Had a great night last Tuesday winning the $100 SE Tournament on DraftKings for 5K! I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast, and I’m a new contributor to the DFS Army this season. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.

Daily Umpire Impact

We have a thirteen game main slate tonight with nine umpires released. Overall, the weather and conditions look good for the slate.

K/9

We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”

Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.

Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.

“Hit Mitts”

There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.

“Box Callers”

On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.

The Squeeze

(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)

(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)

NYM@PHI Steven Matz (L)/Nick Pivetta (R)

John Tumpane 16.26 K/9 7.08 BB/9 .253 AVG 9.39 R/9

Tumpane can be a little tight on the edges, especially when it’s a missed spot. He can expand a little bit up and down. Overall, we should see some missed calls both ways and I expect the outcome to be a wash for Matz and Pivetta.

CHC@MIA Jose Quintana (L)/Pablo Lopez (R)

James Hoye 16.48 K/9 7.45 BB/9 .261 AVG 9.29 R/9

He is a consistent ump and is a little tighter on the outer edges than we would like our pitchers to have. Still, he doesn’t miss many strikes overall, so the no change or a neutral outcome is one to trust here.

TOR@MIN Aaron Sanchez (R)/Kyle Gibson (R)

Paul Emmel 15.77 K/9 6.45 BB/9 .259 AVG 9.31 R/9

Emmel does not give the lower part of the zone. He favors the right side of the plate some, but overall it’s a very tight zone and I will fade both arms from this game. Sanchez is likely in less trouble than Gibson (Cruz is sitting) if you must deploy a sub 8K arm tonight. These Jays are even in play tonight as a value stack, especially Teoscar Hernandez and Rowdy Tellez.

STL@MIL Jack Flaherty (R)/Brandon Woodruff (R)

Marty Foster 16.98 K/9 6.1 BB/9 .246 AVG 8.91 R/9

Marty’s zone gets wide on the left side of the plate, but both of these arms are in danger in Miller Park tonight. One big concern for Woodruff has been Counsell’s reluctance to let starters face the order for a third time this year, placing a lower ceiling on the staff overall. For Flaherty it will just come down to if he can strike out enough guys to offset the longballs some of these Brewers lefties will hit tonight. Expect Yelich to get a free pass every time he’s up unless the game gets out of hand one way or the other. One thing to take into account overall is that both Flaherty and Woodruff are great hitting pitchers. The matchup just doesn’t look good enough to endorse either side regardless of the umpire.

LAA@TEX Jaime Barria (R)/Mike Minor (L)

Carlos Torres 16.75 K/9 6.75 BB/9 .250 AVG 9.60 R/9

Torres has an inconsistent and frustrating zone. He can be tight on most edges except on the strike away that hits a spot. Overall, I expect some missed calls tonight and some chirping from both benches. Play the game straight up for hitters as they will more than likely benefit more than they are hurt by the inconsistency tonight. A full game stack is in play as well.

KC@CWS Jorge Lopez (R)/Reynaldo Lopez (R)

Eric Cooper 17.76 K/9 6.15 BB/9 .245 AVG 8.36 R/9

Eric Cooper extends the zone up and down. This would normally be a nice boost to both arms tonight, but there’s one problem with taking a chance on either: They both just saw the opposing offense in their last starts to poor results. Be careful with this spot.

COL@SD Jon Gray (R)/Nick Margevicius (L)

Chad Whitson 17.46 K/9 6.64 BB/9 .238 AVG 8.56 R/9

Whitson gives the edges and calls more strikes per game than the average ump. He should help Gray some in the lower part of the zone as well. It’s a boost for both arms especially if you were confident in Gray tonight.

CLE@SEA Shane Bieber (R)/Mike Leake (R)

Rob Drake 16.69 K/9 6.50 BB/9 .246 AVG 8.41 R/9

Drake favors the left side of the plate and extends that corner on lefties. He’s a solid ump, play this game with no changes.

CIN@LAD Tyler Mahle (R)/Kenta Maeda (R)

Ed Hickox 16.88 K/9 5.98 BB/9 .252 AVG 8.59 R/9

Hickox extends the zone well below the knees. He’s a great umpire for Maeda’s changeup and slider tonight. There should be a clear benefit and I suggest being above the field owning between 20-30% Maeda tonight.

MLB “Daily Umpire Impact” Advice for DFS DraftKings/FanDuel/Yahoo April 16th