DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown Advice Strategy and Picks for Fanduel and Draftkings Apr 17

Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Game Break!!  You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process.  I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching.  But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic concepts from contest selection to lineup construction across all our main sports.  If you are looking for it, we cover it!  Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.

MLB DFS 101 – Everything Starts with a Consistent Process

A consistent process that works will help you complete your research in a timely fashion.  Consistent processes also give you confidence to ride through the rough times a volatile sport like MLB will throw your direction.  I have a simple process where I start with good pitchers, bad pitchers, and stackable offenses using the strong bats within.  I explain in three quick steps…

Identifying Quality MLB Pitching

I will use a combination of Vegas odds, KScore (definition inside DFS Army), and DFSA Grade (also inside DFS Army) to find the best combination of all three at the cheapest price.  I will find a great pitcher showing strength in all areas, and I will try to find a cheaper pitcher that doesn’t sacrifice too much in any of these categories.  Some days I can find cheaper pitching.  Other days, I’m paying all the way up.  Every slate is a fingerprint, and we live with what the slate offers rather than force plays in just because we like them.

APR 17 Report – Still a large slate of 10 games with plenty of options, but today is a bit easier for me to narrow down.  I tend to sort by KScore, and when the top dog, Hamels, also comes with favoring odds, a solid DFSA grade, a weaker opponent, and a slightly lower price than the most expensive pitcher on the slate it makes me lick my lips.  I’ve found my “pitcher to beat” today in 30 seconds.  Would I spend up for Carrasco to lose KScore, lose Vegas odds, and face a Mariners team that has homered in 20 straight games?  Nope…..Hamels is the safer option clearly.  Would I spend way down for Odorizzi  for nearly the same Vegas odds and KScore, yet pick up a far worse DFSA Grade?  Nope….for this discounted price, I need to see better Vegas and KScore metrics than what I’m leaving.  Beuhler is about the same, so I can roll nearly equal shares, but Wheeler and Happ just don’t make the cut with KScore potential today.  Hamels and Beuhler are by far my favorite two pitchers.  And, we are done in under 5 minutes of analysis………don’t overthink this stuff.

Attacking Bad Pitching with Team Offenses

When sorted properly, our DFSA Research Station is a gold mine of statistics and indicators.  Look at all that green circled!  These pitchers carry poor DFSA Grades, poor SIERAs, WHIPs, and even WScores (another VIP only metric created to indicate a pitcher in trouble).  To access those specialty stats, you just have to become a member and ask our coaches inside our teaching rooms.

APR 17 Report – Flip that DFSA Grade on its head and we find pitchers looking to get blown up by bats.  OAK, TEX, TBR, HOU, LAA, WAS, and CLE all find themselves in good spots again tonight.  ATL, CHC, and MIL also find intriguing factors favoring them.  OAK faces a pitcher with a 4.91 SIERA, 3rd highest on slate.  TBR faces a 5.05 SIERA and a pitcher struggling to get either side of the plate out, giving .335 woba to lefties and .340 to righties.  This means the Rays might mount a few longer rallies and put up some crooked numbers.  TEX, WAS, ATL, and MIL all face a pitcher struggling with both sides of the plate.  With several offenses on which to key, we need to focus on the bats inside the offenses likely to do the damage.  Below, you’ll see the lists of players currently producing…

How To Find MLB Hitters – Trending wOBA

Here is a page in DFS Army’s Research Station from which you can build entire lineups.  Trending wOBA…specifically the L7 column.  I’m a huge believer in MLB hot streaks.  And, I will ride them off and on all year.  People will shout that a guy is heating up or cooling off, but I prefer to watch this column over listening to the voices.  I won’t miss a guy by more than about 3 days.  If he gets hot, I’ll see it soon enough, and jump on board then.  And, I’ll get off a formerly hot player faster than most now, too.  Remember, pricing trails production in DFS, and it goes up much faster than it comes down.  When a guy is running hot, he’s usually underpriced.  And, when he cools off, he stays overpriced for a long time.  Use this tab to help you figure that out………..and ask me inside our coaching channels as a VIP.  This is my foundational building block for the next 6 months…..and it only takes a week to populate.

