Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter talking hockey and football, even a little WNBA. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.
NHL DFS At A Glance
The first thing I do when starting my research is to look for strong teams facing weak defenses. I want the best odds I can find to get goals. I like the old Corsi number, as it denotes any shot attempt directed towards the net. It doesn’t matter if this shot attempt goes wide, gets blocked, or finds the back of the twine. You can’t score if you don’t shoot. I also love the “High Danger” metrics. These shots come from the slot (between the dots) and off quick passes or rebounds. They are what they say they are, and teams allowing a lot of high danger chances also tend to give up goals in bunches….perfect for the DFS player to attack.
If you have questions regarding these numbers or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums. Simply tag me (same name as my twitter name) and let’s get on the same page. First and foremost, I’m here to teach people wanting to learn the DFS side of this glorious frozen sport.
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Tampa Bay Lightning
Odds: TB -250, 6.5 o/u
Columbus Blue Jackets: Even after winning Game 1, Vegas is putting the line 40 more points in Tampa’s favor and I feel as though that is the correct move. The Lightning came out with a blaze taking a 3-0 lead then blowing it and I do not expect the President Trophy winners to make the same mistake twice. I am off of Columbus once again.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Tampa Bay Lightning: They will be the highest owned team on the slate but I am not missing out on the best team in hockey coming off a loss in their first playoff game. If the last slate they were on is any indicator (it is), Stamkos stands to give you the most leverage out of their studs if you are going with a mini stack. However, if I am eating Tampa chalk on a 4 game slate, I am eating it all, I like a 4 man stack of Stamkos-Kucherov-Point-Gourde for GPPs. For cash, Kucherov-Point-Gourde is about as safe as it gets.
5 star plays – Kucherov, Stamkos, Point
4 star plays – Gourde, Palat, Hedman
Cash viable – Kucherov, Gourde, Point
GPP Sleeper – Sergachev, Cirelli
Pittsburgh Penguins @ New York Islanders
Odds: PIT -130, 5.5 o/u
Pittsburgh Penguins: Murray slipping and Lehner making stellar saves is more so the story of Game 1 than the Islanders beating Pittsburgh, so I am staying on Pittsburgh this game. Bjugstad and Kessel remain stellar GPP plays at their price and ownership. Also, look for PIT1 to bounce back, Crosby and Guentzel are lethal, with the ownership gravitating towards Tampa heavily it is possible you can grab them at low ownership as well.
5 star plays – Crosby, Guentzel
4 star plays – Rust, Malkin, Kessel, Bjugstad, Letang
Cash viable – Bjugstad (Value Play), Rust, Guentzel
GPP Sleeper – Bjugstag, Kessel
New York Islanders: I am not putting my money on the Islanders going up 2-0, look elsewhere.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
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St. Louis Blues @ Winnipeg Jets
Odds: WPG -120, 5.5 o/u
St. Louis Blues: It is hard to get excited about a game when these teams only had 51 total shots in their previous meeting. For that reason I am not looking outside of STL1 and Pietrangelo here, I like to stick with the studs if I am rostering a low total game.
5 star plays – Tarasenko, O’Reilly
4 star plays – Schenn, Pietrangelo
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Winnipeg Jets: The only thing that stands out to me here is another WPG3 mini stack with Little and Laine to help you pay up for Tampa.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Laine, Little
Cash viable – Little (Value Play)
GPP Sleeper – Little, Laine
Vegas Golden Knights @ San Jose Sharks
Odds: SJ -135, 5.5 o/u
Vegas Golden Knights: The Knights made a late run at it but were outclasses by the Sharks last game. I do not expect that to happen again but when Fleury is shaky things can go wrong really fast. Statsny and Pacioretty offer nice value and both can be paired with Stone to make a good mini stack.
5 star plays – Stone
4 star plays – Pacioretty, Statsny, Smith, Karlsson, Theodore
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
San Jose Sharks: For exposure to the Sharks I am looking solely at PP1, Hertl, and Burns stand out as the best plays there but will for sure be the highest owned of the Sharks. Pivoting down to Couture and Karlsson is a solid leverage play or adding those two to a 4 man stack with Hertl and Burns.
5 star plays – Hertl, Burns
4 star plays – Couture, Pavelski, Karlsson
Cash viable – Burns, Hertl
GPP Sleeper – Vlasic, Thorton, Labanc
Quick Read: NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First
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DFS NHL Goalies for Today:
Andrei Vasilevsky (CASH): Tampa is a huge favorite at home coming off of a tough beat, look for Vasy and Tampa to stand tall.
Matt Murray (GPP): He has slipped in his last 2 outings but still boasts a .928 save percentage over his last 10 games. I am expecting a Murray bounce back along with a Penguins win.
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