Happy Easter, everyone! nillyJay here again – some of you may already know me; I’m a coach/contributor inside the DFS Army and my main focuses are NASCAR and MLB. If you’re not already, you can find and follow me here on Twitter or, for DFS Army members, in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
There’s no race for me to dig into this weekend, so I thought I’d get you guys started with this massive 15-game slate instead. As always, if you aren’t familiar with my content, be sure to check out these articles to get up to speed: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets.
CeeGee with another nice win, this time for $4,000. Congrats!!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
Because I created the carnage rating system, it only makes sense that I would start there when looking at a new slate. Let’s do just that:
There are a lot of good options on the slate today, and here are some of the best pitchers on the carnage report. Let’s take a look at them:
- Tyler Glasnow – He’s looked really good so far this season, so he’s definitely earned that expensive price tag that both sites have given him. He’ll square off against the Red Sox, a team that is loaded with talent but haven’t been able to really get things clicking yet this season. It would be difficult for me to recommend using a pitcher against the Red Sox in cash games, but I don’t see why you couldn’t go here in some GPP lineups.
- Joey Lucchesi – Lucchesi has also looked really good, and his matchup is certainly less scary. This looks to be a much safer option for cash games, even if his KSCORE is closer to the lower end of what we’d like to see. Still, he’s certainly viable.
- Stephen Strasburg – This matchup looks pretty nice for all formats, so I wouldn’t have much issue going here for either format. Looking at the BvP history, there have been plenty of strikeouts recorded, but not a ton of offensive production. This looks to be a pretty good matchup that we can feel good about in cash games but should also give us a shot at a nice ceiling in tournaments.
- Noah Syndergaard – He’s looking pretty good so far this year, striking out plenty of batters and putting up some respectable scores. However, we know this St Louis lineup can be dangerous, and those hard thrown pitches can go a long distance the other way if one of those big bats makes solid contact with it (looking at you, Goldy). This is a classic case of hedging to give yourself a safety net. If you take Syndergaard in cash games, make a few lineups stacking against him in GPP, because chances are one side of this matchup will put up some pretty nice scores.
- Chris Archer – Archer has looked fantastic so far this year and will face off against the Giants, a team that isn’t typically all that scary. Seeing that the Giants have very little experience against him, I think he’s one of the best options on the slate. Just look at that KSCORE!
- Dereck Rodriguez – On the other side of this game, Rodriguez has held his own too, and has a pretty good matchup himself. His KSCORE is a bit lower than I would like, but he still makes an interesting GPP option if you wanted to take both pitchers in this game, as it could certainly be a very low scoring one. For cash, however, I would rather pay up for one of the safer arms.
- Collin McHugh – It’s always a little risky attacking the Rangers (sorry, Cole…), but McHugh profiles pretty well against them, and he’s looked nothing short of fantastic so far this year. If you choose to go this route, I would hedge here too, like you would with Syndergaard and the Cardinals.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the day:
Lots of good options here to look for bats. There are a ton of games to go over today, so we’ll touch on them a little when we get there, but for now, these are the first teams I would look at to get an idea of where I wanted to go.
Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees
The Royals get to meet Paxton today, who they’ve struggled against in the limited number of times they’ve seen him. The Yankees haven’t seen Lopez either, and after losing Judge last night, they become that much weaker. All in all, this game could be pretty low scoring for everybody outside of the pitchers.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Mondesi
GPP note – I’m not too wild about them today, but a few contrarian stacks couldn’t hurt
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Gardner, Voit
GPP note – Will be weaker without Judge and have never faced Lopez
Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles
After putting up 16 runs last night, the Twins will face Bundy, who is no stranger to allowing a bunch of traffic on the bases. Gibson has looked decent but has issues of his own against lefties. This could easily turn into another big scoring game.
Twins 5 star plays – Cruz
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Rosario, Polanco
GPP note – Bundy is a DFS-friendly target, so don’t be afraid to go back to the well here. It could be chalky, but that’s not really a concern on such a big slate
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mancini, Villar
GPP note – If you want to attack Gibson, be sure to favor the Baltimore lefties
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
Strasburg looks to be in a pretty good spot, though we saw what this Marlins team can do if they’re on. While I do think Strasburg will have a better turnout today, it could still be worth taking some contrarian stacks with the Marlins and hope they ride the hot train through the weekend.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Soto
GPP note – Might be out for revenge after getting squashed last night
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Prado, Anderson
GPP note – Good place to go for a contrarian stack against Strasburg
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
As you saw above, this game has carnage written all over it, so don’t be surprised to see some fireworks here. It would probably be best to avoid the pitchers in this one, as there’s a pretty good chance that they will both get shelled.
White Sox 5 star plays – Anderson
White Sox 4 star plays – Alonso, Moncada, Abreu
GPP note – Carnage-worthy stacking option
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Goodrum, Castellanos
GPP note – Carnage-worthy stacking option
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
This one has the making to be a low-scoring affair for both sides, as both pitchers look to be in pretty good spots (especially Archer). A one-off or two might be okay, but I don’t think stacking is the way to go here.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt
GPP note – They’ll have a limited ceiling facing Archer
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Frazier, Moran (if he plays)
GPP note – More likely to go off than the Giants, but Rodriguez is no pushover, either
NBA playoffs are going strong. Congrats, DKPro1215!
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers
It seems like no matter who gets the mound in these games, one of these teams finds a way to put up some big numbers, if not both of them. I would have a hard time taking either of these pitchers in cash, and with so many games on the slate, we don’t need to. Both teams are very dangerous and deserve to be on your radar today, even the Dodgers who were a major letdown last night.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Seager, Turner
GPP note – I know they stunk it up last night, but don’t let that be a reason you avoid them today
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Cain, Grandal
GPP note – This team can go bananas against anybody, including Kershaw. Don’t be afraid to make a few stacks
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
This game will see a couple of pitchers who have looked pretty sharp this year, going up against two surprise teams for different reasons (the Red Sox who have underperformed and the Rays who have overachieved). I could easily see this one being a pitcher’s duel, as I don’t think either team will be in a spot to really go off. It might be best to grab a batter or two and head elsewhere.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Betts, Martinez
Red Sox 4 star plays – Benintendi, Moreland
GPP note – Tough matchup, but they need some wins. Two-man stacks or one-offs may be best
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham
GPP note – Price is a tough matchup and this lineup hasn’t had much success against him in the past. Grab a one-off or look elsewhere
New York Mets at St Louis Cardinals
I think this game will go one of two ways; either Syndergaard has a big game and shuts down the Cardinals, or they put his thunderbolts over the fence a few times. This one could definitely go either way, so I think having both sides would be a smart approach. As for the Mets, they’ve looked pretty good and get a good matchup against the struggling Hudson, so don’t forget about them.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Conforto, McNeil, Alonso
GPP note – Good matchup. Don’t forget about them today
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Ozuna, DeJong, Wong
GPP note – Consider stacking them where you aren’t taking Syndergaard
Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs
Ray has been up and down this season, so it’s hard to tell which one we’ll see today. Carnage is leaning towards the bad one showing up, so I’d have to recommend having some Cubs exposure because we know they’re capable of randomly putting up 10+ runs. The Diamondbacks will see Chatwood first, and after that, it’s anybody’s guess. I’m not too confident that full Diamondback stacks will be the way to go since the Cubs can select their matchups, but a one-off or two isn’t a terrible idea.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Walker, Peralta
GPP note – Might want to limit stacking due to the uncertainty of bullpen matchups
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Bryant, Contreras, Rizzo
GPP note – Carnage favors the Cubs, so grab a few stacks
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
The battle in Texas rages on, and after a somewhat disappointing performance last night, the Astros find themselves in another great spot to do some damage. McHugh, who has looked fantastic, will look to get some revenge for Cole after last night’s beating. Just like last night, I’d look at Houston bats for all formats, and save the Rangers for GPP.
Astros 5 star plays – Altuve, Bregman
Astros 4 star plays – Springer, Correa
GPP note – Another smash spot, but perhaps this time they will put up all the extra runs we were expecting from last night
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Choo, Santana, Gallo (boom or bust), Andrus
GPP note – McHugh has been very good, but as we saw last night, anything can happen
Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies
Coors games are always something we tend to discuss more in our coaching channels, so I can’t go into a ton of detail here. Should be a fun game though!
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper, Hoskins
Phillies 4 star plays – McCutchen, Realmuto
GPP note – A very talented lineup gets another Coors game. Stacking here is always an option
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon, Arenado
Rockies 4 star plays – Story, Dahl
GPP note – Not much to go off for Eickhoff in 2019 yet, but it’s Coors, so you can always find a reason to stack here
Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics
With several solid performances between them, Sanchez and Anderson will face off in Oakland, in what could be another low-scoring game today. Neither pitcher really stands above the other, but both could certainly limit the ceiling of the opposing team. I’d be a little cautious going too heavy on the stacks here.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Grichuk, Smoak
GPP note – Potentially limited ceiling in this matchup
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Davis, Semien, Chapman
GPP note – Potentially limited ceiling in this matchup
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
While neither of these pitchers has had a very bad game yet, both of them have allowed plenty of baserunners, so it’s only a matter of time before it happens. I’m not sure that they’ll be the most popular choices with so many games being played, but they’re definitely worth having some exposure to since both are in a prime spot to implode (both are allowing .360 xWOBA/.362 wOBA or worse).
Mariners 5 star plays – Vogelbach
Mariners 4 star plays – Santana, Haniger, Bruce
GPP note – Prime spot to put a hurting on Barria – get some stacks!
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Calhoun, Pujols
GPP note – Could very well go off today, especially if the bottom of the lineup comes through
Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres
And finally, we have our last game of the main slates, which includes another solid pitching option today in Joey Lucchesi. While Mahle doesn’t look quite as strong, he’s still doing a decent job (save for the game against the Dodgers, but he did last 6 innings in that one at least), so this too could be a low-scoring game where we don’t want a lot of exposure to the offenses.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Kemp (BvP), Suarez
GPP note – Limited ceiling in this matchup
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis, Hosmer, Machado, Myers, Reyes
GPP note – Also has a limited ceiling today, but a better chance of going off than the Reds do
Tiers are fun!
Like I mentioned earlier, I provide a tiers breakdown for our members every day. I figured since I was running the show today that I would slide in a freebie. Let’s take a look at Tier 3:
Lots of hot bats in this tier, but there’s some tough pitching to navigate as well. Conforto looks to be a solid cash game option (same could be said for Vogelbach too, and maybe Dahl), while there are several good GPP pivots here.
Closing thoughts
Thank you for joining me here today! I hope you found this article helpful with your research for all of the games we have this Easter Sunday. I have some more GPP thoughts for you guys in the DFS Army, so be sure to check my channel and #mlb-news-and-notes this afternoon for those.
As always, if you like what you see here and want to experience everything we have to offer, I’d encourage you to consider joining up with us. Just remember to use promo code NILLY to save 20% off for the lifetime of your active membership, for the best deal in daily fantasy sports. Until then, I hope you all enjoy your Easter Weekend!