Hello again everyone! nillyJay here – some of you may already know me; I’m a coach/contributor inside the DFS Army and my main focuses are NASCAR and MLB. If you’re not already, you can find and follow me on Twitter, or, for DFS Army members, in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
As always, if you aren’t familiar with my content, be sure to check out these articles to get up to speed: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets.
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
Because I created the carnage rating system, it only makes sense that I would start there when looking at a new slate. Let’s do just that:
Not too many surprises here, really. Any of them are cash/GPP viable, but there are some other options for DFS Army members to consider just below Sale.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the day:
There are some good targets here, especially that bottom one with a 7.66 carnage rating. I can all but guarantee they will go overlooked tonight! The other three are in good spots too, so be sure to look into getting some exposure to those offenses. As usual, we can use the classic batter sheet, coaches notes, or starting lineups page to find the individual targets.
Early slate
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
We’ll kick this one off with another divisional matchup, where Carrasco will face off against Banuelos. Vegas likes the Indians better in this one, but remember that these games can get a little funky, and the White Sox certainly know Carrasco pretty well. In other words, don’t be afraid to go contrarian here.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Lindor, Ramirez, Santana
GPP note – Good spot for them to go off, so stack away
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Moncada, Alonso, Anderson, Abreu
GPP note – Tough matchup, but they know Carrasco well. Contrarian stacks are in play
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
These teams got rained out yesterday, so they’ll look to take advantage of the extra rest day they inherited. The Yankees still have a good matchup, this time against Cashner, while the Orioles have a more difficult matchup against Happ. I feel the same way about this one that I did yesterday; look to the Yankees for fantasy production, and don’t get too carried away with your contrarian picks here.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Mancini, Smith Jr
GPP note – Not the best matchup, but they have seen Happ plenty, so some stacks are in play here
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Voit, Sanchez
GPP note – Cashner has been a good target this season, and the Yankees get the next crack at him
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
The Cubs are back in action here after having a day off, and they’ll face Roark and the Reds, who have been good at randomly having big games here recently. Hendricks has mostly been good, though he is susceptible to having a random bad day, so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities to see the Reds explode here again. If that happens, this one could be a fun afternoon shootout.
Cubs 5 star plays – Rizzo, Bryant
Cubs 4 star plays – Heyward, Baez, Schwarber, Contreras
GPP note – Blow-up spot for the Cubs, so stack away
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, Senzel, Winker
GPP note – The Reds have been showing some signs of life, so stacks here are in play
Main slate
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Syndergaard and Hellickson will kick off the main slate today, and they’ll both be looking to have a good rebound game here today. As usual, it’s not a bad idea to have some exposure to both sides of Syndergaard, as his ceiling tends to flip flop with the offense he’s facing. One side of this one will probably put up a good score, so covering both sides could give you a leg up.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Cano, McNeil, Conforto, Ramos (BvP)
GPP note – Decent matchup and there is some BvP at play here. Not likely to have much ownership
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Robles (both with BvP)
GPP note – Tough matchup. Contrarian stacks only
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
Round two of the Brew Crew vs Phillies will feature two pitchers who have held their own pretty well so far this season (especially Eickhoff), but they’ll have their work cut out for them today in this star-studded brawl. Like the previous game, there’s bound to be some big scoring here (be it from the pitchers or the offenses), so I would be sure to grab some exposure to this game where you see fit.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Moustakas, Cain, Thames, Shaw
GPP note – Eickhoff has looked sharp, but we know what this offense is capable of
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper, Hoskins
Phillies 4 star plays – McCutchen, Realmuto
GPP note – Not the best matchup for the Phillies, but some one-offs could pay off
Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins
Two of the sharpest and most consistent pitchers in all of baseball square off here, in a game that will most likely turn into a pitcher’s duel. As fun as those are to watch (to me, anyway), that means these two offenses are likely to have severely limited ceilings, so I think we can safely look elsewhere today. Both pitchers are squarely in play in all formats, however.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, Lowe
GPP note – Tough matchup against Smith. I would look at a one-off or look elsewhere
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Granderson, Anderson
GPP note – Tough matchup here too, and I don’t see full stacks paying off here either
Colorado Rockies at Boston Red Sox
Happy Chris Sale day! I’m not a Boston fan, but it’s good to see him back to his normal self because he’s just so fun to watch. The Rockies will get front-row seats to that show today, and seeing that they started with a 2.86 implied total, they may not enjoy the show as much as I will. Boston’s offense has been clicking, and they’ll take on Freeland who isn’t too shy about allowing some baserunners, so they make a fine target in all formats today.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon, Arenado, Story
GPP note – Sale is looking sharp again, so stack at your own risk
Red Sox 5 star plays – Betts, Martinez
Red Sox 4 star plays – Benintendi, Bogaerts, Chavis
GPP note – The Red Sox are rolling and Freeland isn’t the most difficult matchup, so get some exposure here
Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers
As if the Astros needed another great matchup, they get one here, so look to them to go bonkers again here today. Unless the entire team suddenly goes cold, there might not be much getting around them today. If you decide to fade them in GPP hoping they will, I would be sure to grab some exposure to them in cash, because they’re bound to be popular today.
