BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 8 Location – Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Thanks for purchasing my UFC Fight Night 150 DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Florida. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a lot of money from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at that $25k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Court McGee $8,700 vs Dhiego Lima $7,500
Court McGee
Age: 34
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: The Pit
From: Utah
UFC Record: 8-6
Fight Matrix: 77
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Court McGee bounced back from back to back losses with a nice decision win over Alex Garcia. McGee is long time veteran of the UFC & needs to put some wins together now if he wants another run towards top 15 contention. McGee is a pressure fighter with well-rounded skills. He keeps a high pace, mixing takedowns, with a lot of volume of the feet. McGee throws a lot of jabs & one-twos. He will throw a jab, left hook combination. He will attack the body with jabs & one-twos. He has strong leg & body kicks. He will throw front kicks to the body as well. He can throw kicks with both legs. He likes to slip & rip in the pocket and has solid head movement. He will slip the jab & throw a left hook. He will slip & throw a straight-right hand as well. He likes to close the distance and get in the single collar clinch and throw short uppercuts. He isn’t the fastest guy, but his volume and forward pressure wears on fighters as time goes on. McGee has a sick chin and will eat shots, stay right in the pocket and continue to move forward. He has only been finished one time in his entire career. He doesn’t possess big power with only 3 TKO’s himself.
McGee has good timing on his double legs. He will get in on the legs, push opponents to the cage & work from there. He does a good job of changing his grip to a tight waist & trying to circle to the back. He is very good at finishing takedowns against the cage, especially as the fight goes on. He likes to land short knees to the body, shots to the head in the clinch and he will change levels to shoot for doubles and singles. He isn’t the most efficient wrestler early on, but he gets a takedown in round 3 in a majority of fights. When he is on top, he has nice ground and pound and likes to punch and pass to better positions. He has no problem staying in an opponent’s guard and beating them up with elbows and punches as well. He has never been submitted in his career, so he has good submission defense. He has earned 9 submissions himself, mostly rear naked chokes. McGee needs to be careful in round 1, but I think his long-range kicking game and ability to land and get out of range will frustrate Lima.
Dhiego Lima
Age: 29
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 77”
Gym: ATT Atlanta
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-5
Fight Matrix: 93
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Dhiego Lima finally broke through & won a UFC fight after losing 4 in a row. He is 2-5 overall in UFC fights, but he probably feels his time is now, coming off a big knockout win of Chad Laprise. He is still young at 29 years old. Lima likes to use a lot of lateral movement and try to stay long, throwing body kicks and counter right straights. He has nice hooks in close range. He dropped Jesse Taylor with one. He has big power in his shots early on. He will look for left hooks & one-twos. He will throw overhand right counters. He knocked out Chad Laprise with a left hook. He is kind of stiff on the feet with his punching, especially as the fight goes on. He will look to just land one kill shot & gets out volumed. He lets himself get backed up against the cage, and he has poor defense there. He does have solid kicks, both to the body and the head. He has taken a ton of damage over his career and has a questionable chin. He has been KO/TKO’d 4 times in his career and has 4 KO/TKO’s.
Lima has tried to round out his game and mix in some wrestling in recent fights. He will shoot for double legs and will try to land trips in the clinch. On top, he isn’t super active, but he is an opportunistic back taker and has good control there, but not great finishing ability. He has poor takedown defense, and Yushin Okami was able to take him down with double legs at will. He lets himself get backed to the fence and has his feet too close together, making it easy to dump him. Off his back, he isn’t very good. He is a brown belt in BJJ and has a couple triangle choke victories, but he doesn’t get-up off his back well and can get beat up. He has a bad get-up game & is usually grounded for the whole round. He tries to give his back to stand but doesn’t move fast enough in the scrambles & opponents take his back. Lima has been submitted only once & has seven submissions himself, but very early in his career. Lima needs to stand his ground more. He can’t allow McGee to back him up, because McGee will use his strikes to get in on the legs, work them against the cage and look for takedowns. He needs to try to control the center more & look to try to land a big shot in the pocket that puts McGee’s lights out.
