BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 10 Location – Rochester, New York
Thanks for purchasing my UFC on ESPN+ 10 DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in New York. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a lot of money from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to get my 3rd seat this week to max it if I can. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Julio Arce $9,600 vs Julian Erosa $6,600
Julio Arce
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: Tiger Schulmann’s MMA
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 93
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -700
Julio Arce is coming off a fight of the night war against Sergio Moraes. Arce was one of the bloodiest fighters I have ever seen & showed no quit in that fight. It was a close, competitive fight in which he lost a split decision. He is getting a chance to bounce back here in New York near where he trains at Tiger Schulmann’s MMA. Arce is a very composed and professional fighter, he keeps a steady work rate and gets better as the fight goes on. He has a very nice jab, and he will double and triple up on it as well as go to the body with it. He has nice round kicks to the body and head, and front kicks to the body. He has a nasty one-two right down the pipe. He does a great job of skipping in with the jab and following with the straight-left. He has great composure in there, the ability to weather a storm and come back to take over. He has great footwork, both forwards and backwards and is very defensively sound. When he sees his opponents wilting, he is very fast and cuts the cage off with jabs and straight-rights, really going for the finish. He is good at going first, cutting off the cage, and pull countering. He is extremely coachable, and he will listen to his corners instructions in between rounds and follow them to a tee. He doesn’t have one punch knockout power and is more of a volume fighter, with only 4 KO/TKO’s. He has a great chin and has never been finished via strikes.
Arce isn’t an offensive grappler, and won’t look for many takedowns, but he does a good job of catching kicks and taking fighters down. He will grab the single collar clinch when fighters get inside on him and throw nice uppercuts. He is slick on the ground and works quickly. He loves to take the back and he will get the body triangle and has awesome back control. He has 5 rear naked chokes and does a good job of sliding his arm under the neck. He has great takedown defense and has yet to be taken down in the UFC. He fought a good wrestler like Dan Ige and defended all 12 of his takedowns. He has phenomenal cardio and picks up as the fight goes on. He loves to fight, is very calm in the octagon, and will be coming in here with major confidence. He is going to have the much faster hand speed & footwork. I see him going first, backing Erosa up & landing straight shots down the middle. He should throw his one-two & attack the body. If he uses fast strikes and in & out movement, I see him eventually catching & hurting Erosa. I also feel he is the better grappler with better cardio.
Julian Erosa
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 145
Reach: 74.5”
Gym: Yakima MMA
From: Washington
UFC Record: 1-3
Fight Matrix: 132
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +500
Julian Erosa was knocked out pretty viciously in his return fight to the UFC. He took on surging prospect Devonte Smith up a weight class & was handled accordingly. In his last match, he was able to go down to his natural weight class & lost a back & forth decision to Grant Dawson. It seems the UFC are trying to use Erosa to build prospects, & he has had 3 very tough matchups in his last 3 fights. Erosa is 1-3 in the UFC and been knocked out twice. He was also knocked out by Artem Lobov on the Ultimate fighter. His lone UFC win was a split decision & he needs a good performance here to keep his job. Erosa is a long, lanky fighter with decent long range striking skills. He has a solid jab & good left hook. He will throw jabs to the body. He will throw outside low kicks. He has nice front kicks to the body. He will throw a front kick to the body to a jab combination. He has nice round kicks to the head. He does a good job of making the kick appear it’s going low & then throwing it to the head. He likes to throw lead uppercuts. He will attack the body with left hooks & straight punches. He will throw flying knees when he backs opponents against the cage. He does a good job of throwing a one-two into a front knee to the body or head. He dropped & finished Jamal Emmers after landing a head kick. He didn’t really set the kick up in my opinion & it was kind of a lucky shot. He is a flat-footed striker & likes to slowly walk opponents down but stands right in front of fighters. He doesn’t have fast hand speed & will try to counter with slow hooks. He doesn’t go first much & chooses to counter. He holds his hands low & doesn’t move his head off center line and that’s why he has been knocked out so many times. He relies on absorbing shots & wearing opponents out with the forward pressure. He likes a brawl & will taunt and talk to his opponents after he lands or takes a good shot. He does have 10 knockouts in his career and is dangerous. He definitely has chin problems & been KO’d 4 times in his career. He was just knocked out unconscious 4 months ago and is coming back very quickly.
Erosa isn’t an active grappler & will rarely initiate takedowns. He definitely will be trying to use his wrestling in reverse in this match, and keep it standing. His takedown defense is not very good. He stands tall & straight in the air, so fighters can get on his legs easily. He will occasionally get double underhooks & get into top position himself. He is harder to takedown with body locks & against the cage than in the open mat. He is long & utilizes that to attack with chokes. Off his back, he has decent get-ups, but he gives up his back. He will attack from full guard with triangles, armbars & even omaplatas. He is not bad & has quite a few triangle finishes. He was taken down at will by Grant Dawson. He showed good get-ups, but his takedown defense looked to regress. In the third round he was tired & allowed Dawson to take the back, mount, and dominantly win the round. Erosa has 9 career submissions, but mostly vs low-level fighters. When he hurts fighters, he will jump on submissions. He has good rear naked chokes. Erosa has never been submitted. Erosa is obviously being set up to take a L here and needs something crazy to win. He is out gunned on the feet & on the mat, but he is long, dangerous and has to go for it. He needs to throw head kicks, knees to the head & shots that can knock Arce out. I don’t feel he has big power in his punches & needs to use his legs to finish the fight most likely.
This should be Arce’s fight to lose. I think he is the much better striker of the two and I think he will be the one who decides where this fight takes place. I don’t see Erosa being able to land takedowns and I would imagine Arce is going to want to strike. So, I think this fight stays standing as long as it lasts, and I have to give the advantage to the guy, Vegas and I believe is better. Erosa will have the height and reach advantage but other than that I give the striking edge to Arce and I think he likely picks Erosa apart for 15-minutes.
I usually love to target the curtain jerker on DraftKings but this week I don’t see me having much exposure to it. I think this is a fairly safe win for Arce, but his price is too high for me to pay, so I guess my preferred play here would be Erosa. I think Arce is a better cash play than a GPP play because with GPPs you are relying on him getting the 1st or 2nd round knockout. He can definitely get it, so I wouldn’t talk you off exposure to him, I just don’t see me having many, if any, Arce lineups. I also think if you see this going all 3 rounds that you can use Erosa as a cash game punt as well and then get away from using Arce there. I am likely sticking with 20 or less lineups this week personally so I can’t see me having this fight in more than 2-3 lineups and that may still be too much.
Winner – Julio Arce via Unanimous Decision
Trevin Giles $8,400 vs Zak Cummings $7,800
Trevin Giles
Age: 26
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Elite MMA Houston
From: Texas
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W11
Betting Odds: -155
Trevin Giles has taken a year and half off after going 2-0 in the UFC in 2017. He paused his MMA career to become a police officer, but now is ready to get back in the cage. He has looked incredibly impressive finishing both of his UFC fights brutally. Giles is very athletic. He is a grappler, & strong wrestler. Giles is still a little green as a striker, but he is learning quickly, and has the ability to become a very good striker. With having nearly taken 2 years off I see him coming in looking much improved. He has a long stance and good movement. He is good at staying at his range & keeping opponents just at the end of his jab. He will constantly feint level changes to keep opponents off balance. He has a very fast, snappy jab, that he will double & triple up on. He will throw a one-two or a jab, right hook combination. He likes to follow both those combos with a left hook, right hook combination or a left hook to the body. He will attack the body with one-twos as well. He has a nice rear uppercut. He is very fast & closes the distance super quickly. He has very fast hand speed & stays technical. He really works behind his jab & doesn’t open himself up to be hit much. He does slide away at times with his hands a bit low & a fighter who is explosive & throws more than one shot at a time may be able to exploit that. He can be caught coming in as well, if an opponent can time his entries. He will throw occasional leg & body kicks. When he is loose & comfortable he likes to end combinations with kicks. Giles has big power & 5 KO/TKO’s. He is undefeated & has a lot of confidence.
Trevin Giles is a solid grappler. He is usually looking for the opportunity to close the distance & get a takedown, especially if fighters are near the cage. It will be interesting to see if he tries to grapple, or just keep it on the feet against a black belt in Zak Cummings. In his last match against Antonio Braga Neto, another black belt, he kept it on the feet. He has solid double legs & thudding ground and pound. He will throw big shots from inside his opponent’s guard & can finish fights with hammerfists. He likes to move to side control & the crucifix position. He will force opponents to give their backs & then unload brutal shots from the wrestling ride position. He knocked James Bochnovic out extremely bad with G&P. He has solid top control & is good at being faster in scrambles. He will take the back in scrambles & lock in rear naked chokes. He has two rear naked chokes. He also has an arm triangle, armbar, and inverted triangle. He can keep a very high pace & really put a beating on opponents. He is excellent in top position. He can enter the clinch a bit sloppy sometimes & doesn’t shoot takedowns from range. His takedown defense is questionable & he can be controlled on the mat. He will try to give his back to stand up, and Ryan Spann was able to stay on his back for a majority of round one of their fight. When he’s taken down, he stays calm & is hard to submit, but he can do too much waiting. It seems as he just tries to wait until the perfect moment to use his athleticism to explode into a sweep or stand up. He doesn’t use a lot of technique to stand up off his back or attack with submissions. He was caught in a very tight guillotine against Ryan Spann also, but was able to get out. He was taken down a couple times by Antonio Brago Neto, and was briefly mounted in round one. Giles has great cardio & once he was able to get back to his feet, after being taken down in round 3 vs Neto, he turned it on & knocked him out. Giles has 5 submissions and has finished 10 of his 11 wins. His only decision of his career went to a split decision, and I actually thought Spann deserved the win. Giles is going to be the much better athlete. He is quicker & has much faster hand speed. He should try to work behind his jab, one-two and avoid the grappling with Cummings. I feel if he can keep the fight standing over three rounds he can knock Cummings out.
Zak Cummings
Age: 34
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: Springfield Fight Club
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 7-3
Fight Matrix: 34
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +135
Zak Cummings didn’t look great in his return to 185 lbs. He squeaked out a decision against Trevor Smith, but he has won 3/4 fights. A win over Trevin Giles would most likely get Cummings a top 15 opportunity so this is a big fight for his career trajectory. At 34 years old he has to get going now. Cummings needs to use his experience to take out this young athlete. Cummings is a southpaw pressure fighter on the feet. He likes to walk down opponents with his jab and straight punches. He has a good check right hook, and left uppercut. His straight-left hand is powerful, and probably his best shot on the feet. He is low output and can get stuck waiting for his opponents to throw. He is flat-footed, and faster fighters can close the distance, land and get out. He will throw front kicks & round kicks to the body. He will throw head kicks as well. He has a strong chin, and eats shots very well, never being finished in his career. He has 6 KO/TKO’s, but he isn’t a big power striker. I feel in this fight; the jab of Giles will give Cummings major problems closing the distance. He holds his hands low & is very hittable.
