been too sharp on the year though, so I’d only consider him in GPPs. I’ll still consider some of the Rays right handed bats in this one though.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout

4-star plays: Tyler Skaggs (GPP only)

GPP Note: Rays are striking out at a 29% rate to LHPs on the year, increasing Skaggs’ ceiling.

TBR 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Tommy Pham, Yandy Diaz

GPP Note: TB is striking out at a 29% rate against LHP.


St. Louis Cardinals  @ New York Mets (-140)

The game has opened with a total of just 7.5 runs.  deGrom is starting for the Mets, and while the Cardinals are not slouches against RHPs, they don’t really have many LHB’s that do much damage, so I expect deGrom to have some success here. Flaherty will be on the bump for the Cardinals, and has had himself a solid year so far. He could also have some success here which is why the run total is so low. I wouldn’t stack either team here, but I like a few one off bats.

STL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Marcel Ozuna, Jack Flaherty, Paul Goldschmidt

GPP Note: Cardinals strikeout at a rate of 22% to RHPs

NYM 5-star plays: Jacob deGrom

4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Robinson Cano

GPP Note: The Mets strikeout at a rate of 23.7% to RHPs.

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Detroit Tigers (-128) @ Kansas City Royals

This game doesn’t have a total yet, but I’d say its safe to say that it’ll be somewhere around 9 runs like it was yesterday. Homer Bailey is on the mound tonight, a very fitting name for his pitching style. I expect Detroit to get to him a bit today. Matthew Boyd is on the other side for the Tigers, and he’s been really solid all year long and the Royals haven’t been great at hitting lefties. I think you can do a 3 man stack from the Tigers here.

DET 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays:  Miguel Cabrera, Niko Goodrum, Nick Castellanos, Matthew Boyd

GPP Note: DET is striking out at nearly a 26% rate against RHP.

KCR 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi, White Merrifield, Jorge Soler

GPP Note: KC is striking out at a 26% rate against LHP.


New York Yankees (-180) @ Chicago White Sox

This game has an opening total of 10 runs. We want to get bats in this game, on both sides of this one. JA Happ hasn’t been sharp at all this year, and the White Sox hit LHPs much better than right handed hitters. Nova has been horrible all year, so I’ll be attacking him with the Yankees bats in this one. You can stack both teams hitters here.

NYY 5-star plays: Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez

4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier, Didi Gregorius

GPP Note: Nova has an ERA over 6 and hasn’t been able to get anyone out this year.

CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson

4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez

GPP Note: CWS strikeout at a 24.6% rate to LHPs.


San Diego Padres  @ Colorado Rockies (-145)

This game doesn’t have an opening total yet, but I expect it to be somewhere around 10-11 runs as we’re in Coors. This is a blowup spot for the Rockies, as Strahm is a LHP (who they crush) and is coming off the IL. Jon Gray will take the mound for the Rockies, and I think he’ll have a lot more success than Strahm will in this one. I’ll be loading up on Rockies bats here.

SDP 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Eric Hosmer, Fernando Tatis Jr.

GPP Note:  Padres strike out at a 27% rate to RHPs.

COL 5-star plays:  Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

4-star plays: Ian Desmond, Raimel Tapia, Ryan McMahon (hits lefties well)

GPP Note: They should put up runs, but will be highly owned for sure.


Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-185)

This game has an opening total of just 8 runs.  I’m going to be going more for the pitching side of things in this one given the low run total, and the fact that the Dodgers are just mediocre against LHPs. Clayton Kershaw is going to be one of my favorite options on the slate here. Lester makes for an interesting GPP target as he was solid last time out and like I mentioned above, the Dodgers aren’t as scary against LHPs.

CHC 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jon Lester, Kris Bryant

GPP Note: Cubs strikeout to LHPs at a 25% rate this year.

LAD 5-star plays: Clayton Kershaw

4-star plays: Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner

GPP Note: Dodgers have a team ISO of .179 against LHPs, as opposed to their .215 ISO against righties.

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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