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MLB “Daily Umpire Impact” Advice for DFS DraftKings/FanDuel/Yahoo April 9th

Last Monday night on Yahoo I took down the main $20 tournament for over 4K! I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast, and I’m a new contributor to the DFS Army this season.  Click that link to find me on Twitter.  My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.

 

Daily Umpire Impact

 

We have a 10 game main slate tonight with good weather and 8 umpires released. The two games without umps are MIN/NYM and TEX/ARI.

 

 

K/9

 

We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”

 

Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.

 

Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.

 

“Hit Mitts”

 

There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.

 

“Box Callers”

 

On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.

 

 

The Squeeze 

(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly)

(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)

 

 

OAK@BAL Brett Anderson (L)/John Means (L)

Chad Fairchild  16.55 K/9  6.83 BB/9  .253 AVG  9.2  R/9

Fairchild is a little inconsistent but usually will give the outer edges. He doesn’t miss too many strikes. He should match his neutral grade today. No impact.

 

 

 

WAS@PHI Stephen Strasburg (R)/Aaron Nola (R)

Alan Porter 16.50 K/9  7.1 BB/9  .258 AVG  8.89 R/9

On first glance, we see Porter has a neutral K/9. However, that’s mostly due to his fair zone on the edges. He does expand up and down which should benefit Strasburg who has relied more on his sinker this year. His changeup should also see a benefit. Porter is a solid ump for Nola as well, who should see an advantage when he hits his spot on bottom of the zone hooks. Overall, the benefit should be a little stronger for Strasburg, but both are in play. One concern for Strasburg is that the top end velocity on his four-seamer is down, so I wouldn’t go over 20% ownership on him or Nola given the matchups. Still, either could turn out a great performance if they can establish the low strike early.

 

 

 

LAD@STL Ross Stripling (R)/Dakota Hudson (R)

Doug Eddings 17.22 K/9  5.31 BB/9  .250 AVG  8.7 R/9

Eddings has a large zone giving both the high and low strikes plus he goes wide on the left side of the plate. This should benefit Stripling’s changeup that he always works on the left side. Unfortunately, Stripling’s velocity is also down. If you were on Stripling before, then stay there. With any other matchup, I would recommend Hudson with Eddings. His sinker is just in too much danger from these long left-handed swings tonight. He could still have a decent outing if he can work through at least two Dodger bombs tonight, but I don’t see any scenario where he keeps them in the yard. As far as the Dodgers go I would stack them in spite of having a pitcher-friendly ump, it shouldn’t matter when Hudson won’t miss enough bats tonight.

 

 

 

NYY@HOU Jonathan Loaisiga (R)/Gerrit Cole (R)

Larry Vanover  16.60 K/9  7.18 BB/9  .252 AVG  9.27 R/9

Vanover calls the away strike to both sides of the plate and should grade out as a true neutral ump tonight. Deploy both arms at the same % you were anticipating.

 

 

 

SEA@KC Marco Gonzales (L)/Jake Junis (R)

Gary Cederstrom  16.91 K/9 6.49 BB/9  .253 AVG  9.13 R/9

Cederstrom is a Wendelstedt School umpire so we know he will reward “hitt mitts”, especially on the outer edges. This should be a benefit to Marco Gonzales and his control. His low salary is worth taking advantage of on DK as SP2, but there are higher upside options on FD. Junis won’t see a downgrade, but I can’t endorse him against an offense running as hot as Seattle right now.

 

 

 

ATL@COL Max Fried (L)/German Marquez (R)

Marty Foster  16.98 K/9 6.1 BB/9  .246 AVG  8.91 R/9

Marty favors the left side of the plate, but it may not help Fried much. He tends to bury his big curveball to righties, instead of attacking them right under their hands. Still, he’s not a bad ump for Fried if you were already brave enough to deploy him in Coors against a lineup almost full of righties. Marquez works on the right side of the plate with his slider and I won’t use him at all if we see four or more lefties on the Braves.

 

 

 

SD@SF Joey Lucchesi (L)/Derek Holland (L)

Pat Hoberg  16.33  K/9  7.03 BB/9  .256 AVG  9 R/9

Hoberg is consistent and fair on the edges. There’s no impact from him on either side. Weigh the ballpark and other factors heavier here tonight.

 

 

 

MIL@LAA Freddy Peralta (R)/Matt Harvey (R)

Tom Hallion 16.36 K/9  6.65 BB/9  .255 AVG  8.82

Hallion in inconsistent and not a good fit for Matt Harvey tonight. He will give some edges, but overall he misses strikes and I can’t endorse Harvey against the powerful Brewers. Peralta’s game is based on getting swing and miss strikes, so Hallion shouldn’t be a problem for him if you were going there.

 

 

 

 

 

Top Stacks

 

Overall, I would lean heavily on the left-handed Dodgers in spite of the umpire. A sinker-baller like Hudson is in real danger tonight. The best candidate for the squeeze is Matt Harvey and I will steer clear of him facing the Brewers.

 

LAD (Projected Lineup) 

1) Joc Pederson (L) OF

2) Corey Seager (L) SS

3) Cody Bellinger (L) 1B

6) Max Muncy (L) 1B/3B

 

MIL (Projected Lineup)

1) Lorenzo Cain (R) OF

2) Christian Yelich (L) OF

3) Ryan Braun (R) OF

4) Travis Shaw (L) 1B/3B

7) Mike Moustakas (L) 2B/3B

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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