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MLB “Daily Umpire Impact” Advice for DFS DraftKings/FanDuel/Yahoo April 12th

Had a great night on Tuesday winning the $100 SE Tournament on DraftKings for 5K! I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast, and I’m a new contributor to the DFS Army this season.  Click that link to find me on Twitter.  My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.

 

Daily Umpire Impact

 

We have a 12 game main slate tonight with six out of twelve umpires released. There are some weather concerns in New York and Washington.

 

 

K/9

 

We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”

 

Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.

 

Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.

 

“Hit Mitts”

 

There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.

 

“Box Callers”

 

On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.

 

 

The Squeeze 

(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)

(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)

 

 

PIT@WSH Trevor Williams (R)/Patrick Corbin (L)

Scott Barry  16.34 K/9  6.2 BB/9  .254 AVG  9.46  R/9

Barry has an inconsistent zone but he tends to give the away strike. Should be a true neutral outcome with no impact. The weather is the largest concern here tonight.

 

 

 

CWS@NYY Lucas Giolito (R)/J.A. Happ (L)

John Tumpane 16.26 K/9  7.08 BB/9  .253 AVG  9.39 R/9

Tumpane can be a little tight on the edges, especially when it’s a missed spot. He can expand a little bit up and down. Overall, we should see some missed calls both ways and I expect the outcome to be a wash for Happ. If Giolito shows his lack of command early, then we could really see the zone tighten up and he’s in danger of the squeeze. Play this game exactly as you anticipated, and I would steer clear of Giolito, he’s just not worth the risk. If you are high on the Yankees, then a full stack is in play.

 

 

 

TB@TOR Ryne Stanek (R)/Trent Thornton (R)

Nick Mahrley 20.22 K/9  6.72 BB/9  .254 AVG  8.36 R/9 (10 Game Sample Size)

Mahrley is a new umpire in the bigs and we only have a small sample from him last year. He is a guy that rewards hitt mitts and will expand the zone outwards. He’s a good fit for a young arm like Thornton if you are brave enough to use him. Thornton has some slight command issues, so he may not take full advantage of the wide zone, but overall it’s not a bad fit. We just aren’t sure who the Rays will follow the opener with tonight, but Beeks or Chirinos would be in play if you can get some type of confirmation.

 

 

 

NYM@ATL Zack Wheeler (R)/Kyle Wright (R)

David Rackley 16.34 K/9  6.87 BB/9  .261 AVG  9.96 R/9

Rackley has a pretty fair zone that can get a little tight in the upper half. He doesn’t mind giving the corners, especially away to righties. Wheeler might not see any benefits if the Braves don’t chase his four-seamer up in the zone. With Rackley’s Kright in in that mean range of 16.2-16.5 he really should play out as neutral.  If you are bold enough to use Wright or Wheeler then stay there, but there is obviously some risk given the power upside on both sides.

 

 

 

SD@ARI Chris Paddack (R)/Luke Weaver (R)

Rob Drake 16.69 K/9  6.5 BB/9  .246 AVG  8.41 R/9

Drake favors the left side of the plate and extends that corner on lefties. He’s a solid ump for Paddack if you were going to pay up for him. Play this game with no changes.

 

 

 

COL@SF Chad Bettis (R)/Drew Pomeranz (L)

CB Bucknor  15.73 K/9  6.12 BB/9  .246 AVG  8.40  R/9

 

Bucknor is inconsistent at best. Fortunately, in SF we don’t play the arms for their umpires, we play the ballpark. Bucknor has a low K/9, but also a low R/9 and this shows us his inconsistency. Expect some bad misses in the zone and also out. It’s frustrating to watch an ump miss a call then turn around and ring up the next hitter, so I tend to avoid watching my pitchers in these games. Overall, we hope the inconsistency equals a neutral outcome.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Top Stacks

We have the most neutral set of umpires we’ve seen all year. Even the inconsistent ones should grade out as neutral. Overall it’s hard for me to not stack the OAK/TEX game regardless of the unreleased umpire.

 

OAK

 

1) Marcus Semien (R) SS 

2) Mark Canha (R) 1B/OF

3) Matt Chapman (R) 3B 

4) Khris Davis (R) OF 

5) Chad Pinder (R) 2B/OF

6) Stephen Piscotty (R) OF

7) Jurickson Profar (S) 1B/2B 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Top Value Stack

 

TEX

 

1) Shin-Soo Choo (L) OF

2) Rougned Odor (L) 2B

4) Nomar Mazara (L) OF 

5) Joey Gallo (L) OF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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