Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter talking hockey and football, even a little WNBA. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.
NHL DFS At A Glance
The first thing I do when starting my research is to look for strong teams facing weak defenses. I want the best odds I can find to score goals. I like the old Corsi number, as it denotes any shot attempt directed towards the net. It doesn’t matter if this shot attempt goes wide, gets blocked, or finds the back of the twine. You can’t score if you don’t shoot. I also love the “High Danger” metrics. These shots come from the slot (between the dots) and off quick passes or rebounds. They are what they say they are, and teams allowing a lot of high danger chances also tend to give up goals in bunches….perfect for the DFS player to attack.
If you have questions regarding these numbers or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums. Simply tag me (same name as my twitter name) and let’s get on the same page. First and foremost, I’m here to teach people wanting to learn the DFS side of this glorious frozen sport.
Carolina Hurricanes @ Washington Capitals
Odds: WAS -160, 5.5 o/u
Carolina Hurricanes: If the Hurricanes can limit the penalties and not leave Ovechkin wide open when they do draw them, this is very much still a series. Washington only had 18 shots on goal and blocked almost double the number of shots than Carolina at 17 to 9, so the Hurricanes clearly gave Washington some work. The value of CAR1 makes it hard to look away from them, Niederreiter-Aho-Faulk stack is where I would go.
5 star plays – Niederreiter, Aho
4 star plays – Slavin, Teravainen, Faulk,
Cash viable – Niederreiter
GPP Sleeper – Svechnikov-Hamilton-Slavin PP2 stack
Washington Capitals: To expect Washington to have under 20 shots again is just foolish, while I like Carolina, I also like Washington, the total of this game is just too low. Backstrom, Ovechkin, Wilson stand out once again, them with Carlson makes for a great 4 man stack. For GPPs a pivot down to WAS2 stands to give you leverage and save salary, but WAS1 is viable in all formats.
5 star plays – Ovechkin, Backstrom
4 star plays – Carlson, Hagelin, Kuznetsov, Oshie
Cash viable – Hagelin, Ovechkin, Wilson, Backstrom
GPP Sleeper – Vrana
Dallas Stars @ Nashville Predators
Odds: NSH -155, 5.0 o/u
Dallas Stars: I am looking to Seguin and Radulov again as I respect the total set for this game, so I am not looking outside of the studs here. Heiskanen just scored 2 goals and has been averaging over 2 shots a game over his last 10, at only $4200 on DK, he looks like a stud to me tonight.
5 star plays – Seguin, Radulov
4 star plays – Heiskanen, Klingberg
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Nashville Predators: With Bishop in great form and Dallas playing sound hockey, it is hard to love Nashville tonight. Outside of Josi and Subban, I want nothing here.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Josi, Subban
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Boston Bruins
Odds: BOS -145, 5.5 o/u
Toronto Maple Leafs: To what became a surprise to far too many, the Maple Leafs took a 1-0 lead in this series. The whole top 6 looks to be in play again, Tavares and Marner are coming off a hot game but with the value that comes with TOR2 you should be able to get TOR1 at low(er) ownership tonight.
5 star plays – Tavares, Marner
4 star plays – Matthews, Muzzin, Reilly, Kapanen
Cash viable – Matthews, Kapanen, Reilly
GPP Sleeper – Kadri, Nylander
Boston Bruins: DeBrusk looks to be in danger of missing this one which would be a decent hit to Boston’s top 6. This team lives and dies by its first line and that is as far as I like to look when rostering them tonight.
5 star plays – Bergeron, Pastrnak
4 star plays – Marchand, Krug
Cash viable – Bergeron, Marchand, Krug
GPP Sleeper – none
Colorado Avalanche @ Calgary Flames
Odds: CGY -230, 6.0 o/u
Colorado Avalanche: I am not letting one Mike Smith shut out take me off of MacKinnon. For GPPs you stand to gain a lot of leverage while rostering COL1 as most people will be off of Colorado entirely after putting up a goose egg. Outside of COL1, I am not looking to stack any other line here.
5 star plays – MacKinnon
4 star plays – Landeskog, Barrie
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Calgary Flames: The forward depth we knew this team had, came out to play in game 1 and I do not expect them to stop here. Tkachuk had a great performance and his linemates Backlund and Frolik remain cheap, letting you get exposure to the heavy favorites without breaking the bank.
5 star plays – Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Giordano
4 star plays – Monahan, Backlund, Frolik, Lindholm
Cash viable – Tkachuk, Frolik, Monahan, Gaudreau, Lindholm
GPP Sleeper – Bennett, Neal
Quick Read: NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First
DFS NHL Goalies for Today:
Mike Smith (BOTH): Following a shutout and a great performance by the boys in front of him, he is the safest grab at a W on this slate.
Ben Bishop (GPP): Nashville offensive production just hasn’t been there lately and the goal total reflects that. Grabbing the road goalie on a game with an implied total of 5.0 is a sound GPP move.