BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC 237 Location – Rio De Janerio, Brazil
Thanks for purchasing my UFC 237 DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card in Brazil. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a lot of money from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to get my 3rd seat this week to max it if I can. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $30k prize, and then I will probably take a couple of shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Talita Bernardo $9,300 vs Viviane Araujo $6,900
Talita Bernardo
Age: 32
Height: 5’4
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Paraná Vale Tudo
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 19
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: NA
Talita Bernardo earned her first UFC win last time out, and now will be searching for her first UFC win streak. She got a pretty dominant decision victory over Sarah Moras her last time out. She was expecting to face Jessica- Rose Clark in this spot, and then Melissa Gatto, and now is facing UFC newcomer Viviane Araujo on a week’s short notice. Bernardo has actually faced pretty solid competition since entering the UFC. She has already fought two top fifteen fighters in Marion Reneau & Irene Aldana. Bernardo isn’t a great striker. She will throw a jab & one-two. She has a decent overhand right. She will throw decent leg & body kicks. She doesn’t move her head and stands flat footed with poor defensive movement, so she does get tagged quite a bit. She is tough and has a good chin and will stick in there and try to find a way to take it to the ground. If she cannot find her takedown and is forced to strike, she gasses badly. She is always looking to get the fight to the mat and is clearly learning and uncomfortable on the feet. She has never gotten a KO/TKO & has been TKO’d one time, on the mat, after gassing out.
Bernardo is a Jiu-Jitsu black belt and has a pretty solid top game. She has good timing on her double leg takedowns and can get them at times, but she lacks the explosion to drive through on most takedowns. She does a good job of getting in on a single leg and being relentless trying to finish. If she can’t, she will pull guard and try to use a half guard sweep to end up on top. She does a good job of getting double underhooks in the clinch and looking for trips. She seems strong in the clinch and shows good clinch control against the cage. Once she gets on top, she is heavy, and likes to use pressure passing to move into side control and ultimately the mount where she will look for armbars. She does a good job of getting the back and getting rear naked chokes. She has no problem pulling guard, and she is solid off her back. She has good leg locks and uses them to sweep to top position, she also has a decent armbar from guard. She can get desperate trying to get it to the ground and exhaust herself and then become more susceptible to being finished. She got mounted and finished with strikes late in round 3 against Marion Reneau. Bernardo will look to work her takedowns and get a dominant position while trying to lock in a submission. Bernardo has 4 submissions & never has been submitted.
Viviane Araujo
Age: 32
Height: 5’5
Weight: 115 lbs
Reach: NA
Gym: Cerrado MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NA
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: NA
This fight was booked on super short notice, so I haven’t had time to dig into this much and we have no betting lines to work off of. I am guessing Talita will be a decent favorite and probably even about where the DK salaries. I could be wrong though. Araujo looks OK on the feet and on the mat, but she doesn’t look like a prospect the UFC has been eyeing. She just happened to be ready on a week notice and is Brazilian. I actually think her striking is probably better than Talita’s, but she is going to be the smaller fighter here and I don’t think she will be able to stop the takedowns.
I see Talita being the bully in this fight and the better fighter on the ground. I think she will be shooting for takedowns right away and I think it’s only a matter of time before she locks up a submission.
On DraftKings, Talita is the preferred play and she is in play in all formats. I don’t see this fight going the distance and I like the grappling upside of Talita and I feel like she should be a decent sized favorite. I am not sure what my exposure will be to this fight, but I will have Talita in a fair amount of lineups. I may take one shot on Araujo just in case she is better than I am seeing, but if you are making 10 or less lineups a fade on her is likely the best option. If odds come out and they are somewhat close, then I might change my stance on this one.
Winner – Talita Bernardo via 1st round Submission
Raoni Barcelos $9,600 vs Carlos Huachin $6,600
Raoni Barcelos
Age: 34
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Ruas Vale Tudo
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -1000
Raoni Barcelos has looked excellent in his two UFC fights. He has finished both fights, one by KO & one by submission. Barcelos is an impressive striker. He is a great athlete and has very good movement. He has excellent feints, good head movement & very fast in & out. He is excellent at cutting off the cage & making his opponents fight with their backs near the fence. He has a great jab & very good one-two. He has heavy leg kicks. He has nice hook combos. He can close distance very quickly with his right hook. He has a nasty uppercut. He will feint the level change & come up with the uppercut. He will also grab a single leg, let go & come up with an uppercut. He will throw an uppercut, straight-right hand or uppercut, left hook. He has very fast hand speed & is very explosive. He will throw the occasional body kick, along with round & spinning kicks to the head. He can be hit if his opponent can time when he enters, but his defense is very sound. He has big power & has 7 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes.
Raoni Barcelos is a strong wrestler & Jiu-Jitsu world champion. He has competed on the Brazilian national wrestling team and took silver at the pan games in 2006. He has a very good double leg. He has great timing on it, and his uppercut disguises it up extremely well. He has good body lock takedowns, and good singles as well. He will takedown opponents easily when he gets them against the cage. When he gets top position, he has nasty elbows. He has good guard passing & back takes. He will get the rear naked choke. He has good takedown defense, and I haven’t seen very many people shoot on him. In his lone loss, he was taken down, gave his back trying to stand up & was submitted by rear naked choke. Barcelos has two submissions & was submitted in his lone loss. Barcelos is going to want to use his technicality, move and then take this guy down. Huachin is aggressive, throws hard & to me there’s no reason to mess around with that. Barcelos should strike a little bit, move around, use Huachin’s aggressiveness against, him duck under, take him down & go for the finish.
Carlos Huachin
Age: 22
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: PitBull Martial Arts Center
From: Peru
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 179
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +650
Carlos Huachin is getting a very tough, short notice fight in his debut. He is replacing Said Nurmagomedov to take on Raoni Barcelos. A win would catapult him up the rankings. He is fighting out of Peru & PitBull Martial Arts. PitBull Martial Arts has given us basically all the Peruvian fighters in the UFC such as, Jesus Pinedo, Claudio Puelles, and Enrique Barzola. Other than Barzola, none have had much success & I don’t think the Peruvian regional scene is very strong. He is a finisher & aggressive fighter, who doesn’t fight for points. He has finished all 10 of his wins and is 0-3-1 draw in decisions. Huachin looks like a wild man who just goes in there, plants his feet & goes to war. He will come forward with heavy combinations. He will throw hook & uppercut combos & he does have fast hands. He doesn’t have great defense in the pocket & can run in on straight lines. I have seen him countered hard, rocked and dropped. He doesn’t throw kicks & primarily is a boxer. He will mix it up at times & attack the body with punches.
Huachin doesn’t look to be a grappler and I haven’t seen much at all from his wrestling or Jiu-Jitsu game. I did see him get taken down one time, and stand up, but nothing much happened on the mat. He also is fairly good at circling away from the cage and denying clinch attempts. He will try to throw knees to the head in the clinch. I have seen him backed up against the cage, but his opponent wasn’t throwing much offense. I did see him get a single leg takedown & move to half guard on an opponent before the round ended. He does have two career submissions. He has never been finished. Huachin is very aggressive & has good cardio. He needs to go for broke & try to goad Barcelos into a war and take him out. He is out gunned technically & on the ground.
Carlos will be making his UFC debut here and he has a tough test for his first fight. He has some heavy hands and he throws them with bad intentions. If he wins this fight it is going to have to be via knockout. I just see Barcelos being better everywhere, including power. If this fight hits the mat, Barcelos is going to have a huge edge. He can finish this fight on the feet or on the ground and he is also going to have the crowd on his side as well. I favor him everywhere here and I don’t see Carlos being ready for a guy of his caliber quite yet. Barcelos is a solid parlay piece and I made him the 1st leg of my 3-leg parlay for the week.
Barcelos is the preferred play on DraftKings. He is -206 to win ITD and he is +110 to win in round 1. He is my favorite play on the board, the only issue is being able to afford him. If I can afford him, I will roster him. However, I won’t force him into lineups at his price. I will try to lock him in cash if I can, but I am not even sure if I will be able to do that. I like a lot of the top range this week, but he is my favorite. I will likely be overweight to Barcelos. If I was making 10 or less lineups I would just fade Huachin. I think he is live for a knockout, so I may use him once if I am making 20 lineups, but he is GPP only and will need the finish to win.
Winner – Raoni Barcelos via 1st round Submission
Warlley Alves $8,600 vs Sergio Moraes $7,600
Warlley Alves
Age: 28
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: XGym
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 6-3
Fight Matrix: 45
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -140
Warlley Alves had a terrible performance in his last fight. He was a huge favorite against a career 155er in James Krause & was knocked out. It wasn’t just a flash knockout, he was thoroughly dominated & really needs a bounce back performance here. Alves is a decent striker with a deadly guillotine. As a striker, he throws very little set ups, & everything is with 100% power. He has heavy leg kicks & nice body kicks with both legs. He has solid front kicks to the body. He will throw wide overhands. He will throw an uppercut, right hook, left hook combination. He does have power in his left hook. He will throw a left hook, overhand right combination. He has a big overhand right. He will throw high kicks & nice spinning back kicks to the body. He uses a lot of big, explosive attacks, and doesn’t pace himself well. He is extremely aggressive early, will walk opponents down and go for the finish. His defense isn’t great & he’s low volume after the first round. He was knocked out for the first time in his career in his last match. He doesn’t have huge power & only has two KO/TKO’s.
