Schnarr’s Super Picks DFS PGA Preview – RBC Heritage

Every week on the PGA Tour a new course means a new set of challenges. This article will examine the course being played and give specific insight on some keys for the week that other previews may be overlooking. This article will also breakdown players who stand out on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Cash Game and GPP formats. Finally, I will be reviewing my picks from before and going into a deeper dive on my Cash Game team in an attempt to better my own process while hopefully helping you with yours. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr

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Review from last week

The Masters has come and gone and it was definitely one for the ages. As a golf fan or just general sports fan watching you just witnessed a truly incredible moment with Tiger winning in what was one of the craziest back nines with players climbing up and down the leaderboard. From a DFS perspective lets see how I did.

The 2 Studs (Rory/DJ) $11K And Up

On Monday I wrote how both players were obviously in play with the soft pricing and great recent form/course history. On Monday I wrote how I lean Rory and on Wednesday in my final notes for members I changed that and wrote how I lean DJ out of the two. Ultimately, both players finished inside of the top 20 for fantasy scoring, with DJ outdueling Rory with the 8^th best performance for the week at a cheaper price and a lower level of ownership.

$10K and up (Justin Rose, Tiger Woods, Justin ThomasP, Jon Rahm)

 I wrote how Rahm was my favourite and JT was the guy I was taking a stand on and planning to be underweight. I ended up back on JT and underweight on Rose and Woods. For Tiger, I was dead wrong, I wrote to members how I planned to be underweight on Tiger – I ended up at 10% as I thought ownership would be closer to the 20% level. I was underweight on Rose with 6% ownership, right around the field at 15% on JT and overweight on Rahm with 30%

$9K and up (Rickie Fowler, Brooks Koepka, Bryson Dechambeau, Tommy Fleetwood, Jason Day, Paul Casey)

 I wrote up how I loved this range for getting multiple guys for cash games (that did not work out for me with Casey as you will see later. I was ultimately underweight on Rickie, attempting to be underweight on Brooks but actually ended up overweight (sometimes you get lucky) underweight on Dechambeau, field average on Tommy, Overweight on Day and overweight on Casey. This group ultimately had mixed results with being overweight on Day and Brooks (albeit unintentionally) working out for me while being overweight on Casey hurting a bunch of my teams.

$8k and up (Jordan Spieth, Bubba Watson, Hideki Matsuyama, Francesco Molinari, Xander Schauffele, Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson, Tony Finau, Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed)

This group was incredibly interesting with a bunch of different guys coming in with interesting storylines. Personally, I ended underweight on Spieth, off of Bubba entirely, overweight on the chalky Hideki, overweight on Francesco, under on Xander, over on Scott, off of Phil, under on Finau, Louis and Patrick. An up and down group for me, while I was overweight on #2 and #3 out of this group I had very little of Xander who was second overall for the week.

Matt Kuchar – DK: $7900

Wrote up in my final notes how Kuchar was an automatic lock for me in cash and in GPP I was a little underweight at 15%. Kuchar was great with a top 15 fantasy performance, but ultimately did not ruin me being a little bit underweight.

Charley Hoffman/Si Woo Kim/Kevin Kisner

On my final notes I wrote how I would use Hoffman but underweight and instead be overweight on Kim and Kisner out of this group. This worked out somewhat with Kim outperforming Hoffman, however Hoffman outperformed Kisner. Ultimately, all three were within six points so it wasn’t a big discrepancy either way.

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Course Preview

 In this section I will point out a few things that I find interesting about the course. If you’re a member at the Army you also have Josh’s article for more extensive reasoning on what the key stats are and our Domination Station showing what stats have been the most important historically.

• Pete Dye design this week at Harbour Town – a 7099 yard par 71 with three par fives.
• The design really deters going driver off of the green so you really do not see much of it out of players this week. As a result, Driving stats have relatively little importance this week.
• With the smallest greens on tour we see two stats get a big bump – SG: Approach and SG: Around the green. Players will need to be on to give themselves birdie putts and will need to scramble well and avoid bogeys when they inevitably miss the green.
• Perhaps in part to the unique aspects the come with Pete Dye designs, we often see the same players perform well year after year – it is definitely a week where course history should get more merit.
• Although it is the week after a major we still see a great field with guys like DJ, Molinari, Dechambeau, Spieth, Fleetwood and Schauffele all teeing it up.

