Hello again everyone! nillyJay here – some of you may already know me; I’m a coach/contributor inside the DFS Army and my main focuses are NASCAR and MLB. If you’re not already, you can find and follow me on Twitter, or, for DFS Army members, in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
As always, if you aren’t familiar with my content, be sure to check out these articles to get up to speed: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets.
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
Because I created the carnage rating system, it only makes sense that I would start there when looking at a new slate. Let’s do just that:
It’s not too surprising that Strasburg leads the way, but it’s a little concerning that the fourth place pitcher, Richards, sports a 5.29 SIERA. That tells me this slate might be a little difficult for our pitchers, so it would be a good idea to pay up for a safer matchup. Gausman has looked pretty good this year and gets the Giants, while our mystery man is pretty close to the top. I don’t think he’ll see a whole lot of ownership, but he might be able to compete with Strasburg at a much lower price point.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the day:
I can’t give away too much on this small slate, but here are a couple to look at. The Yankees won’t surprise anybody, but the Pirates could be a good target today. As always, we can use the classic batter sheet, coaches notes, or starting lineups page to find our favorite individual targets.
Early games
Washington Nationals at New York Mets
We’ll kick this one off with our ace, Strasburg, who will take on Steven Matz and the Mets. All eyes will be on Strasburg here, but don’t overlook Matz, as he’s certainly capable of a decent outing here (and no, he’s not the mystery man…keep guessing!). I can’t say I’m in love with any of the batters in this one, but maybe a one-off here or there could pay off. I’m much more interested in the pitchers here.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Turner, Kendrick
GPP note – Not the best matchup with Matz, so stack with care
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Cano, McNeil
GPP note – Worst matchup on the board, so I would go light, fade, or stack like crazy and hope for the best (I’d prefer the second option)
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Next up is our daily home run derby at Camden Yards, where the Yankees will get another pitcher that can quickly give up a 5+ run lead before taking a first-inning exit to the showers. I don’t think I need to go into a whole lot of detail here, as we already know what to expect.
Yankees 5 star plays – Sanchez
Yankees 4 star plays – Everybody else on this team with a pulse
GPP note – Chalk bombs, ahoy!
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mancini, Villar, Davis??
GPP note – Difficult matchup against Tanaka, but you can still stack here if you think they are amped up enough to get to him. Mancini is my favorite of the bunch
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Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates
Next up is one of our other carnage targets today, as the Pirates will take on Senzatela and the Rockies. They haven’t seen him a whole lot, but he’s no stranger to allowing some hits, so look at the Pirates to provide some production. The Rockies will face Lyles, who has mostly good, but it is the Rockies, so this one could be a bit of a coin-flip. One side of that matchup could score pretty well, so it might not be a bad idea to grab some shares of both the Rockies and Lyles for GPP.
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon, Arenado
Rockies 4 star plays – Story, Dahl
GPP note – Iffy matchup against Lyles, but some stacks are certainly in play here
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Frazier, Polanco, Bell
GPP note – Solid matchup for the Pirates, so be sure to give them a look today (then play them after you look at them)
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Newer guy Weber will take the mound against Richard in his 2019 debut. If you can’t remember who he is, just look at his profile picture – you can’t forget that face. Anyway, it’s very difficult to predict how either one of them will do, as it’s basically opening day for them both. Both offenses are squarely in play here, as it’s never a bad idea to attack a pitcher in this situation.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Betts, Martinez (if he plays)
Red Sox 4 star plays – Bogaerts, Devers, Moreland, Chavis
GPP note – Don’t know what to expect from Richard, but full stacks are in play
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Sogard, Guerrero, Smoak
GPP note – Possible bullpen game against a not-so-great bullpen. Stack away!
Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers
Next up is our mystery man who will take on Richards and th…oh, just kidding! Boyd isn’t our guy today, though he has looked awfully good this year, so he’s definitely in the mix today. Richards has had a very up and down season, so it’s anybody’s guess as to what we’ll see out of him. I’m leaning more towards him having a good game since he’ll face the Tigers, but if he has one of those bad games, you’ll wish you had some Detroit stacks.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Anderson, Dean
GPP note – Not a very good matchup against Boyd, so I would grab a mini-stack and get out
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Goodrum, Castellanos
GPP note – Possibly a good spot for a lower-owned stack to go off, depending on which version of Richards shows up
Late games
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians
Moving on to our evening games, we’ll start with the Rays and the Indians. The Rays will be running a bullpen game here again, and the Indians will send out Plutko for his second assignment of the season. Like the previous game, it’s hard to know what to expect here, so having some shares of both offenses isn’t a terrible idea.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, Choi, Meadows
GPP note – Plutko looked good in his debut, but the Rays are pretty good too, so don’t be afraid to stack them
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Lindor, Santana, Ramirez
GPP note – Bullpen games kind of suck, but the Indians have some positive regression coming sooner or later (hint: stack them)
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros
And finally, our showdown game will feature another fresh pitcher, Martin, who will host Giolito and the White Sox one last time before they head out of town. It’s hard to say either pitcher really has a big advantage here. On one hand, we haven’t really seen enough of Martin to know what he’s all about. On the other hand, Giolito has looked really good, but it’s the Astros, so nobody is really safe against them. I think you can still take some shots with him in GPP in case he finds the Astros sleeping, but I’d hedge that bet if at all possible.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Alonso, Abreu, Moncada
GPP note – A bit of an unknown matchup, but these guys can be dangerous when they want to be, so feel free to grab some shares
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman, Brantley, Reddick, Correa
GPP note – Giolito has looked great, but that doesn’t mean we can’t stack here. He’s eventually going to get blown up, and the Astros are certainly up to the task
Tiers!
Like I mentioned earlier, I provide a tiers breakdown for our members every day. I figured since I was running the show today that I would slide in a freebie. Let’s take a look at Tier 4:
Rizzo and Kendrick lead the way here, so I would look to one of them for your cash games today. Segura and Mancini make interesting GPP options, as does Rodriguez with his .200 ISO against righties.
Closing thoughts
Thank you for joining me here today! I hope you found this article helpful with your research for today’s slate. I have some more GPP thoughts for you guys in the DFS Army, so be sure to check my channel and #mlb-news-and-notes this afternoon for those.
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