Alves likes to slow the fight down & hold opponents against the cage, while landing short shots to the body & head. He does throw heavy knees to the body & legs. He has a good single leg. He will use the single leg to try to take the back. In top position, he isn’t extremely aggressive. I highly doubt he will try to takedown Moraes. His takedown defense isn’t amazing, but his guillotine is nasty. He has five guillotines including three in the UFC. He got a guillotine on Colby Covington. He was taken down by James Krause in his last match, and he could be in trouble if Sergio takes him down. Alves has 6 submissions and has never been submitted. Warlley needs to be technical, use kicks & keep distance. He should try to throw front kicks to the body & leg kicks.
Sergio Moraes
Age: 36
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Evolucao Thai MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 8-3-1
Fight Matrix: 86
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +120
Sergio Moraes will be looking to bounce back after a decision loss to Rocco Martin. A loss for Moraes would probably close the door on him ever being top 15 again. Sergio Moraes is a wild striker, but he is athletic and has good power. He will wing wide, looping hooks with both hands, and if they land he can hurt opponents. He will throw a left hook, overhand right combination. He will wing counter left hooks. He will throw a straight-right hand, left hook combination. He will almost move his head completely off center line and wing a right hook. He will throw the hooks in combination & fighters have to respect the power. I do feel Moraes can get hurt himself as well though. He has nice round & front kicks to the body and will sneak a head kick in at the end of his combinations. He is fast and closes the distance quickly, but he doesn’t have a lot of variety in his striking. He will throw the occasional leg kick, but he doesn’t throw them very often. He has a good chin, but he has been knocked out twice. He only has one TKO himself.
Sergio Moraes is a multiple time Jiu-Jitsu world champion. We got to see him finally show some of it off against Ben Saunders. Moraes does not have great wrestling and will not go for takedowns much. In his last fight, he was much more diligent in looking for the wrestling. Instead of swinging wildly, he was calm early, moved, and then came in swinging to get a body lock and got the takedown. In round 2 he threw 0 strikes before catching a kick & bringing it to the mat again. He does a great job of keeping heavy top pressure in half guard. He will get a body lock position under half & puts himself in good position to pass to side control. He will methodically move to dominant positions and has great fundamental BJJ. He got a high mount against Ben Saunders & almost got an armbar in round 1. He has gotten a mounted triangle against Neil Magny. He got an arm triangle set up in the mount, moved to side control, cinched it up & submitted Ben Saunders. his match against Tim Means, he pulled guard when he was engaged in the clinch. When he is on his back, he will try to trap an arm and throw up a triangle, and he likes to get to deep half guard and sweep to top position. Opponents haven’t felt comfortable enough to stay in his guard and will stand up from the position and return to striking. He has questionable cardio, but a good game for winning decisions. He has had a knack of winning split decisions, and close fights over his UFC career, and has racked up an impressive record of 8-3-1. I see Sergio trying to get this fight to the ground. I think he could possibly land a big shot & hurt Warlley as well. His striking is awkward & he wings bombs.
I like Warlley in this fight but if it hits the ground then I think the advantage shifts into Moraes’ favor. I do see Warlley being able to dictate where this fight takes place and I think he is the rightful favorite for that reason. They are both fairly well-rounded fighters, I just think Warlley is more dangerous on the feet and Moraes more dangerous on the ground. Warlley is also 8 years younger and should have the speed and power edge. I do see this fight being fairly close, but I think Warlley will do enough to get his hand raised. He could also knock Moraes out, but as long as he can stay off his back then I think he does enough to get the job done.
I am not against targeting either side of this fight, but I don’t see it being one I am too invested in. I think there is a good chance that this fight plays out on the feet and if that is the case we will need a knockout for either to win us $30k. I will say Warlley is my preferred play, but he is $1k more than Moraes and I don’t love that. I might take one or two shots on both guys if I am making 20 lineups but if you are making 3-5 or less, I think a fade would be the best option. I think Moraes would be the better cash game play though because I am thinking this fight goes 3 rounds and the betting line is fairly close. I would rather just take the value on the dog here in cash games and hope I have a decent floor and a possible upset.
Winner – Warlley Alves via Unanimous Decision
Luana Carolina $8,900 vs Priscila Cachoeira $7,300
Luana Carolina
Age: 25
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 69”
Gym: Thai Unit
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 28 (135)
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -175
Luana Carolina is making her UFC debut in her home country. She is coming off a win on the DWCS. Carolina is still very young in her career & a bit raw. She is a Muay Thai striker with a mean streak. I really am not impressed with her striking at all. She is slow & stands very upright. She will throw her jab & one-two out there. She will throw some nice hooks in combination & will get aggressive with blitzes at times. She will come forward with straight punches, front knees, body & head kicks, but is very wild. She will throw occasional leg kicks & front kicks to the body. In between those blitzes, she is very low volume & doesn’t throw much at all. She stands very heavy on her lead leg & backs up in straight lines when she’s pressured. She leaves her chin right in the air & is very hittable backing up. Fighters are able to back her towards the cage fairly easily if they are aggressive. She does do a good job of keeping a high pace & will pick it up in round 3 if she senses opponents fading. She has decent power & two career TKO’s in 5 fights.
Carolina lets opponents get in on her legs against the cage way too easily. She stands very upright & takedowns are readily available. Opponents are able to control her against the cage. She does have some nice knees to the body & short elbows in the clinch. She does seem to have relatively heavy hips & will counter with a guillotine to defend takedowns. She will rarely go for takedowns, but when she can reverse to top position, she is very aggressive. She will posture up & throw straight punches in combination. She can overwhelm lesser opponents & win the fight this way, but her control on the mat isn’t great. When opponents can get on top of her, she seems a bit lost. She will just lay flat on her back. She doesn’t seem great in the Jiu-Jitsu realm & has one submission. She is undefeated & very confident. Carolina needs to go forward & go first in this match. She needs to work behind her kicks to keep Cachoeira on the outside, get her backing up & close the distance with straight punches. She should try to get the clinch & rough up Cachoeira from there. She can’t allow Cachoeira to control the pace of the fight & back her up. I think she has the better gas tank & she can maybe pour it on a tired Cachoeira & finish her at some point in the match.
Priscila Cachoeira
Age: 30
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 65”
Gym: Paraná Vale Tudo
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-2
Fight Matrix: 50
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +155
Priscila Cachoeira is 0-2 in the UFC and needs a win to keep her job. She was in an entertaining, sloppy war in her last match, where she lost a tight decision to Molly McCann. She will be getting to fight in Brazil and welcoming a UFC newcomer. She is taking this match on short notice replacing Yanan Wu. Cachoeira is a bar room brawler. She is extremely aggressive & will absorb a ton of punishment to give her own. Cachoeira is a fighter with a nice jab & decent one-two. She will throw hard, heavy hooks & uppercut combinations. When she gets opponents backed against the cage, she will pour on the pressure & throw long punching combinations. She will attack the body with straight-right hands. She will throw straight-right, left hooks. She throws a lot overhand rights. She will throw front kicks to the body & head. She will throw head kicks. She throws very hard and has no fear of being hit. She is very wild & has little to no defense. She holds her lands low & has gotten a bit better at moving her head, but still holds her chin very high. She is extremely tough & will plant her feet & go to war. She doesn’t back off when she gets hit and prefers to just throw until someone drops. She has 4 KO/TKO’s and is very durable never being finished with strikes.
Cachoeira is not a good grappler. She won’t go for takedowns much at all or try to get in the clinch. I don’t expect that to change here. She has very bad takedown defense & has very little takedown defense. On her back, she seems lost. She doesn’t control posture well & allows opponents to posture up & land brutal elbows. She will take big shots, not give up and has an unbreakable will. When Valentina Shevchenko was able to pass her guard into side control, she got the crucifix & landed big elbows. She eventually was able to sink in a rear naked choke. She was almost armbarred against Molly McCann in her last match. Carolina is a striker as well, so I don’t imagine that will be a huge issue this fight. She has no submissions and has one submission loss. Cachoeira has questionable cardio, but it looks like she catches second winds. Cachoeira only fights one way, going forward and throwing bombs. She needs to go forward, eat shots to give her own, walk down Carolina & try to land big shots. I actually think her pressure & combinations will give Carolina some issues.
This is a low-level fight and it is hard to want to put your money on either fighter. I think Carolina has more potential than Cachoeira, but she isn’t there yet and I don’t think she deserves this line either. I expect this to be a fight that plays out on the feet and it could turn into a fun, sloppy slugfest. I see Cachoeira landing the harder shots though and she should be the one doing more damage throughout the fight. I like the underdog to pick up an upset here and I think she gets it on the judge’s scorecards.
There is no way I am paying $8.9k for Carolina. She is the fade of the week and if it burns me then it burns me. I don’t see that being the case though even if she wins. My preferred play here is Cachoeira. I won’t be heavily invested in her, but she is in play in all formats. I won’t have a single Carolina lineup though and if I was making 150 lineups I still might even full fade. I expect this fight to stay standing and I don’t see 100+ point upside from either of them. I would rather just save the money and take the dog who has a chance to win this fight.