Cummings is a very good grappler & a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He is strong in the clinch. He has nice knees to the body and legs. He does a good job of trapping the wrist, and then disengaging with a big combination. He will throw big hooks to the body. He has good singles, and body lock takedowns. He isn’t very active in looking to get fights to the mat and has preferred to strike mostly. He has gotten his last two submissions after getting in top position, after defending takedowns. He hasn’t even attempted a takedown in his last 5 UFC fights. In this matchup, I feel as if he needs to go for takedowns, and I don’t see Giles shooting on him, giving him an opportunity to get on top. He is very good on top, he has great guard passing, ground & pound and submissions. He can flow as opponents try to scramble and is hard to get-up from under. He has 11 career submissions, and been submitted just 2 times. He has strong takedown defense. He has very heavy hips & a good sprawl. He will sprawl & circle to the back himself, along with countering with a guillotine. Michel Prazares was able to take him down in round one with a single leg. He is a top player & doesn’t have much off his back. He won’t attack with many submissions. He will try to offset opponent’s balance with a lock down in half guard & get a sweep, but mostly uses it to just control posture. He was able to get the referee to stand him & Prazares up in round one, due to stalling out Michel with the lock down position. I don’t imagine he will have to deal with many takedown attempts in this fight. Cummings is going to need to get inside in this fight. He will have to get in the clinch or in on a single leg & get this fight to the mat. We have seen Giles have trouble before with opponents grinding him out, and Cummings has proven he can finish fights on the mat. On the feet, I just feel Cummings is too slow & the jab is going to really bother him, and if it stays on the feet, I see him getting knocked out possibly. He needs to get in top position & win the fight that way.
I see Giles being the better fighter everywhere here. He is an undefeated prospect and he has looked great in his two UFC fights. Cummings is the more experienced fighter and a tough test, but he is 34 years old now and his best days are behind him. I think this is a tough matchup for him and I think he is going to need to get a KO or sub to have a chance. I think Giles is the more dangerous fighter and he will be the fighter going at the higher pace and if this goes to a decision, I think Giles will have done more than enough to get the win.
On DraftKings, Giles is the preferred play here and probably the only one of the two I will be rostering. I don’t want to rely on Cummings getting a finish here, so I will likely just full fade him. I think Giles is playable in all formats though and he is a guy I want to be overweight to the field on. I think he has a good chance of being on that optimal lineup with a win at his $8.4k price tag. I might have him in half my lineups this week and hope that he can take care of business. I am guessing he will want to keep this fight standing but I think he is in play for a KO and I like the pace he sets so it’s really the pace and volume that I am chasing here. Definitely not an all-in play but one I want to get some leverage on over the field.
Winner – Trevin Giles via Unanimous Decision
Patrick Cummins $8,800 vs Ed Herman $7,400
Patrick Cummins
Age: 38
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Syndicate MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 6-6
Fight Matrix: 46
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -250
Patrick Cummins has lost back to back fights & at 38 years old is definitely on the downside of his career. Cummins is a grinder. He is a very strong wrestler & has a hell of a chin. He is willing to take punishment to get the fight to his world, and drains opponents with his style. His striking is not good & he has a ton of scar tissue build up. He gets busted open & looks like a mess in almost every fight. It seems like he almost has to get hit to wake up & then his striking becomes a bit sharper. Cummins has a decent jab, and left hook. He will throw a one-two, along with a jab, overhand right. He will fake a level change & come up with a quick, straight-right hand. He will use some head movement to slip shots & return with punches. He will throw overhand rights & right hooks in combination to cut opponents off & then shoot on them against the cage. He does have very good forward pressure & will continue to come forward even after getting rocked or dropped. His defense is poor. He doesn’t move his head very well & gets tagged with overhands & straight punches. He has a solid chin but gets rocked a lot and is forced to panic wrestle. When he’s hurt, he doesn’t have good footwork & if he can’t slow down the fight, he is usually finished. He has been KO/TKO’d four times in his career. Cummins has 4 KO/TKO’s himself.
Patrick Cummins is a former D-1 All American wrestler & one of the most prolific takedown artists in UFC LHW history. Cummins has 34 career UFC takedowns. In his last two fights he has been out grappled, but against two elite grapplers. He was taken down 12 times against Corey Anderson & submitted by arm triangle against Misha Cirkunov. He has good single & double leg entries. He will drive through & dump opponents or push them against the cage & work from there. He will get a hold of the front head lock & try to snap his opponents down or trip them. He will lean & wear on opponents with constant pressure & short shots. When he gets top position, he has good control, & will land big elbows and hammerfists. Cummins has two submissions but isn’t a big submission threat. He was submitted for the first time in his career last match. Cummins isn’t going to bring anything different here. He is going to want to use forward pressure, back Herman towards the cage & shoot in on him. I think if he can clinch with him there, he will be able to take him down. I think he can take him down with his doubles from the outside as well. Cummins needs to be careful not to eat a big shot in the clinch or at range, but in my opinion, this is his fight to lose.
Ed Herman
Age: 38
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Team Quest
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 10-10-1
Fight Matrix: 73
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +210
Ed Herman is an OG of the sport. He was a competitor on TUF 3 and has been in the UFC ever since. He has been in the UFC since 2006 and has had a lot of good moments in the octagon. Recently he has lost 4/5 fights & is only 1-3 since moving up to 205 lbs. He’s lost 3 consecutive fights, and this is a loser leaves town match. Ed Herman is a grinder. He isn’t very technical with his striking, but he likes to throw a one-two and long looping hooks. He throws mostly long, Russian casting type hooks. He will go body, head, and he keeps a decent amount of volume out there. He doesn’t have big power, and overall range striking is the least dangerous part of his game. He is susceptible to getting caught with shorter, more technical shots because he loads up and is obvious with his shots. He has a solid chin, but he has been finished with strikes 3 times. Herman has 6 KO/TKO’s himself.
Ed Herman is strong in the clinch and has some nice, short uppercuts and knees to the head. He has good power in short range, showing that with his knee KO of Tim Boetsch in his last victory. He is a good wrestler and has solid takedown defense. He has 32 takedowns in his UFC career. On top, he has big elbows, and cuts his opponents up. He likes to get to the back and he has a nice rear naked choke. Off his back, he doesn’t have a great get-up or sweep game, but he is active off his back. He has good armbars and will attack with leg locks as well. His takedown defense isn’t the greatest. He was taken down & dominated on the mat by C.B.Dolloway. He will attack with armbars & leg locks off his back, but he doesn’t have the greatest get-up game. Dolloway was able to keep him down when he took him down, and I feel if Cummins can get a couple takedowns, he will slow down Herman and have a high likelihood of winning. Herman does have 14 submissions, but none since 2012. He has a nice rear naked choke to go along with the armbar & leg locks. Herman needs to try to stay a bit more technical & composed on the feet and stay off his back. He should work off his jab, leg kicks and let go when Cummins tries to close the distance. He should look to land big knees & elbows in the dirty boxing range. He needs to try to get a knockout, or multiple big moments to win here.
This is likely a loser leaves town matchup. Both guys seem to be at the end of their careers and I am not really sure why they are being matched up against each other at this point. I do think Cummins has a very clear path to victory here and that is through his wrestling. If he wants to stand and bang, then this will be a close fight and I think Herman would actually be favored in that style matchup. But I don’t see that being the case. Cummins should wrestle in every round if he can and that should be enough to get him the win.
As bad as this fight is on paper, I think it is one we might need to target on DraftKings. It won’t be a fight I am heavily exposed to, but I think both guys are in play. Cummins, I think is in play in all formats because of his wrestling ability. He knows his chin is his biggest weakness, so I don’t see why he would want to strike with a guy who’s only real chance at this point is winning a striking match. Herman is purely a GPP only target but if he can test Cummins chin then he can win via KO and if that happens then he is live for that $25k lineup. My preferred play is going to be Cummins though because I think he racks up takedowns in this fight and if he can do it consistently without gassing, then he has a decent ceiling here. I do feel fairly confident that he wins as well so that is why I think he is playable in cash. However, his floor is 0. If I was making 10 GPP lineups I would likely have 2-3 Cummins and maybe 1 Herman. I might end up fading Herman, but he makes sense in large tournaments because he won’t be highly owned and if he wins, he will outscore his price tag because it is likely via KO.
Winner – Patrick Cummins via Unanimous Decision
Mike Trizano $8,300 vs Grant Dawson $7,900
Mike Trizano
Age: 27
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: Tiger Schulmann’s MMA
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 56
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W15
Betting Odds: -140
Mike Trizano is dropping down to 145 lbs after winning TUF & an additional UFC fight at 155 lbs. He took a decision over Violent Bob Ross in a fight where he was a pretty substantial underdog. Trizano is a technical striker. He has good inside and outside leg kicks to go along with a strong jab. He does a good job of keeping a high volume of shots out there, and just touching his opponents instead of winding up and throwing with huge power. He has a very nice check left hook and will land it to stop fighters’ forward motion and then circle back the center of the cage. He has a nasty uppercut as well, and great timing and accuracy on it. He will throw a jab, leg kick combination, and he really sits down on his leg kicks. He does a solid job of moving and using good head movement to try to be a hard target to hit. He is still too flat-footed at times, and fighters can close the distance on him with punches or takedown attempts. He is a composed guy out there, and he usually keeps the same deliberate pace all three rounds. He does possess decent power, but I would say he is definitely more of a volume guy. He has 3 KO/TKO’s and is undefeated.
Trizano is a solid grappler, I don’t see him trying to wrestle much in this matchup, but he will need to have his defensive wrestling on point. He has good double leg takedowns. When he takes fighters down, he is more worried about controlling the position, and winning the round, then landing G&P or going for submissions. He likes to get into half guard, where he feels heavy, and will land short shots. He does have one rear naked choke in his career, but I haven’t seen him do much advancing of position and threatening with BJJ against higher level fighters in top position. He has good takedown defense. He will counter takedown attempts with nice guillotines & front chokes. He will use the chokes to take top position himself. When he does get taken down, he has an active guard, and will look to sweep and get on top. He has decent leg locks, and good get-ups. He will give his back to stand up, but he is very good at shucking opponents off. He is very composed & fights to a game plan. He has never lost, amateur or pro and is riding a 15-fight win streak overall. Trizano needs to use leg kicks & straight punches in this match. I think his leg kicks will be very effective in this match along with his jab. He needs to use his chokes to counter the takedown attempts and make Dawson work for every takedown. I have seen Trizano use the Travis Browne style elbows in fights, and Dawson has been finished that way. If Trizano can use his leg kicks to hinder the movement & takedowns of Dawson, he will be most likely able to take a decision with technical striking.
