Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We’re at the last short track race of this little stretch, and we won’t see another one until August.
As always, if you haven’t already, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it.
Richmond Raceway
Richmond is a short track, but it’s a little different than the other two we just saw. It’s more similar to Martinsville (flat), though it is a little faster due to it being slightly bigger. It doesn’t have Bristol’s banking though, so it won’t be as fast as that track.
Also, statistically speaking, Richmond is one of (if not the) safest tracks on the circuit, and that was before this new package showed up. I expect to see long green flag runs, which creates a couple of scenarios that will be important (more on this later).
So what does this all mean? Like the other short tracks, there are some drivers that excel at this one, while others tend to struggle. We’ll get to that later, but for now, remember that this is a different race than the other two, and our approach will need to be a little different once again.
Lineup construction/correlation
Qualifying this week set the field a bit backwards than we saw last week. There were a bunch of great value options at Bristol, but this week we have several expensive drivers starting back, and the value drivers aren’t quite as strong.
With that in mind, I would look at using a balanced or stars & scrubs approach in all formats on both sites. Going heavy on the mid-range doesn’t look as appealing this week as it did last week.
Dominators
Going by the race calculator, we see it likes two to three dominators on DraftKings and one or two of them on FanDuel. Seeing that it’s more difficult to make passes now, and because of how races here have played out in the past, I would look at two dominators on DraftKings and one or two on FanDuel. I don’t think we will need three of them today, even with 400 laps.
I think it’s a pretty safe bet that Harvick will lead the early portion of the race, then somebody else will take over from there. Outside of pit stop cycles, I don’t think we’ll see very many leaders, especially if we get those long green flag runs I’m expecting.
Like last week, I would split the dominators up into two different groups, and take one from each of them. Group 1 mostly represents the early leaders, and group 2 represents the mid/late race options.
Group 1 – Harvick, Kyle Busch, Logano, Kurt, Truex, and Chase
Group 2 – Brad K, Larson, Denny, Bowyer
While it’s entirely possible that two group 1 dominators lead most of the race, I don’t think the bottom end of the salary pool will score enough to make those lineups really pop. I think it’s more likely that only one of them winds up in the winning lineup. However, stranger things have happened, so if you really want to, you can stack two group 1 dominators and hope your punts come through. It’s more viable this week than it was last week.
Regarding Blaney, I know he starts 29th, and I know his practice times looked promising. I also know that he’s 0 for 6 at this track, and that’s very alarming when you consider how safe this track is. Like I mentioned in my notes, he likes bigger/faster tracks, and these short/flat tracks have been his achilles heel.
One or two bad finishes is one thing, but 6 straight finishes of 18th or worse (in good equipment) is not good, especially when you consider how safe the track typically is. Feel free to play him if you like, but I think he’s a great target to fade this week.
Studs
Almirola stands above the other two here, especially on DraftKings where he’s only $7,700. Yes, I know his history doesn’t look the best, but remember that most of that was with the #43, which is a clunker compared to the SHR #10. His April 2018 race wasn’t that great, but do remember that was his first race here in his new car. Like he showed in September, he’s capable of a top-5 here, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him competing for another one today.
Jimmie is the same as he was last week; worth sprinkling around in case he gets a surprise finish, but it’s not a very strong play. Jones isn’t on my radar this week starting 2nd. I don’t think he can pay off his higher salary here.
Value studs
Unlike last week, this group only has a couple of strong plays, and the others are all GPP pivots. Newman and DiBenedetto are my favorite options here and I like them in all formats. I think they’ll both have a pretty decent day, and I think there’s a good chance that one of them winds up in the winning lineup.
I’m not huge on the others, but I would rank them in this order: Suarez/Stenhouse, Byron, Bowman, Dillon, then Buescher/Menard.
I’ve been asked about Buescher, so I wanted to go over him a little. Historically speaking, he’s been the guy to target at big/fast tracks with lots of banking. These shorter/flat tracks haven’t been the place where he really shines. Look at his finishes at Phoenix (16th) and Martinsville (21st), which are the most comparable to Richmond (from what we’ve seen this year at least).
With all of that in mind, I think it will be difficult for him to really pay off here. I wouldn’t mind taking a shot with him if he were starting in the 20s somewhere, because a 15th place finish could still pay off depending on how the other value drivers do. However, starting 10th and finishing 15th isn’t going to do enough to win a GPP, and I think that’s the more
Value
Again, there’s not a ton to love here this week. Ty Dillon is by far my favorite in this price range, and he’s about the only thing really good about this group. He’s good for a finish somewhere between 20th and 23rd, and possibly a little better if he’s really on his game.
The others are a bit riskier (with a lower ceiling) than where they were last week. I would rank them in this order: McDowell, Wallace/Ragan, Preece/Hemric/Tifft, the, Chastain.
I think McDowell has the best chance of moving up to a strong finish, but again, he’s risky just like the others. He hasn’t shown that he can be consistent here like Ty can be, but he does have the upside, so get some of him. The rest I feel have a better chance of finishing where they are starting (or worse), than moving up very much (especially the bottom five).
There’s also the risk that if this race does have long green flag runs (which again, I fully expect to happen), it’s only 3/4 of a mile long, so they can go down in laps pretty quickly. If that happens, they aren’t going to be able to get those spots back to move up. Remember, this is not a track that is known for a bunch of chaos.
Punts
Similar to what I just said about the value drivers, the punts are even scarier this week, and I don’t see a single one of them being able to move up. I think Landon has the best chance of making it happen, but even then, I don’t see him finishing any better than 30th. I’m not against fading the entire group this week.
Stacks
Like most weeks, a Penske stack is in play, but like last week, I prefer a mini-stack instead. Brad K and Logano would be the two to target here, and please note this is a GPP stack due to Logano being a GPP pivot. If you’re big on Blaney and want to use him this week, I would stack him with his teammates as much as possible.
A JGR stack looks very strong this week. The Kyle Busch/Denny version can be used in all formats, but I would save the Truex/Denny version for GPP due to Truex being a GPP pivot. I don’t love the idea of using Jones in this stack, since I don’t think he’ll be able to pay off very easily, but if you think there’s a chance he could dominate early, this would be the best place to use him. If you do use him, be sure to fade Harvick in that lineup since he would directly impact his ceiling.
Finally, SHR is back in play this week, and it starts with Harvick leading the first portion of the race. Pair him up with Aric and Bowyer to complete a cash-safe stack, or throw Suarez into the mix for GPP.
Pivots
Most of the pivots this week will be near the top as dominator pivots (Truex, Logano, etc). I would focus more on getting exposure to them and getting them paired up properly, and then sprinkle around the other pivots (mostly value/value stud drivers) with the DS. They aren’t nearly as strong as they were at Bristol, so be prepared to eat some more chalk this week.
Closing thoughts
Not much left to say this time. This is usually a fairly calm race without a bunch of chaos, and it’s probably going to play out a bit differently (and chalkier) than we saw last week. Be able to adapt to the different tracks, and you’ll put yourself in a much better position to win. Good luck, and see you all in Slack!