Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Early Slate:
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner.
Above are the top three pitchers in Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report for the early slate of games. When it comes to MLB, strikeouts are king, so the KSCORE is something I take into consideration very heavily. But let’s break these three down, shall we…
- Max Scherzer – Seeing Max at the top shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone, especially when he gets a matchup with the Miami Marlins. The Marlins have an implied run total of less than 3 in this spot. Scherzer has a Kscore of over 600, there really isn’t a bad thing to say about this spot for Max.
- Charlie Morton – Morton is another guy we shouldn’t be all that shocked to see near the top. With a Carnage Rating of under 3.00, he grades out as an elite option even against the tough Red Sox lineup. Morton hasn’t given up more than 2 earned runs in any of his starts this season. Don’t let the matchup scare you, especially if you’re playing the afternoon or turbo slates.
- Jameson Taillon – Taillon grades out as number three on the early slate. I love the matchup for him, as he gets a very weak San Francisco Giants lineup. However, this game had some weather issues last night and will likely continue tonight. Make sure to keep an eye on the Weather Station, but if we get the all clear he’s a great option.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the early slate:
We start with Dan Straily against the Twins, where we see him have a carnage rating of over 8.00. We don’t have a total yet on this game, but I don’t see any reason not to like a Twins stack here. Tampa Bay gets a nice matchup against Rick Porcello, who isn’t who he used to be. Porcello hasn’t scored more than 0.4 Draftkings points in any of his three starts this season and the Rays are swinging hot bats. They’re certainly viable here. Although Darvish has a high carnage rating, I don’t know that I’ll be stacking up the Diamondbacks. The wind in Chicago always plays a factor on the game, and it looks like the wind will be blowing in at around 20 mph. But, keep an eye on the Weather Station to be sure.
Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees
Odds: NYY -250, 8.5 o/u
The Yankees are massive favorites here, and I will likely have some interest in Tanaka if the weather cooperates. There is supposed to be a good amount of rain and win, so this is definitely a game we will want to keep an eye on the Weather Station for.
KC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Not a team I want to stack, but one-offs are fine at Yankee Stadium.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Brett Gardner, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: I like a Yankees stack if the game is clear to play
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Odds: Det -133, 9.0 o/u
I have zero interest in either of these pitchers, but yet again we have some weather issues… so I direct you toward the Weather Station. It looks like the wind will be blowing out which is a boost to bats, and I like both of these offenses as some sneaky stacking options on this slate.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Yonder Alonso, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Sneaky stack for the early slate
Det 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Niko Goodrum
4-star plays: Josh Harrison, Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: The bottom of the lineup is really ugly which keeps this from being a great stack, but it’s playable.
New York Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals
Odds:
Again, a game where I don’t have a lot of interest in the pitchers. Miles Mikolas has struggled this season and this will be Flexen’s first start of the year.
NYM 5-star plays: Robinson Cano, Peter Alonso, Michael Conforto
4-star plays: Wilson Ramos
GPP Note: The Mets have been good this season, not a bad stacking option
Stl 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna, Paul DeJong
4-star plays: Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: I stacked the Cardinals last night and they disappointed a bit, I’ll go back to the well here.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
Odds: Chi -135
Like I said, keep an eye on the Weather Station to see how the wind ends up playing out. If it’s blowing in, pitchers are viable and I’ll avoid the offenses. But, if the wind is blowing out, this park becomes one of the better stacking options on the slate. With that said, it looks like the wind will be blowing in. Both Greinke and Darvish are viable if that’s the case.
Ari 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: David Peralta, Adam Jones
GPP Note: Stack only if the wind ends up blowing out.
CHC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez
GPP Note: Only if the wind is right.
San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Odds: Pit -150, 7.5 o/u
Jameson Taillon is one of the better pitching options on the slate, and I’ve played more Derek Holland this year than I care to admit. This isn’t a game where I’ll be targeting offense, that’s for sure.