I think McGee is the better overall fighter everywhere in this fight. Except for the power area. McGee should be the guy controlling where this fight takes place and he should be the one pushing forward and setting the pace. He also doesn’t slowdown in fights and can keep the same pace for all 3-rounds. I think he should look to mix in takedowns and force Lima to get back to his feet, and that will take away from Lima’s KO power as the fight goes on. I do think McGee is the rightful favorite here, but I just get the feeling he is going to get knocked out in this fight. I think Lima can keep this fight close on the feet, but I think he will need the finish to win. I don’t think he beats Court over the course of 15-minutes, but I think he is live for the knockout and that is what I am going to pick as my prediction in this fight.
On DraftKings, I don’t have a ton of interest in this fight, but my preferred play is Lima. I think his path to victory is the knockout and if he can get it then he should score well. If he gets it in round 1 then he could be on the optimal lineup. I am chasing that $25k this week so I am shooting for the 1st place lineup and I think Lima has a much easier path of getting there than McGee. I think if McGee wins it would likely be a decision and he could get around 10x his salary if that is the case. That is fine, but I don’t see that putting him on the $25k lineup so I would say he is a better cash game play than GPP play. I won’t have much exposure to McGee this week at all, but I will likely be a bit overweight on Lima, and I think Lima is a better GPP play than cash play.
Winner – Dhiego Lima via 2nd round (T)KO
Angela Hill $9,400 vs Jodie Esquibel $6,800
Angela Hill
Age: 31
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 64.5”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 3-6
Fight Matrix: 20
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Angie Hill is jumping right back into the fray after a quick loss. She was quickly submitted in a terrible performance against Randa Markos. She will be jumping in on short notice replacing her training partner & close friend, Jessica Penne. Angela Hill is a very quick and nimble striker. She has good movement on the outside, using false start, stutter step movements to throw off her blitzes and mixes it in with a lot of kicks and teips to the body and high kicks as well. She has great leg kicks off her blitzes and usually that is the shot she finishes with after she throws her right hand. She has a very nice jab & good right hook. She will throw an uppercut, right hook combo. She will attack the body with punches & kicks. She is great at mixing it up & targeting all areas. She will throw a left hook to leg kick combination. She will fake the left hook & throw a leg kick. She has a great overhand right and solid timing, catching opponents coming in with it. She is good at moving her head in the pocket and rolling with shots to lessen the impact. She will slip & return with nice punching combinations. She has nice head kicks & hard round kicks to the body. She is very good early, she is extremely fast and keeps a heavy volume of leg kicks and blitz attacks. Her in and out movement is very good. She is always pressing the fight & going forward. She throws a ton of volume & fights at a very fast pace. She can get caught against cage and unloaded on but has a solid chin and does a good job of tying up and reversing her position off the cage. She has some variety in her shots throwing a nice superman punch and step in elbows. She has 3 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes. She is very durable, she is one of the few fighters who has exchanged with Jessica Andrade & lived to talk about it.
Angela Hill is improving as a grappler, and much better than earlier in her UFC career. That didn’t show in her last match. She was quickly submitted in her last match and will be looking to right the wrongs here. She has good technique in the clinch. She has good head positioning, will dig an underhook & land nice knees to the body. She will also throw uppercuts & overhand rights. She will exit the clinch with hard elbows. She has improved her wrestling, but her takedown defense still isn’t great. She was taken down by Cortney Casey, but immediately attacked with an armbar & scrambled to top position. That was pretty impressive, because Casey is a brown belt. When she was taken down by a black belt in Livia Souza, she was able to keep her in her guard & had multiple referees standups. She has proved she can survive on the ground with good BJJ players. She was able to earn top position, against both Maryna Moroz & Ashley Yoder. She will be getting a good matchup here taking on a fellow striker & I doubt she will have to worry about many takedown attempts. Angela Hill is going to want to use her in & out movement, kicks & volume and just out strike Esquibel.
