It’s Masters’ week and if you want to load up on studs in your Milly Maker lineup you need to find some bargain values to afford them!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year for DFS golf with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Tuesday Nights, and our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need!
It’s Masters’ Week! I feel like a little kid on Christmas. Amen Corner, Magnolia Lane, Hogan’s Bridge, Pimento Cheese Sandwiches, Rae’s Creek, does it really get any better than Augusta National? Not for me. This is without a doubt my favorite event on the PGA Tour every year. We have you covered this year with everything you need to know about Augusta National, the Field, the Weather, and anything else you can possibly want! We also have a VIP Swag contest with added prizes for our VIPs, but you need to subscribe to get into that!
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With the Draftkings Milly Maker and Fanduel Mega Eagle on the horizon you likely are already building lineups and noticing that while the pricing is fairly soft, you still need to find some value plays to let you afford the studs you want in your lineup. Have no fear, I’m here to help you identify the best bargains that can help you find a big win on Sunday. While there are tons of cheap options, and some that will be fairly popular, its likely to be the diamond in the rough that sneaks out a top ten finish to get you climbing the leaderboard on Sunday. I call these players Five Finger Discounts because they are a steal at their price and ownership!
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What’s a Five Finger Discount?
If you’re not familiar with the term “Five Finger Discount” it essentially means to steal something. Using your “Five Fingers” to get a “discount” on something. In DFS Golf I consider “Five Finger Discount” players to be guys that are cheap and low owned, or ‘discounted’. Obviously just being cheap and low owned isn’t enough, they need to provide some value too!
There are a couple of rules that I use for my Five Finger Discount Players:
- The player must come in under $7300 on Draftkings. This is what I would consider a ‘bargain’ price, especially during a major with soft pricing
- The player must come in under 8% owned. There will be lots of players down here like Kevin Kisner and Charley Hoffman who will be very popular (15% or more in ownership), those are easy guys to identify, I want to help you find that low owned play that really gives you leverage on the field.
And that’s it, typically I also like to look for players that have winning upside, but in a major, especially one with a high 6/6 percentage I don’t think you necessarily need that. First and foremost they have to make the cut, anything after that is gravy for the most part, but they do need some upside if you want to take down a GPP.
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Five Finger Discount Players:
Note: All of these players are for GPP only. Five Finger Discounts are not SAFE by any means, just like the real thing.
Branden Grace: DK $7100/FD $9200
Projected Ownership: 5%-7%
Grace has had a bit of a struggle to start the season, despite a 2nd place finish to Rickie Fowler at the Waste Management Open, he’s missed 3 cuts and hasn’t finished higher than 28th at a stroke play event. So why play him here?
Grace is a big-time player. He just shows up at majors. He averages about .6 strokes gained more at majors than a regular event. In the last four year’s he’s participated in all four majors. In that time he has five top 6’s, five top 30’s, and only four missed cuts. That’s a pretty incredible streak. Consider that in that same time period Rory McIlroy has the same amount of missed cuts, and one less top 6.
He struggled in his first few trips around Augusta, missing three cuts and making one, but has since found a bit of a pulse here with two top thirty finishes. He also played excellently at the WGC-Match Play, outdueling Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama in his group stage before losing out to Sergio Garcia in the round of 16. That surely should give him some confidence heading into this event.
The other little gem that sticks out for me with Grace is that 2nd place finish at the Waste Management, particularly the 69 he shot in the final round. If you remember that round, it was likely the debacle for Rickie Fowler on the 11th hole that almost cost him the tournament. What you should remember though is how awful the weather was. Rainy, windy, and downright miserable. Grace shot one of the better rounds of the day with a 69 while the locks of Rickie and Justin Thomas struggled with over-par rounds. With this Augusta shaping up to be a windy, rainy mess on Friday and Sunday, I can’t think of a better guy to roster than Branden Grace who seems to thrive in those situations.
Check out my Preview Article for the Masters here —> UpNorth’s Masters’ Preview
Matthew Fitzpatrick: DK $7300/FD $9300
Projected Ownership: 6%-8%
Another player who is an exceptional player, particularly in big events like Majors, is coming in with solid form and should have no problem playing in volatile conditions like we are expecting this week. Fitzy is a bit of an enigma for me in DFS Golf. I think he has all the potential to be a top 20 player in the world for the next 10 years but he hasn’t quite reached that level yet or carried that level for an extended period of time. He’s looked like a world beater multiple times throughout his career but can never quite reach that level of consistency needed to rise in the OWGR.
Fitz has a very solid history at Augusta National, making the cut in all four tries, something he’s also done in his four trips to US Opens, including last year where he finished T12 after having to go through local qualifying in England. He also has a sterling record in World Golf Championship events, playing against the best of the best.
Fitzpatrick is playing some of arguably the best golf of his career and returns to a course that he has a 7th place finish at merely three years ago. He’s really found some consistency with his putting stroke recently and if that gets hot, I think he has no problem finding his way to the weekend given his solid ball-striking and driving of the golf ball.
Key Stats to look for this week – SG – Approach, Birdies Gained, Par 5 Scoring Par 4 Scoring, Long Par 3 Scoring, SG: Around the Green Course History, and Projected Course Score.
You can find all of these key stats in our DFS Army research station accessible ONLY for our VIPs usually, but this week it is FREE and OPEN to the public!
Jimmy Walker: DK $6600/FD $8300
Projected Ownership: 1%-3%
This isn’t a sexy pick, and it doesn’t feel great, to be honest, but I really can’t deny the absolute excellent course history that Jimmy Walker has at this event. That combined with the fact that we can get him so cheap and at essentially zero ownership makes Jimmy a very intriguing option for me this week.
Jimmy has never missed the cut at Augusta and is a player that typically plays well at tracks he’s familiar with. He has finishes of 20th, 18th, 29th, 38th, and 8th here in his four attempts. During that time he was also dealing with Lyme’s disease and playing some pretty poor golf, yet he showed up and played well here. He had signs of life last week at the Valero where he finished 30th and scored well all week.
Jimmy has never been an accurate driver of the golf ball and that has hurt him at a lot of venues, but that is negated here with Augusta’s wide fairways and less than penal rough. He can let the driver buck, go find his ball and go to work here. I like Jimmy as a cheap, low owned GPP dart that can put you over the top if he has a great week!
Keith Mitchell: DK $6800/FD $8500
Projected Ownership: 6%-8%
Keith is a player that might end up getting a bit more buzz as the week progresses here and go over that 8% threshold, but he’s a guy I have a ton of interest in as his game ‘should’ fit here extremely well. I typically don’t play too many guys making their debut at Augusta unless they are just outstanding talents as I believe that you need a few trips around this place to really get the hang of it, but I’ll make an exception for Mitchell, as he appears to be such a good course fit according to our Research Station.
If we look here we can see that in the real key areas of Par 4’s and Par 5’s, Keith crushes. He’s ranked 10th in the field in fantasy points on long par 4’s, and 8th on long par 5’s. we know at the Masters you have to make hay on the par 5’s and Keith should have no problem doing that. He’s also a solid, medium par 4 and short par 5 scorer given his price, and an excellent short par 4 player as well.
This really just sets up as a perfect course for Keith. He bombs it off the tee, has a solid approach game, and just needs to get hot with the putter. Over his last ten rounds, he has seemed to figure something out with the putter as well as he gaining strokes for the first time in a LONG time. The move to bentgrass may be difficult for him and that’s the one thing holding me back from going all in on Killa Keith here. Still, I love him as a GPP dart this week and think he has a real shot at a top 20 finish.
Fred Couples: DK $6200/FD $7800
Projected Ownership: 1%-3%
Here’s the list of golfers with six top 20 finishes here since 2010: Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott, and… Fred Couples.
Freddy Boom Boom just gets it around here! He still plays fairly often on the Champions Tour (He’s 1oth on the Money List this year) so it’s not like he’s just showing up here and playing for the first time all year like some of the other past champions. Freddy still has a ton of game and unlike some of his other compatriots who are 59 years old, he still gets it out there at 285 yards off the tee. This course hasn’t gotten too long for him yet and that’s obvious given his results here over the years.
He was 38th here last year along with fellow old-timer Bernhard Langer (who is absolutely also in play), and at this price, all he needs to do is make the cut and you’re golden. Fire up some Boom Boom in gpp and watch him compete with the young bombers all week.
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It’s here, the Masters!! I always caution to be smart about your bankroll, but with a Major, especially the Masters, let it slide a little bit and let’s have some fun! There are tons of great contests with really solid payout structures. You don’t have to play the Milly Maker! The only lineups I’ll have in there are from contest tickets I won. There are MUCH better contests elsewhere if you want to have a positive ROI.
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Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!