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 Interesting Plays

 In this section I will discuss plays that I like/dislike and guys that I find interesting for the week. Because this article comes out on a Monday this list can change, anyone I change my mind on will be discussed later in the week in our PGA coaching channel

Dustin Johnson – DK: $11600

 DJ is coming off of perhaps the quietest T2 in Masters history as he never really saw himself at the top of the leaderboard but on the back 9 on Sunday was suddenly right there with the leaders. DJ for me is still in a class of his own and the price point this week does not necessarily suggest that. In weeks where the pricing isn’t soft (i.e. any week that isn’t a major) I typically try to be underweight of these top salaries in an effort to build teams I feel have a better advantage of winning it all. However, with DJ being under $12k, in a week where he is coming in with great form I find it hard to be underweight. I will be very interested as the week goes on as to what DJ’s ownership is projected to be and will likely be overweight unless it gets way up there.

$10K and Up (Francesco Molinari, Xander Schauffele, Bryson Dechambeau, Matt Kuchar)

 A very interesting grouping with all players finishing inside the top 30 at the Masters and Molinari/Xander in serious contention. This grouping is also very fascinating for me as it’s all guys that I would think fit the mold for Pete Dye courses. On first look I think Kuchar draws huge ownership after a great week and good success at Dye events. Personally, I am not sure where I will be and most of my play will be based on ownership – but, for cash game purposes if I can find a way to fit in Kuchar he will be on my team.

 $9K and Up (Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Jim Furyk, Webb Simpson, Tommy Fleetwood, Kevin Kisner, Si Woo Kim)

 The funniest observation on this group is that Fleetwood was $9200 on DK for the Masters and is $9200 this week while guys like Kisner and Kim were under $7k last week and are priced all the way up. Comparing odds to prices we see that Fleetwood is the misprice of the top tier and that makes this tier interesting. Will he suck up all of the ownership and have others around him carry a low number or will ownership somewhat spread out? Personally, I see myself on Cantlay, Spieth, Simpson and Tommy but we will have to wait and see how ownership is playing out.

Jason Kokrak, Charles Howell, Ian Poulter

All three have been relatively chalky lately and all three have been playing great, with all three priced next to each other it will be interesting to see how the ownership plays out and you will certainly be able to get Horschel above of Fitzpatrick below at a little lower ownership.

Lucas Glover, Charley Hoffman, Russell Knox

 Just like the three above, this tier is the same except $1000 cheaper. We should see ownership on all three making the guys above and below likely low owned GPP options. Personally I think I like Knox most upon first look but that can all change, be sure to check back to my year end notes.

Cash Game Review

I will end each article going over my double-up cash game line-up for the week, breaking down my plays and reflecting for the following week

The Team (6.5-5.5) – Current Streak 2 Loss

Masters did not go as planned, I will update this section later in the week

Justin Rose – MC

Paul Casey – MC

Hideki Matsuyama – T32

Matt Kuchar – T12

Charley Hoffman – T29

Kevin Kisner – T21

I felt with the soft pricing there was a few different ways to go this week. To start, I felt I had to lock in Hideki Matsuyama and Matt Kuchar, both guys were priced incorrectly, coming in with good form and have had good results here in the past. The next player that essentially was a lock for me was Paul Casey for similar reason.  Casey was at 25% ownership so myself and a quarter of the field had some room to make up after a 12 point performance from Casey.  With those three more or less locked in I found myself obviously having Kisner and Hoffman in mind, which did give enough money for Justin Rose, or I found I could use one of those guys (Kisner as choice #1) and fill out the rest of my team with the low $8k range. I ultimately decided on the former because I was not a fan of the low $8k range and felt this setup gave me just about as much confidence on a 6/6 with the upside of Rose as a real shot to contend and win on the week.  Ultimately, this did not work out and the losing streak is now up to 2 weeks.