Winner – Priscila Cachoeira via Split Decision
Clay Guida $9,500 vs BJ Penn $6,700
Clay Guida
Age: 37
Height: 5’7
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 14-12
Fight Matrix: 43
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -620
Clay Guida comes into this spot as the biggest favorite on the card. The Carpenter is 37 years old but was riding a 2-fight win streak prior to his loss to Charles Oliveira in his last match. He was rocked on the feet, panic shot & was caught in a guillotine very fast in the fight. He has taken nearly a year off, but is the rightful favorite here against the 40-year-old BJ Penn. Everyone knows what Guida brings to the table at this point. A lot of movement on the feet, relentless wrestling, and a great gas tank. He is light on his feet & has good in & out movement. Since moving to Team Alpha Male he is much more about forward pressure. They have made his head movement less frenetic and more economical, and he’s doing a better job of blending his wrestling with his striking. He has a decent jab & will throw a jab, leg kick combination. He will throw a jab, left hook. He has a nice outside leg kick to overhand right combination. He will throw the overhand right as a lead also. His straight-right hand is nice & his hand speed isn’t bad. He will fake shots and come over the top with hooks. He does a good job of slipping shots and coming back with his own, but I think he’s susceptible to straight punches right down the pipe. He still is using a ton of movement and it makes him hard to hit, and hard to tell if he’s going to shoot a takedown or attack with strikes standing. He got a fast knockout of Joe Lauzon, but that says more about Lauzon than it does about Guida. He landed a right hook that rocked him, then dropped him with a right uppercut, left hook combination. Guida has never been known to have big power in his hands. It was his 2nd KO/TKO in 26 UFC fights. He has shown good durability over his career only being finished twice. He has been rocked, and then submitted a couple times as well, and I feel he isn’t as durable as he once was.
Guida is a relentless grinding wrestler. He was able to dominate Eric Koch by taking him down against the cage and getting control time and ground and pound damage from top position. He has good double leg & body lock takedowns. He is good getting opponents on the back foot, getting in on a double and getting the takedowns against the cage. He is good at circling to the back and dragging his opponent to the mat directly into side control. He will take the mount & has nice ground & pound. He doesn’t have extremely powerful ground & pound, but he throws a lot of volume, and can break opponents with his pressure & pace. He has good top control. He will look to take the back & go for rear naked chokes. He has decent arm triangles as well. He tends to leave his head inside on takedowns and gets guillotined. He will also panic wrestler when he’s hurt & that’s what lead to most of his submission losses. He has been submitted 9 times in his career. He has great cardio, he doesn’t get tired and that is one of his biggest advantages in his fights. Guida needs to push the pace, move in & out and use his superior speed & athleticism on the feet. He should look to land low kicks, along with his jab, left hook. I think he will also mix it up & go for takedowns. We saw Frankie Edgar dominate BJ Penn in top position, and I feel Guida can use that same game plan as well if he’s careful. Guida is going to have a big cardio advantage and I see him being much fresher in round 3. I could see Guida finishing a tired Penn in round 3.
BJ Penn
Age: 40
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Nova Uniao
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 12-12-2
Fight Matrix: 359
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 0-5
Current Streak: L6
Betting Odds: 460
BJ Penn is getting right back in the cage. He is coming back five months after his first career submission loss at the hands of Ryan Hall. Penn is 40 years old & hasn’t won a fight since 2011. He has lost 6 consecutive fights, and it’s kind of hard to watch. I will say Penn’s striking looked better than it had in a while vs Ryan Hall, and he was having success before getting submitted. He is training at Nova Uniao once again for this camp & fighting in Brazil, where I see him being the crowd favorite.
Penn is well known for being one of the fastest fighters to ever earn their black belt, hence the nickname The Prodigy. He doesn’t really possess any wrestling in terms of takedowns. He will try to use punches to get inside & grab the single collar clinch. He was able to briefly takedown Yair Rodriguez with a body lock takedown. In his most recent fight with Siver, when he dropped him, he swarmed with some big ground & pound punches, but was caught in an armbar attempt. He was able to pass to side control but didn’t do much of anything with the position. He showed good takedown defense on a single leg attempt against Siver, showing some signature Penn, jumping on one leg. In his second fight with Frankie Edgar he was taken down easily, and for a while showed some decent defense. He was able to use a butterfly guard to stop ground & pound but couldn’t get to his feet. He has been training with Leo Santos who is one of the best BJJ fighters in MMA, so I’m sure he is focusing on that part of his game for this fight. Penn hasn’t earned a submission since he fought Kenny Florian in 2009. He was submitted for the first time in his career in his last match. Ryan Hall got a heel hook on him, but Hall is one of the best leg lockers in the world, and I don’t think Guida can submit him. Penn needs to hold his ground & throw straight punches down the middle. I feel Penn will be much slower than Guida, but maybe more durable. His best chance to win is to get a finish in the first round. He was able to drop Denis Siver in round 2, but he gasses, & I think if Guida can get one takedown and can land some ground & pound Penn could be cooked. Penn could catch something off his back possibly or hurt him & submit him.
I don’t understand why BJ Penn is even fighting anymore. Especially after all the recent allegations about him that have come out. I just don’t see how he can be in the right mindset for this fight and we know his skills have clearly diminished. He hasn’t won a fight since 2010 and that was a 21 second knockout. If you take that fight out he would be 0-8-1 since 2009. Guida is no spring chicken himself but he clearly has more in the tank and he is going to have an advantage pretty much everywhere here. I used to be a huge BJ Penn fan and I actually hate picking against him here, but I don’t see how he wins. Guida should be able to win a clear decision if he doesn’t even get a knockout along the way. Unless BJ Penn can find a way to turn back time, I can’t pick him to win a fight in the UFC anymore. I like Guida here as a parlay piece and he will be in my free play of the week.
Guida is the preferred play here and it’s not really close. I think Guida likely dominates this fight and he can win with takedowns or a knockout. I think he has a solid ceiling and he is in play in all formats. I will likely have Guida or Barcelos in the majority of my lineups. I do think they are both 100+ point guys this weekend and I will try to be overweight to the field on both. I would prefer Barcelos though so that may take away from my Guida ownership. BJ Penn is a pretty easy fade. I may make one BJ lineup just in case he can pull off a submission and I used to be a huge fan, but I would be shocked if he won this fight. There are better punts on the board, so I would fade BJ here in all formats.
Winner – Clay Guida via 1st round (T)KO
Irene Aldana $9,200 vs Bethe Correia $7,000
Irene Aldana
Age: 31
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Lobo Gym MMA
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 11
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -310
Irene Aldana will be making her return after having a FOTN war with Lucie Pudilova. She will be taking a road game here, facing Bethe Correia in Brazil. This fight was scheduled to take place at UFC 227, but Bethe was not medically cleared due to eye issues. Aldana is a well-rounded fighter with a ton of heart. She has all the physical advantages here. She is taller, longer, has more power, as well as being younger & the better athlete. Aldana is a slick boxer who strikes at range and controls distance very well. She has great footwork & lateral movement. She has a nasty jab, and heavy leg kicks. She has a nice one-two, her straight-right hand is very fast and accurate. She will throw nice counter left hooks. She will throw a jab, straight, right uppercut combination. She will also throw an uppercut to straight-right hand combo. She is very fluid with her combinations, has good power and hand speed. She has good head movement and she is pretty tough to hit. She can get hit and get mad and want to go to war but will need to avoid getting emotional in this fight. She isn’t much of a kicker, but she has good leg kicks, and will occasionally land a body kick. She was throwing more front kicks to the body in her last match, and she should throw those here. She is good at staying in the pocket & countering with combinations, while Correia doesn’t throw a lot of combos to the head. Aldana hits hard & will close the show with her striking. She has 5 career KO/TKO’s. She has been TKO’d twice.
Aldana is very physically strong, and good in the clinch with knees and elbows. I think she is the physically stronger of the two, and her clinch is more damaging than Correia’s. She won’t go for takedowns very often. She has great takedown defense and does a great job of digging double underhooks and reversing the takedown to take top position. She has strong elbows on top and will attack with submissions as well. She likes to take the back & has solid rear naked chokes. She is good in the scrambles and usually lands on top. I feel she is a better scrambler than Correia. She has amazing cardio and has the same pace in round 1 as she does in round 3. She is a finisher and has finished 7 of her 8 wins. She has two submissions, both rear naked chokes. Aldana proved she is willing to go through hell to get a win and can stay technical in a war. Aldana needs to keep her jab out there in this fight. She should try to stay long with her punches & throw combinations. I think she can hurt Correia with the second & third shots in a combo if she lands them. I think her lateral movement & footwork can give Correia issues. She can’t allow Correia to back her towards the cage or work her in the clinch. I think Aldana has the better cardio & with the pace she pushes, she could tire Correia by round 3.
Bethe Correia
Age: 35
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: 64”
Gym: Pitbull Brothers
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 4-3-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 11 Months
Last Five: 1-3-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +255
Bethe Correia hasn’t fought in nearly 2 years. She got knocked out in the main event against Holly Holm and having 1 win in her last 5 fights she needs a win badly here. Correia is a striker. She isn’t the greatest athlete and is fairly flat footed in her stance. She has a decent jab to the body & head. She likes to throw one-twos and has a nice left hook. She will throw right hooks & overhand rights but doesn’t set them up well. She actually has a pretty nice uppercut she will throw after a hook combination, and it’s probably her most powerful punch. She likes to attack the body with hooks & straight punches. She isn’t a kicker but will throw leg kicks & the occasional body kick. She can throw those kicks without setting them up at times and be countered. She really struggles with movement and needs opponents to sit & trade in the pocket with her to be successful. She will try to throw things such as spinning back fists & Superman punches to try to close distance. She doesn’t have good foot & hand speed, and she really struggles like I said with movement & kicks. She was knocked out with a head kick in her last match. She is tough & will sit & trade, but she has been knocked out twice. She doesn’t have good power & only has two career TKO’s.
