DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown Advice Strategy and Picks for Fanduel and Draftkings 5/19/2019

Hello again everyone!  nillyJay here – some of you may already know me; I’m a coach/contributor inside the DFS Army and my main focuses are NASCAR and MLB.  If you’re not already, you can find and follow me on Twitter, or, for DFS Army members, in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).

As always, if you aren’t familiar with my content, be sure to check out these articles to get up to speed: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets.

 

My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers

Because I created the carnage rating system, it only makes sense that I would start there when looking at a new slate.  Let’s do just that:


Nothing too surprising here, except maybe that Sale is first on the list, even facing Houston.  He’s definitely turned things around, but this will be the test to see if he’s truly there or not.  For cash games, going with somebody like Ryu or Syndergaard may be the safer option, but Sale and Morton definitely have some upside in these matchups, so don’t neglect them for GPP purposes.

Finding pitchers to attack

Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack.  Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the day:


We have several juicy targets here so I would look at these offenses to provide some production.  Folty had better hope he can get his rocky start to the year figured out quickly, or those Brewers are going to go bonkers.  For individual targets, we can use the classic batter sheet, coaches notes, or starting lineups page to pinpoint them.


Another NASCAR race, another DFS Army winner.  Congrats, larlew and youracnecream!

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

We’ll kick off this big slate with one of our high-tier pitchers facing off against a powerful, if a little inconsistent, Yankees offense.  The Rays will get a bullpen game here, so I’d look at the Rays having the upper hand in this one.

Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, Choi, Lowe, Meadows
GPP note – Bullpen games can be hit or miss, but this team can put up runs with the best of them

Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays
– Sanchez, Voit, Torres
GPP note
– Another tough matchup for the Yankees today against Morton.  Stacks may be limited again

Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies

Our second game features one of the offenses in a good spot, which would be the Phillies facing Freeland.  He’s been a pretty decent target this year, and with all of the big bats on this team, it could get ugly.

Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon, Arenado
GPP note – Tough matchup against Eickhoff, so stacks may be limited here

Phillies 5 star plays – Harper, Hoskins
Phillies 4 star plays
– McCutchen, Segura, Realmuto
GPP note
– Great matchup against Freeland.  Stack away!

Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox

Here’s the game we really want to see today!  We get Sale, one of (if not the) best pitchers in the league, facing off against the Astros, one of the best offenses in the league.  Somebody in this game is going to score a lot of fantasy points, but the trick will be figuring out who.

Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Springer, Bregman, Brantley
GPP note – Very difficult matchup against Sale, unless they can figure out a way to get to him

Red Sox 5 star plays – Martinez, Betts
Red Sox 4 star plays
– Bogaerts
GPP note
– Miley has looked pretty good too, so the Red Sox may be a bit limited here as well

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds

We get one of our first good cash options here, as Ryu will take on the Reds with his 2.89 carnage rating.  The Dodgers will take on another righty, Roark, so expect to see the big LAD lefties chalky again.

Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Pederson, Muncy, Verdugo, Seager
GPP note – Decent matchup against Roark, but this team can turn a decent matchup into a blow-up spot very quickly

Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays
– Votto, Senzel
GPP note
– Difficult matchup against Ryu who has looked sharp this season

Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians

The Indians didn’t do quite as much damage as I was hoping yesterday, but they’ll get another shot at it with another good matchup here.  The Orioles will have to face Bieber, who is always in play as a high-ceiling GPP target.

Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Smith Jr
GPP note – Tough matchup against Bieber, so stacking may not be the way to go here

Indians 5 star plays – Lindor
Indians 4 star plays
– Ramirez, Santana, Kipnis
GPP note
– Another good spot for the Indians, so hopefully they’ll make the most of it this time

New York Mets at Miami Marlins

Our second cash option shows up here, as Syndergaard will take on the lowly Marlins.  Look for him to have a very high ceiling in this matchup, as we know what happens when he gets to feast on a weaker offense.  Good spot for the Mets offense here, too.

Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – McNeil, Cano, Alonso
GPP note – Good spot for the Mets to go off

Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays
– none (Granderson?)
GPP note
– Difficult matchup against Syndergaard.  Contrarian stacks only

Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers

The A’s will get to face Soto here, and they’ll try to hit that 5+ implied total before the Tigers can change pitchers.  Look for them to be chalky today, but for good reason.  Fiers will face off against the Tigers, the team he played for last season.

Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Just about everybody.  Davis, Chapman, Semien, Piscotty, Olson
GPP note – Bombs away!

Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays
– Goodrum, Stewart
GPP note
– Fiers has been pretty decent this season and the Tigers don’t really have a scary lineup

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves

To be honest I was expecting a higher implied total out of this one, but here we are.  Folty, who hasn’t looked right at all this year, will face off against the Brewers, who will be pretty hungry today after losing in extra innings in walk-off fashion.  You know what to do here!

Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Moustakas, Gamel
GPP note – Potential blow-up spot.  Stack away

Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays
– Acuna, Freeman, Markakis
GPP note
– Bad matchup against Woodruff, but some one-offs or mini-stacks could still be put to use here

Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox

This one looks pretty average on the surface, so it could be a good place to get some lower-owned bats if you want to take some shots here in GPP.

Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero Jr, Smoak, Tellez
GPP note – Not the best matchup, but nobody will be on them either

White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays
– Anderson, Abreu, Moncada, Alonso
GPP note
– Much higher ceiling in this matchup than their implied total would lead you to believe

St Louis Cardinals at Texas Rangers

Another STL/TEX game, another high implied total.  Flaherty has been pretty good, but the same can’t be said for Smyly.  Look for there to be plenty of chalk in this game.

Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt, Carpenter
Cardinals 4 star plays – DeJong, Ozuna, Martinez, Molina, Fowler
GPP note – Blow-up spot for the Cardinals

Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays
– Gallo, Calhoun, Choo, Odor
GPP note
– Not quite as good of a spot as the Cardinals, but we know they’re capable of big games

Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels

My Royals take on the Angels again here, and I have to say, I don’t quite agree with Vegas on this one.  No, that’s not just me being a homer!  We’ll see how it plays out, but if the chalk busts in this one, you heard it here first.

Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Mondesi, Dozier
GPP note – Nobody plays my Royals, but this is a good spot for them

Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays
– Ohtani, Pujols, Calhoun
GPP note
– Probably will be a chalky stack

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks

We get two decent pitchers in this one so it may be a little calmer than what we saw last night (they did at least make good on the nice carnage rating they had).  I would look more at the pitchers in this one, but if you want some sneaky stacks, then look here for those too.

Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Posey, Duggar
GPP note – Not a very good matchup against Ray, so expect their ceiling to be limited

Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays
– Marte, Jones, Escobar, Walker
GPP note
– Better chance of going off than the Giants, and their implied total may keep their ownership lower than other teams

Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners

Welp, the Twins went bonkers last night, so expect to see some inflated ownership today.  They’ll face off against Kikuchi, somebody who has yet to get blown sky high.  Seattle will get Gibson, who has looked really good this year.  My thoughts?  This one will be a bit underwhelming, but we’ll see how it plays out.

Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Polanco, Cron
GPP note – Not the best matchup against Kikuchi, but will probably be popular anyway

Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays
– Vogelbach, Narvaez, Haniger
GPP note
– Sort of a tough matchup against Gibson here, so full stacks might not be in order

Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres

And finally, our hammer game of the day features a low total with two pitchers that are a bit hard to read right now.  Musgrove has had plenty of ups and downs already this year, while Quantrill hasn’t shown a ton in his two starts yet.  I think stacking this one up is fair game, and if you do, you may be the only one doing it.

Pirates 5 star plays -none
Pirates 4 star plays – Polanco, Bell, Frazier
GPP note – Decent spot for an under-owned team

Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays
– Hosmer, Machado
GPP note
– Musgrove can be really good or really bad, so plan accordingly

Tiers!

Like I mentioned earlier, I provide a tiers breakdown for our members every day.  I figured since I was running the show today that I would slide in a freebie.  Let’s take a look at Tier 6:

Lots of decent matchups here, but Goldschmidt stands well above everybody else, so I would to him for cash games.  Merrifield isn’t too far behind, and there are some other decent GPP choices too (Thames, for example).

Closing thoughts

Thank you for joining me here today!  I hope you found this article helpful with your research for today’s slate.  I have some more GPP thoughts for you guys in the DFS Army, so be sure to check my channel and #mlb-news-and-notes this afternoon for those.

If you like what you see here and want to experience everything we have to offer, I’d encourage you to consider joining up with us.  As you saw, we cover (and win!) all sports, not just the common ones.  Just remember to use promo code NILLY to save 20% off for the lifetime of your active membership, for the best deal in daily fantasy sports.  Until then, I hope you all have a great day!