Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter talking hockey and football, even a little WNBA. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.
NHL DFS At A Glance
The first thing I do when starting my research is to look for strong teams facing weak defenses. I want the best odds I can find to score goals. I like the old Corsi number, as it denotes any shot attempt directed towards the net. It doesn’t matter if this shot attempt goes wide, gets blocked, or finds the back of the twine. You can’t score if you don’t shoot. I also love the “High Danger” metrics. These shots come from the slot (between the dots) and off quick passes or rebounds. They are what they say they are, and teams allowing a lot of high danger chances also tend to give up goals in bunches….perfect for the DFS player to attack.
If you have questions regarding these numbers or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums. Simply tag me (same name as my twitter name) and let’s get on the same page. First and foremost, I’m here to teach people wanting to learn the DFS side of this glorious frozen sport.
Boston Bruins @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Odds: TOR -120, 6.0 o/u
Boston Bruins: Jake DeBrusk has 10 shots on goal through 3 games and is on PP1, he hasn’t been uber chalk yet so I like him in both GPPs and Cash. For line stacks, BOS1 always has a high ceiling, they are a cash lock tonight.
5 star plays – Bergeron, Pastrnak, Marchand
4 star plays – DeBrusk
Cash viable – Bergeron, Pastrnak, Marchand, DeBrusk
GPP Sleeper – Danton Heinen
Toronto Maple Leafs: Once again I am not looking outside of the top 6 here. Matthews line is better for value, Tavares line better for leverage/GPPs. Johnsson remains on PP1 look to him if you are looking for minimal exposure to the Leafs.
5 star plays – Matthews, Tavares
4 star plays – Reilly, Johnsson, Kapanen, Marner
Cash viable – Matthews, Kapanen, Johnsson, Reilly
GPP Sleeper – none
Nashville Predators @ Dallas Stars
Odds: DAL -125, 5.0 o/u
Nashville Predators: Viktor Arvidsson is the only forward here to get excited about as he has 15 shot attempts and 9 SOG the through the series. Outside of him, this series has been low scoring, unless I am MME I do not desire exposure to the Preds.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Arvidsson
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Ekholm
Dallas Stars: Seguin and Radulov have been creating chances in mass quantity, outside of them Dallas isn’t doing very much. They are a very good GPP tonight as most players will be looking to Toronto, Boston, and Colorado to spend their salary one.
5 star plays – Seguin, Radulov
4 star plays – Heiskanen
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Calgary Flames @ Colorado Avalanche
Odds: COL -105, 6.0 o/u
Calgary Flames: That shoutout in game 1 feels like a long time ago, with better plays to spend up on tonight I wouldn’t look to Calgary other than for value. Backlund and Frolik stand out the most there.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Tkachuk, Giordano
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Backlund, Frolik, Tkachuk
Colorado Avalanche: MacKinnon, Landeskog, and Barrie have combined for 53 shot attempts through the first 3 games, most out of any 3 players on a team. I love them in cash and GPP tonight. Erik Johnson has 15 shot attempts and 10 shots on goal through the series so far, he is my favorite GPP sleeper of the night.
5 star plays – MacKinnon, Barrie, Landeskog
4 star plays – Johnson, Rantanen
Cash viable – MacKinnon, Barrie, Landeskog
GPP Sleeper – Erik Johnson
Quick Read: NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First
DFS NHL Goalies for Today:
Philipp Grubauer (BOTH): Allowing only 2 goals on 70 shots, Grubauer is boasting a .971 save percentage in the playoffs, good for best in the league. Colorado is slightly favored tonight as well, making you able to feel even better about this play.
Ben Bishop (GPP): This game has a 5.0 implied total good for lowest on the slate, making it a prime spot to target a goalie. Neither goalie in this series has been stellar but someone has to get the W tonight. I like Bishop over Rinne as Dallas is at home and Nashville doesn’t have a line like Seguin-Radulov ready to blow up at any time.