I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast, and I’m a new contributor to the DFS Army this season. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day, you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.

Daily Umpire Impact

We have an 8 game main slate with a likely PPD at Coors Field.

We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”

Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.

Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.

“Hit Mitts”

There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.

“Box Callers”

On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.

The Squeeze

(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)

(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)

BOS@BAL Chris Sale (L)/Andrew Cashner (R)

Mike Muchlinski 16.28 K/9 6.39 BB/9 .251 AVG 9.35 R/9

Muchlinski has a fair zone on the edges and should have little impact on this ballgame with Sale’s swing and miss filth. We’ve seen his velo range from 97 to 92 this month, so when you pay up hope he’s on the high side, but either way he’s probably worth the investment. Play this game exactly as planned.

MIN@TOR Kyle Gibson (R)/Trent Thornton (R)

Phil Cuzzi 16.9 K/9 6.23 BB/9 .248 AVG 8.45 R/9

Cuzzi shows his inconsistencies, but the one tendency that he sticks to is the expansion of the edges especially as the game progresses. Whichever arm can establish the fastball away early will get the benefit of the corner all game. We’ve seen Cuzzi go as wide as 6-7 inches off the dish, so it’s just a matter if these arms can take advantage of it. Thornton’s command has been spotty up to this point, so Gibson is likely the main benefactor tonight.

LAA@DET Tyler Skaggs (L)/Matthew Boyd (L)

Mark Wegner 15.74 K/9 7.18 BB/9 .262 AVG 10.6 R/9

This is an unfortunate pairing for Skaggs whose recent statcast data is the best we’ve seen from him in a while. This would be a spot I’d increase my exposure to by a high % if we had a neutral or a pitcher’s umpire. Wegner is too tight overall and averages about 4 or 5 less strikes per game than the average ump. Still, the Tigers have K’d enough for me to use Skaggs and his big breaker tonight. I’ll be over the field with him, but I won’t go over 20% with Wegner behind the plate. The Angels don’t strikeout enough for me to use Boyd at his salary and the Angels are a contrarian option, but Boyd has been able to limit real damage off of him.

KC@HOU Jorge Lopez (R)/Brad Peacock (R)

Brian Knight 16.79 K/9 6.62 BB/9 .267 AVG 10.29 R/9

Knight has a fair zone, but favors the right side of the plate. This shouldn’t impact the game much overall. Peacock would benefit more from a low zone with his slider, but this isn’t a spot I want exposure to on the mound. Stick to the bats here.

CIN@OAK Sonny Gray (R)/Brett Anderson (L)

Jeff Kellogg 16.02 K/9 6.96 BB/9 .258 AVG 9.3 R/9

Kellog favors the left side of the plate, but has a tight zone on the other edges. This should be a benefit to the Reds righties who won’t be challenged often inside against Anderson. Consider them as a contrarian option, but otherwise, play this game straight up with the bats you like from either side.

ATL@LAD Mike Foltynewicz (R)/Clayton Kershaw (L)

Will Little 16.85 K/9 6.58 BB/9 .247 AVG 8.52 R/9

With Little we can expect a larger than average zone, but nothing too extreme. He actually gets a little tight on the left side of the plate. There is a small benefit to the left-handed bats here. Overall, I’d play this game exactly as planned.

MLB “Daily Umpire Impact” Advice for DFS DraftKings/FanDuel/Yahoo May 8th