Jodie Esquibel
Age: 32
Height: 5’1
Weight: 115
Reach: 64”
Gym: Jackson Wink MMA
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 0-2
Fight Matrix: 41
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L2
Jodie Esquibel is getting her third crack to get a UFC victory. She is 0-2 in the UFC and coming off a bad loss to Jessica Aguilar. She is a striker fighting out of Jackson-Wink MMA. Esquibel likes to use a lot of lateral movement and then dart in for blitz attacks. She will throw a jab, right hook or jab, straight-right hand. She will throw uppercut, left hook combinations. She rarely throws kicks but will throw the occasional leg kick & front kicks to the body. She tends to struggle to find her range, throwing from too far out & is an air puncher. She has only one TKO, doesn’t have great power, and I would be shocked to see her get a standing finish. She has never been finished by strikes & her style of staying mobile makes it harder to KO her.
Esquibel has a low center of gravity, and it aids her in grappling situations. Her height makes it hard to shoot takedowns on her, and fighters have to use the clinch most of the time to get her down. She will close distance herself & crash into the clinch to control opponents against the cage. She has decent head positioning & will throw knees to the body. Esquibel doesn’t have bad takedown defense, but she can be taken down. Deana Bennett in the one time she took down Esquibel, had a fully extended armbar, that Jodie got out of. Esquibel is tough & is not a quick tapper. She got her back taken & submitted with a rear naked choke quickly against Alex Chambers, and If Hill gets her down she will be in a lot of trouble. Esquibel has lost 4 of 5 fights, and you have to imagine, she is questioning whether she is UFC level. Esquibel needs to keep this fight on the feet, use movement, blitz in & land her boxing combinations. She needs to be more willing to get hit & step into range to land. She maybe should even try to mix in takedowns & cage control.
Hill is taking this fight on short notice after losing to a 1st round submission a month ago. I think this is a great matchup for her and I don’t really see a path to victory for Esquibel. Hill’s weakness is her ground game, but I think she is a more dangerous submission artist than Esquibel. On the feet, I think Hill should pick her apart. She should be the fighter striking at the higher rate and her overall striking game is more technical and dangerous than Esquibel and she should be a lot faster as well. I think Hill gets a clear 30-27 win here and if she is taken down I think she works her way back up to her feet and is never in real jeopardy of losing a round.
On DraftKings, I think this is an easy fade this week on both sides. I think Hill should clearly win but it is going to be very hard for her to end up on the optimal lineup at $9.4k. She would need Hardy and Roberts to both lose or score lower than her if they win. I was planning on full fading this fight but it sounds like everyone is going to be fading Hill and I expect Hardy and Roberts to be popular. For that reason, I will take some shots on Hill because I am MMEing, but I would need over 20 lineups to ever consider her. I think both are OK cash plays because I do think it goes 3 rounds. I think Jodie has a fine floor for her price and I am pretty confident Hill gets her hand raised. I just see Hill scoring 85-90 DK points and for GPPs that won’t cut it, but for cash games it can. Not saying I am going that route for either of these ladies in my cash lineup, but I think they are both in play there.
Winner – Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision
Jim Miller $8,600 vs Jason Gonzalez $7,600
Jim Miller
Age: 35
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: AMA Fight Club
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 18-12-1
Fight Matrix: 37
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L1
Jim Miller has lost 5 of his last 6 fights, but it has been against fairly high-level competition. He was finished extremely quickly in his last match via rear naked choke. Jim Miller comes out fast but tends to slow down now with older age. He has a nice jab, straight-left hand. He also throws nasty low leg kicks. He has a powerful overhand left, and he does a great job of disguising it with level changes. He will throw an overhand left, right hook combination. His straight-left hand is fast, and he will attack the body it. He closed the distance with a straight-left, right hook to the body to overhand left and dropped Alex White, finishing with a rear naked choke in less than 2 minutes in his last win. He likes to lead with the inside low kick and follow with a left hook. He has hard body & head kicks and will blast through opponent’s arms with them. He likes to throw right uppercuts to straight-left hands in close range, and still has fast hands and dangerous boxing in the pocket. He has improved lateral movement and catches fighters as they come inside with an inside leg kick, right hook. He is an in your face pressure striker most of the time, and due to that he is hittable himself. He has a problem when fighters push him back with strikes. He doesn’t have great movement going backwards and can get trapped against the cage. He has tried to address that part of his game and does a better job of circling off the cage. Miller only has 2 KO/TKO’s in his career, but he does pack power and drops and submits opponents. He has shown a stellar chin over his career only being finished via strikes twice in his career.
