Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner.
Above are the top three pitchers in Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report for the main slate, and none of them should really come as a huge surprise given their ability/matchup and options on the slate. When it comes to MLB, strikeouts are king, so the KSCORE is something I take into consideration very heavily. But let’s break these three down, shall we…
- Marcus Stroman – Stroman gets a pretty nice matchup with the White Sox who have an implied run total of 4.3 runs. The White Sox strikeout at a 23.3% rate, but that really isn’t Stroman’s game. He’s a big groundball guy and there isn’t a ton of bats in the Sox lineup that scares me, other than the fact that they’ll likely have six lefties.
- Luis Castillo – Castillo has transformed himself into an elite pitcher this season. He has the highest KSCORE of this group, but he does get the toughest of matchups against the Cubs. The Cubs have an implied total of just 4 runs in Great American Smallpark, I have no issue with getting some Castillo tonight.
- Eric Lauer – Anytime someone is pitching against the Pirates in San Diego’s massive pitcher park, I’ll have interest. I often use more Lauer than I like to admit, but that’s just the style I play. The Pirates have an implied run total of 3.6 runs which is great, but the strikeouts aren’t going to be there if he does get into trouble. However, he’s cheap if you want to jam in some bats.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings:
Ahhhhh it’s great having Dylan Covey back in our lives. Covey does not strike guys out or miss many bats, the Blue Jays will likely be popular, but for good reason. The Mariners get a nice matchup against Michael Pineda, who isn’t the pitcher he use to be. The one thing with this game is the weather, be sure to keep an eye on the Weather Station for updates. Finally, the Cardinals get a matchup with Julio Teheran. The Cardinals offense is very good and I have a lot of respect for it, Teheran gives up a hard contact percentage of 37.9% and has a team wOBA of 0.334, I like them here.
Full Count Breakdown:
New York Mets (-135) @ Washington Nationals (+124)
Zach Wheeler has transformed himself into a very nice pitcher and not someone I want to be stacking against. I will likely get some Wheeler exposure as a pitching option, so not many Nationals for me. The Mets, on the other hand, have an implied run total of 4.9 runs and are very usable here.
NYM
5-star plays: Michael Conforto
4-star plays: Robinson Cano, Peter Alonso
GPP Note: They’re a nice stack and shouldn’t draw that much ownership, but I’ve been wrong before
WAS
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: One-offs only
Milwaukee Brewers (+103) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-112)
I really don’t like targeting offenses against Zach Davies. I don’t know how he does it because watching him just looks like he’s ready to give up homer after homer. But, he’s incredibly good at limiting damages, in fact, I may even get some of him as an SP2 (I may get a lot of him). The Brewers are always a team I’ll look to stack, their offense is elite and the addition of Keston Hiura only makes it better.
MIL
5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Eric Thames, Mike Moustakas
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Ryan Braun, Keston Hiura
GPP Note: Love the Brewers here
PHI
5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Jean Segura, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: I have more interest in Davies than I do the Phillies offense
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Oakland Athletics ( -130) @ Detroit Tigers (+120)
Both of these pitchers have been fine, average, decent, but they’re also able to be had in the right matchup. I’ll have some Chris Bassit interest just because the Tigers offense is #NotGood. But the Athletics are a team I like to attack away from home.
OAK
5-star plays: Matt Olson, Khris Davis
4-star plays: Matt Chapman
GPP Note: I like the A’s as a contrarian stack
DET
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: I like Bassit more than the Tigers
Texas Rangers (-101) @ Kansas City Royals (-107)
This will be the game that people will look to stack and it will be very popular. Homer Bailey still has the label as a gas can, but has not been that this season. He’s really only been blown up once this season and that was by the Rays, I’ve used Bailey a good amount this season and I think people can get fooled into stacking against him. On short slates, you need to make stands and my stand will be fading the Rangers, call me crazy. I do have some Royals interest, they’ve been swinging nice bats and have an implied run total of 5.1 runs.
TEX
5-star plays: Joey Gallo, Ronald Guzman
4-star plays: Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Asdrubal Cabrera
GPP Note: You already know my stand on the Rangers for GPPs, I’ll be fading. But if you’re playing cash, you’re going to want to get a piece of this team.
KCR
5-star plays: Ryan O’Hearn, Hunter Dozier
4-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: I like the Royals here
Baltimore Orioles (+248) @ Cleveland Indians (-274)
I talked about how I didn’t really want to stack against Homer Bailey, but people still think he’s a gas can. Dan Straily is the definition of a gas can and if you’re playing the all day slate, make sure to get yourself some Indians bats. Trevor Bauer is pitching for the Indians, so no interest in the Orioles.
BAL
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: All the Bauer
CLE
5-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Jake Bauers
GPP Note: Probably the best stack of the day
Chicago Cubs (+118) @ Cincinnati Reds (-128)
I touched on Luis Castillo earlier and I like him here, so not a lot of interest in the Cubs for me. Jose Quintana will draw the start for the Cubs and has been fairly good this season. I think there are better options than these two offenses. Eugenio Saurez does crush lefties, however, so feel free to play some one-offs here.
CHC
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez
GPP Note: One-offs only
CIN
5-star plays: Eugenio Saurez
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Nick Senzel
GPP Note: One-offs only
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St. Louis Cardinals (+102) @ Atlanta Braves (-110)
I was all over the Braves last night and it didn’t really work out all that well. I’m more than willing to go back to the well here against Adam Wainwright. Julio Tehran can pitch well, but he can also get lit up with the best of ’em. I don’t mind a contrarian Cardinals stack as well.
STL
5-star plays: Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Marcell Ozuna, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Sneaky stack that could go under-owned
ATL
5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, Nick Markakis, Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Brian McCann, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Love the Braves here, probably my favorite main slate stack
Toronto Blue Jays (-132) @ Chicago White Sox (+122)
I touched on the Jays earlier and how they can be attacked in a matchup against Dylan Covey who is not good. I really don’t want any of the Sox offense against Marcus Stroman, he has the ability to limit damage and that sinker keeps balls on the ground.
TOR
5-star plays: Justin Smoak, Rowdy Tellez
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Eric Sogard, Billy McKinney
GPP Note: Very cheap stack that will be popular for people who want to jam in some top pitchers
CHW
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jose Abreu
GPP Note: One-offs only
Pittsburgh Pirates (+119) @ San Diego Padres (-129)
Eric Lauer is usable as a very cheap SP2, so not a lot of interest in the Pirates here, but they’re usable as way way way low owned GPP stack. I don’t have a lot of interest in the Padres either, this ballpark just isn’t ideal for runs.
PIT
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Melky Cabrera, Francisco Cervelli
GPP Note: Large field stack only
SDP
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Franmil Reyes, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: One-offs only
Minnesota Twins (-108) @ Seattle Mariners (-101)
The one thing we need to monitor here is the weather, it looks like there will be some rain in the area, so keep an eye on the Weather Station. With that said, both of these offenses are playable against Michael Pineda and Erik Swanson.
MIN
5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Marwin Gonzalez
GPP Note: Great stack if the weather holds up
SEA
5-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Edwin Encarnacion
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Jay Bruce
GPP Note: I like the Twins more, but they’re playable as well
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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