What an incredible week. On Wednesday and Thursday, I took down 5 large tournaments on both DraftKings and FanDuel for a collective 24K profit! I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day, you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.

Daily Umpire Impact

Today my focus is on the early slate. DraftKings features a 10 game slate and FanDuel is split into one very early and one early slate. We have no real PPD threats today.

We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”

Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.

Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.

“Hit Mitts”

There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.

“Box Callers”

On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.

The Squeeze

(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)

(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)

CIN@CHC Tyler Mahle (R)/Yu Darvish (R)

Jeremie Rehak 17.37 K/9 5.87 BB/9 .237 AVG 7.28 R/9 (Only 13 Game Sample Size)

Rehak has a very small sample, so we don’t have a full picture of what his zone is like. He has shown some early inconsistency, but overall he has favored the arms and given the edges. I would approach this as neutral, and the wind blowing out in Wrigley is the most important factor in this game so don’t let an unestablished rookie umpire dissuade you from stacking any bats that you like here. The Cubs power bats are going to be a focus in my single entry lineups this afternoon.

TB@CLE Charlie Morton (R)/Carlos Carrasco (R)

Andy Fletcher 15.77 K/9 6.8 BB/9 .262 AVG 9.72 R/9

Fletcher is a top 5 hitter’s ump, and while he can be inconsistent at times, this makes it tough to trust either power arm here. The squeeze could be on in this game and I like using some one-off power from both sides.

CWS@MIN Manny Banuelos (L)/Kyle Gibson (R)

Larry Vanover 16.60 K/9 7.18 BB/9 .252 AVG 9.27 R/9

Vanover calls the away strike to both sides of the plate and should grade out as a true neutral ump today.

ARI@SF Taylor Clarke (R)/Andrew Suarez (L)

Mark Ripperger 16.94 K/9 5.98 BB/9 .249 AVG 8.76 R/9

Ripperger tends to give the away strike to lefties much more than he does to righties. Ripperger is pretty fair on the other edges and doesn’t miss many strikes either. Overall, this is a good pitcher’s ump that might not be much of a boost to either arm facing mostly right handed bats. Still, the park upgrade is the target here and I don’t mind taking a shot with Clarke in tournaments. If Kevin Cron is in the lineup for the DBacks I will consider him as a top value one-off for power.

MIA@WAS Sandy Alcantara (R)/Patrick Corbin (L)

Tim Timmons 16.98 K/9 6.52 BB/9 .252 AVG 9.56 R/9

Timmons has a tight zone on the corners with a little expansion on the lower third. He’s more likely to give the low strike than anywhere else. Overall, he’s consistent with his box calling style on the edges. This shouldn’t be too much of a problem for Corbin who should miss enough bats to minimize any negative impact on the corners. This is a fine umpire for Corbin overall and confirms him as a top option today.

PHI@MIL Jake Arrieta (R)/Jhoulys Chacin (R)

Mike Estabrook 17.81 K/9 5.69 BB/9 .238 AVG 8.28 R/9

Estabrook favors the right side of the plate, especially with RHBs. He will give that away strike on righties as far as 4-6 inches off the plate. It’s a better upgrade for Chacin facing a majority of righties than it is for Arrieta against the Brewers powerful lefties. Still, Miller Park is not a place I like to chase points on the mound unless it’s a high upside play, which Chacin and Arrieta are not. Estabrook will keep me off some of the righties in this game, but the lefties are still great plays on both sides.

SEA@OAK Yusei Kikuchi (L)/Mike Fiers (R)

Lance Barrett 16.89 K/9 5.9 BB/9 .245 AVG 8.86 R/9

Barrett has an inconsistent zone, but he slightly favors the right side of the plate and he will give the away strike. I expect there to be a few missed calls overall and the outcome should be neutral with a slight edge for arms that already get the park factor upgrade. Kikuchi is used to working with smaller zones in Japan, so this wide zone away to righties should only benefit him. He is in play for tournaments for me, especially if we get more than two lefties in the A’s lineup.

NYY@KC J.A. Happ (L)/Jakob Junis (R)

Ramon DeJesus 16.56 K/9 6.41 BB/9 .267 AVG 10.07 R/9

DeJesus has a fair zone and earns his neutral grade. Play this game exactly as planned with stacks in play on both sides.

DET@NYM Ryan Carpenter (L)/Jason Vargas (L)

Marty Foster 16.98 K/9 6.1 BB/9 .246 AVG 8.91 R/9

Marty favors the left side of the plate, but it won’t help these lefties who have no velocity to challenge righties inside. Play this game exactly as planned.

MLB “Daily Umpire Impact” Advice for DFS DraftKings/FanDuel/Yahoo May 25th