Finally back to a regular tour event at Quail Hollow for the Wells Fargo Championship!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year for DFS golf with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Tuesday Nights, and our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need!
After the weird team event, the Zurich Classic, and a crazy Euro event the Trophee Hassan II which saw ultimate carnage on all four days, we finally get back to normal tour event with the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow. This won’t last long though because, with the new schedule, the PGA Championship is in TWO weeks! It’s a great time to sign up for all our tools here at DFS Army and get used to using them prior to the big contests for the PGA Championship!
Quail Hollow is the site of Justin Thomas’ PGA championship victory, but the course will play much different in the spring than it did during that magical run two Augusts ago. As we saw last year there are a few different ways to get around this course whether it be with your driver, your irons, or most importantly your putter.
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Last week I posted a video breakdown of how I build GPP lineups here DFS Golf GPP Lineup Building Strategies, Check it out for some great insight into how I go about building lineups for MME! These next two weeks are great weeks to practice this strategy prior to the PGA Championship!
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This is always a fun week as we get a tree-lined course that has hosted major championships in the past and a major-esque field with lots of the big names teeing it up in preparation for Bethpage Black and the PGA Championship.
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Course Breakdown:
Located in Charlotte, North Carolina, Quail Hollow has hosted the Wells Fargo Championship (previously the Wachovia Championship) every year since 2003, besides 2017 when it hosted the PGA Championship. it’s also the home of the 2021 President’s Cup (with captain Phil Mickelson likely leading the way).
This Par 71 was originally designed by George Cobb, but is really a Tom Fazio classic has he has overseen redesigns in 1997, 2003, and 2016.
At 7,554 yards, Quail Hollow is a real challenge for the shorter hitters on tour, but those who can hit long irons into firm greens can find success here. Peter Malnati who is 145th in Driving Distance this season (288 off the tee) was the 36 hole leader here last year proving there are other ways to do it here than just bomb it and go find it. (he collapsed on the weekend so maybe that’s not a good analogy).
The tree-lined fairways here really force players hands in terms of routing, and while you can just bomb it and go find it, it absolutely has to be in between the tree lines to make sure you have a shot at the green. The rough, while extremely penal in August for the PGA Championship two years ago, is overseeded with Rye at this point which can actually give you flyers, but for all intents and purposes make the rough much easier to play out of.
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The Bermuda greens are overseeded with poa and while last year I assumed we would see the Bermuda a bit dormant and not as firm, the Bermuda was out in full force and the greens played very firm. What this means is that a lot of the players’ shots into the greens took a big first bounce. Players who accounted for that were successful. Bermuda putters also showed up big time here last spring with excellent Bermuda putters Jason Day, Nick Watney, and Aaron Wise all topping the leaderboard.
I typically hate to target putting (it’s so variant), but I really think that Bermuda Greens are an angle in this week.
With three of the par 3’s playing over 200 yards, and one playing almost 250 yards, long iron play will be huge here.
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Key Stats:
Key Stats to look for this week – Birdies Gained, Par 5 Scoring, Long Par 3 Scoring, SG: Off the Tee, Driving Distance, Course History, SG: Putting Bermuda, and Projected Course Score. SG Approach is always in play, but it’s actually a stat I’m putting less weight on this week.
You can find all of these key stats in our DFS Army research station accessible ONLY for our VIPs.
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The Field:
In this section, I’ll cover who is in the field this week, the odds, any pricing discrepancies, and a few of my favorite plays on first look!
With the PGA championship two weeks away we get a really strong field for this event. Typically, this event is well attended regardless, but with a major on the horizon, some of the worlds best will be teeing it up in Charlotte this week in preparation.
Rory McIlroy leads the way here and it’s not surprising given that he won here in 2015 and finished top ten twice in three other appearances over the last five years. A 16th place finish here last year was largely due to his struggles with his putter. He actually switched putters mid-tournament last year.
Jason Day is the defending champion after a marvelous performance with his putter last year, (the rest of his game was just meh) while Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler both have strong histories here. The player I’m really interested in though is Phil Mickelson.
Mickelson leads the field here in Strokes Gained over the last 4 trips to this venue. He’s finished in the top 11 in each of those tournaments with 3 top 5 finishes. Phil just dominates this course. He’s a much stronger bermuda putter than given credit for and the rough being a bit less penal benefits his ‘wayward’ style off the tee. He showed signs of life at the Masters after a really brutal month stretch where he missed three cuts in a row. That means that we get him at a discounted price in betting and DFS. The only way I’m going to be off Phil this week is if he somehow becomes the chalk.
This is a home game for Webb Simpson but he’s never been as consistent as one would expect. A 2nd place finish in 2015 to Rory McIlroy was followed by back to back missed cuts.
Deeper down the board Chesson Hadley has played well here over the years but his current form is pretty poor. Another course horse is Robert Streb who finished 42nd here last year and hasn’t missed a cut here in five years. He had missed 13 cuts in a row coming into this event…something about Quail Hollow for Streb!
This week lends itself to a stars and scrubs build meaning that hammering the low 9K range of Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, and Tony Finau on Draftkings may be low owned and prosperous. A build I’m seriously looking at.
Beat the Bookie Betting Card:
Something new I’m adding each week to this article is my personal betting card for the week for Outrights, First Round Leaders, Top 5’s and Top 10’s. The real bread and butter with golf betting is a tournament and round matchups but I’m saving those for our Beat the Bookie VIPs!
As a rule, I typically don’t bet many outrights under +3500 unless its an extremely weak field (DJ at the FedEx St. Jude last year comes to mind) It’s just not a +EV most weeks when you think about 156 guys teeing it up. Hitting 3-4 outrights a year is a fantastic year for most golf bettors. The return on investment of hitting an outright at 50-1 can pay for a long dry spell (which is fairly typical in golf betting if you are only playing Outrights, FRLs, and T5/T10).
I just can’t deny Phil’s calves and their history here. The guy just absolutely crushes it here. If there’s one thing about Phil it’s that he consistently shows up at certain events and competes. The Masters’, Pebble Beach, Genesis Open. He has certain courses he just feels comfortable at and this is one of them. These are probably the lowest odds we’ll see for him in a while with Bethpage Black coming up in two weeks where he’s dominated in the past and the US Open being held at Pebble Beach (maybe his best chance to complete the slam?) and I want to jump on him here before they drop.
Similarly, Henrik Stenson is a player that is really trending in the right direction and while a missed cut here last year concerns me a bit, he does have a 4th place finish here in 2014 and was T13 at the PGA Championship held here. I typically never have two guys under 35-1 but both feel like value this week at those prices and should be in the mix.
A couple of longer bombs in Keith Mitchell at 80-1 and Daniel Berger at 90-1. Mitchell, I have the utmost confidence in as he pops in my model and has been a much-improved putter as of late. An MC at RBC Heritage notwithstanding he’s been great this year and this should be a picture-perfect course for him. Berger is a bit more of a punt in that his form hasn’t been what it once was but he’s made four straight cuts here and has started to get his game back in order. He’s typically a guy who we would see at 50-1 so we’re getting about 40 points of value here.
Finally, a deeper bomb on Chesson Hadley who has crushed this course over the years with finishes of T16, T11, T20, and an MC in his last four trips to this course. His current form leaves quite a bit to be desired but Bermuda is his preferred surface. The firm surfaces concern me a bit with Chesson as his Around the Green game is poor if he misses GIR, but at 140-1 we’re getting quite a bit of value.
I’ll have Head to Head and full tournament matchups posted for our Beat the Bookie VIPs on Wednesday. And there are some reaaaaly juicy ones this week! These are truly where you can make your money in golf betting, while not as sexy or as big as an outright win, they are much more profitable.
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Final Thoughts:
Time to get back on track after a few rough weeks. Be smart with your bankroll this week and start trying to build for the PGA championship. Milly Maker satellites are popping up and a great way to build up for the upcoming major.
We will have content for you all through the week at DFS Army. Our research station and domination station optimizer will be updated on Tuesday and I will have my full Chalk Donkey article breaking down all the ownership and GPP strategy for our VIP’s on Wednesday afternoon! If you aren’t a VIP yet, use code UPNORTH for 20% your first month!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!