Correia isn’t a terrible grappler. She is physically strong for the division & likes to duck under into double underhooks when opponents get aggressive on her. She will control them against the cage, but she doesn’t have a lot of offense from there. She will time body locks and was able to take Marion Reneau down with one. She will also catch kicks & look for takedowns that way. On top, Correia has very heavy top pressure & will throw short hammerfists & punches but isn’t overly dangerous. She has no submissions and is not a threat with them. She has solid submission defense and will try to pass the legs to side control when opponents throw up triangles or armbars. She did shoot a single leg from way too far out against Reneau, and Reneau was able to take top position, mount & take the back. She took some big shots. She did show heart and was able to roll onto all fours and attempt a single a couple times but was exhausted & didn’t have the drive to finish. I expect Correia to try to wrestle in this match & control Aldana in the clinch. I think she is really going to struggle with distance if Aldana comes in with a game plan of kicking &, moving. She has been out for 1 Year 11 months, has had eye issues & at 35 years old she may come back looking old. For Correia to win, she needs to close the distance, get in the clinch, push Aldana to the cage & grind. She should try to break with combinations to the body & head & try to wear on Aldana and just make it a nasty, grimy fight.
I like Aldana a good bit here and even in Brazil I would be pretty surprised if she loses this fight. I do think it likely goes to decision so there is that chance of a home cooking decision, but Aldana should clearly win this fight in my opinion. She is going to have a 4-inch height and reach advantage here and she should be using that to her advantage. She is going to be the fighter pushing the pace here and I think she is better everywhere in this matchup. I see her picking Correia apart for 3 rounds and winning an easy 30-27 decision. I think you can bet her straight at this line if you want but I am going to just throw her into a parlay to get a better overall line.
On DraftKings, Aldana is my preferred play. I don’t know how high her ceiling is, but I love her floor here and I think she is a great cash game play. I see her getting around 10x here in a dominant striking decision, but that probably won’t do it in GPPs competing with the others in this top range. I will probably cut down my ownership on her in GPPs, but she will make my pool. Correia is an easy fade for me in all formats though and I won’t have a single lineup with her. Even if I made 150. I don’t see how she gets a win here other than some home cooking and if that is the case then it likely wouldn’t put her on the winning lineup. She doesn’t have a ceiling in this match so there is no point in rostering her in GPPs. If you want to play her as a cash punt I think that is fine if you want to accept the loss and hope she can put up 25 DK points in three rounds of striking. That won’t be the route I take though and if either of these ladies are in my cash lineup it will be Aldana.
Winner – Irene Aldana via Unanimous Decision
Thiago Moises $8,500 vs Kurt Holobaugh $7,700
Thiago Moises
Age: 24
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0–1
Fight Matrix: 123
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -130
Thiago Moises had a lot of hype surrounding his UFC debut, but fell flat. He had a chance to get a great win on his resume, fighting Beneil Dariush, but was thoroughly out grappled in a decision loss. He will be getting a chance to avenge that loss in his home country against Kurt Holobaugh. When Moises is allowed to go first he’s a beast. Moises has a good jab, and a very nice straight-right hand. He also has a nice right hook, and he is powerful. He is a slow starter, but he picks up as the fight goes on. He has nasty kicks, big leg, body and round kicks. He is athletic and will throw spinning heel kicks to the body and head, as well as jumping round house kicks. He is quick with the techniques and stays defensively sound while and after throwing them. He will throw nice question mark kicks to the head, and he had a pretty nasty head kick in his last win to set up the finish. He doesn’t know how to strike moving backwards. He has to have his feet planted to strike & when opponents pressure him, the only time he throws shots are when his back is against the cage & he’s flat footed. Fighters are able to go first & land combinations along the cage on him. He will try to sit down & land hard counter hooks or straights to back his opponents up & then can go forward with combinations of his own. He will just circle the octagon at times & be very passive, which is kind of odd. He definitely has big power, and he can drop fighters with his right hook. He only has 3 KO/TKO’s, but he has dropped and submitted fighters as well. He has a good chin and never been finished.
Thiago Moises is a submission specialist, and a black belt in BJJ. He is a strong fighter, and he is good in the clinch with knees and elbows. He has good body lock takedowns, and he will shoot doubles against the cage. He isn’t a super active seeker of the takedown and seems to prefer to strike. When he does get on top, he is aggressive and prefers position over submission. In his last match, he was largely controlled on the ground. He did jump for a guillotine that looked pretty tight and attacked with an armbar also. Usually when I see a fighter jump guillotine I will never bet them, and Moises did it & ended up on his back for it in the first & third round. After the first round he was largely dominated, didn’t attack off his back, nor could he stand up. He was giving his back to try to stand up & was threatened with rear naked chokes. He has 4 submissions and is definitely a finisher with 8 finishes in 11 wins. He is only 3-2 in decisions. He has good cardio, and usually gets stronger as the fight goes on. Moises has to stand his ground more in this fight. He can’t back up & be passive. He has to be ready to stay on his toes, throw kicks & try to counter with his fast hands. When Holobaugh gets in close, he needs to stick him with the jab, one-two, and be willing to sit down & throw with power to back Holobaugh out of the pocket.
Kurt Holobaugh
Age: 32
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Gracie Barra Louisiana
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 0-3
Fight Matrix: 185
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +110
Kurt Holobaugh will be making the move up to 155 lbs after going 0-3 at 145 in the UFC so far. He was a two-division champion at Titan FC, so he isn’t unfamiliar to fighting at 155, and hoping this will jumpstart his career. He landed some big shots that dropped Shane Burgos, but when he followed up on the mat, he was quickly submitted with an armbar. Holobaugh is an explosive, boxer wrestler with knockout power. He has improved his striking and has very good footwork. He does a good job of stalking his opponents to the cage and then he will unload with combinations. He has a nice jab, and he is explosive with his hook combinations. He will use a jab, check left hook, and he also has a very nice one-two. He will throw inside leg kicks as a range finder, and to set up combinations. He likes to jab to the body, and then come over the top with an overhand right. He will dig with powerful hooks to the body, and he does a great job of wearing his opponents down as the fight continues. He has a nice uppercut, and he likes to finish his combinations with body kicks. He can get wide with his punches, and fighters are able to counter him. He has a great chin, but he was finished pretty brutally by Barcelos. He has great cardio and keeps heavy volume out there. Holobaugh has 5 career KO/TKO’s. He has a strong chin & has only been finished once by strikes in a back & forth war. I do feel he has to be careful leaving his chin out there when he’s throwing combinations with Moises against the cage. Moises is a big athletic 155er & he can’t take too many of those clean.
Holobaugh is a wall and very strong fighter. He has strong singles, doubles and good ground & pound. He isn’t an active seeker of the takedown, but he will shoot for them if he is losing the striking. He is strong in the clinch, he likes to get in the single collar and land short uppercuts. He likes to get in the clinch, circle to the back and does a good job of taking the back. He has improved his takedown defense, but he can be taken down by well-timed shots. In most of his losses he has lost to wrestlers. He is solid off his back. He will attack with armbars mostly to create scrambles to get up. He has good guillotine defense, which he needs to have sharp here, and I think he will be a hard fighter to guillotine. In his last match, he dropped Shane Burgos, and went into his guard carelessly & was armbarred. You know he wants to right that wrong, and fight composed with more of a game plan here. Holobaugh should also maybe look for takedowns & to take the back here. He has solid rear naked chokes & 9 submission finishes. He has been submitted one time. Holobaugh needs to use a high guard, his jab & one-two to get inside & push Moises back. If he can get Moises backed up towards the cage I see him being able to keep him there with his footwork, and land combinations against the cage. He needs to be careful not to get clipped with a big counter or caught with a silly kick. If he can be the one going forward using his footwork to keep Moises backed up, I see him winning the fight clearly.
I expect this to be a fun fight and one of the better ones on the card. I expect it to mainly take place on the feet and either of these guys could get a KO and it could turn into a brawl as well. I think Moises is the more well-rounded fighter and with this fight taking place in Brazil, I would favor him in a decision as well. So, I think the line is right, but Holobaugh is a live dog here. I think the best path to victory for Holobaugh is a knockout, so if he can turn this fight into a brawl then that would be in his advantage and maybe help him if it hits the scorecards. I am going to lean with Moises to get the job done here but not with much confidence.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Holobaugh. He has big power and he is the more likely one to win by knockout. I think if Moises wins, it’s likely by decision or submission. I don’t see him having 100+ point upside but I can see Holobaugh getting to the 100-point mark with a win. This is one of the fights I will look to get exposure on both sides, but I will have more Holobaugh. I think he is in play in all formats and the only thing keeping me from going overweight is that I think he loses the fight. If Moises wins with a ~75-point decision that won’t do us any good, but if Holobaugh does that then we are still alive for that top prize. If I was making 10 lineups I would probably go 3 Holobaugh and 1 Moises.
