Had a great night on Tuesday winning the $100 SE Tournament on DraftKings for 5K! I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast, and I’m a new contributor to the DFS Army this season. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.
Daily Umpire Impact
We have a 9 game main slate tonight with a majority of umpires released. Chicago has some weather problems so stay updated in Mark’s channel.
K/9
We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”
Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.
Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.
“Hit Mitts”
There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.
“Box Callers”
On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.
The Squeeze
(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)
(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)
OAK@BAL Frankie Montas (R)/Dan Straily (R)
Chad Whitson 17.46 K/9 6.64 BB/9 .238 AVG 8.56 R/9
Whitson does give the edges, but don’t be concerned with his higher K/9. We have about 60 games in the database for him which is about 2/3 of what we have for other umps. I expect his K/9 to be right around 17 after another 20 or 30 games. He does call slightly more strikes per game than the average ump and should help Montas some in the lower part of the zone. Overall, I don’t expect much impact from him so stack OAK if you are high on their bats.
WAS@PHI Jeremy Hellickson (R)/Nick Pivetta (R)
Stu Scheurwater 16.19 K/9 6.68 BB/9 .252 AVG 8.56 R/9
The Canadian is a pretty fair umpire on all edges. He’s a little tighter than most on the bottom of the zone. He doesn’t miss many strikes and won’t hurt either pitcher, but I don’t expect much help on close 3rd strikes. Overall, this is a solid ump to stack with. The Phillies are in play against Hellickson and they will be one of my highest owned stacks tonight. With Pivetta’s recent velocity spike (sometimes touching 99 mph) I’m not worried about him being hurt by Stu tonight. However, the Nationals are not an offense I like to throw against. I recommend being just over the field at 10% ownership on Pivetta, but under 20% with the matchup.
LAD@STL Kenta Maeda (R)/Jack Flaherty (R)
Chris Conroy 16.37 K/9 6.47 BB/9 .245 AVG 8.7 R/9
Conroy has a low zone and does not give the high strike with any regularity. There are ways Flaherty could work around this if he can get the Dodgers to chase up, but overall this is a downgrade for Flaherty. His 9K price point on DK is tempting with his upside, but the squeeze is a real possibility tonight and I can’t endorse him in the matchup. Maeda is not in play at over 10K and I suggest the full fade with Conroy behind the plate. Consider using Joc and Muncy as top value options at only 4K on DK. They’ll be dangerous tonight if they can lay off Flaherty’s upper third offerings. Joc is a nice value on FD as well at only $3200.
NYY@HOU James Paxton (L)/Collin McHugh (R)
Alfonso Marquez 15.2 K/9 7.08 BB/9 .260 AVG 9.37 R/9
The squeeze is on tonight and I expect some juice in Houston. McHugh has projections for over 9 K’s tonight and I see that as at least three K’s over reality. Marquez will give the edges sometimes, but he is very tight up and down. I almost never use arms with Marquez, but Paxton’s swing and miss ability could limit the damage, so if you had to pick an arm from this game I’d use him over McHugh. Still, I won’t have exposure to either tonight and stacking the Yankees at under 10% ownership is one of my favorite plays overall tonight. $4400 Judge is almost a lock for me tonight and he will be in at least 60% of my lineups. Complete your OF with Springer and Brantley on the other side and you have massive upside for only 12K collective salary on DraftKings. A full game stack is in play with Marquez tonight. Get some of that juice from the squeeze and have at least 15% ownership of both offenses.
SEA@KC Yusei Kikuchi (L)/Heath Fillmyer (R)
Ramon DeJesus 16.56 K/9 6.41 BB/9 .267 AVG 10.07 R/9
From what we’ve seen Kikuchi is comfortable working with fair and tight zones and I expect a solid outing from him tonight regardless. He is in play for me tonight at only 8K on DK. I won’t throw anyone against this red hot M’s offense right now.
MIL@LAA Brandon Woodruff (R)/Felix Pena (R)
Phil Cuzzi 16.36 K/9 6.65 BB/9 .255 AVG 8.82
Cuzzi is really one of the most inconsistent umpires we will see. He usually tends to favor pitchers with calling some strikes 4 to 6 inches off the plate. On the other side, he will miss some obvious strikes usually up in the zone. He’s really a frustrating umpire to watch, so don’t be surprised to see some chirping from either bench tonight. I am hesitant to use full stacks when we get an ump like Cuzzi because it always seems like at least one of your 4 or 5 man players will end up with some ridiculous calls and end up with a zero. Try and stick to 2-3 man stacks from either side, but it’s hard to tell you not to play four Brewers lefties against Pena. If Trout is out tonight Woodruff is a nice option regardless. Cuzzi could help him if he lets the zone continue to creep outwards during his outing.
Top Stacks
The A’s, Phillies, and Mariners will rightfully be the highest owned teams tonight. One great way to fit some of the top bats is to use the value from the Yankees/Astros game or the Dodgers against Flaherty. The Yankees/Houston game stack is also a top contrarian play that could outpace the other games. Finally, using some Brewers in the late game is the best way to climb those boards.
NYY
1) Brett Gardner (L) OF
2) Aaron Judge (R) OF
3) Luke Voit (R) 1B
4) Gleyber Torres (R) 2B/SS
5) Greg Bird (L) 1B
6) DJ LeMahieu (R) 2B/3B
7) Clint Frazier (R) OF
HOU
1) George Springer (R) OF
2) Jose Altuve (R) 2B
3) Michael Brantley (L) OF
4) Carlos Correa (R) SS
6) Tyler White (R) 1B/3B
Top Value Stack
LAD
1) Joc Pederson (L) OF
2) Corey Seager (L) SS
3) Cody Bellinger (L) 1B
5) Max Muncy (L) 1B/3B
6) Alex Verdugo (L) OF
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