Astros 5 star plays – Springer, Bregman
Astros 4 star plays – Brantley, Correa,
GPP note – Yet another great spot for this dangerous team to explode
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Castellanos, Goodrum
GPP note – Miley has looked mostly good, so the Tigers will probably have a limited ceiling here
St Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves
At first glance, this game doesn’t look too special, but I have a hunch that one of these teams will do some damage today. There’s a good chance that it’ll be the visiting Cardinals, as Folty hasn’t come around just yet, so attacking him while he’s still getting into a groove could pay off. The Braves have been a bit calm lately so I would keep them as a GPP option instead of cash.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt, Carpenter
Cardinals 4 star plays – DeJong, Martinez
GPP note – Good spot here against Folty who hasn’t quite got it figured out yet this season
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman, Acuna, Albies
GPP note – Tougher matchup for the Braves, so one-offs or mini-stacks may be better than trying to do full stacks
Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins
This is a very average-looking game at first glance, which is a little strange considering these two teams can go off at a moment’s notice. Both pitchers have looked good, but they’re certainly not dominant studs, so don’t be afraid to grab some stacks here just because Vegas isn’t in love with them today.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani, La Stella
GPP note – Only an average matchup here, so I’d look more at one-offs or mini-stacks
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Polanco, Rosario
GPP note – About the same kind of matchup as the Angels, but the Twins have a better chance of collectively going off
Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals
The Rangers come to town to take on my Royals, and they’ll first meet up with Duffy. He’s not quite “there” yet, but he’s started to grab some strikeouts, so he’s somewhat in play today as an SP2. The Royals will take on Miller, who isn’t a bad target to pick on, so hopefully they’ll go out and score some runs for me today!
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Andrus, Pence
GPP note – Duffy has been decent but is allowing some hits, so a case could be made for one-offs or full stacks
Royals 5 star plays – Mondesi, Merrifield
Royals 4 star plays – Gordon, Dozier
GPP note – Solid matchup for the KC offense
Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks
This game is a bit of the opposite of the LAA/MIN game, at least in my opinion it is. We have two good pitchers here, but the implied total here is a bit higher than I expected, so I can’t say I fully agree with Vegas on this one. Aside from a select few, there’s not a whole lot of BvP to love here either, so it’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Polanco, Bell, Frazier
GPP note – Not the best matchup against Weaver, so be careful with the stacks
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Peralta, Dyson, Escobar, Marte
GPP note – They went off last night, but Musgrove could limit them tonight
Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants
We finally get some action at Pitcher’s Paradise again tonight, though I think it will benefit the home team a bit more here than it will the visitors. The Giants look to roll out a bullpen game, which could really hurt the Blue Jays since they’ll get to cherry-pick matchups all night. Thornton has allowed plenty of baserunners this season, and seeing that he has one of the worst carnage ratings on the slate, that could spell disaster for him and lots of production for the Giants’ offense.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Sogard, Smoak
GPP note – Bullpen game at a pitcher’s park…not the best recipe for stacks
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Panik, Crawford
GPP note – Pretty good matchup here, and the Giants like to get the entire team involved when they go off, so you’ll want to stack them to take advantage of their good matchup
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Like the TBR/MIA game, this one looks to be another pitcher’s duel, and I can’t wait to see this one play out. Both pitchers have the capability of shutting down the opposing offense for 6 to 7 (or more) innings, so this might not be the best place to look for offensive production tonight. As such, both pitchers are absolutely in play here.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado
GPP note – Very limited ceiling facing Kershaw. Grab a contrarian one-off and/or move on
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Pederson, Muncy, Seager
GPP note – Very difficult matchup here too, so I wouldn’t get too carried away with full stacks
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
And finally, our hammer game will the the A’s and Mariners again, and both teams are on the “fun” side of the carnage report. Chapman and Healy both have homers off of their opposing pitchers, so they could be good places to start. I’d suggest taking a hard pass at either one of these starting pitchers, as their floors and ceilings are both probably going to be very low in this matchup.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Davis, Olson, Chapman, Semien, Piscotty
GPP note – Decent spot for the A’s to go off, so any sort of stack would be in play here
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Haniger, Encarnacion, Santana, Healy
GPP note – About the same as the A’s
Tiers!
Like I mentioned earlier, I provide a tiers breakdown for our members every day. I figured since I was running the show today that I would slide in a freebie. Let’s take a look at Tier 2:
For cash games, I would just roll out Bregman and not think too hard about it. For GPP, his teammate Brantley makes a solid option, as do those two Cubs.
The most interesting one here has to be Arenado, though. Yes, it’s Chris Sale, and attacking him when he’s in his elite form is no fun. However, as you can see, Arenado is smashing lefties right now (as he normally does), and he probably won’t have much ownership, so he’s definitely worth a look in GPPs today.
Closing thoughts
Thank you for joining me here today! I hope you found this article helpful with your research for today’s slate. I have some more GPP thoughts for you guys in the DFS Army, so be sure to check my channel and #mlb-news-and-notes this afternoon for those.
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