SF 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Zero interest in this offense
Pit 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: There are better spots on this slate
Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles
Odds:
This game got postponed last night, so I would expect Jose Berrios to get the start again tonight and is one of the better pitching options on the slate. The Twins are also in play as a stack, as Dan Straily is a gas can at this point in his career.
Min 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, CJ Cron
GPP Note: One of the better stacks of the day
Bal 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’ll have a lot of Berrios here.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland Athletics
Odds: Oak -146, 8.0 o/u
Matt Shoemaker has actually been pretty good this season and I don’t have an issue with using him in GPPs. Mike Fiers, on the other hand, hasn’t been great but gets a great matchup in the Jays. Of the two offenses, I would prefer the A’s, but not all that high on either side of this game.
Tor 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Justin Smoak
GPP Note: One-offs only for me
Oak 5-star plays: Khris Davis
4-star plays: Matt Chapman
GPP Note: One-offs again from me
Atlanta Braves @ Cleveland Indians
Odds:
Corey Kluber has not been good this season, and I have zero interest in targeting him against this lethal Braves lineup. Meanwhile, Julio Tehran has been decent and the Indians lineup isn’t what it used to be, although Lindor may be back for this game. I may just stay away from this game as a whole except for some one-offs on both sides.
Atl 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: One-offs only
Cle 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: One-offs only
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Odds: TB -145, 8.0 o/u
I touched on Porcello earlier, and he has been brutal this season. A Rays stack is certainly viable here. I’m fine with the star Red Sox as one-offs, but I won’t be stacking against Charlie Morton.
Bos 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez
GPP Note: One-offs only
TBR 5-star plays: Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Ji-Man Choi, Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz, Kevin Kiermaier, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: One of the better stacks on the slate
Main Slate:
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers
Odds:
This is Chase Anderson’s first start of the season as he transitions from the bullpen, I have no interest in him here. I also haven’t played a pitcher against the Brewers yet this season and I won’t be starting now. This lineup is just too good. With that said, I won’t be fully stacking the Brewers because I do respect Ryu’s talent. The Dodgers make for a pretty solid stack, as much as it hurts me to say.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Corey Seager
4-star plays: Justin Turner, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: One of the better stacks on the slate
Mil 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal (DK)
GPP Note: GPP stacks are fine, but I’ll stick to one-offs for cash games
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Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
Odds: Hou -235, 9.5 o/u
Justin Verlander pitched very well against the Rangers last night, and I’ll look for Cole to do the same here tonight. As for the Astros, they have an implied run total of 5.5 and I view them as one of the better stacks on the slate given their matchup. Jose Altuve is in one of those zones right now where it’s tough to fade him and feel good about it.
Hou 5-star plays: George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Josh Reddick, Tyler White
GPP Note: Do it if you can.
Tex 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: No need to attack Gerrit Cole here.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies
Odds: Phi -126, 11.0 o/u
Don’t target either of these pitchers, it feels tempting to want to go with Aaron Nola, but there’s enough pitching on the slate where we can avoid it. Both of these offenses are elite stacks.
Phi 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, Roman Quinn
GPP Note: Elite Stack
Col 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, David Dahl, Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Elite Stack
Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres
Odds: Cin -118, 7.5 o/u
I’ve got some interest in both of these pitchers, especially Luis Castillo. You can make a case for a Reds stack against Lauer, but I’ll likely go elsewhere.
Cin 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Matt Kemp, Eugenio Saurez, Yasiel Puig, Joey Votto
GPP Note: Large field GPPs only
SD 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Manny Machado
GPP Note: I like Castillo quite a bit here.
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
Odds: LAA -122, 9.0 o/u
I don’t have a ton of interest in either of these pitchers, but a case can be made for both of them as mid-range SP2 options. As for the offenses, I like the Mariners much more than the Angels. The bottom of the Angels lineup is just a rally killer.
Sea 5-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Mallex Smith, Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: Edwin Encarnacion, Domingo Santana, Jay Bruce
GPP Note: Very nice contrarian stack
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Justin Bour
GPP Note: One-offs only
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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