Grant Dawson
Age: 25
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: Glory MMA & Fitness
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 159
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W10
Betting Odds: +120
Grant Dawson returned from his USADA suspension to get a big win over Julian Erosa in his UFC debut. He likes to keep heavy pressure on opponents, and he usually opens up throwing a lot of kicks. He will throw front & round kicks to the body. He has a decent jab. He has good, long right hooks. He will throw side hooks in combination, while mixing in uppercuts. He is good at slipping a punch & landing left or right hooks or an overhand. He will also attack the body off slips. He will throw nice high kicks. When he is the faster fighter, he will dominate opponents, because he can slip, and counter with strikes or get a double leg. He is quick & cuts fighters off well, but he holds his hands super low & his chin is straight up in the air. He is super open to being hit & has been TKO’d before. When he doesn’t have a speed advantage or has an opponent who can throw tight, straight shots down the middle, he struggles. He will walk through shots with reckless abandon & has shown a good chin, but it’s a risky style. The forward pressure does wear opponents down though, and he’s able to drown them once he gets them on the ground. He has 3 KO/TKO’s all due to G&P. In his one loss, he was finished with elbows to the head when he was in on a double leg against the cage. Dawson just needs to use his striking to close the distance in this match. I feel if he does catch Erosa clean, he could hurt him, but on the ground he has less of chance of getting hurt.
Dawson is a grinder & still developing as a striker. He is aggressive & doesn’t mind being hit, which goes a long way in improving your striking as a grappler. He is only 25 years old & I expect improvements. He also was returning from a long layoff in his last match and should have knocked some rust off. Dawson is a very good grappler, and much better grappler than striker, in my opinion. He has great timing on his double legs & sets them up with his strikes very well. When he gets on top, he goes to work immediately & rains down big ground & pound. He does a great job of posturing, landing big, straight punches & hammerfists. He does a great job of wearing his opponents down, passing and taking dominant positions. He will mount & throw big ground & pound until opponents give their back. He has good rear naked chokes & back control. He will flatten opponents out & soften them up with shots before sinking in the chokes. He is a bit of a rear naked choke specialist. He has 5 career RNC’s. He will attack with d’arces & anacondas. He has great cardio & once he gets one takedown, he usually severely diminishes his opponent. He has 9 career submissions & has never been submitted. Dawson needs to get takedowns here. He is outgunned on the feet & will most likely be out struck. I do think he is maybe a bit faster & definitely throws with more power. I think he needs to strike just enough to create openings for takedowns. Trizano has good get-ups & Dawson has to hang on him and make him work to stand up if he does. Trizano is making the move to 145 & Dawson has great cardio, so he may be able to gas him out. Trizano does give his back when he stands up & Luis Pena had a couple rear naked choke attempts. If Dawson can implement a grappling heavy game plan, he will most likely win.
This should be a good one. It is also the only fight I am picking the underdog to win. Both guys are solid, but I can see Dawson’s pace and wrestling ability getting him the upset victory here. I think he will be the one pushing forward and if this goes to the judges then I see him being the guy that did more work to sell himself for the win. I think Trizano is the better overall talent, but Dawson will put up a pace that not everybody can match, and I can see that being enough to win a decision here. I see him being the one moving forward, landing takedowns and with Trizano dropping to 145 lbs, maybe he can’t hang with that pace either and Dawson can win 2 or 3 rounds.
On DraftKings, Dawson is my preferred play. He is the only underdog I am picking to win outright so he will be a guy I am overweight on. I am not sure if he makes half or more of my lineups, but I’ll have more than 35% in GPPs. I think he is in play for cash as well. I have messed around with a couple cash lineups so far and he is a guy I would like to be able to squeeze into my lineup if I can. Trizano isn’t a guy that I am very interested in. I don’t see him having a big ceiling in this fight, so I might just avoid hedging my Dawson exposure and hope he can pull off the upset. If anything, Trizano will make maybe 1 GPP lineup for me. He isn’t a guy I would talk you into taking out of your lineups, but I don’t think he is a guy we want to be going heavy on. Dawson actually has the better ITD prop, so I don’t see how Trizano scores highly without a finish and I think this goes all 3-rounds either way.
Winner – Grant Dawson via Unanimous Decision
Danny Roberts $8,900 vs Michel Perreira $7,300
Danny Roberts
Age: 31
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: American Combat Club
From: England
UFC Record: 5-3
Fight Matrix: 105
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -250
Danny Roberts has been up & down in his UFC career. He had won two consecutive fights, before being submitted in somewhat controversial fashion. He screamed when he was caught in an armbar, and the referee counted it as a verbal submission. He is jumping right back on the horse two months later and looking to put that behind him. Danny Roberts is a good striker & crisp boxer. He likes to use lateral movement and walk opponents into his kicks and punches. He has a very nice jab, left straight combination, with great accuracy and power. He will throw a check right hook if fighters are getting too aggressive. He will throw a jab, overhand right. He throws a left hook, right hook combination. He will throw the inside, outside leg kicks. He will throw front & round kicks to the body occasionally and has a nice head kick. He can get walked down and if he gets caught against the fence, he is there to be unloaded on. He has 6 KO/TKO’s himself but has a questionable chin. He has been KO’d twice in his career.
Danny Roberts is not a bad grappler. He will look to get double underhooks & push fighters against the cage. He likes to go for singles against the cage. He has good body lock trips. He has heavy ground & pound, and good scrambling ability. He has a solid rear naked choke. He was able to get a triangle choke against Nathan Coy. Early on in this match, he should try to get inside, clinch up & takedown Pereira, in my opinion. I think he could potentially tire him out & even finish him with ground & pound. He showed some great submission defense in his last match. He was able to sweep a credentialed Jiu-Jitsu black belt & hurt him with G&P. I think Roberts is actually very underrated on the ground. He has 5 submissions & has been submitted twice. Roberts has a huge experience edge here. He needs to fight smart & outclass Pereira. He should look to take Pereira down early on, use a high guard & punches to walk him down, get in on a clinch & body lock him. I think he could finish Pereira on the mat potentially. I also feel he has the faster hands & much better boxing technique, especially in the pocket. He can’t allow Pereira to maintain distance and use those lunging punches & kicks. I think as long as Hot Chocolate minds his P & Qs he has a great chance to win this fight.
Michel Pereira
Age: 25
Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Reach: N/A
Gym: Scorpion Fighting Systems
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 152
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +210
Michel Pereira is entering the UFC with some fanfare. He went viral for his crazy techniques in the cage. This guy fights like no one else ever. He will literally moonsault off the cage mid fight, throw showtime kicks & superman punches off the cage, and is just an overall wild man. I’m not sure he can pull these types of crazy techniques off vs legit fighters, and he hasn’t fought good competition. His last two wins have come against 3-2 & 4-5 fighters. Pereira is very athletic & has good movement. He has a solid jab & very heavy, straight-right hand. He has a very long reach & will lunge forward with straight-right hands. He will throw solid one-twos and likes to go to the body with jabs & then throw the straight-right to the head. He will throw heavy hooks to the body. He will throw a lot of front kicks to the body & oblique kicks to the leg. He will do a lot of dancing & hand movement to lull opponents to sleep, then explode in with a flying kick, knee or punch combination. I have seen him do a back flip into a body kick, straight-right hand combination. He will throw 360 roundhouse kicks. He has a decent spinning back kick to the head. His front knees to the body & head aren’t bad and overall, the guy is an athletic, dangerous fighter. He leaves a lot to be desired in terms of defense. He holds his hands low & opponents with good boxing can land clean on him. In the pocket, he will brawl & rely on his chin to hold up. I don’t think he has a very good chin & when opponents back him up towards the cage, they can tee off on him. I have seen him crumble to shots that didn’t look that powerful against the cage. Opponents seem to be able to back him up & keep him against the cage at times, but he will throw kicks & superman punches off the cage to try to get off it. He can be a bit low output in between his blitz combinations. When he sees opponents are hurt, he is a finisher & will turn up the heat. He has 9 KO/TKO’s & has finished his last four wins by KO/TKO. He has only been finished by strikes one time.
Michel Pereira isn’t much of a grappler, but he uses the clinch effectively. He will close the distance with hooks or straight punches, grab the Muay Thai plum & land knees to the body & head. He doesn’t have good defense in the clinch & opponents can land big overhands over the top & uppercuts up the middle. I have seen him shoot singles & doubles & he got a double leg in his last match. His wrestling though, doesn’t look very good. In top position, Pereira uses it more to take a break. He will just lay in opponent’s guards & try to land short hammerfists & punches. He will try crazy things such as back flip guard passes. I have even seen him drop an opponent against the cage, jump on the top of the cage & moonsault off it, over his opponent as he stood up & then jumping side kicked him to the face. He seems to have a decent sprawl & get-up. He has good cardio & when he stands up off bottom, he will go on the offensive right away. I have seen him hit with some big hammerfists in his guard & I feel an experienced grappler could dominate him on the ground. Pereira does have six submissions & only has been submitted once. Pereira has finished 15 of his 21 wins. He is only 6-7 in decisions. Pereira needs to come out fast, unpredictable & try to take Roberts out early. He has dangerous, lunging punches, along with his crazy techniques, and if Roberts gives him space he could get caught.
Pereira is making his debut here and he is a wild man. He goes for a lot of flashy moves in his fights and there aren’t many fighters like him stylistically. I’d imagine he is a hard fighter to train for, but Roberts will be the more technical striker here. A lot of the moves Pereira does aren’t very helpful in a MMA fight against other high-level talent. He does a lot of flipping onto his opponent and spinning kicks and eventually that is going to go horribly wrong for him. Maybe he can get one past Roberts here, but the higher he climbs in the UFC the more he will be exposed. I will take Roberts here by KO or submission, but Pereira could land something crazy and end the night with a KO himself. If this goes all 3-rounds, then Roberts should get his hand raised there as well.
This is a fight I like to target for GPPs. I don’t expect this to go the distance and Vegas agrees with the -180 FDGTD prop. I like both sides a good bit, but I think I will have more exposure to Pereira here. I don’t see many underdogs having high ceilings this week, so I like targeting that potential from Pereira. He could land something crazy any time in this fight and Roberts doesn’t have the greatest chin. A KO from Pereira would make him very live for the optimal lineup. He is a GPP only type of guy though and it’s purely the ceiling we are chasing. I do think he loses and I think Roberts actually will be the one getting the KO. He is just much more expensive, and he is competing with a lot of other people who have high ceilings as well in the upper salary range. This is a fight I will have in half or more of my lineups though and I think the winner has 100-point upside.
