Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter talking hockey and football, even a little WNBA. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.
NHL DFS At A Glance
The first thing I do when starting my research is to look for strong teams facing weak defenses. I want the best odds I can find to get goals. I like the old Corsi number, as it denotes any shot attempt directed towards the net. It doesn’t matter if this shot attempt goes wide, gets blocked, or finds the back of the twine. You can’t score if you don’t shoot. I also love the “High Danger” metrics. These shots come from the slot (between the dots) and off quick passes or rebounds. They are what they say they are, and teams allowing a lot of high danger chances also tend to give up goals in bunches….perfect for the DFS player to attack.
If you have questions regarding these numbers or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums. Simply tag me (same name as my twitter name) and let’s get on the same page. First and foremost, I’m here to teach people wanting to learn the DFS side of this glorious frozen sport.
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Boston Bruins
Odds: BOS -140, 6.0 o/u
Toronto Maple Leafs: For whatever reason, they decided to take Nylander off of TOR2 when he and Matthews ended the season on a roll. He now slots next to Kadri which could make for a nice low owned mini stack. TOR2 edges out TOR1 to me with how hot Matthews ended the season and how cheap the wingers there are for cash, but for GPP paying up for JT and Marner offers more leverage as most will look to the value. Toronto isn’t getting the respect they deserve after adding Tavares and Muzzin and the development of the youth. Leafs in 7.
5 star plays – Matthews
4 star plays – Tavares, Reilly, Marner, Nylander, Kapanen
Cash viable – Matthews, Kapanen, Johnsson
GPP Sleeper – Kadri-Nylander-Muzzin
Boston Bruins: The Leafs regular season ended with them allowing goals galore, that bodes well for BOS1 tonight. Outside of them, as I said, I do not believe the Leafs are getting the respect they deserve, so I will look for my value elsewhere.
5 star plays – Bergeron, Pastrnak
4 star plays – Marchand, Krug
Cash viable – Bergeron, Pastrnak, Marchand
GPP Sleeper – none
Carolina Hurricanes @ Washington Capitals
Odds: WAS -145, 6.0 o/u
Carolina Hurricanes: Carolina shoots the puck and Washington’s problem of allowing high danger chances remains a reality, look for Niederreiter to have plenty of rebound opportunities tonight. A mini stack of him and Aho is where I would look tonight, as I do not like CAR2 as much without Svechnikov on it and I do not like Svechnikov being forced to work with dead weight on CAR3. All things considered, Canes in 7.
5 star plays – Niederreiter
4 star plays – Aho, Faulk
Cash viable – Niederreiter, Aho
GPP Sleeper – none
Washington Capitals: The Hurricanes and Capitals are the only two teams in the bottom 10 in high danger chances allowed to make the playoffs, meaning this series should offer plenty of goal opportunities. Ovechkin could go low owned tonight with other studs in matchups that the general public likes. A stack of Ovechkin-Backstrom-Carlson is what I like in GPPs tonight but Tom Wilson remains a great play at his price and upside, he is a better cash play but is viable in both formats.
5 star plays – Ovechkin
4 star plays – Backstrom, Carlson, Wilson
Cash viable – Ovechkin, Wilson, Hagelin (Value Play)
GPP Sleeper – Eller, Connolly
Colorado Avalanche @ Calgary Flames
Odds: CGY -185, 6.0 o/u
Colorado Avalanche: MacKinnon makes for a great GPP play, the Flames goaltending has been shaky all year and with Landeskog back COL1 should see their chances. Outside of them, Calgary is a strong team and should have the ice tilted, so I really do not desire any more exposure. Flames in 5
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – MacKinnon, Landeskog, Barrie
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Calgary Flames: All of Calgary’s top 6 is in play while being in a good spot against Colorado. CGY1 remains pricy but Lindholm offers good value, look to him in cash but for GPPs you stand to gain leverage from not playing the value in Lindholm and going with a pricy stack of Tkachuk-Monahan-Gaudreau and even Giordano, with it being a 3 game slate and 4 stacks being very much in play.
5 star plays – Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Giordano
4 star plays – Lindholm, Monahan, Backlund,
Cash viable – Gaudreau, Lindholm, Tkachuk, Monahan, Frolik (Value Play)
GPP Sleeper – Sam Bennett
Quick Read: NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First
DFS NHL Goalies for Today:
Petr Mrazek (BOTH): With no goalies in good spots on this slate, I like Carolina to win and Mrazek stands to see some shots tonight giving a good ceiling.
Frederik Anderson (GPP): Most will look to Rask tonight and a perfect pivot is the goalie he is going up against. If they can keep BOS1 in check, Toronto should be able to win this game and series.