Monday night on Yahoo I took down the main $20 tournament for over 4K! I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast, and I’m a new contributor to the DFS Army this season. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.
Daily Umpire Impact
We have a nice three-game slate for the afternoon today. The 8K Rally Cap (35 EM) is a great tournament to play. We could possibly see some showers in San Francisco, but it’s unlikely they will impact the game. The weather is beautiful in Los Angeles with the wind blowing out to right.
K/9
We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”
Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.
Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.
“Hit Mitts”
There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.
“Box Callers”
On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.
The Squeeze
(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly)
(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)
TOR/CLE Thomas Pannone (L)/Carlos Carrasco (R)
Dan Iassogna 17.03 K/9 6.7 BB/9 .245 AVG 9.51 R/9
TB/SF Ryne Stanek (R) Opener & Yonny Chirinos (R) Long Relief/Jeff Samardzija (R)
Greg Gibson 16.37 K/9 6.5 BB/9 .251 AVG 9.10 R/9
TEX/LAA Drew Smyly (L)/Tyler Skaggs (L)
Alfonso Marquez 15.2 K/9 7.08 BB/9 .260 AVG 9.35 R/9
Breakdown
TOR/CLE
Here we have an example of a really clean slate for umpires. We have the most pitcher-friendly paired with the top arm in Carrasco. Iassonga has a wide zone, especially to left-handers, and Carrasco gets to face four of them today. He is chalk you should eat in at least 60% of your lineups if not more. The matchup is not as much of a benefit to Pannone who only faces one lefty, but he still has the best ump on the slate. If you’re not scared of using two arms from the same game, then they are a decent pair. I will own the combination in about 20% of my lineups.
CIN/PIT
Greg Gibson is a consistent ump that slightly favors the left side of the plate. He grades out as a true neutral guy who gives the corners, but is fair up and down. That good news for both sides if you were considering taking advantage of the ballpark and using Samardjiza or Chirinos. All the bats you were considering are still in play, especially the cheap Rays that help you pay up for Carrasco and Rangers/Angels bats.
TEX/LAA
When I mentioned it was a clean umpire slate earlier I wasn’t just talking about on the mound. We have the best weather and offensive matchups paired with one of the top hitter’s umps in Alfonso Marquez. He really squeezed Bumgarner the other night in LA and I expect nothing less from him today. Marquez will occasionally give the corners, but he is very tight up and down. Load up on this game offensively with stacks of both offenses. Full game stacks are very much in play and should be relatively low owned on this three-game slate. I will not have any ownership of either arm. Smyly looked decent in Spring Training, but he is not overpowering and is in real danger with the squeeze in full effect this afternoon.
Stacks
TEX
1) Delino DeShields (R) OF $3.7K
2) Shin-Soo Choo (L) OF $3.7K
3) Elvis Andrus (R) SS $4.1K
4) Hunter Pence (R) OF $3.5K
5) Nomar Mazara (L) OF $3.8K
6) Rougned Odor (L) 2B $4.2K
LAA
1) David Fletcher (R) 3B/SS $3.4K
2) Mike Trout (R) OF $5.5K
3) Andrelton Simmons (R) SS $4.0K
4) Albert Pujols (R) 1B $3.6K
5) Jonathan Lucroy (R) C $3.4K
6) Kole Calhoun (L) OF $3.9K
Top Value Stack-TB
3) Ji-Man Choi (L) 1B $3.7K
4) Brandon Lowe (L) 2B $3.9K
5) Yandy Diaz (R) 1B/3B $3.3K
6) Kevin Kiermaier (L) OF $3.9K
7) Daniel Robertson (R) 2B/3B $3.6K
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