Yesterday, I had a big night on Yahoo where I took down the main $20 tournament for over 4K! I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast, and I’m a new contributor to the DFS Army this season. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.
Daily Umpire Impact
There are many variables we can look at when breaking down an umpire, but there is one statistic that outweighs them all. In this introductory article, we’re going to focus on this statistic, and I’ll explain why it matters and why umpires have so much impact on the games.
K/9
Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.
Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. The best way to identify these umps is by looking at their K/9. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.
“Hit Mitts”
There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.
“Box Callers”
On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing. For today, we will stick with K/9 and identify some good spots and plays. We have the umpires for every game right now except PHI/WAS and MIN/KC.
The Squeeze
(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly)
BAL/TOR Cashner/Stroman
Bill Miller 17.23 K/9
COL/TB Freeland/Snell
Will Little 16.85 K/9
HOU/TEX Verlander/Miller
Jerry Meals 16.33 K/9
BOS/OAK Sale/Fiers
Greg Gibson 16.37 K/9
NYM/MIA Vargas/Urena
Dan Iassogna 17.03 K/9
LAA/SEA Cahill/Gonzales
Jim Reynolds 16.76 K/9
ARI/SD Lauer/Greinke
Bill Welke 16.5 K/9
SF/LAD Bumgarner/Ryu
Alfonso Marquez 15.2 K/9
Breakdown
In the two games that we don’t have umps, we shouldn’t have much to worry about. Scherzer and Berrios miss enough bats that they can neutralize the effects of most hitter-friendly umpires. Keller and Eflin would need to have at least a confirmed neutral umpire until I would consider them in those tough matchups. We do get a nice bump to Stroman or Cashner if you were already considering them today.
MadBum’s in Danger
The main impact today is hands down Alfonso Marquez in LA. We get one of the best hitters umps paired with one of the hottest offenses in baseball. These Dodgers already have some ridiculous stats against MadBum and fading them is the most dangerous thing you can do on the slate. You should at least be over the field with Dodgers tonight, and I am stacking Hernandez/Pollock/Turner in my main lineups. The full five-man stack is also in play if you trust them not to pinch hit for Freese/Barnes/Taylor. I also love the big lefties Bellinger/Peterson/Muncy if they start. A full game stack is also in play, but Ryu is not a guy I like to target in general. The MadBum squeeze will give these Dodgers plenty of chances to lift the ball into the night air. Alfonso Marquez will occasionally give the outer edge, but he is very tight up and down. If Bumgarner has trouble locating that outside fastball on the righties, he will immediately be pushed to the heart of the plate. I’m not playing any Bumgarner tonight, and I suggest the full fade.
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