Shark Autopsy Report – Analyzing MMA GPP Lineups to Make You a Better Player

Welcome back to the Shark Autopsy Report!  If this is your first time reading the Shark Autopsy Report, Welcome!  Over the course of the MMA season this article will deconstruct winning DraftKings lineups in contests where the dark waters of Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) contests that are ripe with sharks.  Navigating these waters where the sharks smell blood in the water is not easy, but the DFSArmy has you covered, providing you with the essential daily tools to help our VIPs turn into sharks!

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Little Bit about the DFSArmy

For those of you who are new to Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) and are looking for a top notch, second to none DFS site that can provide you with the tools to construct quality DFS lineups like the pros use, then look no further, the DFSArmy has you covered.  At DFSArmy, we don’t just focus on the major sports, we also look at the niche sports and place as much of a focus on dominating the competition as the major sports.  DFSArmy’s coaches are truly amazing at their crafts, and the MMA coaches are no different, with each coach spending hours upon hours researching each fight card to the nth degree.  DFSArmy prides ourselves on the ability of our coaches to teach and provide our members with the methodologies, processes, tools and thought processes to become an equitable DFS player, who can grow their bankroll with proper bankroll management and turn your everyday DFS Joe into a DFS Pro.  DFSArmy covers all of the DFS sports from the main 4 (MLB, NBA, NFL & NHL) to PGA, MMA, Soccer and College FB and BB.  Additionally, DFSArmy has its own Sportsbook team to help you with sports betting.  The DFSArmy is an all-in one Fantasy Sports and Sportsbook site that you can’t afford to not be a member!  Our members get the opportunity to learn from the top MMA DFS players that are all highly ranked by RotoGrinders.

Synopsis of the Shark Autopsy Report

The Shark Autopsy Report is different from the other DFS site’s lineup breakdown articles that you can read online, as there are a multitude of these types of articles.  The Shark Autopsy Report provides you with a breakdown of the top ranked DFS pros lineups construction, from the total number of lineups they utilized each fighter in the Uppercut contest, their percentage of that fighter drafted overall in the Uppercut contest, the percentage the tourney field drafted the fighter, and the variance between the DFS Pros’ percentage drafted of a particular fighter as compared with the tourney field.  Note: with the Shark Autopsy Report, you will see negative and positive variance percentages.  The positive variance values showcase the DFS Pros were overweight on a particular fighter as compared to the tourney field and negative variance values showcase the DFS Pros were underweight on a particular fighter as compared to the tourney field.

Are You Performing Weekly Lineup Deconstruction?

No matter the sport you determine to invest your bankroll, you should as a DFS player be analyzing the contests you enter winning lineups and the DFS Pros’ lineups within those contests.  Don’t just look at the lineup of who won the contests you entered, but familiarize yourself with how the top 20 constructed their lineup and the DFS Pros’ lineups.  If you are new to Daily Fantasy Sports and are not familiar with the DFS Pros that compete (not participate) in the respective sport you are playing, then go to RotoGrinders Leaderboards and look at each sport’s leaderboards.  The top guys are there and familiarize yourself with their screen names.  Lineup deconstruction in some way, shape or form should be part of your repertoire as a DFS player to revisit the prior week’s winning lineups, not just for the top heavy payout contests (think NFL Milly Maker, MMA Throwdown), but all of the contests you entered to see how the winning lineups were constructed.  Additionally, you should be looking at your own lineups to determine WHY certain plays in your lineups went off and WHY other plays did not.  This will ultimately make you a better player, but it will help you determine lineup construction trends you may not have otherwise noticed if you were not reviewing over past week’s lineups.  If you don’t think that lineup construction is as much an art as it is a science, then you are simply kidding yourself and you need to rethink your methodology of lineup construction.

DraftKings $120K Throwdown Contest – April 27th UFC Ft. Lauderdale Slate

Unlike the NFL Milly Maker and Sunday Million contests, MMA doesn’t offer tourney top prize payouts that the casual DFS players will flock to.  In fact, similar to other niche sports, MMA has smaller contest pools and smaller contest payouts, though the payouts in the Throwdown are really good.  As compared to the NFL, the Throwdown is MMA’s equivalent to the Milly Maker.  Like any other sport you intend to enter lineups, make sure that you are researching the contests and strategizing the right contests to enter for you and know that not every contest is created equal to another.

