Hello DFS Army members and we are now into the month of April! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to be a part of the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re also playing FanDuel tonight, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Today we have a hugeeeee split slate, which makes it a bit more manageable. We’ve got 5 games on the early slate, and 8 on the late slate. This article will cover the main slate.
Value Traps
Thabo Sefolosha ($3,500) – Tonight’s slate has so much value in it with big names sitting that the value can actually become overwhelming. Rubio has already been ruled out for Utah tonight and Crowder is a GTD which makes Sefolosha seem playable. But we went over this a few days ago, having both him and Royce O’Neale back the two of them kill each others value. We even saw it the other night where Rubio and Crowder both got ruled out late and neither of them really did anything FP wise. There’s so much value on this slate, but we’ve got to play the good value, not the turd value that Sefolosha represents. I’ll play guys like Plumlee, and Monte Morris over Royce O’Neale and Thabo Sefolosha any day.
Jahlil Okafor ($4,000) – The emergence of Christian Wood has really hurt Jahlil Okafor. At points this year it looked like he finally turned a corner and made people see why he was drafted so high, only to be passed by the undrafted UNLV product. Anthony Davis is also probable once again (which means he’s probably out given his recent trend) and if we get word that AD is out again people will flock to both Okafor and Wood. He’s currently projected to net you 5.9x value, but given everything I’ve said above, I really doubt he even hits 5x. Even if Okafor does have a good game his ceiling is capped by the presence of Julius Randle and Christian Wood. Given all of these circumstances I’m avoiding Okafor tonight. Remember, we’re going to play the good value tonight, not the trash value.
Just Missed the Cut: Landry Shamet ($3,900) – He’s imply just been awful over the past few games, and even with Gallo already ruled out and Beverley doubtful, I’m still not too high on him either way. I would expect most of the FPs in this one to be scored by Harrell, LouWill and SGA as Shamet is wayyyyyy too scoring dependent and doesn’t chip in peripheral stats at all.
Who’s Trending
Mason Plumlee ($4,700) – Denver has already stated that they are planning on resting Jokic, Millsap, and Murray tonight, which means big minutes for Mason Plumlee. Enes Kanter isn’t known as a great defender, and I think that Denver will have success attacking him. Over the past week Portland has actually been giving up the 2nd most FPs to the Center position, which equals out to 17% more FPPG than the league average. This sets up as a great matchup for Plumlee and Lyles down low and I expect there to be a ton of value on this slate. Right now the RS is projecting him for 7.8x value tonight, and I think that’s extremely realistic and even has some wiggle room for additional upside. I’m going to have a ton of shares of Plumlee tonight.
DeMarcus Cousins ($6,800) – He’s already been confirmed in, and while I expect we’ll hear news that Golden State may be sitting a starter or two, Boogie gets the best matchup either way. We’ve been attacking the Clippers with Centers all year, and I don’t expect to stop tonight, especially given the fact that he is only 6.8K which is ABSURD. He’s wayyyyyy too underpriced tonight and I’m seriously considering hitting the lock button on Boogie tonight, which I don’t do often. It would just make it even better if we get word that Golden State will rest a starter or two considering they pretty much have the 1 seed locked up. But as of now, I’m still playing as much Boogie as I can.
De’Aaron Fox ($6,900) – Many people think that ATL has the worst defense in the NBA, and while it is true, over the past few weeks, the Pelicans have actually been worse and are allowing the most FPPG to teams over the past few weeks of the season. Over the past week, the Pels are ranked 30th aDvP against PGs and are allowing 27%… yes you read that correctly, 27% more FPPG to PGs over the past week. They’ve essentially given up at trying to defend anyone, but have just been horrid against PGs. This sets up well for Fox as this will be an extremely fast paced game and he should have his way with Elfrid Payton on the offensive end. I expect him to have a great game tonight and he’s back under 7K on DraftKings which is criminal. They really messed up some of the pricing tonight and we need to take full advantage.
EDIT: Fox is now questionable, if he doesn’t play this opens up even more value on this slate. Yogi Ferrell would likely start in his place and have a fantastic matchup. If Fox sits it would also bump up Buddy Hield and Marvin Bagley as the Pelicans are bleeding FPs everywhere.
Donovan Mitchell ($8,600) – Mitchell is actually projected to score the most FPs by the RS tonight, over Mr. James Harden and I can definitely see it happening. He’s been trending upwards over the past few games:
Ricky Rubio has also already been ruled out tonight which means that Mitchell will handle some of the PG duties as well. We’ve seen how great he is in that role and he should basically be a lock for 40+ FPs tonight. It just gets juicier that the Lakers are horrible at defending guards without Lonzo Ball and Mitchell should have his way on the offensive end tonight.
Just Missed the Cut: Monte Morris ($4,300) – He’s been fantastic off the bench, and in the few games that he started this year he also played great. He’s one of my favorite players that no one talks about and doesn’t get the recognition he deserves, he should shine in this spot tonight.
Everyone, end of season NBA is very volatile with late scratches so please pay extra attention to Breaking News today! Stay on your toes!
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I’m your FanDuel coach today!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
Come join the Army and start counting your winnings! Use code: MUTT18 for 20% off!
