Had a great night last Tuesday winning the $100 SE Tournament on DraftKings for 5K! I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast, and I’m a new contributor to the DFS Army this season. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.

Daily Umpire Impact

We have a five-game main slate on DK tonight with every umpire released. There are no real weather concerns for tonight.

K/9

We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”

Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.

Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.

“Hit Mitts”

There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.

“Box Callers”

On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.

The Squeeze

(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)

(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)

LAD@MIL Hyun-Jin Ryu (L)/Chase Anderson (R)

James Hoye 16.48 K/9 7.45 BB/9 .245 AVG 8.36 R/9

Hoye has a tight zone and will miss strikes. He’s not the tightest or most inconsistent umpire, but combine both of these factors and the potential for the squeeze is there. I would not touch either arm in Miller Park, but you can make an argument that a crafty lefty isn’t a good matchup for the Brewers. Even without Grandal starting, that lineup can put up a 5 spot at any time. I will have a lot of exposure to the Dodgers lefties and I’m paying up for Joc/Bellinger whenever I can tonight. Anderson is splits-neutral at this point, so the entire lineup is in play. A full game stack is in play as well and I’m considering deploying it as my single entry lineup.

HOU@TEX Gerrit Cole (R)/Adrian Sampson (R)

Mark Wegner 15.74 K/9 7.18 BB/9 .262 AVG 10.6 R/9

So far this year we’ve seen Cole get frustrated when he doesn’t get his calls. Tonight he gets Mark Wegner who is a box-caller. We could see Cole drill his spots on the outside corner and not get the call tonight. If Cole gets frustrated with the squeeze he tends to overthrow in the heart of the plate. Wegner won’t miss many strikes in the zone, so that is one helpful point for Cole tonight. Overall, with the Rangers HH% over 40% this year, I recommend being very careful with Cole. For me, he’s a tournament only option and even there I won’t have much ownership on him.

PHI@COL Aaron Nola (R)/Antonio Senzatela (R)

Eric Cooper 17.60 K/9 6.15 BB/9 .244 AVG 8.36 R/9

Here we have one of the biggest up and down strike zones in baseball. For Nola, who has been throwing his fastball over 40% of the time this year and often up in the zone, this is a great fit. We probably couldn’t handpick a better umpire for Nola in Coors where you need the high strike to survive. Cooper is fair on the edges but doesn’t have an absurd zone on the corners. I am going way over the field on Nola tonight and I will even include him in my single entry lineup. Senzatela is an option if you had to go down that far for SP2.

CIN@SD Luis Castillo (R)/Eric Lauer (L)

Chris Guccione 17.36 K/9 6.76 BB/9 .256 AVG 9.47 R/9

Guccione has a wide zone. This should play well for Lauer who throws over 35% combined cutters and sliders. He faces almost all righties tonight, which isn’t ideal, but if he can backdoor his slider/cutter early he could avoid real trouble tonight. At only 7K on DK or $30 on Yahoo, you could do worse. Castillo’s salary is prohibitive for a guy who could walk 4-5 tonight, but you could chase the strikeouts if you have some leftover salary in certain builds.

SEA@LAA Yusei Kikuchi (L)/Trevor Cahill (R)

Ed Hickox 16.88 K/9 5.98 BB/9 .252 AVG 8.54 R/9

Hickox is a Wendelstedt School umpire. He rewards hit-mitts and this should be a good fit for Kikuchi. Unfortunately, the matchup minimizes the upside because of the Angels low K%. Still, Kikuchi is in play for me tonight and should be my 3rd or 4th highest owned arm.

MLB “Daily Umpire Impact” Advice for DFS DraftKings/FanDuel/Yahoo April 20th