Every week on the PGA Tour a new course means a new set of challenges. This article will examine the course being played and give specific insight on some keys for the week that other previews may be overlooking. This article will also breakdown players who stand out on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Cash Game and GPP formats. Finally, I will be reviewing my picks from before and going into a deeper dive on my Cash Game team in an attempt to better my own process while hopefully helping you with yours. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
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Review from last week
$11K and up (Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama)
At the beginning of the week I wrote up how for the first time in a while I likely wouldn’t be on Hideki because of the price increase and would instead be on Brooks as the class of the field at a course that sets up well for him. I more or less stayed true to this thought with 33% ownership on Brooks and 8% on Hideki. The 30% ownership allowed me to be slightly overweight (33 to 25) in the $5 and the 8% Hideki ownership was slightly below the 14.55% we saw in the $5. Overall, this worked out well as Brooks finished 4th and Hideki finished T23.
$10K and up (Jordan Spieth, Henrik Stenson, Marc Leishman)
Leishman was my favourite at start of the week and that remained the same until hearing a rumbling about his sore back making him miss a charity event, which left me scrambling. In all honestly, I was ready to be overweight on Leishman. I ultimately pivoted and ended up using Spieth/Stenson at double the field. With both playing well this worked out for me as well with top 30 performances and multiple birdies making for solid fantasy performances.
Rafa Cabreba Bello – DK: $8600
RCB was a cash lock at a great price, we also knew he would be chalky which was certainly true as RCB saw the 4th highest average ownership at just over 25%. Many teams for me had RCB as my second player as I decided to go over field average and use RCB in 33% of all lineups. This worked out alright as RCB finished 44th overall in fantasy points
Russell Knox – DK: $8000
Knox was another cash favourite for me and a player I was well overweight on in GPP’s with 20% to the 13% field average. Knox performed solidly and finished right in the middle of those who made the cut with a t43 finish.
Nick Taylor – DK: $7000
Taylor was another guy who I was overweight on with 14% ownership compared to 6% in GPP’s. Unforutnately, I also ended up on Taylor in cash games which was not the greatest pick in hindsight.
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Course Preview
In this section I will point out a few things that I find interesting about the course. If you’re a member at the Army you also have Josh’s article for more extensive reasoning on what the key stats are and our Domination Station showing what stats have been the most important historically.
- First and foremost, dfsupnorth has an incredible hole-by-hole preview that is an essential ready for anyone looking to play this week, I strongly recommend you start your research their.
- Bethpage Black is a looooooooong par 70 at just over 7450 yards.
- Due to the length driving distance will be a pivotal stat to me this week, of course a few guys who aren’t long off of the tee will slip through the cracks, but I really think if you don’t have the distance off of the tee this course will be too daunting and you won’t be able to give yourself enough solid chances for birdie over the course of 72 holes.
- As always Shots Gained: Approach is key to every tournament, I’ll be relying on our domination station for recent performance and long term form.
- As dfsupnorth mentioned, long/medium par fours get a bump as that’s about all there is at Bethpage.
- With lots of trouble throughout I do think you can bump Shots Gained: Approach more so than most weeks as the players that can save themselves par when they get into trouble will be the ones were watching come Sunday.
- That’s lots of stats I’m emphasizing more so than usual, which means a few are getting less emphasis. Par five scoring, for example, is something I wont be worrying about as much with only three instead of four and eagles only happening sparingly in 2016.
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Interesting Plays
In this section I will discuss plays that I like/dislike and guys that I find interesting for the week. Because this article comes out on a Monday this list can change, anyone I change my mind on will be discussed later in the week in our PGA coaching channel
Top Tier ($10K and up) – (Tiger Woods, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka)
I was wrong to be underweight on Tiger at the Masters, now that we see him as the top salary, at a course that I do think plays more to the other three names in the list, in an event where I expect to see higher Tiger ownership, I will very likely be underweight. Woods is still well within the upper half off of the tee for length, but I think the extra 10-20 yards the other three can consistently get on him will be critical this week, I also like the idea of saving a little salary and potentially getting lower ownership on the others. Among the other three, I think I lean Rory, Brooks and then DJ based on salaries – make sure to check back on the final notes.
$9k and up (Justin Rose, Francesco Molinari, Jon Rahm, Rickie Fowler, Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, Jason Day
This tier is always super interesting for Majors because it is still filled with any player who could realistically win with no one being overly surprised. My initial favourite is Rahm with two top tens in his last two appearances, a course I like him at and the game that I think should have him included in the $10k plus. It’s hard to write up these tiers on Monday as much can change and GPP plays are tough to call until we have a better idea of ownership. However, if I had to pick now in order from favourite to least I would say Rahm, Day, Fowler, Schauffelle, Rose, Molinari, Fleetwood, – I will definitely update the notes throughout the week.
Patrick Cantlay – DK: $8200
As always with a major there is tons of value within this $8k range as many guys who could easily be priced in the $9k have fallen. Among first look Cantlay is probably my favourite, in seven appearances this year Cantlay has missed the cut two times, he has also come top 15 in all other appearances, with a T9 and a T3 in his last two events Cantlay is coming in hot.
Others Standing Out To Me
Henrik Stenson – Underpriced
Gary Woodland – Bomber at low ownership
Si Woo Kim – Si Woo always
Guys Standing Out as potential underweight/Fades
Patrick Reed, Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia, Sung-Jae Im, Keith Mitchell, CH3
Cash Game Review
I will end each article going over my double-up cash game line-up for the week, breaking down my plays and reflecting for the following week
The Team (8.5-6.5) – Current Streak 2 Loss
Sungjae Im – MDF
Keith Mitchell – T59
Rafa Cabrerra-Bello – T53
Russell Knox – T43
Abraham Ancer – T59
Nick Taylor – MC
It was a frustrating week in cash as none of my guys were able to get going and take a serious shot at moving up the leaderboard. While many had that problem this week most were able to do so with a 5/6 instead of 4/6 making the cut, which was absolutely critical on a course where birdies were out there for the picking. I started my team locking in Knox/RCB which I still feel was the play. The next player who was essentially a lock was Abraham Ancer because of his price. The next decision, and the one that cost me was to go cheap on Nick Taylor, in an effort to afford two guys I felt had a shot at winning this week. This ultimately did not work out with Taylor missing the cut and Mitchell/Im not performing to the standard we have seen this week.
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