With no chalk donkey article this week & me being off of work today (thank you for the stat holiday Canada) we thought it would be good to give members a new PGA concept for the week. While Josh and Taco are both fantastic at reasoning behind ownership and ownership projections respectively it is not my strongest suit. While I feel I have an above average understanding I have not invested the time to master the concept. Instead, with DFS I have focused much of my efforts into cash game contests across sports. While I still play GPP’s the vast majority of my effort is spent on cash games. For that reason, I believe it would be disingenuous to all of you to try and replicate was Josh is doing and instead thought I would make an article focusing more on my cash game ideas/thoughts for the week. For me the research starts Monday and continues until the end of the week Wednesday night – I will update this article Teusday/Wednesday night as well to reflect changes.
Primer
Cash games are something I have written about in the past here at DFS Army (https://wp.dfsarmy.com/2017/09/pga-cash-game-double-strategy-draftkings-fanduel.html) and something I am currently tracking publicly this year (currently 9.5 wins 6.5 losses in double-ups). Cash games are something where I still think there is an edge on the rest of the field to be profitable long term, and well they aren’t necessarily as interesting/fun for all they do provide stability to build a bankroll and take shots at GPP’s.
Monday
I’ll start with this sentiment before I begin – The goal should always build a team you think can go 6/6 on made cuts, however, I personally believe depending on the event structure/course, the importance of the 6/6 can vary and the risk of being more unbalanced can be worth the reward.
The current first part of my process is assessing the tournament and deciding how it should/if it should impact my builds. This week for example, we have a smaller field with 122 players instead of 144. With a higher % making the cut I am more inclined to take a chance on a higher salaried player with a higher chance of winning because the ‘scrub’ I add is already 10-15% more likely to make the cut than a typical week.
The Colonial also ranks right in the middle of the field for strokes gained per round, although we can see guys go very low, we typically do not see much of the field at, say, -10 or lower. If we are at the John Deere Classic for example, one of the easiest courses on tour, I am much more inclined to build ‘safe’ and be more conservative on my 6/6 lineup because everyone who goes through is likely to get a lot more points over the weekend compared to those who aren’t. Just like on the other side of the equation, an event like the PGA Championship last week the advantage of having 6/6 through was relatively minimal in comparison.
With that said, because of the tournament structure this week and the event playing rather standard in terms of difficulty, I am inclined to be potentially a littler more risky than I usually would be with my build. This isn’t to say I’ll start with Rose/Rahm and fill in the rest, or that I will even pay up for Rose/Rahm, but that thought will be in my mind that if I find a team I am comfortable with I won’t have an issue taking a shot with a higher salary.
The Player List
My next step is to go over the players/salaries on DraftKings and get a rough list of potential cash game plays. The length can vary week to week, but I want to give myself an understanding of where I am going/what I am thinking for the week. Similarly, I am also not necessarily crossing out any players for the week either, as someone who may not necessarily jump off the page for me initially might when I look over our Research Station or if I hear a player being talked up in a podcast/article and more information becomes available.
With that being said, my short list upon first look is as follows:
Jordan Spieth – DK: 10900
Very, very unlikely I use him, although he is rounding into form and at a course he has excelled at – I do not think I’ll be able to afford even with being a little more aggressive this week
Rickie Fowler – DK: $10500
If the Research Station agrees, and the money is there could see myself squeezing in Rickie, albeit unlikely
Francesco Molinari – DK: $9800
I love the price and could see myself ending up on Molinari if I like some affordable options, rare MC at heritage and last week I can more or less disregard as it was definitely not a course Moli is set up for – however this is
Paul Casey – DK: $9300
Likely ends up in final lineup. Love the price and although he was up and down earlier in the year he seems to have figured it out, at an event I like him for.
Jason Kokrak – DK: $8900
Kokrak has been solid this year, on a big made cut streak, trending a bit on the wrong direction but still looking great.
Emiliano Grillo – DK: $8700
Always a cash game option, good price and playing solid.
Matthew Fitzpatrick – DK: $8500
Course fit + price + recent performance.
Billy Horschel – DK: $8100
Not typically a fan or Horschel, great price this week makes me extremely interested.
Brandt Snedeker – DK: $7900
Sneds will like 90% be in final build, great price should see him be chalky, allows me to pay up elsewhere.
Graeme McDowell – DK: $7800
On a made cut streak, 5 straight top 50’s. Liking him more than most.
Pat Perez – DK: $7700
Good course fit + price
Sungjae Im – DK: $7700
Im likely does not end up in final build but I do think the price doesn’t reflect what we have seen. Ends up being more considered if public is on him and/or Research Station reflects little worry in recent performances.
Charley Hoffmann – DK: $7600
Turned around from the beginning of the year, solid price
Russell Knox – DK: $7400
Been playing solid, 2 of 3 missed cuts recently but both were close, this weeks was at an awful course fit for Knox.
Ollie Schneiderjans –DK: $7000
Yeah its spelt wrong but you know what I mean, no hat has made four straight cuts – see what research station says.
Nick Taylor – DK: $6800
Trending wrong way but making a good % of cuts for price
Adam Long – DK: $6300
90% wont be going this low and not seriously advising it but if I decide too ill take the guy with two straight top 50’s
Thoughts
There’s a few guys I am higher on than others including; Molinari, Casey, Kokrak, Fitzpatrick, McDowell, Snedeker – I think for me it’s always important to come up with favourite and have an idea before content comes out, I like leaving myself at this step: knowing my pool and knowing my favourites and then taking Teusday to digest information and come back around with thoughts before the end of the day. Because of this, I will leave the article at this point and update the next section tomorrow night!
Tuesday
The Podcasts
The next step for me personally is podcasts/articles around the industry in an effort to get what others are thinking/where the public will go. There’s a variety of popular ones out there from Pat Mayo, Fantasy Golf Degenerates, Tour Junkies, etc. These provide good info (albeit not as good as the RS/articles Taco & Josh are putting out) but the main thing they help me with is getting a sense of where the public will be. We are all looking at the same list of players on DraftKings and once you do this for awhile I think you can more or less get a sense of who will be chalky – but I think this can help fill in the gaps. I think in whatever you do the more information the better, for me in my personal situation podcasts are much easier than reading through articles so I stick with that – if you have time go through it all and use the info to your advantage.
Internal Information/Ownership
Internally, as I mentioned I do think there is a big advantage within the work Josh/Taco do week in and week out, specifically the RS is where I begin for cash game purposes. What I am looking for is two things: 1) value plays according to our RS that I may have missed (looking at the value projection) 2) player by player through my list to come narrow down my list.
Typically I am doing this with the podcast and Josh’s article in mind, if someone is super chalky they also get considered for cash simply because of ownership – I have no issue avoiding the 45% owned 7k guy but I do not wanna rule out the 45% owned 9.5k guy because if he goes off and wins and I do not have him I am behind the 8 ball.
With that said I like to more or less begin the next step by using the information from the podcasts and the internal to start narrowing down my list – form podcasts I gathered; public will be on Rahm, Rickie, Casey, Piercy, Grillo, Horschel, Knox. Of course others were mentioned, and Rahm likely won’t be as possible for cash game purposes, but the big takeaway for me is that many of the guys I liked initally for cash will likely be highly owned. When comparing that to our Research station I see these guys for the most part are more or less some of the higher values for the week and nothing alarming from the RS is keeping me off of these players.
My next step is to go through my initial list and see if there is anyone who the research station is not agreeing with me on – typically there is a few and it’s usually easy to lower the list using the internal and external information. In this instance the numbers are getting me off of: Jordan Spieth, Pat Perez, Sungjae Im, Charley Hoffman, Ollie Schneiderjans & Adam Long. Leaving me with a list of 11 guys on my initial list/added from initial research.
With those 11 I also go through the research station one more time for alternatives that were not necessarily talked up in podcasts but are sticking out according to the research station (this is usually sub $7k/$6k guys that have been quietly putting up good performances in the key statistical areas). This week that includes a few guys who interest me including: Denny McCarthy, Vaughan Taylor, J.T. Poston & Corey Conners). Typically I try to avoid going this low in salary, but I think it’s always good to know which guys you can still have confidence in if you come up with a build you love that requires a sub $7k salary.
Wrapping Up
At this point I have my key core I want to build around and a few high salary/low salary options if I need to fill in, I like to try and begin building a few lineups and get an idea of what I like. Because we are not in the business of selling lineups I’m not gonna disclose what my top choices are but, I think the most important process of this point is figuring out a) who you forsure want in the lineup (whether its 1,2,3 even 4 locked in players) and b) combinations you can build off of from this point.
Happy Building!
Wednesday
Finalizing (won’t be giving the final line-up obviously, but more so focused on the steps that get me to that point)
We are now at the point in the week where I like to make my final decision. Generally this involves tinkering with the core I had previously chosen and finding different combos until you are satisfied. There isn’t really too much different for me here than Teusday unless news breaks or comes out about a certain player in a positive or a negative way. The bigger part of this for me is the next section.
One Versus Multiple Builds
There is no defined rule on this, from what I find most people typically make one cash lineup, whatever they feel is optimal, and stick to that. Certain weeks, if I like a core grouping buy feel confident about multiple different builds I will put in 2 line-ups as a way to be a bit more cautious. I really think there is no right or wrong here and it’s all about finding out what works for you. I wish I had more to add but I really think at this stage it’s about keeping it simple and more or less sticking to the original plan.