Had a great night last Tuesday winning the $100 SE Tournament on DraftKings for 5K! I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast, and I’m a new contributor to the DFS Army this season. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.

Daily Umpire Impact

We have a seven-game main slate on DK tonight with every umpire released. There are weather concerns in MIN and TEX so make sure to stay updated in Mark’s slack channel.

K/9

We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”

Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.

Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.

“Hit Mitts”

There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.

“Box Callers”

On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.

The Squeeze

(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)

(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)

SF@WAS Jeff Samardzija (R)/Jeremy Hellickson (R)

Jeff Nelson 16.28 K/9 6.03 BB/9 .246 AVG 8.81 R/9

Nelson favors the right side of the plate but has a fair zone overall. He is consistent up and down and should grade out as neutral for both arms tonight. Play this game straight up and don’t let the four SF lefties scare you off of Hellickson who is splits neutral overall.

CHC@MIA Cole Hamels (L)/Sandy Alcantara (R)

Mark Ripperger 16.94 K/9 5.98 BB/9 .249 AVG 8.76 R/9

Unfortunately for Hamels, Ripperger tends to give the away strike to lefties much more than he does to righties. However, his zone isn’t too tight that we can’t use Hamels in this great spot. In a perfect world, this Marlins lineup would have at least 2 lefties, but on a slate that’s not loaded with top end pitching it’s hard to make a case against Hamels with the ballpark and matchup. Don’t be afraid to take a chance on Alfaro as a value catching option either. On the Cubs side, Bryant and Baez are also a top pair and if you can get up to Contreras that should be a low owned 3 man stack with huge upside.

TOR@MIN Trent Thornton (R)/Jake Odorizzi (R)

Bruce Dreckman 16.65 K/9 6.77 BB/9 .244 AVG 9.08 R/9

Dreckman has a fair zone that calls the outside strike but doesn’t give too much up or down. For Thornton, this should be a slight advantage since he tries to elevate his fastball to get the swing and miss but relies on getting the corners when he can’t pinpoint his control with his tight curveball. As long as the weather is clear enough to play without delay I’d have no issue using either Thornton or Odorizzi with Dreckman behind the dish.

ARI@ATL Zack Godley (R)/Kevin Gausman (R)

Jim Reynolds 16.96 K/9 6.84 BB/9 .253 AVG 9.22 R/9

Reynolds is inconsistent. He will give the away strike usually, but he also will miss some strikes up in the zone. Overall, play this game as neutral, especially for Gausman. I have some more concern for Godley if he cannot establish the low strike that he needs early. Be careful using Godley tonight and I’m fading him entirely.

LAA@TEX Matt Harvey (R)/Lance Lynn (R)

Jeremie Rehak 17.37 K/9 5.87 BB/9 .237 AVG 7.28 R/9 (Only 13 Game Sample Size)

Rehak has a very small sample, so we don’t have a full picture of what his zone is like. He has shown some early inconsistency, but overall he has favored the arms and given the edges. I would approach this as neutral, and the weather is the most important concern here tonight and don’t let an unestablished rookie umpire dissuade you from stacking any bats that you like here.

BAL@TB David Hess (R)/Ryne Stanek (R) (Opener)

CB Bucknor 15.73 K/9 6.12 BB/9 .246 AVG 8.76 R/9

Bucknor is one of the most inconsistent umpires. He tends to give the ball off the edges, but he also will miss strikes and squeeze up and down. Overall, I like the Rays stack as one of the top options tonight, but don’t be surprised when we see some bad calls on both ends. This much inconsistency usually plays out in favor of the bats, and I would avoid the arms in this game altogether.

OAK@HOU Wade Miley (L)/Frankie Montas (R)

Lance Barrett 16.89 K/9 5.9 BB/9 .245 AVG 8.86 R/9

Barrett has an inconsistent zone, but he slightly favors the right side of the plate and he will give the away strike. I expect there to be a few missed calls overall and the outcome should be neutral with a slight edge for arms that is tough to take advantage of with these offenses. I would play this game straight up and play the arms and bats exactly as you were planning.

MLB “Daily Umpire Impact” Advice for DFS DraftKings/FanDuel/Yahoo April 17th