Analyzing ThrowDown Tourney’s Top 20 Lineups

Lineups tying throughout the Throwdown tourney is not uncommon in MMA, actually it is a commonality.  Within the top 20 lineups, the highest owned fighter(s) were Cory Sandhagen, Glover Teixeira, Jack Hermansson, and Jim Miller who were all owned at 100% of the top 20 lineups.  Coming in at a high percentage of ownership amongst top 20 lineups was the Co-Main Event Champ, Greg Hardy at 84%.  As compared to the field, the top 20 lineups were 86.09% overweight on Miller, 70.49% overweight on Hermansson, 60.37% overweight on Teixeira, 57.79% overweight on Sandhagen, and 47.39% overweight on Hardy.  The other fighters that the top 20 field were overweight as compared to the tourney field were Gilbert Burns (33.97% overweight variance) and Takashi Sato (13.45% overweight variance)

We see a very similar dynamic across all DFS sports, no matter which sport it is, that picking your spots on one or two players or fighters to be contrarian on is THE most optimal lineup construction methodology.  Going full contrarian at more than that will lead to the least optimal lineup construction.  If you read my NFL Shark Autopsy Report articles, you were able to see over the course of the 2018 – 2019 NFL season that this ideology held true at a very high percentage of the time within the top 10 scoring lineups in the Milly Maker contest.

Tourney Winner’s Total Number of Lineups

It never ceases to amaze me that many casual players across the DFS industry believe that the only way to win the top prize in the big contest tournaments is to max enter the contests with the hope that one of those lineups will hit “The Nutz”.  I am here, as I was during the NFL season to tell you, you are DEAD WRONG!  Of the 13 DFS players that tied for first place for the top scoring lineup, 30.76% max entered the contest.  In fact of the 13 tying lineups, 53.85% of them entered less than 15 lineups.  If you look back at the UFC 236 top 20 scoring lineups in the ThrowDown, 60% of those DFS players that scored in the top 20 entered less than 15 lineups and as equally impressive, 35% of the top 20 scoring lineups in UFC 236 ThrowDown entered a single bullet in the contest.  So, if you want to keep saying that you have to max enter the contest to win or place high in these top heavy huge payout and field contests, you’d just be wrong!

Now does max entering the big tournaments lower your overall variance amongst the field and set you up in a position for one of the 150 lineups to hit “The Nutz”, absolutely, but that is the mathematics of it isn’t it!

Analyzing DFS Pros Fighter Usage

The top 20 were overweight on the following fighters: Cory Sandhagen, Glover Teixeira, Jack Hermansson, and Jim Miller who were all owned at 100% of the top 20 lineups.  So, how did the DFS Pros’ fighter usage stack up?  The Shark Autopsy Report analyzes some of the top DFS Pros in the MMA ranks to determine where the spots (fighters) they placed their highest amount of ownership upon and the fighters they faded (minimal to no usage).  Of the DFS Pros’ lineups we’ll be looking at are BDHolla89 and Moklovin.  BDHolla89 is the number 1 ranked overall MMA player per RotoGrinders and Moklovin is 2nd ranked overall MMA player.  Additionally, we’ll be looking at ChiefST and BigMarley3 lineups.  ChiefST is currently ranked 8th overall per RotoGrinders MMA rankings and BigMarley3 is currently ranked 15th overall per RotoGrinders MMA rankings.  Additional notes about ChiefST and BigMarley3, they are MMA coaches for the DFSArmy and when you become a DFSArmy VIP Member, you will have access to them as MMA coaches for valuable lineup construction and fighter information that you would not get anywhere else in the industry!  Additionally, BigMarley3 is MMA Expert for CBS Sports and SportsLine, winner of the coveted MMA ToutMaster, and is one of, if not, the top MMA bettor in the industry.  ChiefST and BigMarley3 have qualified for the coveted DraftKings Knockout King Qualifier contest and have multiple first place large field GPP contest wins.  It pays to have coaches like these paving the way for you!