Miller is still a fantastic wrestler and has a black belt in BJJ. Miller does a great job of landing reactive double legs and hides them well with his punches. He has a good single leg as well and can use it to drive his opponents to the cage to get a double leg. He is very dogged with his attempts, and willing to take punishment to get the fight to the mat. On top, Miller is awesome, he has great control and scrambling ability. He is very good at flowing on top and is always looking for submissions. He does a great job of finding the back & getting rear naked chokes. He is willing to really go for submissions such as guillotines and RNC’s, and when he gets them he looks great, but it also gets him in trouble when he doesn’t. Miller has been susceptible to takedowns himself, but it has mostly been against large wrestlers like Benson Henderson, Francisco Trinaldo, Michael Cheisa, Beneil Dariush, and Pat Healy, who were able to grind him out. In this fight I see Miller being the one getting the takedowns. He has 15 career submissions & has been submitted 3 times himself. Miller should use some lateral movement, throw a few leg kicks, and use Gonzalez’s aggressiveness against him. If he can get Gonzalez into a brawl he will be able to duck under & get takedowns. He also has big power, and while he can get knocked out he could also knockout Gonzalez in a wild exchange.
Jason Gonzalez
Age: 33
Height: 6’2
Weight: 155
Reach: 74”
Gym: Millennia MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Jason Gonzalez is returning after a year & half long layoff. He is 1-2 so far in the UFC and coming off a submission loss to Gregor Gillespie his last time out. Gonzalez is a long, southpaw striker with knockout power. He has a nice jab. He will throw a one-two combination. He has a nice straight-left hand, but he tends to duck his head whenever he throws it. He will attack the body with one-twos & straight punches. He will throw a one-two body or head kick combination. He has nice uppercuts. He has very nice front knees to the body & head. He is extremely aggressive & he needs to learn to be a bit more composed. When he gets hurt, he will sit down, and go wild. He will throw wide hooks & uppercuts while not moving his head. He was knocked out brutally by Drew Dober due to this, and Gregor Gillespie who is a wrestler, rocked him badly. He does have big power himself, & he will go out on his shield. He has 5 KO/TKO’s & is very dangerous. He has been finished twice by KO.
Gonzalez was dominated with wrestling in his last fight. He was facing an animal in Gregor Gillespie and felt what elite level wrestling is. Gonzalez does look to have decent takedown defense. He will make his base wide & attack with elbows to the head against the cage. He will attack with standing guillotines. He has a decent guard & used it to stand up several times against Gillespie. He was able to attack with a leg lock to stand up. I think against a black belt like Miller, he will leave a lot of openings. I see Miller easily being able to defend the triangle & armbar attempts and pass the legs into side control. I think if he can get to side control, he will probably be able to take the mount, the back and get a rear naked choke. He looks to get tired as the fight continues in grappling heavy fights. He had a nice d’arce choke against JC Cottrell and is opportunistic & aggressive on the floor as well. He has 7 submissions and been submitted twice. He has finished all 11 of his career wins & only been to one decision, were he lost. Gonzalez is going to want to keep it standing & try to crack the chin of Miller. He is going to be bigger & he needs to try to land a big shot and put Miller out. He can’t go crazy and allow Miller to take him down. I feel on top, Miller will easily be able to pass to dominant positions and could finish the fight.
