The Sway Bar: NASCAR Draftkings Plays, Fades and Values for Bristol

HARVICK FAILED INSPECTION THREE TIMES AND WILL START FROM THE BACK. HE HAS TO SERVE A PASS THROUGH AT THE START AND WILL END UP LAPS DOWN. HE IS ALMOST UNPLAYABLE NOW 

 

It’s Bristol, baby! This week we had to Tennessee for some short track madness. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.

Top Plays

Kevin Harvick – Harvick regains control of top play of the week after a tremendous weekend of practice. He has top five speed in just about any metric you look at it and is historically the model on consistency at Bristol. He starts 13th, which is kind of a dead zone at Bristol, but he should break the mold this weekend. I expect he will compete for the win and lead a bunch of laps in the process.

Kyle Busch – It hasn’t been a great weekend for Kyle Busch. He found some shortrun speed in final practice but that is about it. However – Sunday is all that matters. KB is boom or bust at Bristol, but starting 17th lends itself alot more to “booming”. Look for Kyle to charge towards the front in the first stage and hang around the top five all day.

Ryan Blaney – This is a really interesting play, and his viability really depends on what you think his ownership will be. It is pretty obvious Blaney is the fastest of the cars starting in the top five, but he hasn’t been all that good at Bristol in his career. I think Chase starting ahead of him on the pole, his inflated price, and his lackluster Bristol history will push his ownership low enough for him to be a really good contrarian play – albeit somewhat risky.

Kurt Busch – Kurt keeps his top play streak alive thanks to his abysmal 2019 qualifying efforts. He starts 27th, and despite being pretty slow overall in practice he did show a little longrun speed. Kurt is a veteran and if nothing else he should keep the nose clean and end up in the top ten. He is priced pretty high though, so don’t feel he is a lock due to his starting spot.

 

Worth Mentioning

Clint Bowyer and Jimmie Johnson are both worth a look, too.

Value Plays

Ryan Preece – Preece may be a rookie, but he is by no means inexperienced when it comes to Bristol. He has Modified and Xfinity wins here and has run countless races. He has had a pretty bad weekend and will start from the rear in a backup. It shouldn’t matter as he is being scored from 30th and has top ten talent. If he stays out of trouble he has a real good shot at being in the optimal.

Chirs Buescher – Speaking of a “pretty good chance of being in the optimal” – Chris Buescher! Buescher rolls off 25th but should pretty consistent top 20 speed across all metrics. He is a saavy short track racer with a penchant for staying out of trouble. This is actually one of my favorite plays of the weekend.

Matt Dibenedetto – This is a weird one for me. Matt D is a pretty solid short track racer and he had an amazing final practice, showing top five speed across all metrics. By all accounts he should fight for a top ten agaisnt his 21st starting spot. However, I fear his speed and track history will push him super overowned. I am playing him for sure – probably around 25%, fully aware that the field may be closer to 30%.

Ross Chastain (or anyone else expect Bayley Currey or Gray Gaulding) – Bristol can be a wreckfest, and that means any of the back markers can end up in the top 25 by default. Chastain represents may favorite play of the sub $6000 gang – but any of them can get a look. Don’t play any RWR cars though, they tend to not finish races.

So there it is folks. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.