Winner – Danny Roberts via 2nd round (T)KO
Desmond Green $9,500 vs Charles Jourdain $6,700
Des Green
Age: 29
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: American Combat Club
From: New York
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: 44
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -650
Des Green finally had a breakthrough performance in his last match. He had a very fast devastating KO of Ross Pearson. A finish like that could really help with confidence & showing full potential in the cage. Green has long been a fighter who has a lot of potential but doesn’t let it all go in the cage. He begged to be on this card in his home town, and I expect him to come in great shape. Green is a great athlete & well-rounded fighter. He is very fast. He likes to use his range, stay on the outside, throw kicks and dart in with dangerous hooks. He has a nice jab and a good, straight-right hand. He will throw some nice counter overhands and uppercuts from odd angles. He has very nice counter straight punches. Since he is a counter striker, he can tend to give up the center, and even though he may be landing more damage, him getting walked down could be deceiving. He looks as if he can be a very dangerous guy when he lets it go, but he tends to play it safe. He will do just enough to get the job done instead of opening up and finishing the fight. This was most evident against Gleison Tibau, but in his last match he finished Ross Pearson very quickly. He is hard to hit & has very good overall defense. He has 6 career KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Desmond Green is an All-American wrestler, and very explosive. He has very fast single & double leg shots, & if he wants to come in here with a wrestling heavy game plan, he should easily be able to takedown Jourdain. He hasn’t wrestled very much in the UFC & prefers to strike, but in this fight, I feel the gap in the grappling is humongous. If he can get on top, he has heavy ground & pound and solid guard passing. His takedown defense is excellent. He is like a cat & will pop right back up to his feet if taken down as well. He has been able to deny takedown attempts from elite wrestlers like Khabilov & Prazares. He only has 2 submissions & isn’t a big submission threat. He has been submitted twice in his career. Green has gassed in fights, but that was at 145 lbs and he seems to have good cardio & 155. I think Des Green should look to take Jourdain down here. I think he can easily take him down & if he does, I don’t see Jourdain getting up. I see Des Green just beating him up from top position, and maybe even getting a finish. He needs to watch out for the high elbow guillotine & the spin game back fists of Jourdain.
Charles Jourdain
Age: 23
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 69”
Gym: Academie Pro Star MMA
From: Canada
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 178
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +475
Charles Jourdain is making his UFC debut fresh off becoming a two-division champion in TKO. He defeated Damien Lapilus via fifth round KO just over a month ago April 11th. Jourdain looks to be pretty small for LW & I definitely see him as a 145er in the UFC. Jourdain is a very good, athletic, range striker. He has heavy low kicks. Jourdain has a decent jab, but his lunging straight-right hand is very nice. He will throw a nice right hook to the body to a right hook to the head. He will also throw a right hook to the body to a left hook to the head, or a right hook to the body to a head kick. He has a decent overhand right. He will mix spinning back fists into his combinations & is very fast closing the distance. He has good flying knees. He will definitely push the pace & try to wear opponents down with body shots. He is tough & doesn’t break, he will continue to look for the finish until the last minute of the fight. He has good power & 6 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Charles Jourdain’s grappling is not good. He has very questionable takedown defense. He doesn’t have much off his back and will lose rounds through being on bottom. He is flexible & will try to use a high guard or even a rubber guard. He will attack with triangles & armbars to try to create scrambles to stand up. I have seen him get put on his back for five consecutive rounds & not be able to stand up once. He will lock in guillotines to counter takedown attempts at times, but you have to really telegraph your shot or be rocked for him to get the finish, in my opinion. He will allow opponents to take his back & get to mount. Jourdain has 3 submissions, 2 are rear naked chokes. He has good cardio & has been able to push the pace for 5 rounds in fights. Jourdain needs to use movement, kicks & try to time his blitz’s and put Des Green out. He has to go first & force bad shots out of Green & not allow himself to get backed up. He should look to counter the takedowns with the guillotine & flying knees.
This will be Jourdain’s UFC debut and he will be facing Green who is from Rochester NY, where this card is taking place. Green won his last fight by 1st round KO not even 2 months ago and he did a great job on the mic calling for a fight in Rochester. I’d imagine it was tough to get him a bigger name on that short of notice so that is why Jourdain got the call up. He does look pretty decent though. He looks like the more dangerous fighter, but he is going to have to keep this fight standing to have a chance and will still probably need a KO. Green has great wrestling and he can rely on it if the striking isn’t going his way. I think the line is a bit steep here, but Green is the rightful favorite and he is my pick to win a 30-27 decision with a wrestling-based game plan.
On DraftKings, this won’t be a fight I have much exposure to. I think both guys are in play but not guys we are going heavy on. With Green, I like his grappling upside and if he is smart he will go to it often here. He has the ability to rack up 10 takedowns in my opinion, but we have never seen him do that. I also think Jourdain could be the more dangerous striker as well, so it just makes sense to take advantage of the edge on the ground. He is also a “safe” win so you could use him in cash. Jourdain is playable mostly in cash I think. He is my favorite sub $7k punt and I do think this goes all 3-rounds. If Green does want to stand then we can rack up points and accept a loss in cash games. For GPPs, you’ll need the finish because he isn’t going to win a decision. He is very cheap though so that’s the only other case to make for him. If you are making 5 or less lineups this is a fight I would just avoid altogether. I think the most likely scenario is Green wins an ~80-point decision and at his price tag that won’t win any GPPs.
Winner – Desmond Green via Unanimous Decision
Aspen Ladd $9,100 vs Sijara Eubanks $7,100
Aspen Ladd
Age: 24
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 66”
Gym: MMA Gold Fight Team
From: California
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -290
Aspen Ladd had the best win of her career in her last win. She dominated the former Invicta Champion, Tonya Evinger, finishing her in the first round. She is 2-0 with two ground & pound finishes so far in the UFC. She is fighting Eubanks in a rematch she already won in 2017, so I’m sure she is very confident. She dominated the fight with her striking. Ladd has great forward pressure and comes forward with a high guard & her chin tucked. Ladd was able to walk her down, land nice straight punches, and left hooks. Ladd has a nice jab she will double & triple up on. She has a very nice left hook, straight-right hand combination. She will throw a straight-left to the body to a straight-right hand to the head. She has good combinations in close with solid head movement and will go body, head. She will throw a front kick to the body, and occasional leg kicks. She is always moving forward and never backs up, has great cardio and just a confidence about her. She is very mentally strong, and training to be the best fighter in the division every day even when she doesn’t have a fight lined up. She is a finisher & has a mean streak about her. She has 5 KO/TKO’s & is undefeated.
Ladd is a strong grappler who likes to strike into the clinch, take you down and smash you from top position. She is very physically strong in the clinch with her double underhooks, but she can be turned and controlled against the clinch. She needs to improve her clinch game against the cage, so she doesn’t lose fights by getting controlled. She lost the first round against Lina Lansberg because she was controlled against the cage. She had a great double leg in round two and once she got on top, the fight was over. She does a great job of getting the side control and then pushing her knee through to the mount while staying very tight. She is very heavy on top and will posture up and unload with punches and elbows. In her last match, she took the back of Tonya Evinger, flattened her out & finished her with ground & pound. When she gets an opponent in a vulnerable position, she will go for the finish immediately. She has good overall takedown defense & a heavy sprawl. She will use an underhook to try to off balance an opponent & take top position herself. She was taken down a couple times by Eubanks. She did take Eubanks down as well & controlled her for a couple minutes, but Eubanks was able to reverse & take her back. She didn’t seem in much danger, & I don’t see Eubanks submitting her most likely. Ladd isn’t a very active seeker of the submission herself & only has one. I think Ladd should have the same game plan that won her the first fight. She needs to use forward pressure & volume striking. She has better cardio & can keep a higher work rate than Eubanks. I also feel Ladd takes shots better & is more willing to exchange. If she can keep it standing & land more, while avoiding being taken down & controlled, she will probably win again. I could also see her trying to mix in takedowns at the end of rounds if the striking is close.
Sijara Eubanks
Age: 34
Height: 5’3
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Ricardo Almeida BJJ
From: Maryland
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 13
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: +245
Sijara Eubanks is moving up to 135 lbs after multiple botched weight cuts at 125. Eubanks hasn’t lost in TUF/UFC competition yet going 5-0. She was 3-0 in the TUF house and had an opportunity to fight for the inaugural FLW strap, but she missed weight and was forced to pull out. She missed weight again in her last match, and that’s why she is moving up here. She is taking on a fighter she has recently lost to too, and this is a tough matchup. She showed major improvements on the feet in her last fight. She used to be very slow and robotic with her movement and just walk forward without moving her head or faking and feinting. In her recent fight, she showed nice forward movement and better defense. She was faking and moving her head more while throwing different combinations. She showed good, explosive hook combinations and threw nice uppercuts. She will sit down and throw with power when she can get in range. She sometimes closes her eyes and just wings shots which I don’t like to see, but she didn’t do that in her last bout. She has nice leg kicks and was able to get a nasty head kick KO on TUF. She has 3 KO/TKO’s in her 6 wins. She still struggles to strike moving backwards & is going to have to deal with the forward pressure of Ladd again. She has never been finished with strikes and is a tough chick who will continue to press forward until you put her out.
Eubanks is a Jiu-Jitsu black & a good grappler. She has a good double leg and good timing on her entries. She does a good job of chain wrestling and will use the double to drive her opponents against the cage and then go for a single or change levels and go up top for a body lock. Her single leg from the outside is her most effective takedown. She can shoot from too far out at times though because she is uncomfortable with the striking. She is very heavy on top and throws hard, heavy elbows. When she takes opponents down, she does a good job of staying on top & winning the round. She has good cardio and can keep a strong pace for all three rounds. She only has one submission herself and isn’t a big submission threat. Eubanks needs to look for takedowns & put Ladd on her back. I think she has improved her striking, but Ladd’s is still better. If she can get top position or control her against the cage, that’s her path to victory to me.
These two fought 2 years ago in Invicta and Ladd won a unanimous decision. I think both have improved since then but Ladd even more so in my opinion. She is also 10 years younger and, on the way up, while Sijara will be on the way down before too long now being 34 years old. I think Eubanks will need to get takedowns in this match to have a chance and I see Ladd being the more dominant fighter and being able to control where this fight takes place. If she wants to keep it standing she should be able to get another unanimous decision. I think she could also land takedowns herself and do damage on the ground but that would be playing more into Eubanks game. I also think the longer this fight goes the more it will play into Ladd’s favor.
On DraftKings, this isn’t a fight I love but it is playable on both sides. I think this most likely goes to decision, so I like the floor for Eubanks. If you want to use her in cash I think that is a fine punt. Maybe she can land takedowns of her own and even win a decision. That could put her on a GPP winning lineup too. Ladd is going to need a finish or a dominant decision to have a chance at the optimal lineup with her salary. She does finish most of her fights and I think it is in play here, I just see this being somewhat like their first fight and I think it goes all 15-minutes. I think I would only land on Ladd if I can’t afford the guys above her. If I only have $9.1k left for my final spot, then I am ok with it. But, I would prefer to move up if I can. I will say Ladd is my preferred play because I feel good about her getting the win. I just don’t think she scores 100+ in this one.
Winner – Aspen Ladd via Unanimous Decision
Davi Ramos $9,200 vs Austin Hubbard $7,000
Davi Ramos
Age: 32
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Rizzo RVT
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 76
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: –470
Davi Ramos has taken the UFC by storm. Since his loss at 170 lbs in his debut, he has gone 3-0 since moving to 155. Ramos is a big, strong, explosive fighter with knockout power. He is a short and compact fighter, who can close the distance, and land left and right hooks. He likes to throw the overhand right a lot and will try to set it up behind a jab or left straight. He has big power in his kicks, thudding body kicks, and powerful leg kicks. He should be much more active with his kicking game. He likes to hang back and counter you, he will not use much footwork or fakes and feints, but rather just slowly walk opponents down and stay in their face to try to get them to throw, so he can counter with a flurry or overhand right. When opponents are pressuring him, he has no problem letting his shots go. He will throw heavy hooks & overhands in combination. He has decent head movement. He has a nice and powerful jab when he gets fighters moving backwards, as well as a nice step-in knee. He has a nice uppercut, left hook combo. He throws an explosive flying knee, and he can finish the fight with it. He is improving every fight with his stand up. He tends to wing a lot of shots & just throws bombs when pressured. Against Chris Gruetzmaker, he was hit with some solid shots & tired a bit. Ramos only has 1 KO/TKO, but he definitely packs enough power to finish a fight. He has a strong chin and has never been finished.
Ramos is a multi-time ADCC Submission Wrestling gold medalist. He is a black belt and has some of the best BJJ in the sport. Ramos is not a bad wrestler and does a good job of mixing up his takedowns. He does a good job of catching kicks, and countering with punches or getting the takedown. He has decent double leg shot, but it can be telegraphed at times. He has nice body lock trip takedowns and has a lot of strength in the clinch position. He lands nice knees there and can control opponents and bank time. In top position, he is very heavy and has great pressure passes to side control or mount. He will search for the arm triangle from half guard. He is looking for submission and keeping position over ground and pound, but when he postures up, he can land heavy shots. If he gets on your back it will be very hard for you to survive that, he has won his last three fights via rear naked choke. Ramos has a good guillotine too & is just overall very dangerous with submissions. He has 7 submissions & never been finished. Ramos tends to gas out & if he can’t finish this fight in round one we may see him diminish a bit. Ramos is just 1-2in decisions & has finished 8/9 wins. I see Ramos being very aggressive in this fight. I see him throwing heavy hooks & overhands in combination when Hubbard closes the distance, and big leg kicks. I see his power kind of making Hubbard hesitant to throw & then I see Ramos eventually trying to get the fight to the ground with a double or body lock. If he can get it to the ground, I see him being able to most likely take the back & get a RNC.
Austin Hubbard
Age: 27
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 72”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 128
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +375
Austin Hubbard is making his UFC debut, fresh off becoming the 155 lb LFA champion. Hubbard is a solid athlete with good striking, & very good movement. He uses a lot of false starts, fakes & feints, along with stance switching. Hubbard is a counter striker, but he’s excellent at going forward, cutting off the cage, and staying in his opponent’s face. He has a fast jab & nice one-two. He will feint to create openings for his straight-right hand. He has pretty solid in & out movement. He likes to leap into a left hook. He will throw straight-right to left hooks to the body. He also will throw very nice left hooks to the body to left hooks to the head combinations. He likes to throw front leg round kicks to the body. He will mix in spinning back fists & spinning back kicks to the body. He can be low output & tends to wait for opponents to strike to counter. He will stand in front of opponents at times & is heavy on his lead leg. He can also be hit by overhands & straight punches. Hubbard has a path to victory with his striking if he can be more active, and finesse Ramos from the outside.
Hubbard is a pretty decent wrestler, but I’m not sure he wants to takedown Ramos at all in this fight. He does do a good job of using his punches to create entries into singles & doubles and has pretty good back takes. He needs to avoid grappling in this matchup & keep it standing. When fighters pressure him, he tends to be hittable & want to shoot takedowns. He needs to be the one going forward here, using his superior footwork & reach to stay on the outside. He can get shucked off the back & I have seen opponents take him out with well-timed body locks. In his last match, he had his back taken & was in a fully sunk in rear naked choke & got extremely lucky. The referee mistook the 10 second clapper for the bell & jumped in when his opponent very well could have finished the fight. He has been submitted one time. He has 3 career submissions. Hubbard trains at elevation & his biggest advantage in this fight will most likely be cardio. He needs to use his long range striking, movement & attack the body. If he can get Ramos tired, then he can begin to try to cut off the cage & put pressure on him. He can’t sit back & wait to counter so much or stand in front of Ramos. Hubbard needs to stay technical & most likely take a 3-round decision over Ramos. I don’t think he can finish him.
Hubbard will be making his UFC debut here and he has a tough task ahead of him. He looks like he could deserve to be in the big show, but he will likely have to start his UFC career with a loss. I think Ramos has him outmatched everywhere here. I think Hubbard’s best path to victory would be to keep this fight standing and put a pace on Ramos that he can’t keep up with. If he can do that, then maybe he can get a late finish or get a win on the scorecards. I have a hard time seeing him win round 1 though and if Ramos can get this fight to the ground I think he should have a solid edge and should pick up a submission. That is what I think is the most likely outcome in this fight so Ramos by Rear-Naked Choke in round 1 or 2 is the pick.
On DraftKings, Ramos is the preferred play. He has one of the higher ceilings on the card and he is -170 to win ITD. To win in the first round is +135. I like him in all formats, but he is $200 cheaper than Luque and $100 cheaper than Do Bronx. I can’t go all-in on these guys because I think they all get finishes and I am not sure who scores more. I will be getting exposure to all of them, but I prefer Luque over them all which will take away from my Ramos exposure. I also slightly prefer Do Bronx but that is a closer argument in my opinion and if you would rather load up on Ramos instead that is fine. I just might end up being underweight to Ramos because I go overweight on the other two. All three are great plays though so get exposure. Hubbard is a GPP only shot. Maybe he can wear Ramos out and win late. I doubt it though. At most I’ll have 1 GPP lineup with him probably.
Winner – Davi Ramos via 1st round Submission
Charles Oliveira $9,300 vs Nik Lentz $6,900
Charles Oliveira
Age: 29
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 74”
Gym: Charles Oliveira Gold Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 14-8-1
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -355
This is an odd matchup. Oliveira has been looking phenomenal lately. He has 4 consecutive choke finishes, and after defeating Teymur, I thought he would get a high-profile matchup. Instead, he’s fighting Nik Lentz for the third time. The first fight was a no contest, and the second Oliveira won vi guillotine. I’m not sure why he took this trilogy with Lentz, but it should be a good scrap. Oliveira is a well-rounded fighter with good stand up skills. He is long for the division & likes to work behind a front kick to the body & straight punches on the feet. He is light on his feet and has good outside leg kicks. He has a nice uppercut to overhand right, right hook combination. He has a stinging & accurate straight-right hand. He has a good check left hook. He landed a nasty lead elbow in his last match, that really rocked Teymur. He likes to throw step-in knees to the body & flying knees to the body & head. He has good spinning back kicks to the body & head, and he will throw jumping front kicks to the body. He will throw spinning back fists as well. He will throw round kicks to the head. He keeps a very high guard and stands tall, which leaves him susceptible to body shots. He has been hurt to the body by Donald Cerrone & Anthony Pettis. He does have good power, having 6 KO/TKO’s, but none in his 22 fight UFC career. He dropped David Teymur in his last match before jumping on a submission. He has a good chin, and decent durability, but he has shown quit before and has been finished by KO/TKO 4 times.
Oliveira is the most dangerous submission artist in UFC history with a UFC record, 13 career submissions. Oliveira is a strong wrestler and will even pull guard to get the fight to the mat. He has excellent duck unders into the clinch and will get double underhooks and dump his opponents. He has nasty knees in the clinch, and he likes to get the Muay Thai plum, land a couple knees and jump on a guillotine, darce, or anaconda. He already has a guillotine finish of Nik Lentz. He is deceptively strong & can muscle fighters in the clinch. He is good at circling to the back and getting the standing rear naked choke or getting his hooks in and pulling his opponent into back mount. His rear naked chokes are excellent & he has an unreal squeeze. When he gets his arm under that chin, his opponents are usually tapping within seconds. He has great reactive double legs, and when he gets on top he has phenomenal guard passes. He will move into mount, where he will posture up and land elbows to force opponents to give their back. If he can’t get takedowns he will attempt single legs & then pull guard. In guard, he has super-fast hips and is extremely dangerous with triangles & armbars. He has great leg locks as well and does a good job of using them to move into top position. He tends to get too aggressive at times against other elite BJJ fighters and he has been submitted a few times. He has 16 career submissions & has been submitted 3 times. Usually when he wins, it’s a finish & when he loses, he’s getting finished. He has decent cardio and can go all three rounds, he’s a veteran. Oliveira in this fight, I see pressuring Lentz, and trying to force him into bad takedown attempts. I think Oliveira is still faster & if he can walk him down, land his front kicks, straight punches, he will have success. I think if Oliveira can control the pace of the fight, he will most likely tire Lentz out. I could see Oliveira going for clinch takedowns of his own and looking for a submission as well.
Nik Lentz
Age: 34
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 68”
Gym: American Combat Club
From: Minnesota
UFC Record: 14-1-1-6
Fight Matrix: 21
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +295
Nik Lentz has had a career resurgence since moving to the Combat Club. He has won 3/4 fights & cashed as a big underdog in his last match with Scott Holtzman. He has changed his style to be more fan friendly and prefers to strike much more now. Lentz is an aggressive southpaw. He has nice, heavy low kicks. He will throw jab, left hooks. He has good body kicks. He will counter jabs with overhand lefts and has some OK pop in that shot. He has a nasty right hook & he sits down & throws it with power. He showed off a nice head kick, dropping & ultimately finishing Maynard after landing it. He is also good at catching kicks himself & taking opponents down or striking off it. He does have 8 career KO/TKO’s. He is tough & has a good chin only being finished twice in his career.
Nik Lentz is a grinder, and grappling is his bread & butter. He does a good job of using punches to close the distance or just taking shots to get inside and get in the clinch. He likes to get the single collar clinch & push opponents to the cage. He has good knees to the body & head and great elbows. He has good double legs, as well as body lock takedowns. Lentz in his last match was dominant in controlling Holtzman against the cage, and landing trip takedowns. On top, he has great ground & pound. He will throw nasty elbows, good punches & slow cooks a lot of his opponents with a steady stream of shots. He is very opportunistic with submissions & has a great guillotine. He has 11 career submissions & has only been submitted twice in his career. Lentz tends to tire in fights. I feel cardio was a main reason why Oliveira was able to win both fights. Lentz found success pressuring & going forward on Oliveira in the second match, and that’s what he needs to do here. When he lets Oliveira fight at range, he gets picked apart, and when Oliveira comes forward & can get his clinch game going, it’s even worse for him. Oliveira hurt him bad with a knee to the body in the clinch & whenever Lentz isn’t pressuring, Oliveira is the better fighter. When he goes first & throws in combination he has success. Oliveira stands high with his chin in the air at times & if Lentz eats Oliveira’s shots to land a combination & push him against the cage, he could ultimately break him that way. He didn’t have much success in either fight in the grappling. He did get some takedowns, but he was always being threatened with submissions & or getting swept in Oliveira’s guard. He was submitted in both fights even though the first was changed to a NC due to the illegal knee. I think if he does get takedowns, he needs to get body locks where he ends up in side control & not in the guard of Charles. In round two in their second fight, he had some top control & landed some decent elbows when he did this. If he can control the pace & walk down Oliveira while keeping the volume high, and hold him against the cage, he could take a decision or even rock & finish Oliveira. He was able to hurt Oliveira in the first two fights, but overall, Oliveira looked confident in eating the shots of Lentz. In both fights he eventually started walking him down, being willing to take the shots of Lentz, and hurting Lentz himself. Lentz claims to be a much-improved striker now & this is his chance to prove it.
I don’t understand why these two need to fight again. Oliveira already beat him twice but was later turned into a No Contest due to an illegal knee. Either way, we saw he is clearly the better fighter and that is why the line is this high. Oliveira has looked to improve a good bit as well and I don’t see Lentz having an edge anywhere here. I think it’s KO or bust for Lentz, but I see Oliveira getting the better of the exchanges on the feet. If this fight hits the mat, then that is Oliveira’s world. I think he gets a RNC submission or a guillotine at some point in this fight and adding to his UFC submission record. Hopefully the UFC will give him a ranked fight if he can get the 5th straight submission victory.
Do Bronx is my preferred play here and I will be fading Lentz. I feel good about Do Bronx getting the finish here and he is -185 to win ITD. He has been looking better than ever and he has already finished Lentz twice. I think he is a solid play in all formats here and I think he scores 95-105 DK points. I do like Luque more though. If I can find a way to move up $100 to get more Luque, I will. But I will be overweight to Do Bronx as well and he will be in probably 40% or so of my lineups. He might make my cash lineup as well. Lentz is in play for the knockout and if he gets it he probably wins somebody $25k. But he is GPP only and that somebody won’t be me if it happens.
Winner – Charles Oliveira via 2nd round Submission
Vicente Luque $9,400 vs Derrick Krantz $6,500
Vicente Luque
Age: 27
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: Combat Club
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 8-2
Fight Matrix: 27
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -600
Once again, an opponent pulls out on Vicente Luque. He was scheduled to face perennial top 10 fighter Neil Magny, but Magny has been pulled due to a USADA issue. Luque will now be taking on Derrick Krantz, who’s a long-time veteran of the sport. Luque had a FOTY candidate in his last match. He had a back & forth war with Bryan Barberena & ultimately Luque finished him in the dying moments of the fight. Vincente Luque is a very good prospect. He is well-rounded, but his striking is what is impressive. He is very technical and long for the division, so he uses that by throwing a nice snappy jab and inside and outside leg kicks. He likes to throw a jab to a straight or jab to an overhand combination and if he lands flush, he has one punch KO power. He is a good athlete; his hands are very fast and loose and it’s hard to see what he is going to throw next. He will attack with jumping knees when he gets you close to the cage. He will attack to the body with hooks and does a good job of mixing up his target and coming in on good angles. He has a hands high, come forward style and does a good job of cutting off the cage and making you fight off your back foot. When he gets in the pocket, he will unload with overhand rights and straight-lefts. He has a good chin and is willing to take a shot to give one. In his last match he struggled a bit with a fighter who constantly pressured him & ate his best shots. Luque isn’t used to fighters taking his shots & not going down, and he took some bombs from Barberena when Barberena was able to walk through his shots. Ultimately though Luque still dug deep & found a way to finish him. Luque has 8 KO/TKO’s, including 5 knockouts in his last 6 wins. He has never been finished with strikes. He was dropped in his last fight, but I don’t think he was seriously hurt.
Vincente Luque has solid grappling skills, he has good takedown defense and good takedowns against the cage. He will go for singles and doubles against the cage and has decent body locks in the open mat. He has very nice submissions and his chokes are extremely dangerous. He has a nasty d’arce and anaconda choke. He has good top control and is very active with ground & pound and submissions. He had 6 career submissions & been submitted twice himself. His cardio is very good, and he keeps a heavy pace on fighters. He is a finisher having finished 14 of his 15 wins. He has finished all 8 of his UFC wins. Luque needs to use his forward pressure, cut off the cage & throw his combinations. Krantz likes to leap into range & can struggle to find his distance at times. I feel early on in the fight if Krantz is struggling with distance Luque could pressure him & take him out early.
Derrick Krantz
Age: 31
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Team 515
From: Texas
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 75
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +450
Derrick Krantz, is finally getting his UFC opportunity after over 30 pro fights. He has been in the cage with some big names such as Rich Clementi, Andrey Koreshkov & Dustin Poirier & I think he will be ready for the moment. Derrick Krantz is a dangerous fighter & comes in to finish fights. Krantz is not the most athletic fighter, but he has power & is coming off a big knockout win in March. He has a solid jab & is always looking to land a lead left hook. He rarely throws the jab and doesn’t use a ton of set ups. He has power in his left hand & can drop opponents. He will leap into an overhand right or right hook & then follow with the left hook. He will also leap into a left hook, right hook combination. He will throw an uppercut, left hook combination. He has a good front leg round kick to the body and will throw the rear leg body & head kick. He can get stuck on the outside & struggles to close the distance at times. He doesn’t have a lot of variety in his striking game & instead of setting things up he tries to leap into shots. Fighters who are more athletic or technical than him, can easily see those shots coming & move out of the way or counter. He has power & if he can land a clean bomb on Luque, he could shock a lot of people. He has 9 KO/TKO’s & has been KO/TKO’d twice.
Krantz is a solid wrestler & has good takedown defense. He has had trouble on the mat with Jiu-Jitsu fighters & has been submitted a few times. Krantz likes to use his overhands to get inside & get double underhooks. He will drive opponents to the cage where he has a strong double leg. He has a good reactive double leg as well. He has good rear naked chokes when he gets on top and will look to lock in front chokes when opponents try to stand up. His takedown defense is strong. He has a good sprawl, heavy hips, and wall walks well. He will widen his base near the cage & is hard to takedown there. In grapple heavy fights he does tend to tire & then becomes easier to takedown. He had a close contest against James Nakashima where he stuffed several takedowns vs a strong wrestler. When he does get taken down his Jiu-Jitsu is lacking. He allows fighters to move to dominant positions and is susceptible to being submitted. He has been submitted 5 times in his career. He does have 11 submissions of his own. Krantz needs to go for broke here. He has to go in with the mindset of kill or be killed. I think he should try to throw bombs into takedown attempts & grind on Luque. If he can get top position or grind him against the cage, he won’t be at range, and in trouble of being knocked out. I feel he is going to struggle closing the distance & landing shots at range. He needs to make it a dirty fight to win.
Luque is getting this Krantz matchup on a few days’ notice. He was scheduled to fight Neil Magny and he was pulled due to a failed test with USADA. Now, Krantz is stepping in and facing one of the toughest guys in the division. Luque has been on a roll and his only loss in his last 9 UFC fights was against Leon Edwards who is no slouch himself. Krantz is a long-time veteran of the sport and he has over 30 professional MMA fights and has fought some decent names in other organizations. I think he is a fighter who can get wins in the UFC, but I don’t see this being the fight for that. It is good that he got his foot in the door but Luque should win this fight and he should be able to win however he wants. I think a knockout is the most likely path to victory for him, but he could get a submission as well. He could also wear Krantz out for 3 rounds and get a clear decision. He is my most confident pick on the card and I don’t hate him as a parlay piece even at that steep price. DraftKings is probably the best place to invest in Luque this week though.
On DraftKings, Luque is the best play on the board. I don’t go “all-in” often but he is a guy that you can go all-in with. We are getting a price discount on him now that he is the biggest favorite on the card and he is -245 to win ITD. He is also -120 to win via TKO and +100 to win in round 1. Everything points to him scoring over 100 DK points here and he will be the chalk of the week for good reason. I will have Luque in more than 60% of my lineups this week and if you want to be overweight to the field then you’ll need to be over that as well. Krantz is a GPP only shot and that is just because it would kill off the ~60% of the field if he was able to win and he is only $6.5k so he allows you to pay up for a lot. A fade is the best way to go with him but if you want to take a shot in the big $15 tourney then I think that is fine because he will be sub 5% owned most likely.
Winner – Vicente Luque via 1st round (T)KO
Megan Anderson $8,500 vs Felicia Spencer $7,700
Megan Anderson
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: Glory MMA & Fitness
From: Australia
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 3
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -165
Megan Anderson is looking to build off what was a very weird win in her last match. She won via TKO, but it was due to her toe poking Cat Zingano in the eye, when she threw a head kick, and she could no longer see. I’m sure she will be looking for her first uncontroversial UFC win. Anderson is a big, athletic girl. She is 6’0 tall, but decently athletic & moves well. Anderson is a heavy-handed striker with good forward pressure. She has a good jab & strong straight-right hand. Her right hand is very accurate & powerful. She has a nasty overhand left. In close range she will unload with straight punches, hook combinations, and she has fast hand speed. She will mix in head kicks at the end of her combinations. When she gets fighters backed against the cage, that’s when she’s at her best, and can really batter fighters. She will use spinning back fists into straight punches. She does a good job of doubling and tripling up with a left or right hook, when fighters try to circle their back off the cage. She has nasty step-in knees to the body & head, along with great elbows when she gets fighters against the cage. On the feet, she is a dangerous fighter, and will finish opponents when she has them hurt. She will throw a ton of volume and not let up until the fight is over. She has finished her last 4 wins via KO/TKO. She has never been finished by strikes, and I feel she will be very hard to knockout as she is a huge woman.
