Shark Autopsy Report – Analyzing MMA GPP Lineups to Make You a Better Player

Welcome back to the Shark Autopsy Report!  If this is your first time reading the Shark Autopsy Report, Welcome!  Over the course of the MMA season this article will deconstruct winning DraftKings lineups in contests where the dark waters of Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) contests that are ripe with sharks.  Navigating these waters where the sharks smell blood in the water is not easy, but the DFSArmy has you covered, providing you with the essential daily tools to help our VIPs turn into sharks!

Follow me on Twitter and if you are a VIP I will see you in the MMA channels.  I enjoy seeing and hearing from all of the VIPs when things go well.  If you aren’t a VIP member, there’s an easy way to get a free month to test the Army out.  The Army has all of the content, tools, second-to-none Domination Station Optimizer, and the most accessible MMA staff and coaches in the industry to guide you in your journey of becoming a better DFS player.

Little Bit about the DFSArmy

For those of you who are new to Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) and are looking for a top notch, second to none DFS site that can provide you with the tools to construct quality DFS lineups like the pros use, then look no further, the DFSArmy has you covered.  At DFSArmy, we don’t just focus on the major sports, we also look at the niche sports and place as much of a focus on dominating the competition as the major sports.  DFSArmy’s coaches are truly amazing at their crafts, and the MMA coaches are no different, with each coach spending hours upon hours researching each fight card to the nth degree.  DFSArmy prides ourselves on the ability of our coaches to teach and provide our members with the methodologies, processes, tools and thought processes to become an equitable DFS player, who can grow their bankroll with proper bankroll management and turn your everyday DFS Joe into a DFS Pro.  DFSArmy covers all of the DFS sports from the main 4 (MLB, NBA, NFL & NHL) to PGA, MMA, Soccer and College FB and BB.  Additionally, DFSArmy has its own Sportsbook team to help you with sports betting.  The DFSArmy is an all-in one Fantasy Sports and Sportsbook site that you can’t afford to not be a member!  Our members get the opportunity to learn from the top MMA DFS players that are all highly ranked by RotoGrinders.

Synopsis of the Shark Autopsy Report

The Shark Autopsy Report is different from the other DFS site’s lineup breakdown articles that you can read online, as there are a multitude of these types of articles.  The Shark Autopsy Report provides you with a breakdown of the top ranked DFS pros lineups construction, from the total number of lineups they utilized each fighter in the Uppercut contest, their percentage of that fighter drafted overall in the Uppercut contest, the percentage the tourney field drafted the fighter, and the variance between the DFS Pros’ percentage drafted of a particular fighter as compared with the tourney field.  Note: with the Shark Autopsy Report, you will see negative and positive variance percentages.  The positive variance values showcase the DFS Pros were overweight on a particular fighter as compared to the tourney field and negative variance values showcase the DFS Pros were underweight on a particular fighter as compared to the tourney field.

Are You Performing Weekly Lineup Deconstruction?

No matter the sport you determine to invest your bankroll, you should as a DFS player be analyzing the contests you enter winning lineups and the DFS Pros’ lineups within those contests.  Don’t just look at the lineup of who won the contests you entered, but familiarize yourself with how the top 20 constructed their lineup and the DFS Pros’ lineups.  If you are new to Daily Fantasy Sports and are not familiar with the DFS Pros that compete (not participate) in the respective sport you are playing, then go to RotoGrinders Leaderboards and look at each sport’s leaderboards.  The top guys are there and familiarize yourself with their screen names.  Lineup deconstruction in some way, shape or form should be part of your repertoire as a DFS player to revisit the prior week’s winning lineups, not just for the top heavy payout contests (think NFL Milly Maker, MMA Throwdown), but all of the contests you entered to see how the winning lineups were constructed.  Additionally, you should be looking at your own lineups to determine WHY certain plays in your lineups went off and WHY other plays did not.  This will ultimately make you a better player, but it will help you determine lineup construction trends you may not have otherwise noticed if you were not reviewing over past week’s lineups.  If you don’t think that lineup construction is as much an art as it is a science, then you are simply kidding yourself and you need to rethink your methodology of lineup construction.

DraftKings $150K Throwdown Contest – April 13th UFC 236 Slate

Only one word can define the UFC 236 Main Event fight between Holloway and Poirer, Amazing!!! Unlike the NFL Milly Maker and Sunday Million contests, MMA doesn’t offer tourney top prize payouts that the casual DFS players will flock to.  In fact, similar to other niche sports, MMA has smaller contest pools and smaller contest payouts, though the payouts in the Uppercut are really good.  As compared to the NFL, the Throwdown is MMA’s equivalent to the Milly Maker.  Like any other sport you intend to enter lineups, make sure that you are researching the contests and strategizing the right contests to enter for you and know that not every contest is created equal to another.

Analyzing Throwdown Tourney’s Top 20 Lineups

Lineups tying throughout the Throwdown tourney is not uncommon in MMA, actually it is a commonality.  Within the top 20 lineups, the highest owned fighter was Israel Adesanya, the Co-Main Event Champ, who was owned in 100% of the top 20 lineups.  But, nearly equally owned was the Main Event Champ, Dustin Poirier at 90%.  As compared to the field, the top 20 lineups were 68.10% overweight on Adesanya and 59.33% overweight on Poirier.  The other fighters that the top 20 field were overweight as compared to the tourney field were Khalil Rountree (54.92%% overweight variance), Alexandre Pantoja (63.88% overweight variance, which was actually the second highest overweight variance fighter amongst the top 20 lineups), Montel Jackson (26.42% overweight variance), and Matt Frevola (35.91% overweight variance).  Adesanya, Poirier, Pantoja, Rountree, Frevola, and Jackson were all in the top scoring lineup in the Throwdown tourney.  Khalid Taha was the only other fighter to score over 100 DK Pts. on the slate at 102.5 and the top 20 lineups were overweight on him at 23.23% to the field.

We see a very similar dynamic across all DFS sports, no matter which sport it is, that picking your spots on one or two players or fighters to be contrarian on is THE most optimal lineup construction methodology.  Going full contrarian at more than that will lead to the least optimal lineup construction.  If you read my NFL Shark Autopsy Report articles, you were able to see over the course of the 2018 – 2019 NFL season that this ideology held true at a very high percentage of the time within the top 10 scoring lineups in the Milly Maker contest.

Tourney Winner’s Total Number of Lineups

It never ceases to amaze me that many casual players across the DFS industry believe that the only way to win the top prize in the big contest tournaments is to max enter the contests with the hope that one of those lineups will hit “The Nutz”.  I am here as I was during the NFL season to tell you, you are DEAD WRONG!  The top scoring lineup was that of CPerdue19 who had a single bullet in the contest that scored 657, edging out second place by 2 points.  There were 6 DFS players that tied in the 2nd place position, and how many of them do you think max entered the contest……   That’s right, NONE OF THEM!  In fact the highest number of lineups entered by any one of the 6 participants who tied for 2nd overall was 3 lineups.

Now does max entering the big tournaments lower your overall variance amongst the field and set you up in a position for one of the 150 lineups to hit “The Nutz”, absolutely, but that is the mathematics of it isn’t it!  To

Analyzing DFS Pros Fighter Usage

The top 20 were overweight on the following fighters: Israel Adesanya, Dustin Poirer, Khalil Rountree, Alexandre Pantoja, Matt Frevola, Montel Jackson, and Khalid Taha.  So, how did the DFS Pros’ fighter usage stack up?  The Shark Autopsy Report will analyze some of the top DFS Pros in the MMA ranks to determine where the spots (fighters) they placed their highest amount of ownership upon and the fighters they faded (minimal to no usage).  Of the DFS Pros’ lineups we’ll be looking at are BDHolla89 and Moklovin.  BDHolla89 is the number 1 ranked overall MMA player per RotoGrinders and Moklovin is 3rd ranked overall MMA player.  Additionally, we’ll be looking at ChiefST and BigMarley3 lineups.  ChiefST is currently ranked 11th overall per RotoGrinders MMA rankings and BigMarley3 is currently ranked 15th overall per RotoGrinders MMA rankings.  An additional notes about ChiefST and BigMarley3, they are MMA coaches for the DFSArmy and when you become a VIP Member, you will have access to them as coaches for valuable lineup construction and fighter information that you would not get anywhere else in the industry!  Additionally, BigMarley3 is MMA Expert for CBS Sports and SportsLine, winner of the coveted MMA ToutMaster, and is one of, if not, the top MMA bettor in the industry.  It pays to have coaches like these paving the way for you!

Looking at BDHolla89 and Moklovin fighter usage and lineups, we can get an idea of the fighters they used as shown below.  Let’s see their ownership of the Throwdown field’s highest owned fighters (Max Holloway and Jalin Turner), as well as the 2 highest owned fighters in the top 20 lineups (Israel Adesanya and Dustin Poirer) to get a sense of how much valuation they place on those two fighters.

As you can see in the above diagrams, BDHolla89 utilized Max Holloway in 60% of his lineups which he was underweight on the tourney field by 5%.  BDHolla89 was overweight on the field by 7% in his utilization of Jalin Turner in 49% of his lineups.  BDHolla89 was overweight on the field by 8% in his utilization of Israel Adesanya in 40% of his lineups.  BDHolla89 was overweight on the field by 5% in his utilization of Dustin Poirer in 35% of his lineups.  BDHolla89 rode the wave of the field thinking that Max Holloway would win the Main Event, but was slightly underweight to the field on Holloway as a whole.  In fact, BDHolla89 placed the highest portion of his ownership on three fighters, Max Holloway at 60%, Kelvin Gastelum at 55.33%, and Belal Muhammed at 57.33%.  BDHolla89’s exposure to the Co-Main Event fights of over half of his lineups were definitely the correct way to build lineups around, but fell short on the wrong side of the ownership battle and how the fights played out.

As you can see in the above diagrams, Moklovin utilized Max Holloway in 62% of his lineups which he was underweight on the tourney field by 3%.  Moklovin was underweight on the field by 2% in his utilization of Jalin Turner in 41% of his lineups.  Moklovin was underweight on the field by 14% in his utilization of Israel Adesanya in 18% of his lineups.  Moklovin was overweight on the field by 3% in his utilization of Dustin Poirer in 34% of his lineups.  Like BDHolla89, Moklovin did not believe Israel Adesanya would not perform well in terms of overall DK Pts. scored to roster him over Gastelum.  Moklovin rostered Gastelum in 45.86% of his lineups.  This is a stand that Moklovin took as did BDHolla89, and sometimes those stands work out and sometimes they don’t.  After Max Holloway, Moklovin’s highest percentage of ownership was placed on Montel Jackson at 55.64%.  Calculating the total ownership % for the Co-Main Event fights, Moklovin’s ownership to these two fights was a combined 159.4% out of a possible 600% total fighter ownership.

Side-by-Side Comparison of DFS Pros Fighter Usage

BDHolla89 faded (0-3 total lineups where a fighter was used) five fighters, Wilson Reis, Alan Jouban, Max Griffin and Andre Soukhamthath.  Good calls on Reis, Jouban and Soukhamthath.  Not so good on Griffin and Rountree.  Moklovin faded the same number of fighters at five, Saint Preux, Frevola, Costa, Rountree, and Soukhamthath.

DFSArmy’s Coaches Fighter Usage

ChiefST placed huge significance on Matt Frevola at 92.86% ownership (that’s basically ALL-IN).  Nice Call!  ChiefST also had significant ownership in the Main Event with 117.85% ownership in Holloway and Poirer.  But how can he be over 100% exposed to these fighters who fought each other, you ask?  He stacked the Main Event in a number of his Throwdown lineups.  His ownership was rounded out with 64.29% in Montel Jackson.

BigMarley3 had 81.21% ownership combined in the Main Event, with Poirer in 54.14% of his lineups.  BigMarley3 loved him some Jalin Turner on the DFSArmy’s podcast and it showed in his ownership of Turner at 40.6%.  Similarly to ChiefST, Montel Jackson was owned in over 50% of his lineups.  BigMarley3 believed that Adesanya would dominate Gastelum, and his ownership variance amongst the two fighters showcased that with a 48.12% to 3.76% ownership variance.  Great Call!  Rounding out his top owned fighters was Krylov, BigMarley3 stated the importance of the middling salary tiered fighters of $7,800 to $8,400 as the keys to taking down the $30K top prize and it showed in his ownership of Krylov.

To conclude this installment of the Shark Autopsy Report, the DFS Army was started based on the concept that brings high-level tools, projections, and information to average players would allow them to compete on a level playing field with the DFS pros that have been dominating the industry for years. Check out our full Wall of Wins to see countless other screenshots from regular players utilizing DFS Army tools and advice to take down 6 figure prizes on a regular basis. Sign up as a DFS Army VIP today to take your game to the next level and start competing like a pro.