Jim Miller is an old school vet with over 30 UFC fights. He is only 35 years old, but I think he is towards the end of his career. He is 1-5 in his last 6 fights and his one win was only 1:29 into the 1st round. I do give Miller the edge on the ground in this fight and if he can get it there then he can submit Gonzalez. I do think he can have some success with takedowns too, but not consistently. On the feet, I think Gonzalez is the more dangerous striker here and if I knew this fight would stay standing then I would take that +120 for sure. Miller has decent skills on the feet but it’s really his ground game that has kept him in the UFC all these years. This isn’t a confident pick of mine, but I see Gonzalez getting a knockout in this fight and it is a dog or pass fight for me on the betting line. I think Miller keeps this fight standing longer than he should and I see it ending badly for him. If he does go out there with a takedown heavy game plan then I think he is the rightful favorite, but he doesn’t shoot enough for my liking to take him at any juiced odds. If the odds flipped and you could get + money on Miller, then I would say it’s a dog or pass situation there as well.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Gonzalez. It is similar to the Lima/McGee fight for me where I just think Gonzalez has an easier time getting on that $25k lineup. I will be mixing around my exposure at that price range and I will try to be overweight to Gonzalez as well. I think Miller has an easier time getting on the $25k lineup than McGee, but I don’t see me having much Miller at all this week. I wouldn’t talk you off it, I just think there are better plays, so I will be very underweight to him if not fading completely. I think Gonzalez does have a decent shot of getting the win here, so I think he is in play as a cash underdog, but I would prefer him for GPPs because it’s the KO we really want from him. If he doesn’t get the KO, then I think Miller is the likely winner. He just needs a finish to end up on the 1st place lineup and I don’t want to invest much into that.
Winner – Jason Gonzalez via 1st round (T)KO
Gilbert Burns $9,100 vs Mike Davis $7,100
Gilbert Burns
Age: 32
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Combat Club
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 7-3
Fight Matrix: 26
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Gilbert Burns will be looking to build off the best performance in his career last time out against OAM. He will be taking on Blue-chip prospect Mike Davis, who is moving up a weight class, and taking this fight on short notice. Burns is a dangerous fighter. He has one punch knockout power, to compliment his world class Jiu-Jitsu. He is light on his feet & tries to be in & out. He will throw nice one-twos, along with a jab, overhand right. He has a nice left hook, dropping OAM with it in his last match. He will attack the body with straight punches & hooks. He has a solid jab, uppercut combination. He will throw heavy round kicks to the body & head. Burns still doesn’t have a lot of variety in his striking & if opponents can start to time his entries, he’s exploitable. He tends to float his lead hand low & backup in straight lines when pressured. He has a good chin & will take shots & return, usually landing the heavier shot. He has 5 KO/TKO’s & has been finished once by strikes.
Burns has really improved his wrestling. He is extremely physical for the division and uses it to his advantage. He will shoot a single, push opponents, chain it into a double & take fighters on rides. He was able to slam OAM multiple times, who is one of the strongest grapplers in the division. He will shoot nice, reactive doubles in space. He does a good job of using the entry to circle to the back & take it from standing position or drag opponents to the mat from there. When he is on top, he is one of the best top players in the UFC. He works very quickly & is always searching for the back. He has tremendous back control & top control overall. He will transition to mount as well, and search for armbars & rear naked chokes the whole time. He has 7 submissions in his career. He has finished 12 of his 14 wins & is just 2-2 in decisions. I see Burns trying to get this fight to the floor. Davis is a powerful & good boxer, and the easiest way to win for Burns is to use his physicality, get takedowns, and work from top position. I do see openings for Burns to connect on the feet & I feel he will be able to do more damage if he does. If he can mix it up, I see him eventually getting a finish over 3 rounds.
Mike Davis
Age: 26
Height: 6’0
Weight: 155 (Moving up)
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Fusion Xcel Performance
From: Florida
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 445 (FW)
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Mike Davis is a fighter who has been very close to making the UFC for a while now. He had an epic scrap with Sodiq Yusuff on the DWCS & is 7-1 overall. Davis is a good striker. He has a nice jab, and good left hook, straight-right hand combination. He likes to walk opponents down, use head movement & draw out counters. He will rip the body with jabs, straight punches & hooks. He has nice hook & uppercut combinations in close range. He has nice front & hook kicks to the body & head. He will attack with nice front knees to the body. He has fast hands & big power. I do feel he can be a little bit upright & hittable at times. He will also enter the pocket with his hands down. He was dropped & hurt multiple times by Sodiq Yusuff, and he can’t get hit by a fighter with the type of power that Burns has. He is also very heavy on his lead leg & I could see Burns throwing a lot of leg kicks. Davis has 6 KO/TKO’s in 7 wins & has finished all 7 of his pro wins. His one loss he showed a strong chin & recoverability, getting hurt, not getting discouraged & coming back.
I don’t envision Davis looking to grapple whatsoever in this match. He isn’t a very active wrestler, but he has decent takedowns. He has good doubles and is strong in top position. He will attack with heavy elbows, and he finished his most recent fight with a nasty kimura. He has good timing on double legs & will get clinch trip takedowns. He usually will only go for takedowns when he starts to get touched up a little bit or his opponent get overaggressive. In this matchup, no way he is going to take down the BJJ world champion Gilbert Burns. His takedown defense I really haven’t seen tested much. He looks to be a big, physical athlete at 145, but we will see if he can stop a takedown from one of the biggest 155ers on the roster. Davis has just the one submission in his most recent fight & has never been submitted himself. Davis is going to want to keep it on the feet & try to use his superior boxing to connect & hurt Burns. He has big power in both hands, and if he lands clean on Burns, he might go down.
This is a fun fight. Both guys are solid talents and high-level fighters, but this is a tough debut matchup for Davis. Davis has a great standup game and if he can keep this fight standing then he is live for a knockout or a decision win. I think he may have a slight edge on the feet and I would say he has a better chin as well. The ground is where Burns has a big advantage though. If Burns can get this fight to the ground, then he is one of the best BJJ guys in the game and he could lock up a submission in any round. He could also use takedowns to help him win on the judges’ scorecards. I think Burns is the rightful favorite in this fight, but I think the line should be closer than it is. I am going to pick Burns to get a win here by making it a close fight on the feet and edging it out with takedowns, but it’s a dog or pass fight on the betting line for me.
On DraftKings, I think my preferred play is Burns. I want a decent amount of exposure to this fight though, so I will have it in half or more of my lineups and I would guess I’ll be closer to 30% Burns and 20% Davis. I could see either of these guys getting a finish and ending up on the optimal, so I love this fight for GPPs. I don’t care for it much in cash games though because of the low floors. I could see a 1st round finish from either guy and I’d rather not mess around with that floor with my solo cash lineup. Let’s just get exposure to both sides of this fight in GPPs and hopefully it puts us in a good position to take down a GPP.
Winner – Gilbert Burns via Split Decision
Carla Esparza $8,200 vs Virna Jandiroba $8,000
Carla Esparza
Age: 31
Height: 5’1
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: Team Oyama
From: California
UFC Record: 4-4
Fight Matrix: 11
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Carla Esparza enters the slight favorite against an undefeated UFC newcomer. She was beaten to a pulp in her last fight against Tatiana Suarez and took a ton of damage. It’s an interesting turn for Esparza in her last two fights. Over her career she has predominately used her elite level wrestling to win fights. In her last matchup & this one, she will be trying to sprawl & out strike them. Esparza has much better footwork on the feet. She does a good job of using head movement & feinting her way inside & being in & out. She will circle to the right & walk opponents into heavy leg kicks, straight shots & right hooks. She will throw an inside leg kick, overhand left combination. Carla will wain forward with hook combinations. She does a good job of faking level changes & throwing body & head shots off it. She is great when she blitz’s forward throwing in combination & not getting tired. She will throw superman punches & front kicks. She shouldn’t throw kicks in this fight & just look to box. Esparza has 3 KO/TKO’s. She got TKO’d in her last match & took a lot damage on the mat. She has been finished by strikes twice in her career.
Carla Esparza is an NCAA college wrestler. She has shown that by defeating good Jiu-Jitsu fighters with top control such as Rose Namajunas. Esparza has nice double leg takedowns and good top control. She doesn’t have devastating ground & pound, but she will move to dominant positions and control on top. Her takedown defense is not bad, but in her last three fights she has been taken down in every fight. She can blitz in & give her hips away at times with her striking. She does do a good job of exiting with knees to the body if she can see the takedown coming. Off her back I don’t really like Esparza. She doesn’t have good get-ups & can get exhausted having to fend off takedown attempts. She is tough, will never give up, and will continue to scramble & try to win the fight even if she’s exhausted or getting dominated. Esparza has taken down all 8 of her UFC opponents, and isn’t a slouch in the grappling department, but should look to keep it on the feet here. Esparza does have 5 submissions & been submitted only once. She has all the experience here and fought much higher-level fighters. She needs to use lateral movement to circle Jandiroba into her right hook, straight-right, and leg kicks. She needs to setup when she blitz’s forward with attacks, kicks & stay off her back. If she can keep it on the feet over three rounds she will win the fight.
Virna Jandiroba
Age: 30
Height: 5’2
Weight: 115
Reach: N/A
Gym: Academia Fight House
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W14
Virna Jandiroba is 14-0 out of Brazil & is getting to fight a former UFC champion in her debut. Jandiroba is the Invicta SW champion & an elite black belt. She has 11 submissions in 4 victories. Jandiroba isn’t the greatest striker. She is slow & a bit stiff with her technique. She will throw a jab, left hook combination out there. She will throw a one-two or jab, overhand right. She throws a lot of round kicks to the body. When she throws shots, she leaves herself very open to counters. She doesn’t bring her hands back to her face fast enough, and fighters that can see her slower shots coming can counter her. She doesn’t move her head & she leaves her chin high. If she is forced to strike, she looks uncomfortable & will shoot some bad takedowns. If she cannot get it to the ground in this fight, I don’t see her winning the striking. She has been able to implement her game in all her fights so far & has no KO/TKO’s herself.
Jandiroba has no secret of where she wants the fight. She wants to put opponents on their backs. She is a strong wrestler and has nice timing on her double legs. On top, she is excellent. She has tremendous guard passing & loves to get to side control. She will attack with a guillotine, then try to get to crucifix position & mount take from there. She will fake like she is going to go for a guillotine & move right into mount. She has a very high mount with amazing control & will look for armbars & triangles. She will take the back & has nice rear naked chokes. She is much more submission over ground & pound, but she will soften opponents up with big hammerfist & elbows if they are good on the ground. If she can get a takedown, she usually is winning the round & her opponent isn’t standing up. She is extremely heavy on top & has a very pressure passing methodical top game. She will instantly become one of the best Jiu-Jitsu players in the UFC woman’s divisions. She has 11 submissions. Jandiroba is going to have to get this fight to the ground. She should try to time the blitz entries of Esparza with a takedown attempt. If she can get top position on Esparza, I see her being very physically strong & being able to methodically pass to dominant positions. Esparza is extremely hard to finish & I don’t see her submitting her, but takedowns & top control are her path to victory.
Jandiroba is taking this fight on short notice and is the slight favorite over a former champion. I was pretty surprised to see that before I started my research on this fight. However, I think she does deserve to be a favorite here after I watched her fights. She is a former Invicta champion and she is a very solid BJJ black belt. She has OK standup, but her ground game is the reason she is the favorite here. She is pretty relentless with takedowns and when she gets the fight to the mat she looks to lock up a submission. I do expect her to be able to land takedowns here too, so if she can do that in two rounds then she can win a decision with top control time as well. I do think Esparza is the better boxer of the two though so if she can use her wrestling in defense and keep this fight standing then I think she would be the likely winner. She could also land takedowns of her own, but I don’t think it would be in her best interest to test Jandiroba’s ground game. I think Jandiroba is able to land takedowns here though and I think she can finish Esparza on the ground. I am going to lean with Jandiroba here by submission or decision but if she is unable to get takedowns then I think Esparza would win a somewhat boring striking match on the judges’ scorecards.
On DraftKings, Jandiroba is my preferred play. I like that she should be the one going for takedowns and I think she has the much better chance of getting a finish as well. We also get her for cheaper than Esparza. This isn’t a play that I will be heavy on, but I would guess I will be in line with the field ownership or I’ll be slightly overweight. I will be full fading Esparza here though and even if she wins I think she would likely score ~60 points and that won’t do us any good. I will have zero lineups this weekend with Carla and I think Jandiroba is in play for all formats. I do think she will need a finish to end up on the optimal though and I don’t want to invest a lot in that being the outcome.