Anderson is not a great grappler. She will be getting a second consecutive training camp that revolves around fighting a wrestler. She stands very tall, and it makes it easy for fighters to duck under and get in on her legs or clinch her up. She is very strong and is able to defend initial takedowns with heavy hips. She gets taken down more by being too aggressive when she closes the distance with knees or punches and can get taken down easily. She did show some decent bottom work against Holly Holm. She was able to use her legs to off balance Holm and attack with a leg lock in round 1 and her long reach makes it harder for fighters to pass her guard. She seems green in certain facets on the ground. She was holding onto a guillotine in side control, and allowing Holm to pass to mount, & get a dominant position. She doesn’t seem to have much experience fighting off her back. She was submitted by Cindy Dandois as well, who is another grappler. Anderson needs to stay off her back in this fight. If she can keep this fight standing, she definitely will have an advantage with the standup over Spencer. If she is put on her back or put on the cage, she cannot stay there, she has to get back to her feet or circle off the cage. Spencer doesn’t shoot takedowns in space & relies on getting them in the clinch. Anderson is strongest defending takedowns there. I do feel she is someone who has the intangibles to improve rapidly along with the build and athleticism. She needs to dig underhooks on the takedown attempts, and make Spencer pay when they are at range. Anderson will know what Spencer wants to do in this fight, and that’s wrestle. Against Holly Holm I feel she thought she was going to get a striking fight and was surprised. If Anderson can push Spencer backwards, get her towards the cage and let go with her combinations, she can hurt Spencer and even finish her.
Felicia Spencer
Age: 28
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145
Reach: N/A
Gym: The Jungle MMA & Fitness
From: Canada
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: +145
Felicia Spencer is 6-0 with 4 finishes. She has fought all six fights in Invicta & is coming off the biggest win of her career against Pam Sorensen. She is getting a big opportunity to upset a pretty big name & jump right into the title picture at 145 lbs. Spencer is a grappler with good kicks, but no boxing. She relies solely on kicks & strikes such as superman punches or superman elbows to get inside. She throws a lot of leg kicks. I feel some of her leg kicks are very lazy & a good striker could counter. She throws a lot of hook kicks & front kicks to the body & head. She will throw a superman punch into a round house kick to the body. She will throw a body kick, left hook or a jab, body kick. Her punches seem like the have really no power at all on them. She will close the distance with elbows. When fighters can back her up, she really doesn’t have much. She isn’t fast or the greatest athlete, but she’s very tough & will continue to plod forward. We haven’t seen her fight really anyone who throws with fire power & it will be interesting how she reacts to the harder shots of Anderson. This is a striker vs grappler match, and if Spencer can’t get the fight to the mat I think she definitely will lose. Spencer only has 1 TKO on the mat and isn’t a standing knockout threat. She is undefeated, tough & rugged with a good chin.
Spencer is a solid grappler, and very strong when she gets in top position. I don’t think her entries into takedowns are the best, but she is very physically strong in the clinch. She has good trips, especially against the cage, & nice single legs. She will take the back from standing position. She is very heavy on top & has excellent back takes. She will flatten opponents out, land some punches & then lock in the rear naked choke. She can get a bit overzealous on top & get shucked off. She also can end up on her back being too aggressive going for takedowns & getting reversed. Her takedowns to me aren’t super great, she really struggled to takedown Pam Sorenson, and was reversed several times. She can struggle to get inside because she doesn’t have dangerous striking & bad defense, so she can shoot some bad takedown shots. That could be an issue in this match, because she is just 5’6 and Anderson is going to have a significant reach advantage. She is relentless & will be undeterred by getting denied. She was eventually able to get the back & get the rear naked choke in round 4. Off her back, she is hard to hold down & will create scrambles into another takedown entry. She can control opponents against the cage. She has 3 submissions including back to back rear naked chokes. She has good cardio when she can grapple, but if forced to strike, she tends to tire & look uncomfortable. Spencer is a grinder & needs to get inside get in on Megan against the cage or get it on the ground. If she can take top position she is a black belt and would most likely have a big advantage over Anderson. Spencer will most likely take the back & look for the rear naked choke.
I think this line is so close because people saw Holly Holm outwrestle Megan Anderson. Holm isn’t even a wrestler or ground fighter, and Spencer is. However, I don’t think Anderson prepared for takedowns against Holm at all and she was more caught off guard against a stronger fighter and better athlete. I don’t see Spencer being the stronger or better athlete, but she will be going for takedowns. This time, Anderson will know that, and she will be training to stop that. On the feet, this fight isn’t close. Anderson will beat her up on the feet and I don’t think it would last 15-minutes if Spencer is stuck standing. Spencer is going to need to be all the way in or all the way out here. She needs to keep this fight against the cage or on the ground for her to have the edge. If she can get it to the ground, she can use the wrestling to win a decision or she could lock up a submission as well. I just think Anderson is going to be able to keep this standing or get back to her feet and I think she gets a TKO at some point in this fight.
On DraftKings, Anderson is actually my preferred play here. I expect Spencer to be somewhat popular this week, so I will be underweight on her, but I’ll be overweight on a low owned Anderson. I think if Spencer struggles to get takedowns she is fucked here. She is also nowhere near the athlete of Holly Holm, so I can’t say just because Holly took her down easily that Spencer will have the same success. I wouldn’t be shocked to see her throw some “Travis Browne elbows” against the cage while Spencer is looking for takedowns and maybe that even gets the knockout. I think if Spencer is stuck standing it will be a matter of time before the ref steps in to save her. I won’t be heavy on Anderson this week, but she will be in more than one lineup and if she gets a 1st round (T)KO like I think she can, then maybe she is the one that helps me win the $25k this week. Or chop up 1st place like the previous two weeks…
Winner – Megan Anderson via 1st round (T)KO
Antonio Carlos Junior $8,700 vs Ian Heinisch $7,500
Antonio Carlos Jr
Age: 29
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 79”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 7-2-1
Fight Matrix: 13
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -170
Antonio Carlos Junior is finally returning after a year layoff. He has had to pull out of back to back fights, due to injury, and hopefully he is ready to go here. He has struggled to get top guys to sign the dotted line against him and needs to prove himself with yet another win here to get a top 15 opportunity. He has won 5 consecutive fights, with 4 rear naked chokes. Carlos Junior is big & moves well, but I wouldn’t say he’s the greatest athlete. He is getting better at his striking, but he still needs to do a lot of work. He has a wide stance & solid in & out movement. He likes to pressure forward & make the cage small for opponents. He has a nice jab & heavy one-two. His straight-right hand has power. He can lean back with his chin right up in the air, after he jabs. He has a good uppercut. He has very heavy leg kicks. He has hard round & front kicks to the body. He likes to throw a jab, head kick combination. He will pull back with his chin up in the air, when fighters blitz him as well. His last three fights, and most of his fights there is not much striking. His last fight was probably the best his striking has ever looked. He was more comfortable exchanging in the pocket with Tim Boetsch & was much faster. Against Heinisch, I don’t see him being comfortable striking with an explosive, fast guy who can shut his lights out, and will look to wrestle much more quickly. He has no KO/TKO’s & has been TKO’d one time.
Antonio Carlos Junior is one of the best BJJ fighters in the sport. He is dynamic with his Jiu-Jitsu for a heavier weight fighter. Carlos Junior doesn’t have the best takedowns, but he is very strong for the division, and will get the body lock and drag you down. He will get double underhooks and put you against cage and work from there. He will throw knees to the body in the clinch. He is good at shooting singles from the outside. He was able to push Boetsch to the cage using a single & then landed an explosive double leg slam. He is very good on top. He is excellent at guard passing & will move from guard to half guard to mount with ease. Once he takes the mount, he will throw heavy shots as well as look for arm triangles. He is very good at getting the back mount especially for a big guy and is good at scrambling. When he takes the back, his control & finishing ability is superb. He has 6 RNC’s in his career & four in his last five fights. He can be taken down himself. When fighters can close the distance & get him against the cage, they can control him against the cage & put him on his back. Marvin Vettori was able to take him down a couple times & land some nice ground & pound. He will attack with a high guard off his back and will throw nice elbows while looking for armbars or triangles. He will look for leg locks as well to sweep to top position. I feel if Heinisch takes him down & can posture up, he will have success, but he needs to be careful. Carlos Junior has 8 submissions in his career & has never been submitted. ACJ needs to get this fight to the mat. ACJ doesn’t shoot double legs, so I assume he will be trying to take Heinisch down against the cage. If he can get on top & takes the back like previous Heinisch opponents, I see him getting a finish. He needs to stay off his back & avoid backing up with his chin high.
Ian Heinisch
Age: 30
Height: 5’11
Weight: 185
Reach: 71”
Gym: Factory X Muay Thai
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 37
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +150
Ian Heinisch had a huge win in his UFC debut against tough veteran Cezar Ferreira. If he can beat Muntante & Shoe Face back to back, that will be a massive statement. He was scheduled to fight Tom Breese in March, but Breese pulled out on the day of the fight. Heinisch has been through the struggle in life, battling back from true adversity & he will never fold in the cage. Heinisch is an explosive powerhouse who goes in there to take your head off. He is very athletic & puts the pressure on right away. He is constantly feinting the takedown & trying to come over the top with hooks & overhands. He has nice round & front kicks to the body. He can throw the kicks without setting them up and be hit clean or taken down off them. He does a great job of closing the distance and throwing a left hook into a double leg or faking a double leg and coming over the top with his right hand. He has massive power, and one shot can put fighters completely unconscious. He has 4 career KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes and is a rough and rugged fighter who I think you would have to put out to stop him.
Heinisch is a great wrestler. He is very physically strong & wears fighters out in extended grappling situations. He is always attacking & aggressive with his Jiu-Jitsu. He is a former Division ll college wrestler, and he has explosive double leg shots. He does a great job of setting his shots up with punches. He will stalk opponents to the cage, close the distance and shoot double and single leg shots. When he takes fighters down, he works quickly and likes to get to half guard where he will rain down heavy elbows. He can put fighters unconscious with elbows and is a scary individual in top position. He does a great job of putting his opponents head against the cage & throwing G&P where it’s hard to throw up submissions. His takedown defense isn’t bad, but Cezar Ferreira was able to time double leg takedowns off Heinisch’s kicks multiple times. He has good chokes and will attack with guillotines and front chokes. He jumped on a guillotine against Cesar Ferreira, and almost finished. He also almost finished an armbar at the end of round 1. When he was taken down he was able to attack with submissions & eventually scramble to his feet. He wore Ferreira out and took over down the stretch in the fight. He did get his back taken against Justin Sumter and was submitted by Maluko Perez. He has 2 submissions & one submission loss. Heinisch is still a bit raw to me but has a ton of potential. I feel Heinisch is the much more explosive fighter on the feet here. He has to pressure Carlos Junior, make him uncomfortable & land a big shot as he’s backing up or force him into bad takedown attempts. If he can get top position against ACJ, he should look to pass his guard, posture up & try to finish with ground & pound. ACJ has faded in the past & broke, & Heinisch’s pace & cardio is elite. If Heinisch can be the one controlling the action, pushing ACJ back & staying off his back, he has a good chance to win the fight.