Filtered yesterday to show your Drafktings guys <3500 in salary with at least 10 plate appearances on the year.  We are going to need value today, and our Research Station allows you to find it in mere seconds once you have access to the tool and know how to manipulate it a little.

 

BOS Red Sox @ NYY Yankees

Odds:  NYY -115, 9.5 o/u

The game may carry a 9.5 total, but I’m not seeing much here to love.  NY is struggling at the plate and has no one hitting over .400 woba in the last 7 days….a sure sign I can wait to stack a better offense today.  BOS has yet to fully come around themselves.

BOS 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Bogaerts, Martinez, Benintendi
GPP note – might be lower owned for BOS standards, but on this slate, there really aren’t going to be any dominant stacks to avoid for leverage.

NYY 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – none

PIT Pirates @ DET Tigers

Odds:  PIT -115, 8 o/u

One-off potential, but neither team is some offensive juggernaut to stack.  We just can’t justify loading up on these offenses.

PIT 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Bell
GPP note – none

DET  5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – none

SFG Giants @ WAS Nationals

Odds:  WAS -140, 9 o/u

WAS bats find themselves in a good spot tonight.  I’ll have WAS shares, but they might not be the dominant stack I use.  I, again, won’t be touching SF.  Sure, I missed out last night, but they weren’t highly enough owned it stopped me from taking 4th in a smaller gpp and doing just fine without them.  I don’t sweat missing teams like that, and I don’t try and get cute by pegging a team scoring only 2.2 runs per game over it’s last 10 when it randomly erupts vs a quality pitcher.  That’s just a short train ride to Crazy Town.

SFG 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Longoria
GPP note –none

WAS 5 Star Plays – Rendon
4 Star Plays – Eaton
GPP note – none

BAL Orioles @ TBR Rays

Odds:  no current line

Focus again is on the Tampa side.  They get a pitcher tossing a 5.05 SIERA that has trouble getting lefties and righties both out.  I’m not interested in Baltimore at all.

BAL 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Mancini, Smith jr
GPP note – none

TBR 5 Star Plays – Lowe, Meadows
4 Star Plays – Kiermeier, Pham, Garcia, Adames
GPP note – I will have quite a few shares of stacks on this slate as they just keep scoring runs.

 

Here at DFS Army, we win……and we win a lot.  From smaller budgets and cash games to bigger whales swinging for the 6-figure fences, we’ve guided every type and every experience level for going on 4 seasons now.  Our members rave about the responsiveness and interaction between coaches and players, and we actually form friendships that span sports.  There is no community more invested in your success, nor a community that takes greater pride in your wins and sweats as we watch and root for you into the wee hours of mornings.  Don’t believe me?  See our Wall of Wins and just scroll through page after page and sport after sport…

CHC Cubs @ MIA Marlins

Odds:  CHC -160, 8 o/u

Just keep attacking Marlins.  There isn’t a lot else to analyze or say.  You can largely avoid Cole Hamels with Marlins bats on a larger slate like this, but you will want to consider Hamels as your pitcher today.

CHC 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Heyward, Contreras
GPP note – none

MIA 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Anderson
GPP note – none

ARI Diamondbacks @ ATL Braves

Odds:  ATL -165, 9 o/u

Both teams can score, as you saw again last night.  I lean more towards ATL tonight and their 4.96 implied run total from Vegas.  They also get a pitcher struggling to both sides of the plate and Ronald Acuna is one of the better one-offs in the league right now if you have enough money to afford him at the ends of your building processes.  Our vips get coaching and some video tips showing them how to manipulate our tools and bring players like Acuna to the forefront when appropriate.

ARI 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Escobar
GPP note – none

ATL 5 Star Plays – Acuna, Donaldson
4 Star Plays – Markakis, Camargo
GPP note – easy stack for me….or using individual hot bats as one-offs if focusing on other offenses tonight

TOR Blue Jays @ MIN Twins

Odds:  MIN -145, 9 o/u

TOR just keeps messing with my head.  I don’t typically need either them or the Twins to have a great night.  I can fade this game, but I understand if you still get sucked into the trap of metrics that always indicates TOR will have a great night, and MIN does have some hot bats worthy of consideration, too.

TOR 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Smoak, Gurriel
GPP note – none

MIN 5 Star Plays – Garver
4 Star Plays – Polanco, Rosario
GPP note – nothing making me run into this game

LAA Angels @ TEX Rangers

Odds:  TEX -125, 11 o/u

Here is the game most people will want.  Sheeple flock to easy to spot games, and they lean hard on Vegas indicators like implied runs and game totals.  So, in tourneys, I try to avoid these obvious spots and hope the game duds.  When it does, I find much lower ownership in other games that might go off and give me a better pathway to the top of tourney leaderboards.  That said, it’s hard to completely fade a game like this.

LAA 5 Star Plays – Trout
4 Star Plays – LaStella
GPP note – none

TEX 5 Star Plays – Choo, Gallo
4 Star Plays – Andrus, Cabrera
GPP note – might be kind of chalky

 

You see above you a unique to DFS Army members metric combining hard contact with BABIP to measure which players are hitting the ball hard but not seeing the typical results.  The gamble here is normalization of their numbers and a pending hot streak.  Last night, it worked well with 9 of the 20 players hitting home runs and having solid games.  More importantly to me is I get a nearly 50% shot at a homer, but none of these players put up a 0 last night.  MLB is about avoiding 0s, and this is a list capable of producing great cores and one-offs alike.

HOU Astros @ OAK Athletics

Odds:  HOU -115, 9 o/u

HOU did ok last night, but tonight might also be Oakland’s turn to catch the worse pitching.  OAK has been scoring early this year, and we might see a sneaky side of this game many aren’t going to spot.  I’ll have pieces of both.

HOU 5 Star Plays – Altuve
4 Star Plays – Bregman, Marisnick, Correa, Chirinos
GPP note – another great spot tonight for the Astros…..I’ll have shares

OAK 5 Star Plays – Pinder
4 Star Plays – Davis, Profar, Semien, Chapman
GPP note – I won’t get nuts with stacking A’s tonight.

CLE Indians @ SEA Mariners

Odds:  CLE -140, 8 o/u

Not our hammer game, but it’s on the slate and can be looked into again.  CLE has yet to erupt in earnest, but they will at some point.  SEA just keeps hitting homers, even in smaller scoring games.  I’m not targeting these pitchers, specifically, but I’m also not running and hiding, either.  I will have moderate exposure, mostly through one-offs.

CLE 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Martin, Ramirez, Miller, Santana
GPP note – might slip under radars being its out west and in a “pitcher’s park.”

SEA 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Encarnacion, Bruce, Haniger
GPP note – I won’t be heavily invested, but you can’t argue the runs they have collectively put up.

 

Starting Lineups for every game!  And, complete with xWOBA and DFSA Grades.  You can build your lineup strictly from our lineups tool and find quick success but watching the greens and reds line up.  Many more tools are being released through the day, and again, we have coaches at the ready to answer questions and guide you through the building process today….

Favorite MLB DFS Stacks for Tonight…

Those specific combos are inside our coaching channels for VIPs.  However, I will drop a sneaky gpp stack on you.  Our coaching picks page will be locked and loaded with many other great stacks for both gpps and safer contests to vault your scores over the competition.  There has never been a better time to #RaiseYourEdge and join our army hat logos on the tops of the leaderboards!

GPP Sleeper stack = ATL –  I just love Acuna right now and will include him nearly everywhere.  Stacks, not stacked, everywhere.

Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research.  I will be bouncing in and out of our MLB coaching rooms all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions.  I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process a few times a week, and with a little more time, VIP strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too.  All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.

–> Get the Key Today!  Start Winning With Us! <–

I hope to see you inside soon.  Have a blessed and profitable day.