Winner – Thiago Moises via Split Decision
Ryan Spann $8,800 vs Rogerio Nogueira $7,400
Ryan Spann
Age: 27
Height: 6’5
Weight: 205
Reach: 81.5”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 45
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -140
Ryan Spann will be entering the lion’s den in his second UFC fight. He had a solid decision victory over Brazilian Luis Henrique, but now will be fighting a legendary Brazilian in Brazil. Even if Minotouro is 42 years old, he’s still an intimidating presence and bad dude, proving that by knocking out Sam Alvey in his last fight. Spann has to have the best performance of his career to get it done here. Ryan Spann is a big, long LHW, and a pretty well-rounded fighter. He has good hands, is long and rangy. He has a very nice snappy jab, and a powerful straight-right hand. He is fast, and accurate with his one-two. He starts very fast and goes on the offensive from the start. He has a nice check hook. He has decent leg kicks and can throw some nice body kicks. He has good movement for a fighter his size, but he tends to not use it all the time. He is flat footed and can show some bad tall man defense in his fights, like leaning back to try to avoid shots. He doesn’t throw much of anything besides jabs, one-twos & one, one-twos, and can be very obvious. He can get tagged with well-timed overhands. He has a questionable chin and has gotten rocked many times in his fights. He has gotten knocked out twice.
Spann is a decent grappler. He has a wrestling and submission game. He has good single legs, and really nice double leg slams. He will jump on guillotines, and he does a good job of using them to roll into mount or snap opponents down. He was able to get a front choke finish in less than 40 seconds on the DWCS. His takedown defense is questionable. He can get very obvious with his striking & just throw one-twos over & over. He can overextend on that combo & get double legged. He is decent at defending takedowns in the clinch & using his height to reverse position. Off his back, his guard isn’t bad & he has solid sweeps. I do feel he will be in trouble if Nog gets top position. He can get very desperate for takedowns and go in very sloppy with his entries when he gets rocked or tired. He leaves his head exposed to be hit with elbows and punches when he goes for single or double legs. He got knocked out by Karl Robertson and hurt really badly by Alex Nicholson in the same position. He has solid ground & pound, and fairly decent top control. He does a good job of taking the back quickly, where he will lock in the body lock, and is good at sinking in rear naked chokes. He has ten submissions. He has finished 13 of his 14 wins and doesn’t go to the scorecards much. He is 1-2 in decisions & tends to tire in round 3. Spann is going to have to use his reach & speed advantage, to fight at range. He needs to use his one-two & leg kicks to keep Minotouro at bay. He should try to start fast & take Minotouro out in round one where he will have a big speed advantage most likely. He should avoid grappling with Nogueira in this match. He also has to win definitively to get the nod if it goes to decision in Brazil.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Age: 42
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Team Nogueira
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 6-5
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +120
Minotouro Nogueira is looking to get another UFC win streak going. He returned from nearly two years off, as a huge underdog & came through with a big knockout win. This is one of his fastest turn around in years, having fought 8 months ago. He fought twice in 2016, that is the only time he’s fought more than once in a calendar year in the last 8. Nogueira only fought once in 2011,2013,2014,2015 and didn’t fight at all in 2012 or 2017. Nogueira is still a good southpaw boxer and looked very good vs Patrick Cummings & Sam Alvey. He has a very nice jab, and a good left hook. He likes to follow up his jab with a left hook, and it has KO power. He does a good job of slipping off center line after throwing his left hand. He does a good job of putting long combinations together in the pocket, with left and right hooks. He doesn’t throw many kicks, and it makes him able to be out volumed from the outside. He still has a good chin and has only been finished with strikes 3 times. His last finish loss against Ryan Bader, was due to being stuck in a position on the ground and taking shots not about taking a concussive blow. He still has solid hand speed and is a dangerous striker. When he has an opponent hurt he will usually finish the fight brutally. He has 8 KO/TKO’s.
Nogueira is not a grappler in the octagon, having only 1 career UFC takedown. He has pretty good takedown defense and does a good job in the clinch. He has nasty knees to the body, dropping and finishing Tito Ortiz with one. He has good hooks to the head and the body inside, and he is very good overall in the clinch. He is a third-degree black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and did a good job of surviving on the floor for 3.5 rounds with Bader, but he hasn’t shown much of it offensively. I feel in this fight he should maybe try to mix it up, but I doubt he will. Nogueira has 5 career submissions, but none since 2009. He will be ready to go, and really wants a win here in his home country. He doesn’t need to fight, him and his brother are legends in Brazil, but he just loves it and wants to show he still has the hunger to compete and dig deep if need be, in my opinion. I think Nogueira is more technical with his boxing. He needs to use his jab to find his range & then let his shots go. I feel his straight-left hook, right hook combination could really hurt Spann potentially. I also feel the longer the fight goes, Spann will get slower & more tired and it will be better for Nogueira. He needs to be careful early not to get caught by the bigger, faster fighter & mind his Ps & Qs in round one.
I have to favor Spann here. He is going to be the bigger guy and will hold a 6-inch reach advantage. Most of his wins are by submission but I see this fight playing out on the feet. He is 15 years younger than Little Nog and he is going to have a big speed advantage. I am not a big believer in his overall talent and if this was a younger Little Nog then I would be on him for sure. I just think Spann is likely going to knock him out here and I think there may be some value in his line still. This fight is in Brazil so if Spann takes it easy and goes to the judges then he could lose this fight even if it looks like he clearly won.
On DraftKings, this is a fight I like to target. My preferred play is Spann but Little Nog is in play as well. The line for FDGTD is -280 and I think Spann can win via KO or sub, it could be 1st round as well. I think he can compete with the $9k fighters and he could be a guy that kicks them off the 1st place lineup. Little Nog is the better boxer though and Spann doesn’t have a great chin himself, so I could see Nog winning via KO. I don’t think that is likely, so I won’t be heavy on him, but he will make my player pool. Spann is a guy I think is in play in all formats and I will try to be overweight on him. It is more of a fade on Little Nog at this point, but I don’t see this fight going all 3-rounds and I like Spann to get the win.
Winner – Ryan Spann via 1st round (T)KO
Diego Ferreira $9,000 vs Francisco Trinaldo $7,200
Carlos Diego Ferreira
Age: 34
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 74”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 6-2
Fight Matrix: 17
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -165
Carlos Diego Ferreira has won 4 consecutive fights & is in the best form of his UFC career. He is coming off a dominant win over Rustam Khabilov in Europe. Diego has a very nice jab to the body & head, and nice leg kicks. His straight-right hand is nasty & powerful. He has a nice short left hook. He will double jab his way into the straight-right hand. He has nice front & round kicks to the body. He will throw head kicks. He has a good left hook, and dangerous uppercuts in the pocket. He lets his hands go in close range and is very aggressive. He will throw a left hook, right hook, right uppercut combination in close range. He has dangerous spins in close range and will land hard spinning back fists. He will get wild when he gets clipped, and instead of being defensive, swing wildly. He is very tough & always wants to get it back when opponents hit him. He has power, but only has 3 KO/TKO’s in his career. He has a good chin but has been finished once by KO.
Diego Ferreira is a dynamic grappler. He has incredible Jiu-Jitsu on top and off his back. He has great takedown defense. He does a good job of getting double underhooks, circling to the back and getting on top. He isn’t an active seeker of the takedown himself with just one in his career, but his scrambling and sweeping ability off his back is extremely impressive. He starts working off his back immediately and will try to go for triangles or omaplatas and use them to sweep and get on top. Ferreira had some nasty scrambles in his last match. He was able to defend a takedown & move directly into the crucifix position & then took the back. He almost had the armbar & then had the rear naked choke fully locked in, but Khabilov was saved by the bell. His Jiu-Jitsu is dynamic, and he can submit anyone in the division. Diego has 6 career submissions. Ferreira has to go forward & be aggressive. He needs to try to use his straight punches to counter Trinaldo’s looping shots, and land first. I think if he can win the striking & force Trinaldo to wrestle he could get a submission. He has to be aware of the power of Trinaldo & respect it.
Francisco Trinaldo
Age: 40
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Constrictor Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 13-5
Fight Matrix: 25
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +145
Francisco Trinaldo is still a beast at 40 years old. He had a devastating knee to the body finish that sent Evan Dunham into retirement in his last fight. He has racked up an impressive resume & has been one of the better fighters in the division for years. Trinaldo is a nasty striker. He has a very nice jab. He has very good in and out movement and is very fast. He only moves forward and backwards mainly and doesn’t use much lateral movement. He likes to move into boxing range and pump his jab, waiting for a shot from his opponent so he can counter with a straight-left or check right hook. He has a great and very powerful overhand left that he has great timing on. He throws very nice hooks & straight punches to the body. He likes to throw a right hook to the body to a left hook the head combination. He has nice front knees to the body. He is a vet and can fight many different ways and in all phases. He is good at striking moving backwards as a counter striker drawing you in such as in the Ross Pearson fight. He is also good at being the hunter and attacking moving forward such as vs Evan Dunham. I feel he is fading a little bit. I don’t think he lets go as much or is as fast as he used to be. He struggles more with closing the distance, but he still goes for it and if he lands he can put people’s lights out. He has a very good chin and has never been finished by strikes. Trinaldo has 8 KO/TKOs.
Francisco is a good grappler, and very strong in the clinch. He has nasty knees, and very strong elbows. He can cut his opponents with elbows against the cage. He has pretty good double leg takedowns, and nice body locks, but I doubt he will go for many takedowns in this fight. He has strong ground & pound and decent top control. He has pretty good takedown defense, but that is probably his main weakness. Against Kevin Lee he showed a fantastic sprawl and was extremely strong in the clinch denying body locks. He does a good job of sprawling and circling around to the back. He has good leg locks and uses them to sweep to top position. If he is on his back he has good butterfly hooks, and does a good job of controlling posture, but doesn’t have a great get-up game. If he gets taken down by Diego Ferreira he has to be very careful to not get submitted. Trinaldo has 5 submissions & has been submitted 3 times himself. Trinaldo needs to try to counter in this fight & attack the body. I think he could have success with counter hooks & overhands potentially, and if he goes to the body it could open up the head. He had a nasty knee to the liver finish in his last match, & we saw Diego Ferreira get hurt with a knee to the body vs Kyle Nelson. Trinaldo will continue to go forward even if he gets hurt & will fight for your money.
Diego has looked like he is in his prime and Trinaldo is now on the wrong side of 40. I think the line is about right on this one. I think Diego is the more technical fighter everywhere and is really only outmatched in the power edge. Trinaldo’s way to win this fight is going to bully Diego and not give him the space to work with. If he wants to stand and box, then he will likely get out landed and will probably need the KO to get the win. On the ground, he could work top control and ground and pound to win there, but Diego is dangerous there as well and could get a submission or sweep and lock up a submission. I do think the line is right on this one and I will favor Diego Ferreira to get his hand raised by a judge’s decision by winning at least two rounds of a fight that mainly takes place on the feet.
This is another fight I will look to target both sides of. I do like Diego to get the win but Trinaldo probably has the easier path to the winning lineup with a win. If he wins, I think it would be by a knockout or maybe even takedowns and GNP. I think it would be tough for him to win a decision here, so I see a win with him scoring well. I just think Diego gets the win and if he doesn’t get takedowns himself then I don’t see him scoring highly because I don’t think he gets a KO on the feet. I could see him being another fighter who scores under 10x in a win and that won’t help a lot. I think he does have a ceiling with his ground game and finish ability, so he will be in my player pool, but I might have more exposure to Trinaldo. I like Trinaldo as a cash punt option as well because I think he has a solid floor and he also has the chance at the win. This will probably be a fight I have in 40-50% of my lineups but if you are making 5 or less lineups then I would just take a stand and only use the one side you like more.
Winner – Diego Ferreira via Unanimous Decision
Thiago Alves $8,200 vs Laureano Staropoli $8,000
Thiago Alves
Age: 35
Height: 5’9
Weight: 170
Reach: 70”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 15-10
Fight Matrix: 50
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -110
Thiago Alves bounced back from back to back losses with a decision win in his last match. It was a very questionable decision in Brazil, which a majority of people thought he lost. He is fighting again in Brazil, so you have to imagine if the fight is close, Alves is going to get the benefit of the doubt. Thiago Alves is a UFC legend, this will be his 25th fight with the company, he has seen it all. He earned his first victory in Brazil in his UFC career, in his last match. He is a striker who has made his career off hard leg kicks & big power in his hands. He has a nice jab & strong inside & outside leg kicks. He will throw an outside leg kick to a jab, or a double jab to a leg kick. When he finds his range & gets comfortable in the pocket, he will really start to let his hands go. He does a good job of just touching opponents with the jab, waiting for the counter & throwing a fade-away left hook. He is very accurate with it & good at slipping the return shot & landing it. He has a nice left hook, straight-right hand combination. He will throw nice body kicks. He will throw occasional head kicks. He has good lateral movement & head movement at range, and when he is countering he has good defense. He will get wild & try to change the tide of the fight when he’s getting finessed from the outside, and wain in with straight punch combinations. He still has the heart to fight & win, but that’s where he becomes hittable. He is powerful & has 12 KO/TKO’s, but only has one in the last 11 years. He has shown a strong chin over his career & only has been finished by strikes 3 times.
Alves is a good clinch fighter, but not much of a wrestler. He has good control & head positioning when he has opponents against the cage. He does a great job of landing elbows to the head & knees to the body. He has good body lock takedowns. On top, he isn’t super dangerous, but if he can posture up he has powerful ground & pound. He isn’t active with takedown attempts, but he has landed almost 70% of the takedowns he’s tried in his UFC career. He has good takedown defense, he has heavy hips and a good sprawl. He was taken down multiple times in his last match vs Max Griffin. He isn’t a big submission threat with only 2 in his career. He has been submitted 4 times in his career. Alves should come in composed here, work behind his jab & throw heavy leg kicks early & often. I feel he could potentially hurt the leg of Staropoli & slow the movement. If he can get Staropoli more stationary, I feel he has better combinations & will land cleaner. I also feel in the clinch, he will have a big advantage & could push for takedowns here. I think he could land big shots in the clinch & get body locks. He is hittable when he gets tired & struggles with reach. He has to be able to get inside & not stuck at the end of Staropoli’s straight punches. Staropoli also has a good gas tank so he has to come into this match in shape.
Laureano Staropoli
Age: 26
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Invictus MMA
From: Argentina
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 457
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -110
Laureano Staropoli has won 6 in a row & looked pretty impressive in his UFC debut. He won a fight of the night decision against Hector Aldana. He is a tall fighter & will have a 3” reach advantage in this match. Laureano is extremely aggressive. He will switch stances & is light in & out. He has a nice jab & very nice one-two. He will throw a jab, left hook, or a left hook, straight-right hand combination. He will wain forward with heavy hooks in combination. He will throw a one-two to a leg kick combination. He will go body, head with hook combinations & mix in uppercuts. He will throw spinning back fists & flying knees. He will throw spinning back fists into round kicks to the body or head. He is athletic & always tries to counter back when someone throws on him. He was hurt with leg kicks in his last match, and Alves is one of the better leg kickers in the division. He is hittable, and seems to have a good chin, but his style will eventually get him knocked out if not tightened up. He has already been knocked out one time. He has good power and has finished 5 fights by KO/TKO.
Staropoli seems to have poor clinch technique, and takedown defense. He was taken down in the clinch in a fight I saw multiple times. He allowed his opponent to get inside and clinch up on him way too easily. He was able to get his back to the cage and get back up to his feet, but that was against a 1-2 fighter. There was no grappling in his UFC debut, and he is facing another striker in Alves, so he may be safe. He does have two submissions, and if he hurts his opponent, he will get on top and go for the finish. He has nasty ground & pound when he has a fighter hurt can knock fighters’ unconscious. I could see Alves trying to put Staropoli on his back maybe, and I’m not sure Staropoli could stop it. Staropoli needs to be aggressive, walk down Alves & return with multiple, straight punches when Alves throws. He has great cardio & has the ability to push the pace for 3 rounds. If he can get him to the cage & be able to stay in & out while attacking body, head he could finish Alves.
Staropoli was in a war for his UFC debut and I was much more impressed with that performance than I was with his fights on the regional scene. If it wasn’t for that fight, I would for sure be on Alves here. Alves, even at this point in his career, is still the better and more technical striker. This is a fight I expect to play out on the feet, so I think Staropoli is going to need to bring that same pace he used in his debut to this fight. I don’t think Alves can hang at that pace for a full 15-minutes and I think Staropoli could break him if he can make this a dirty fight. I think he is the more likely fighter to get a knockout as well. If he wants to keep this fight at range, then he is probably going to get picked about with leg kicks and a better overall striking game from Alves. This fight is in Brazil too and the crowd will be on Alves’ side. I totally see why the line is what it is for those reasons, but I am going to take Staropoli to get a win by being the busier fighter and winning this fight with volume.
On DraftKings, Staropoli is my preferred play. We are getting him for $200 cheaper than Alves and I see him fighting at the higher pace and he has the better ITD line as well. Staropoli ITD is +275 and Alves ITD is +505. That makes this a “dog or pass” fight for me on DraftKings. I don’t see Alves making my player pool at all and I will be taking shots at Staropoli. I think he is playable in all formats and I can see me being overweight to the field on him in GPPs. If this is a close, split decision type fight, then I don’t see either guy having a shot at the optimal lineup because this should be a fight that takes place on the feet and I don’t see it being a crazy pace that scores well on DK.
Winner – Laureano Staropoli via Unanimous Decision
Jose Aldo $8,400 vs Alex Volkanovski $7,800
Jose Aldo
Age: 32
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Upper Sportsite Club
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 10-3
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -130
Jose Aldo is one of the best strikers of all time. Aldo is extremely economical & accurate with his shots, and fights like a sniper. He has a tremendous jab, and lateral footwork, making it extremely hard for opponents to get inside. He does a great job of faking the jab to create an opening for his straight-right hand & does an excellent job of jabbing, stepping back, allowing his opponent to go first & counter with hard shots. He has nasty counter right straights & hooks. He likes to throw left hooks & straight-left hands into hard leg & body kicks. He does a great job of faking & feinting the same combinations he lands, really making his opponent always have to be reacting to him instead of creating their own offense. Aldo has some of the best leg kicks in MMA history, but really hasn’t thrown them much in recent fights. This is a strike he needs to get back to in this matchup and try to batter the lead leg of Volkanovski. Aldo has amazing head movement & will slip and return in the pocket with hard hooks to the body. He has nasty step-in knees to the body when opponents try to get inside & will also throw flying knees which are devastating. He has finished multiple fights via flying knee KO. He will throw nice spinning body kicks and has good head kicks. Aldo is still extremely explosive & powerful and definitely the fighter with more one shot knockout power. He has always been one of the fastest fighters in the UFC, and it will be interesting to see who is faster in this matchup on the night. Aldo has 17 KO/TKO’s in his illustrious career, but his ability to take a shot has weakened, and he has been finished by strikes 3 times, all in his last 6 fights.
Aldo is in my opinion the best anti grappler in MMA history. The ability he has to deny takedown attempts & make fighters pay for shooting is absolutely uncanny. He throws the front knees up the middle & flying knees to stop takedown attempts, along with very accurate uppercuts. Aldo is nasty in the clinch. He has great knees to the body & was able to get a highlight reel flying knee KO of Chad Mendes directly off the break. He does a great job of limp legging out of single legs & sprawling on doubles. He has a great whizzer to deny single legs and will land hard hammerfists to the head. He rarely shoots takedowns, but he does have good reactive double legs, and decent clinch takedowns. He is a black belt but is not a dangerous submission threat in top position, he normally only wrestles when he is tired. He has had cardio issues in fights, specifically five round fights, but he did gas quickly against Holloway. Holloway pushes a pace, that few in MMA history have been able to do and is not the same fighter as Volkanovski in terms of reach & length. Aldo is going to do what he does. He is going to use his tremendous lateral footwork & angling, pot shot from the outside & explode in when he sees opportunities. He also will stand flat footed in front of opponents but is coiled like a spring & ready to counter. He still is blazing fast with big hand speed & flying knees still. He needs to keep his jab pumping, and his leg kicks. I think Aldo should try to throw jab, overhand rights or jab, straight-right hands, and catch Volkanovski with the second punch in a combination. If he can start to beat Volkanovski at an outside game, Volkanovski may get sloppy or panic for takedowns and that’s where Aldo’s knees come into play. I don’t see Volk being able to take Aldo down or even get in on his legs against the cage. Aldo has probably the best anti grappling in MMA history. Aldo has also been ripping the body much better lately & he should attack the body to slow down the forward pressure of Volkanovski. He needs to be smart in this match though, and if he can win a decision where he coasts just do it. Alex is dangerous & no reason to try to finish such a durable guy or attack him sloppily. When you see Aldo fight smaller wrestle boxers like Frankie Edgar or Chad Mendes, he has put on some master classes. His second fight with Edgar was a master class & the way he should fight in this match.
Alexander Volkanovski
Age: 30
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Freestyle Fighting Gym
From: Australia
UFC Record: 6-0
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W16
Betting Odds: +110
Volkanovski is a well-rounded fighter with a heavy grappling background as well. Volkanovski is a solid striker, but not very dynamic. He has a nice jab, and good leg kicks. He will jab to the body. He likes to throw a counter overhand right as fighters close the distance. He will also use the overhand right as a lead to close the distance and get in the clinch. He was able to rock Elkins multiple times with his overhand right and drop him. He does a good job or sticking in the pocket and sliding in & out and returning with left hooks and overhand rights. He likes to throw body & head kicks with his lead leg. He keeps heavy pressure on opponents always owning the cage & pushing opponents backwards. He does a good job of faking level changes to try to create openings for his strikes. He will close the distance with a straight-left, right hook, right uppercut combination. He doesn’t throw a lot in combination most of the fight and will mostly use one or two shot attacks. He likes to slide away from shots and return, and against an athletic freak who can close the distance like Aldo that may not work. He is powerful, but he doesn’t possess the one-shot power of Aldo He has 11 KO/TKO’s in 19 wins. He was TKO’d in his lone loss.
Volkanovski is a strong wrestler, and that’s what he has used to earn the majority of his victories. He does a great job of using his striking to get inside, and he will duck under into the body lock clinch. He is very strong and can just bull fighters over when he gets his hands clasped around the back. He will shoot reactive double legs and does a good job of using it to push opponents against the cage if he can’t get the takedowns. He will dig double underhooks and does a great job of controlling opponents against the cage to bank control time. He is very strong in those positions and can lift and slam opponents when he gets his hands connected with his opponents against the cage. He is strong in the clinch with short punches & control. He will use a spinning elbow to disengage, and it’s an effective technique. On top, he is very good, he does a great job of moving to half guard where he will posture up and land heavy G&P. He has great control and will put a lot of damage on opponents from top position. I feel he will have little to no chance of taking down Aldo. Volkanovski is a fighter you will have to put to sleep to get him out of there. Volkanovski’s biggest advantage in this match is his cardio. He has great cardio and can push a hard pace for all three rounds. If Volkanovski can weather a storm early, and take Aldo into the later rounds, he will have a better chance getting his game going. I feel Volkanovski should pressure Aldo and go first. He should try to use his jab or a shot to draw out counters of Aldo & be ready to slip & return. He should pressure him to draw out his shots and catch him closing the distance or in the pocket. I feel after round 1 he should start to try to control him against the cage and force him to defend wrestling shots more. Even if he isn’t close to getting the takedowns, he maybe could create striking opportunities off the break. If Volkanovski can get him tired going into round 3, he can put it on him in the last round and try to take him out.
This is my favorite fight of the night. Two top guys in the division and Aldo being a former champion and one of the best to ever do it. Aldo has shown that he still has a lot in the tank, and we have seen Volkanovski prove that he deserves to be facing top competition. Volkanovski is going to be the fighter pushing the pace and he averages over 6 significant strikes landed per minute, at a 60% accuracy. Aldo only lands 3.53 per minute at a 44% accuracy. However, he lands the harder and more technical shots. If this fight hits the ground it will likely be Volkanovski getting the takedowns. Aldo has excellent takedown defense though, so we could see a striking battle here. I think Volkanovski has the pace to break most fighters, but I am not sure he can do that to Aldo in a 3-round fight. I do think if this fight was anywhere other than Brazil we could see Volkanovski be the slight favorite here. I do think this is still a 50/50 fight, so I will say it is dog or pass and I will pick Volkanovski to pull off the upset. I think he could own the belt one day and if that is the case he will need to prove it by beating a top-notch guy like Aldo.
On DraftKings, I expect Volkanovski to be very chalky and rightfully so. He is my preferred play here and his past scores pretty much make him a guy you can’t fade if you are MMEing. I don’t see him having the ceiling he did in his past fights vs Aldo, but those numbers are hard to ignore. His 6 UFC wins have each totaled over 100 DK points. From most recent fight to his debut, these are his DK scores: 107, 100, 129, 116, 107, and 115. That is pretty amazing, and I think he has a good chance of upsetting the legend here and maybe getting a finish for another high score. I will likely be overweight on Volkanovski here and I can see him being in half my lineups. I also want exposure to Aldo as well because he is Volkanovski’s toughest test and he could get a finish himself. If I was making 10 lineups I would likely have 5 Volkanovski and 2 Aldo. I think Volkanovski makes my cash lineup this week as well.
Winner – Alex Volkanovski via Split Decision
Jared Cannonier $8,700 vs Anderson Silva $7,500
Jared Cannonier
Age: 35
Height: 5’11
Weight: 205
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Alaska
UFC Record: 4-5
Fight Matrix: 13
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -130
Jared Cannonier looked excellent in his UFC MW debut. He got a knockout on short notice of perennial top 15 fighter David Branch & now has a huge opportunity. A victory over Anderson Silva would make him a household name. Cannonier is a very good striker with big knockout power. He has super-fast hand combinations, especially his jab and straight-right hand. He has a hands down game with incredible head movement and is able to evade punches while coming back with quick, powerful counter punches. He shows a good kicking game as well, but I think he should utilize kicks more once he is more comfortable with takedown defense. He has a great switch head kick and rocked an opponent with a front kick to the face. He has nasty, body kicks and his kicks are very fast and powerful. He will demoralize his opponents by walking them down with his hands down, making them miss and countering them, making them shy to throw the rest of the fight. He has big power and 5 KO/TKO’s in 10 wins. He has a good chin and is willing to take punches to give punches. He has been finished via strikes two times, but those were against massive guys. Cannonier has two losses in a row, but to me Blachowicz and Reyes are top 5 LHWs. He has confidence that 185 is his weight class and will come out swinging.
Cannonier is not a great wrestler and can get taken down pretty easily. He is stronger in the clinch than defending shots, can land short elbows and has good balance and strength making him hard to takedown in that position. He has problems defending single legs, and Glover Texiera was easily able to take him down continuously with it. He did defend a single leg in his last fight against Dom Reyes and I’m sure he’s been working hard on that defense. He isn’t very active off his back and isn’t good at getting back up. He does have good defense and doesn’t take much damage, but he struggles to get back to his feet. In his last fight with David Branch he was able to stand up after being taken down & it wore Branch down. If he can get on top, he is very dangerous. He has nasty ground & pound elbows, and a few career submissions. He has a rear naked choke and armbar in his career, but he isn’t really a submission threat. He has never been submitted himself. He has great cardio and he has had big round 3s in his UFC career really taking over. Cannonier can’t respect Silva here. He has to walk him down in round one, use his superior speed & athleticism at this point and try to knock him out.
Anderson Silva
Age: 44
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: Team Nogueira
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 17-5-1
Fight Matrix: 15
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 1-3-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +110
Anderson Silva had a valiant performance in his last fight. He was tied 1-1 going into the third round against current interim MW champion Israel Adesanya. He looked faster & more athletic than in the Brunson fight, and as if the time off did him some good. He will be getting a chance to fight a hot prospect in Brazil & prove he is still a threat. Silva still will look to throw a lot of jabs, fakes & feints to set up kicks. He has good front & round kicks to the body. He will throw out a one-two and has a decent right hook in the pocket. He still will try to use his head movement & counter, but he has been getting hit more & his counters come slower. He does a good job of grabbing his opponent’s hands and dragging them down, then throwing head kicks, and still has dangerous kicks from unusual angles. He has relied heavily on keeping fighters at kicking range & using his length, but in this fight, he is going to be at a reach disadvantage against a fellow kicker. Silva hasn’t scored a knockout since 2012 and is 1-4-1 in his last 6 fights. He does have 22 career knockouts. He used to have an iron chin, but his durability is diminished. He was finished twice by Weidman and rocked many times by Bisping. He has only been KO’d twice in his career.
Silva used to be known as a devastating clinch fighter. He destroyed Rich Franklin with knees in the Muay Thai plum, and if he still gets that position, I feel he’s still dangerous. In his last fight against Derek Brunson, he was grabbing the single collar clinch & just staying there allowing Brunson to connect with some big punches. He has never been known as a wrestler, but I do see the slight potential he may try to take Cannonier down here. Silva is a judo black belt & has decent wrestling. He has decent double leg & body lock takedowns. When he gets on top, he does a great job of standing in the guard & raining down accurate punches. He is a black belt in BJJ, but not a huge submission threat. He did get a triangle off his back against Chael Sonnen and attacked with kimuaras previously. He got a rear naked choke against Dan Henderson. His takedown defense was good vs Brunson, but I don’t think he will need it here. He still has decent overall cardio. He needs to just use his likely superior striking to keep Cannonier guessing and slow down the pace of the fight. If he can get Cannonier to respect him, and then start getting his reads that’s when he can become dangerous.
This fight isn’t the co-main event of a PPV in Brazil because of Cannonier. This fight was set up for Silva and even at 44 years of age, I think he is a live dog in this spot. He is clearly not the same guy of old, but he still has enough to be able to beat Cannonier. The big worry here is getting knocked out. Jared as a lot of power and if he lands clean, especially early when he is fresh, then he could KO Silva for sure. I just think if he doesn’t get that KO, this is Anderson’s fight. I think it will be a slower paced fight, but Silva can still get a KO of his own and if this hits the scorecards I have to think they lean Silva in a close fight in Brazil. I think this is a dog or pass fight and I will be rooting for Silva to get the job done.
I expect Silva to be a popular play this week on DraftKings. And I like him too. But I’m not sure he is worth going overweight to the field with. I like him more for cash games where we don’t need a high scoring win from him. For GPPs I expect him to be 30% or more owned and I am not sure that is worth it. If he wins, I think it is going to be by a decision and I could see that being a 60-point win. That won’t win $30k. Cannonier is actually the better play for GPPs because he will probably be lower owned, and I think he has a higher ceiling with a 1st round KO. I do see this fight being close to 60% owned by the field so I think the best play here is to let them soak up that ownership and we go underweight. If this fight goes to a decision, then it probably kills off ~60% of lineups. I will be taking shots on both guys personally, but if I am making 10 lineups I would have maybe 2 Silva and 1 Cannonier. This won’t be a fight I target heavily but it will be one that the field does.
Winner – Anderson Silva via Unanimous Decision
Jessica Andrade $8,300 vs Rose Namajunas $7,900
Jessica Andrade
Age: 27
Height: 5’2
Weight: 115
Reach: 62”
Gym: Paraná Vale Tudo
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 10-4
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -120
Jessica Andrade is getting a second crack at a UFC title. She has 3 dominant victories since her UD loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk and looks like a killer. She is getting to fight for the belt in her home country. Jessica Andrade is a powerhouse, terminator type fighter. She keeps extreme pressure on opponents and is constantly walking them down. She will attack the body & head with ripping hooks & overhands. She will throw a left hook to the body to left hook to the head combination. When she backs opponents up towards the cage, she has the cardio to unload with long combinations & try to overwhelm and take opponents out. She landed a nasty right hook that knocked her opponent out cold in her last fight. She will occasionally throw leg kicks, but she is almost exclusively a boxer. She has a great chin and will continue to march forward even after being hit. She tends to only come in on straight lines & when she fought Joanna, she was throwing at air a lot. She can be countered with straight punches & kicks and doesn’t really care about defense. She has been dropped a couple times in fights, but largely has been able to eat shots no problem. Even in the fights she got dropped, she recovered quickly and went right back on the offensive. Andrade has 6 KO/TKO’s & has been finished by strikes two times.
Andrade is an excellent wrestler. She is a powerhouse and will manhandle opponents. When she gets in the clinch, she can elevate opponents & get big slams or get big trip takedowns. She took Claudia Gadelha on some rides with huge slam takedowns. She doesn’t shoot takedown shots much, but when she gets in the clinch, fighters are getting taken down. When she gets in top position, she has heavy thudding ground & pound and has finished a couple fights with it. She will try to move to dominant positions & finish the fight. She has 7 career submissions. She will jump on guillotines & she has decent submissions. She has been submitted a couple times herself, but at 135 lbs. She has been submitted twice. Andrade has phenomenal cardio & needs it here. Early on I see her coming forward hard & trying to take Rose’s head off. If she struggles with the movement & getting inside I see her trying to take her down. If she can cut off the cage, get in the clinch, I see her getting Rose down, and on top she is going to look to do damage and finish the fight. She isn’t someone who uses lay & pray & it will be interesting if Rose’s BJJ will be effective or not. If Andrade can bully Rose, she will win the fight.
Rose Namajunas
Age: 26
Height: 5’5
Weight: 115
Reach: 65”
Gym: Genesis Training Center
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 6-2
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +100
Rose Namajunas comes into her third consecutive championship fight as the underdog. She was the underdog in the rematch even after getting a first round knockout over the strawweight Queen, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and is a slight underdog again in this spot. She is taking the challenge as the champion to defend her belt in Andrade’s home country, and I feel Rose enjoys fighting under a little adversity. Rose Namajunas is a dynamic fighter both on the feet and on the ground and has dominated her last two opponents finishing them. Rose has great movement and will move in and out and enter from different angles, landing overhand rights and a nasty left hook that she dropped Joanna with. She is very flowy with her combinations and can just drop strikes in and get out of the way. She has a very good jab and very good straight-right counter. On the outside, she gets better as the fight goes on and unless you make it ugly she will start to really piece you up from the outside. She has nice leg kicks as well and had a nasty head kick against Michelle Waterson off the break. She was making Joanna miss badly in the first fight as Joanna was waiting for Rose to come in and throwing one-twos and jabs at air. She needs to use a lot of movement, jabs, & kicks to keep Andrade at the end of her shots & finesse her. Rose only has 1 TKO, but she has power especially in her kicks. She has never been finished by strikes.
Rose is a very good Jiu-Jitsu player and has some great submissions in the past. Rose isn’t the strongest competitor, but she still has solid takedowns, she will attack with an odd trip takedown off a punch combination that is very effective and will go for singles as well. She sometimes can get bullied in the clinch and hit with punches and hurt like vs Torres or hit with knees and elbows and worn down like vs Karolina. She was taken down & controlled by Carla Esparza, and she needs to have her grappling on point to win this fight. She is very opportunistic with her Jiu-Jitsu and will dive on submissions, go for flying armbars and standing rear naked chokes etc. She has solid ground and pound and does a great job of taking the back. Andrade tends to overextend on combinations & Joanna was able to take her back standing several times in the later rounds. I could see Rose using that mistake against Andrade and taking her back. Rose has 8 submissions & has finished 9 of her 11 wins. She is 2-2 in submissions. Rose needs to use her lateral movement & maintain distance. She has to use her jab, leg kicks & keep Andrade on the outside. If she can keep the fight standing, I see her having the edge with her movement volume & range control, unless she gets tagged with a big shot.
This should be a fun one. Rose is the current champ of the division and coming into this fight as the betting underdog. We don’t see that often in the UFC, but I thought this could be the case where we do. Andrade is by far the most intimidating fighter in that division and she throws the heaviest punches as well. You don’t usually think of knockouts when we are talking about 115 lb women, but Andrade can knock fighters’ unconscious. She also has solid takedowns and a decent top game as well. She definitely earned this title shot and she has a lot more experience as well. So, I can see why the line is where it is. However, I think Rose might be getting a bit overlooked here. I think she is the more technical fighter and she can hang anywhere in this fight. I think she also has the edge on the ground and if there is a submission in this fight I think it would be from Rose. I also have seen everybody and their mother picking Andrade here and all those big casinos in Vegas weren’t built by everybody being right. I am going to side with the champ here and I think she can win by a decision or a submission. She needs to fight at range and that is how she can win this fight on the feet. I will lean with her locking up a RNC submission though.
On DraftKings, this is our all-in fight. I won’t have a single lineup without this fight and I’d be shocked if the winner wasn’t on the $30k lineup. With these two being in the mid-range of the salaries it won’t be hard for the winner to pay off their price tag and probably score closer to 100 DK points. My preferred play is Rose because she is the underdog and I am picking her to win. But I wouldn’t talk you off Andrade being your preferred play. I totally understand it. And she will be in all my non-Rose lineups I will also likely stack this fight in cash. But, I will be heavier on Rose here and I will probably 6-4 or 7-3 in favor of Rose if I was making 10 lineups. I think all in on either fighter is a bad idea, but this is an all-in fight as a whole and I may even stack it once or twice in a GPP to be contrarian. Not sure about that yet, but it has crossed my mind. I expect this to be a fun fight that scores well and I will be hoping I have a live lineup either way. I think you should take your favorite Andrade lineup and duplicate it with Rose instead and that way you are a bit more contrarian by leaving money on the board and if that is the nuts lineup then you win either way.
Winner – Rose Namajunas via 3rd round Submission
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t takedown a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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I am 76-45 for +260.95 (+$26,095) since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets.