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Daily Umpire Impact
While we only have 3 of the umps released for the main slate tonight, we can still get some great information for the slate. The most important decisions on the mound tonight will come from the TOR/CLE game. Both offenses are struggling and the cool temperatures make for some intriguing plays. Fortunately, we have the umpire for this game, and we have a lot of information on him to help us make the right decisions for the slate.
K/9
We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”
Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.
Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.
“Hit Mitts”
There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.
“Box Callers”
On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.
The Squeeze
(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly)
(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)
TOR/CLE Thornton/Bieber
Sam Holbrook 16.32 K/9 6.34 BB/9 .251 AVG 9.17 R/9
CIN/PIT Gray/Musgrove
James Hoye 16.48 K/9 7.45 BB/9 .261 AVG 9.79 R/9
TEX/LAA Lynn/Pena
Larry Vanover 16.61 K/9 7.18 BB/9 .252 AVG 9.27 R/9
Breakdown
TOR/CLE
Sam Holbrook appears to be a neutral umpire when looking at his K/9. On first glance, most would assume there is no boost to Shane Bieber or Trent Thornton. We know more information about Holbrook that can help us determine the real impact. Holbrook is a graduate of the Wendelstedt umpire school, and if you look back we have noted that these guys reward “hit mitts.” This is vital for a guy like Shane Bieber with great control. When he hits his spots away, he will get those calls tonight. Holbrook does have a tight zone up, but Bieber tends to keep the ball down, and this is a definite upgrade for him tonight. Paying up for Bieber is worth it in any build you can fit him in tonight.
Now, let’s look at Thornton who was electric in his first outing striking out eight over five innings against the Tigers. He has a high leg kick that helps hide the ball, and his stuff plays like a power pitcher. However, he relies more on his wicked curveball than he does an overpowering fastball. In his first outing, he was touching 95 but not the 97 mph ceiling he has shown in the minors. He also should see a benefit from Holbrook tonight, especially on his sliders/cutters away. As long as he can hit his spots on his other offspeed offerings, his normal heater and hook should play up tonight. Thornton is very much in play at his modest DK salary. You should pair him with Woodruff when you want to use a high powered offensive build, or even with Bieber if you are comfortable using two arms from this game. The way these offenses are struggling right now, I like taking advantage of Holbrook’s zone with both tonight.
CIN/PIT
James Hoye grades out as neutral in Pittsburgh. He is a consistent ump and is a little tight on the outer edges than we would like our pitchers to have. Still, he doesn’t miss many strikes overall, so the no change or a neutral outcome is one to trust here. Play Gray or Musgrove precisely as you did or didn’t have them and keep the weather as your primary concern here tonight.
TEX/LAA
Larry Vanover has an inconsistent zone that can get tight on the lower half of the zone but wide on the edges. The main takeaway here is that Lance Lynn is tough to trust if he can’t find his command early. Felix Pena doesn’t see any real change in grade. There are better value options with Thornton and Woodruff available on the slate.
Stacks
Since we don’t have the full slate’s worth of umpires, we don’t have a contrarian stack to ID tonight based on umps right now. One stack that intrigues me is the Brewers in Milwaukee against Quintana. We should get the umpire about 20 or 30 minutes before first pitch, and if we get a hitter-friendly ump Quintana is in real danger tonight. I’ll confirm the umpire in news and notes before lock, but Cain/Braun/Yelich and Aguilar are the top stack for me tonight. Right now I will have about 30-40% exposure to them, and if we get the right ump I’ll increase that number closer to 50%.
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