Looking at BDHolla89 and Moklovin fighter usage and lineups, we can get an idea of the fighters they used as shown below.  Let’s see their ownership of the Throwdown field’s highest owned fighters (Max Holloway and Jalin Turner), as well as the 2 highest owned fighters in the top 20 lineups (Israel Adesanya and Dustin Poirer) to get a sense of how much valuation they place on those two fighters.

As you can see in the above diagrams, BDHolla89 utilized Cory Sandhagen in 59% of his lineups which he was overweight on the tourney field by 17%.  BDHolla89 was overweight on the field by 20% in his utilization of Glover Teixeira in 59% of his lineups.  BDHolla89 was underweight on the field by -30% in his utilization of Jack Hermansson in 0% of his lineups.  BDHolla89 was underweight on the field by -14% in his utilization of Jim Miller in 0% of his lineups.  BDHolla89 took a stand in his ownership for the UFC Ft. Lauderdale slate, with his highest owned fighters centering around Jacare Souza at 56%, Cory Sandhagen at 59.33%, Glover Teixeira at 59.33%, Greg Hardy at 54.67%, Augusto Sakai at 54.67%, and Gilbert Burns at 50%.

Moklovin was 12% underweight as compared to the field in his Cory Sandhagen ownership, owning Sandhagen in 31% of his lineups.  Moklovin was also 6% underweight as compared to the field in his Glover Teixeira ownership, owning Teixeira in 34% of his lineups.  Moklovin viewed the Main Event fight as one that could possibly dud and not make the tournament winning lineup, as he was underweight to the Main Event fighters as compared to the field by a total of 37%, which is significantly underweight as compared to the field.  Moklovin was 5% overweight as compared to the field in his Jim Miller ownership, owning Miller in 19% of his lineups.  The Main Event fighter ownership in the ThrowDown tourney totaled 80.1%, both BDHolla89 and Moklovin’s ownership of the Main Event fighters was significantly less than the field and that ultimately doomed their lineups in the ThrowDown contest.  It’s talked about at great lengths in the industry that to win a large field GPP contest, you must take stands on certain players or fighters on a slate.  BDHolla89 and Moklovin took the stand of lower ownership in the Main Event with the hopes that it’d pay off and 80.1% of lineups would fade away into the ether of the slate.  That will sometimes work out and sometimes it won’t.

Side-by-Side Comparison of DFS Pros Fighter Usage

BDHolla89 faded (0-3 total lineups where a fighter was used) ten fighters.  Moklovin only faded (0-3 total lineups where a fighter was used) one fighter, thereby his ownership was more evenly spread out across all of the fighters on the slate, taking less of a stand on any one fighter than BDHolla89.

DFSArmy’s Coaches Fighter Usage

ChiefST placed huge significance on his Glover Teixeira and Jacare Souza at 68.75% and 65.63% ownership respectively (that’s basically ALL-IN).  ChiefST also had significant ownership in Gilbert Burns at 59.38% and Jason Gonzalez at 50%.  ChiefST hedged his Souza ownership with 25% ownership in Hermansson, thus ChiefST placed a massive emphasis on the Main Event with a total ownership in the Main Event fight of 90.63%.  The fighter that ChiefST was the most underweight on was Greg Hardy, his 9.38% ownership was 27.24% lower than the field.

On the slate, BigMarley3 had a great deal of ownership in Sandhagen at 63.77% and Greg Hardy at 60.87%, these were his highest fighters on the card.  Followed up by Roosevelt Roberts at 55.07%.  BigMarley3 had reverse ownership in the Main Event as compared to BDHolla89, Moklovin and ChiefST.  They felt Souze was going to win the fight, whereas BigMarley3 played Game Theory and reversed his ownership in the Main Event off of the favorite and onto the dog.  His 79.71% ownership in the Main Event fight was over half on Jack Hermasson at 43.48%.

To conclude this installment of the Shark Autopsy Report, the DFS Army was started based on the concept that brings high-level tools, projections, and information to average players would allow them to compete on a level playing field with the DFS pros that have been dominating the industry for years. Check out our full Wall of Wins to see countless other screenshots from regular players utilizing DFS Army tools and advice to take down 6 figure prizes on a regular basis. Sign up as a DFS Army VIP today to take your game to the next level and start competing like a pro.