Every week on the PGA Tour a new course means a new set of challenges. This article will examine the course being played and give specific insight on some keys for the week that other previews may be overlooking. This article will also breakdown players who stand out on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Cash Game and GPP formats. Finally, I will be reviewing my picks from before and going into a deeper dive on my Cash Game team in an attempt to better my own process while hopefully helping you with yours. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
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Review from last week
Rory McIlroy – DK: $11800
I ended up heavily on Rory using him in 30% of GPP’s. It looked like ownership would end up right around 20% and I wanted to be a little bit above field average. Rory was in contention throughout the week, but a +2 Sunday saw him fall a little bit down the leaderboard into an eventual T8 position.
$10K and up (Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama)
I could not have done worse in this group as I ended up overweight on Day and Matsuyama while being underweight on Rickie and Justin Rose. Luckily, neither Day or Hideki missed the cut and were still able to put up some points for me – but the T24 and T31 finishes did not look great compared to the 3rd and T4 of Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler.
$9K and up (Sergio Garcia, Webb Simpson, Paul Casey, Tony Finau, Phil Mickelson, Gary Woodland)
While I did not do great in the $10K and up group I made up for it somewhat in this group as I was heavily overweight on Webb Simpson, overweight on Sergio and Paul Casey – underweight on Tony Finau and heavily underweight on Phil Mickelson and Gary Woodland. Webb was a core play for me and with so much of the ownership flocking to Finau I wanted to strategically pivot that to a few guys above and below hispricepoint.
Mid $8K – Jason Kokrak, Sungjae Im, Lucas Glover, Charles Howell, Byeong Hun An
For me, I ended up with Kokrak and Im out of this group for cash and was on just about everyone for GPP except Lucas Glover. Out of this group there were no real standout performances as Im/Glover tied for 31st, Kokrak finished near the bottom of all made cuts, CH3 missed the cut and An WD’d on Sunday midway through his round.
Keith Mitchell – DK: $7800
It seemed many others had a similar thought as Mitchell ended up with 16% ownership on the week. Mitchell was one of the players under $8k whose price did not make sense compared to recent performance.
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Course Preview
In this section I will point out a few things that I find interesting about the course. If you’re a member at the Army you also have Josh’s article for more extensive reasoning on what the key stats are and our Domination Station showing what stats have been the most important historically.
- Trinity Forest Golf Club is a par 71 playing at 7380 yards last season.
- One of the easiest courses played last year with a -1.582 strokes below par average
- The fairways are extremely wide allowing everyone to rip it without much worry off of the tee (bumping Driving Distance for me)
- The course also has the biggest greens on tour (bumping SG: Approach)
- Very easy par fives that you need to be scoring on the stay with the field (par five scoring gets a bit of a bump for me)
- The weather may come into play as they are calling for lots of rain, I think this puts even more emphasis on driving distance and a little bit of a bump to guys who have shown year in and year out an ability to outplay the competition in adverse conditions
- The filed itself is not great which should mean we’ll see ownership flock to a select few in the $8k and $7k range. I think for GPP purposes this is great as you can build unique lines where you differentiate from the 70th to 80th ranked player in the world while not having to sacrifice and go contrarian up top.
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Interesting Plays
In this section I will discuss plays that I like/dislike and guys that I find interesting for the week. Because this article comes out on a Monday this list can change, anyone I change my mind on will be discussed later in the week in our PGA coaching channel
$11K and up (Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama)
Hideki joins Brooks in the top tier this week and I am a little surprised by that fact. Matsuyama has been solid in 2019 with his worst performance being a T51 in 10 events, however, he has struggled to finish at the top of a leaderboard and only has one top five in this stretch. I have been on Hideki more or less every week as his salary has started to rise, however, now that he is above $11k it seems hard to justify him at this price. For any elite player, if we don’t expect ownership I like to be on them, but with so few options in a less than stellar field I still think he likely carries ownership. Brooks has had an up and down season but has now come top 2 in two of his last four appearances and sets up great for this course in his first appearance. Once again it looks like we have another week where I will likely be overweight on the highest salary.
$10K and up (Jordan Spieth, Henrik Stenson, Marc Leishman)
Three guys that based on what we have seen this year is surprising to see them all priced this high, albeit in a weak field. Out of this group my favourite is Leishman on first look for the savings and just like Hideki, I find it hard to think about using such a high % of salary on a guy not playing his greatest who isn’t named DJ or Rory.
Rafa Cabreba Bello – DK: $8600
I imagine at this price we should see RCB chalk for the week. The Spaniard had been solid as of late and is coming into the event off of a T16 finish at the RBC Heritage. While not being the ideal course fit I do think in a weak field at this price RCB makes for a terrific cash game pick and an interesting player in GPP. Do you load up and go overweight, do you match the field and differentiate elsewhere or do you pivot off and hope for a missed cut? I’ll have more later on in the week about my final decision personally.
Russell Knox – DK: $8000
Up until his missed cut at the Heritage Knox was playing terrific golf and was a steady cut maker for all who were rostering him. Knox’s missed cut was not a blow-up, and I am more than comfortable going back to him at this event with this field.
Nick Taylor – DK: $7000
Taylor has quietly been playing solid golf as of late with eight straight made cuts. While not the greatest course fit I do think with the field he is relatively underpriced. I do think because its Nick Taylor the ownership won’t necessarily be through the roof in GPP’s as well and I think he also makes for a great play in that format.
Cash Game Review
I will end each article going over my double-up cash game line-up for the week, breaking down my plays and reflecting for the following week
The Team (8.5-5.5) – Current Streak 2 Wins
Tony Finau – T60
Jason Kokrak – 69
Sungjae Im – T31
Zach Johnson – MC
Keith Mitchell – T8
Joel Dahman – T2
In a week with a very low 6/6 I was able to finish with a lineup in the top 5% of the field, mainly due to a great performance by Joel Dahman. I started my team like many others this week – locking in Tony Finau and Jason Kokrak, both of whom made the cut but didn’t do much. After, I had a short list of guys and started filling in the pieces, I put in Keith Mitchell and then had a few different options. I ultimately ended on a more balanced approach – the thought occurred to put in Hadwin and Dahmen but it left me just short of Paul Casey and I was not too thrilled with keeping hundreds on the table. Regardless, I landed on Dahmen, felt Im gave upside in a group of semi-reliable players and landed on ZJ with the final pick.
Other DFS Army PGA Golf Tools and Articles
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