This should be a good fight and could be close as well. The biggest edge either fighter has in this fight is Carlos Junior’s edge on the ground. If he can get this fight to the ground, then that will be his world and he could get the submission or use the ground game to help him on the scorecards. I do think Heinisch is the better striker in this match, but his edge on the feet isn’t close to as big as ACJ’s edge on the ground. I think both guys have solid potential in this sport and this matchup should boost the winner into a ranked fight. Heinisch is going to need to either stuff takedowns or tire ACJ out to get the win. He could get a KO on the feet or win a striking based decision if he can keep it there. However, Heinisch was taken down 5 times in his last fight and ACJ does go for a decent number of takedowns. I have to think this fight will spend a good amount of time on the ground and that is why I am going to pick ACJ to get the win here and I think he gets it done by submission.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is ACJ. I expect Heinisch to be one of the most popular underdogs and I don’t want to go overweight on him. I am hoping that leads to ACJ being under owned because I’d rather get my leverage on him. I think both sides of the fight are solid to target but I could see Heinisch being 30% owned here and I am not willing to get leverage when it’s that high. I do think he is GPP only though because he has a low floor and there are cheaper punts. If you are confident he gets the win then I would say go ahead and use him in cash, but that won’t be the route I take. I may even get ballsy and full fade him and his ownership. Not sure about that yet though. I do like ACJ here though and he is one of my favorite plays in the $8k range. I think he is playable in all formats and I see him being the more dominant fighter on Saturday and getting a finish. Heinisch is live though.
Winner – Antonio Carlos Junior via 2nd round Submission
Rafael Dos Anjos $8,200 vs Kevin Lee $8,000
Rafael Dos Anjos
Age: 34
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 17-9
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -115
Rafael Dos Anjos is once again returning against an extremely difficult matchup. This is the third elite wrestler he has had to face in a row. This is a similar thing that the UFC did to Demian Maia making him fight Woodley, Covington, & Usman back to back, in which he lost all three. RDA is going to be the more experienced fighter at 170 lbs & in five round fights and won’t have to deal with the same type of size discrepancy as he had to in his last two fights. Rafael Dos Anjos is one of the best fighters in UFC history, in my opinion. He is a former UFC light weight champion and has one of the best resumes at 155 ever. He is a great, well-rounded fighter. A nasty Muay Thai striker, and black belt in Jiu-Jitsu with good wrestling. He has a heavy, forward pressure style and throws very high volume. He has a nice lead straight and leaping right hook. He will throw the left straight and left overhand very fast down the pipe. He has very hard body and leg kicks and throws body kicks early and often. He will leap in with an uppercut. RDA has great fakes, feints and has good head movement. He is a much more balanced and technical striker than Lee. RDA doesn’t have huge power and doesn’t have many finishes by strikes. In this fight, it will be interesting to see if his shots have enough impact to stun Lee, who hasn’t shown the greatest chin. RDA will hang in the pocket and wing overhands in the pocket. He was fighting against the cage a lot of the fight against Woodley, Covington & Usman, and that’s why he lost the fight. RDA will want to make Lee move backwards with his striking and boss the fight. He can’t win this match backing up. Dos Anjos has 5 KO/TKO’s in his career. Dos Anjos has been KO/TKO’d 3 times, but he has a hell of a chin. He can take big shots & keep coming.
RDA is not a bad grappler at all, he just has had to go up against the elite of the elite lately. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu & has solid offensive wrestling himself. He will rarely go for takedowns, but he has a nice double leg against the fence. He will occasionally shoot singles at range, but he is always usually transitioning back to the double leg. When he gets on top he is very good. He has a heavy top game, and uses pressure passing to move into dominant positions. He is very good at just beating opponents up from the guard with shots as well and defending submissions. He has stayed safe in the guards of fighters such as Anthony Pettis & Nate Diaz. He has a very nice kimura from half guard and will also look for arm triangles. He likes to take the back & get rear naked chokes as well. RDA has a good Muay Thai plum and knees in the clinch. He is good at making fighters pay for attempting to take him down and popping right back up when they do. RDA has always struggled with wrestlers. Losing to Covington, Usman, Khabib, Guida, Tibau, and Tyson Griffin. He also had a very questionable decision win vs Evan Dunham. He is much better now at defending takedowns and using the cage to get off his back. He will get wide against the cage, and does a good job breaking the posture of his opponents and landing nice elbows. He has good knees to the body. He needs to beat Lee up as he tries to take him down to be effective. He has a very good sprawl, and when he does get taken down, he will bounce right back up. He is active off his back with sweeps & kimura attempts, and usually is back to his feet quickly. He landed a nasty up kick on Usman in his last match off his back. RDA has 9 submissions & has never been submitted in his career. He has great cardio and doesn’t slow down much even in 5 round wars like against Covington and Tony Ferguson. For RDA to win this fight he needs to do a better job of circling and not letting himself get backed against the cage. If he can make Lee work and shoot takedowns from the outside, I think he could tire him out. He needs to attack the body with hooks, straight punches, and throw leg kicks. In boxing range, I think he will have a big advantage & he needs to look to sit down & throw heavier shots in the later rounds to take Lee out.
Kevin Lee
Age: 26
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: Xtreme Couture’s MMA
From: Michigan
UFC Record: 10-4
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -105
The Mo Town Phenom Kevin Lee will be looking to bounce back from a very bad performance in his last match. He was fighting his rival Al Iaquinta in a rematch and was defeated again. He deviated from his usual game plan & decided to try to show off his striking more which was a bad decision. He was soundly out struck & caught with some big shots. He was continuously going southpaw, where his defense was subpar & he was getting tagged. He has moved up to 170 lbs for this fight, and definitely needs to go back to his bread & butter which is the wrestling. Lee has improved his boxing, and trains with a respected boxing coach in Dewey Cooper. He has a strong jab, and nice one-two. He will lead with a straight-right hand, and it’s his most powerful punch. He likes to counter with left hooks as fighters close the distance, and he has the power to make opponents respect him on the feet. He throws a lot of kicks, hard leg & body kicks. He will throw front kicks to the body & head and landed a nice round head kick on Francisco Trinaldo. Lee is good at changing stances and throwing kicks to the open side. He can throw kicks with both legs & from both stances fluidly. He also does a good job of faking level changes and coming over the top with overhands. Kevin Lee can lose focus at times after he lands shots, and not defend himself and is susceptible to counters. He gets caught admiring his work. Against Al Iaquinta he got caught with some huge shots especially as he got tired in the later rounds. He showed a solid chin and ate some big shots. I feel his chin is a bit questionable, as he has been rocked several times, but he has good recoverability. At 170 lbs I expect him to probably be more durable. He has only been finished with strikes one time. He has big power, but only two KO/TKO’s because he’s more of a wrestler.
Kevin Lee was a huge lightweight, and super physical. It will be interesting how his physicality transfers into 170. Fighting a former LW in RDA is a good introduction for his first time at WW. Lee has great double leg takedowns and will drive his opponents to the cage. He is extremely physically strong, and when he gets his hands locked he will slam his opponents. His long reach allows him to get in on the legs of his opponents from a long way out. He is a good chain wrestler, shooting single legs in space, getting to a double leg and even having good clinch takedowns. On top, he is amazing, he has nasty ground & pound, sick elbows & hammerfists. He is very heavy on top and has great back takes. He has great rear naked chokes and has gotten them against great grapplers. He showed phenomenal cardio against Edson Barboza, pushing an incredible pace, and surviving and recovering from a spinning back kick which almost KO’d him. The game plan is set to beat RDA & he needs to execute it. Lee needs to forward pressure RDA to the cage, tie him up, and wear him out against the cage with takedowns. He can’t get cute & try to show off his striking too much. I do feel maybe after he gets a few takedowns & some damage off, he could have success in the striking like he did vs Edson. If he can get takedowns & have Dos Anjos backed up against the cage he will win this fight.
If Kevin Lee wrestled more against Al Iaquinta he would have won that fight. If he did that, I would have bet him here. He has the perfect skill set to beat RDA here with his dominant wrestling and top game. He just didn’t use it in his last fight and he lost the fight because of it. Now he is going up to 170 lbs and his first fight will be a 5-round fight. With him not being used to fighting with that extra weight, I am not sure if he could wrestle at a high rate for 5-rounds even if he was smart enough to do so knowing that is his best path to victory. RDA has been fighting at 170 lbs for a while now and he has had 5 round experience against high-level wrestlers. He did lose those fights because they were both against dominant wrestlers, but if Lee wants to keep testing his striking then this is a bad matchup for him. RDA is the better striker of the two and I think he will have the better gas tank as well. I think he also will come in with a smart game plan. For those reasons, I am going to pick RDA to get his hand raised here and I think he will get it done by TKO or a judge’s decision. If he loses, it’s because Lee learned from that Iaquinta loss and takes advantages of the edges he has in this fight.
Here is our all-in fight. I won’t have a single lineup without this fight and neither should you. It is also such a tough fight to call that you should be stacking in cash and taking the 100+ points and guaranteed win. After building some lineups I will say that it looks like Lee will actually be my preferred play since I will have higher ownership to him. I like that he is cheaper, and he just fits easier into lineups where I use the full $50k salary. I also like duplicating my RDA lineups to make the same thing with Lee and hope I am a lock for the nuts going into the main event. Those are what will put me higher on Lee, but I wouldn’t talk you out of going even 80/20 on RDA. I will likely be closer to 70/30 or 60/40 in favor of Lee but whoever wins this fight will be on the $25k lineup and this fight is so close I wouldn’t feel comfortable going more than 70/30 on either one. I do expect it to be a fun one and I think we get ~140-150 total points from this fight. That could even make it playable in some smaller field GPPs.
Winner – Rafael Dos Anjos via 4th round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t takedown a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://MMAoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/
- Bets are on a 1-10u scale with 1u = $100.
- I am 77-47 for +255.49u (+$25,549) since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets.