It’s PGA Championship Week and if you want to load up on studs in your Milly Maker lineup you need to find some bargain values to afford them!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year for DFS golf with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Tuesday Nights, and our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need!
It’s time for Glory’s 2nd Shot! (Think they’ll go with that?) the PGA Championship! This year’s PGA Championship moves from August to May as the tour has tried to condense the schedule to be done with meaningful tournaments before the NFL Season starts. The PGA Championship this year is held at the fabled Bethpage Black. The municipal course in Bethpage State Park has held two US Opens and two other PGA tour events in the last 20 years and is known for one thing, being incredibly long. We have you covered this year with everything you need to know about Bethpage Black, the Field, the Weather, and anything else you can possibly want! We also have a VIP Swag contest with added prizes for our VIPs, but you need to subscribe to get into that!
Everything PGA related is OPEN TO THE PUBLIC!!! Check out all of our tools, the research station, articles, and coaches notes here —-> DFS Army PGA Content
With the Draftkings Milly Maker and Fanduel Mega Eagle on the horizon you likely are already building lineups and noticing that while the pricing is fairly soft, you still need to find some value plays to let you afford the studs you want in your lineup. Have no fear, I’m here to help you identify the best bargains that can help you find a big win on Sunday. While there are tons of cheap options, and some that will be fairly popular, its likely to be the diamond in the rough that sneaks out a top ten finish to get you climbing the leaderboard on Sunday. I call these players Five Finger Discounts because they are a steal at their price and ownership!
Have you played Monkey Knife Fight yet? The props are a ton of fun! And if you sign up through here you can get a FREE Month of DFS Army VIP membership!
Get a free month of VIP Now!
What’s a Five Finger Discount?
If you’re not familiar with the term “Five Finger Discount” it essentially means to steal something. Using your “Five Fingers” to get a “discount” on something. In DFS Golf I consider “Five Finger Discount” players to be guys that are cheap and low owned, or ‘discounted’. Obviously just being cheap and low owned isn’t enough, they need to provide some value too!
There are a couple of rules that I use for my Five Finger Discount Players:
- The player must come in under $7300 on Draftkings. This is what I would consider a ‘bargain’ price, especially during a major with soft pricing
- The player must come in under 8% owned. There will be lots of players down here like Jhonnatan Vegas and former champ Lucas Glover who will be very popular (12% or more in ownership), those are easy guys to identify, I want to help you find that low owned play that really gives you leverage on the field.
And that’s it, typically I also like to look for players that have winning upside, but in a major, especially one with a relatively high 6/6 percentage (due to the 20 PGA professionals in the field) I don’t think you necessarily need that. First and foremost they have to make the cut, anything after that is gravy for the most part, but they do need some upside if you want to take down a GPP.
Want to play for some DFS Army Swag this week!? Join our contest here for a chance to win a swag bag and bragging rights over me!
Five Finger Discount Players:
Note: All of these players are for GPP only. Five Finger Discounts are not SAFE by any means, just like the real thing.
Also, an important piece here is that many of the ‘lesser known’ Euros are priced at essentially minimum. TONS of value over there and you can build some crazy lineups. In fact, all of our Five Finger Discounts this week use Euros on a regular basis.
Thomas Pieters: DK $7100/FD $8700
Projected Ownership: 7%-9%
Pieters will be one of the 10 longest players in the field this week at a course that is soaked and won’t see balls getting much run in the fairway. Sounds like an excellent combination to me! I’ve seen some people comparing this course to Riviera which I can see. Long, poa annua greens, tree lined. The big difference is gettable par 5’s and Riviera has quite a few more approach shots in that 150y-175y range where Bethpage is heavier on the over 200y approach shots. Pieters was 7th there in 2017. The course has also drawn comparables (though that’s really tough to do) to Firestone where Pieters was 4th in 2017.
Pieters was 23rd last week at the Byron Nelson after a tough opening round left him chasing all week. Only concern was that his irons were a bit off last week, but on a course like this where the bigger emphasis will be placed on how close you are to the pin, I think I can get over it. He tends to crush the long par 3’s, long par 4’s, short par 5’s, and long par 5’s which tells me he’s not only long off the tee, but very comfortable with a longer iron in his hand. Should bode well here.
Pieters tends to show up at majors as well. He’s popped at the Masters finishing 4th a few years back and was 8th at last year’s PGA Championship. While a much different course than Bellerive I think we see a similar type of leaderboard here which could include the Danish Bomber. Huge upside, low floor, great GPP play!
Check out my Hole by Hole breakdown of Bethpage Black here —> Bethpage Black Course Preview
Jorge Campillo: DK $6900/FD $7100
Projected Ownership: 6%-8%
Another European on this list and you’ll start to see a theme. Both sites (though Fanduel is the worst) fail to price these Europeans up to their requisite skill level. It’s a big ask for them to come over and compete on this side of the pond, especially at a major, but I think with the pricing it makes a ton of sense to load up on them, fade the middle tier of golfers, and jam some studs in your lineups.
All that aside, you won’t find another golfer on the planet as hot as Jorge Campillo is right now. Check out his recent form: 3rd, 1st, 3rd, T20, 2nd, 2nd, 34th. What?! That’s insane. The last time he missed the cut was back in February and since then he’s finished in the top 5 over 70% of the time! The 32-year-old missed the cut on his first trip across the pond to play in this event last summer but was in poor form, going back to back missed cuts at the Open Championship and PGA.
Campillo is long and accurate off the tee (303 yds average and 64% of fairways) which should benefit him here. He also is top 20 on the Euro tour in greens in regulation and an excellent putter (though poa isn’t a very common surface in Europe, in fact, most course superintendents view it as a weed). Overall, I think we can safely cast our lots with Jorge this week and while it would be great to see him contend, I think a top 25 finish is more likely. And at this price that will absolutely smash value.
Key Stats to look for this week – Driving Distance, Birdies Gained, Par 5 Scoring Long Par 4 Scoring, Long Par 3 Scoring, SG: Around the Green, and Projected Course Score.
You can find all of these key stats in our DFS Army research station accessible ONLY for our VIPs usually, but this week it is FREE and OPEN to the public!
–> PGA Research Station <–
Rafa Cabrera Bello: DK $7300/FD $9200
Projected Ownership: 7%-9%
While he could end up being popular as the week progresses, right now it looks like all of the ownership in this range is going to go guys like Keith Mitchell and former champ here Lucas Glover. Rafa is about as steady as they come. He doesn’t pound it off the tee, but he’s long enough and he’s extremely accurate, which we obviously want here. As players are heading through their press conferences today we are seeing most of them talk about how important hitting the fairway here is with the rough being pretty lush because of the rain the course has seen. It’s not US Open rough, but it’s going to be difficult to hold these greens, especially the ones elevated above the fairway from the rough.
Rafa is the rare Euro that is actually better on Poa Annua greens than any other surface. He gains strokes in difficult rounds and is one of the best wind players in the world. It looks like Friday will be a pretty gusty day, making Rafa an even better play.
Rafa was tenth at last years PGA and has made 10 of his last 12 cuts at majors including two top 10’s. As of late, he’s made 9 of 10 cuts on the PGA tour with 7 top 30 finishes. He’s just extremely consistent. He’s game transfers well to all sorts of courses, and at $7300 I think he brings enough upside here (though if you want to play him in Cash this week I can absolutely get on board), that he makes a great GPP play at low ownership.
Ross Fisher: DK $6500/FD $7100
Projected Ownership: 3%-5%
I’ve spent more money on Ross Fisher over the years than maybe any other golfer, especially at majors, and I wrote him off for a long time, but here we are, it’s the PGA Championship and I’m falling in love with him again.
Fisher has been on the radar since 2009 when he had the lowest score of anyone who made the cut all four majors that year. He finished 5th that year at the 2009 US Open and was right on the winner’s heels until a three-putt bogey on the 17th hole in the final round. That US Open was held at…Bethpage Black. Since 2009 though, Fisher has been pretty up and down. He struggled for a while and in 2013 didn’t even tee it up in a major, while last year he made the cut in 3 of 4 majors. His game has really started to come back to him though in 2019, having three top 15 finishes, including a 13th at last weeks British Masters.
The best part of Fisher’s game is his length. He absolutely hammers the ball. He has a wind-aided 413-yard drive in his career. He averages 308 yards off the tee. He’s also 2nd in SG: Approach this year on the European tour. A good combination for Bethpage Black.
David Lipsky: DK $6500/FD $7900
Projected Ownership: 1%-3%
Lipsky, the young American has taken the road less traveled as a PGA tour professional. He grew up in California and didn’t start golfing until the age of 10 (California = Poa Greens), and played his college golf at Northwestern in Chicago (Cold, Windy weather), before heading over to the Asian Tour where he was 11th in the Order of Merit as a rookie. He then played the Web for a year, struggled. went back to the Asian tour and won essentially right away at the Omega European Masters (At Crans Sur, a fairly long par 70). Since then he’s been grinding on the European tour, and playing in all the WGC events he can.
Lipsky has back to back top 5’s on the European Tour his last two times out and finished 10th at the WGC-Mexico (poa greens, long course). He averages just a titch under 300 yards off the tee, hits around 60% of fairways, and is an excellent scrambler. All of these combined with some of the narratives around him, make him an excellent play this week in my opinion at very low ownership. How he reacts in only his second major will be hard to predict, but this isn’t someone who is fresh, he’s spent the last 8 years grinding it out, played in 8 WGC events, and is a proven winner. Look for him come Sunday.
*** Not a Beat the Bookie VIP yet?! ***
These guys at ‘Beat the Bookie’ are crushing it on the daily and you’re gonna want in! Tell em’ UPNORTH sent ya and you’ll get 10% off for life!
Want to try a free month of DFS Army VIP Membership? See How
Final Thoughts:
Second Major of the year! I always caution to be smart about your bankroll, but with a Major, let it slide a little bit and let’s have some fun! There are tons of great contests with really solid payout structures. You don’t have to play the Milly Maker! The only lineups I’ll have in there are from contest tickets I won. There are MUCH better contests elsewhere if you want to have a positive ROI.
Remember to check out all of our FREE content this week and if you like what you see sign up to become a VIP and get this every week for the rest of the season, PLUS all of our other sports, all for one low price! If you aren’t a VIP yet, use code UPNORTH for 20% your first month!
Don’t forget our SWAG Contest with added prize pool for VIPs only!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!