Winner – Virna Jandiroba via 1st round Submission
Augusto Sakai $8,400 vs Andrei Arlovski $7,800
Augusto Sakai
Age: 27
Height: 6’3
Weight: 265.6
Reach: 77”
Gym: Gile Ribeiro Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 46
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: W3
Augusto Sakai is getting an opportunity at an aging legend here. He was successful defeating Chase Sherman in his UFC debut, and with a win here he would get a top 15 opponent next time out most likely. Sakai is a huge guy, but actually moves fairly well for his size. He isn’t in the best physical shape, but he tops the scales at 265, and is light on his feet for someone that size. He will walk opponents down & has good pressure. Sakai has heavy leg kicks. He will throw a one-two. He likes to throw an overhand right, left hook combination. When he throws combinations, he tends to return his hands slow & sticks his chin out. He will throw nice front kicks to the body. He will throw the occasional head kick, but it is very sloppy. He can be low volume, but he has the cardio to pick it up in the third round and when he does hurt opponents, he will flurry with combinations. He doesn’t have huge power & is more of a volume finisher. He was able to finish Chase Sherman in his last match, but it was after a huge flurry of shots. He does have 10 KO/TKO’s in 12 wins.
Augusto Sakai isn’t a grappler and will rarely try to wrestle. His takedown defense isn’t terrible, but, I feel anyone with athleticism & a wrestling background, should be able to take him down. Sakai is decent in the clinch. He is heavy & will grab the Thai plum, and lean his weight on his opponents while slamming knees into the body & head. If he can drop an opponent & get on top, he is very heavy there. He will throw nice elbows, and it’s hard to move under him. Off his back, he has good get-ups when he’s fresh, but can be controlled later in the fight. Sakai is going to need to have the best performance of his career here. He has to keep the volume higher & try to wear on Arlovski with leg kicks, front kicks to the body, and then go to the head. I think his hands aren’t as good & he shouldn’t look to box much or he could get KO’d. If he can pick at Arlovski, he could potentially get a late finish. I don’t think he has the power to finish Arlovski with one punch, but it is HW and anything can happen.
Andrei Arlovski
Age: 40
Height: 6’3
Weight: 245
Reach: 77”
Gym: ATT
From: Belarus
UFC Record: 16-12-1
Fight Matrix: 29
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: 1NC
Andrei Arlovski at 40 years old has been one of the most active HWs on the roster the last few years. Since returning to the UFC in 2014 he has fought 14 times. This will be his 5th fight in 13 months. In my opinion, this is a step down in competition from even Walt Harris, and the UFC may be trying to give AA a win. His last fight vs Walt Harris he lost a split decision, but it was changed to no contest due to Harris failing a drug test. He is 2-7-1 in his last 10 fights. Arlovski still is a good striker. He has a solid jab, and nice leg kicks. He will throw oblique kicks to the legs as well. He has a nice straight & right hook lead. He will throw a right hook, left uppercut, right hook combination. He has nice spinning back fists. He has solid round kicks to the body & head. He was throwing hook kicks to the body & head in his last match. Arlovski has been very low volume lately. He does a lot of waiting & tries to counter as opponents open themselves up. His last three fights could have gone either way & none have gone to him.
Arlovski likes to grapple more now than early in his career. When fighters get inside on him, he likes to crash into the clinch & try to push opponents against the cage. He does a good job of keeping opponents there & getting a chance to rest. He has a good trip takedown, but his top game & control is not great. He can be taken down himself, but he has good get-ups & overall strong takedown defense. He can get gassed out in long grappling exchanges especially in the clinch. I don’t see either fighter looking to get many takedowns. I think Arlovski will be the better striker here. He has the faster, crisper hands & I feel the more one-shot power in his shots. I think he will be able to counter Sakai as Sakai tries to get inside with punches. He should look to move & frustrate Sakai with his foot speed.
This should be a slower paced heavyweight fight that stays standing as long as it lasts. I think it could last all 15-minutes too. Arlovski is the better overall fighter in my opinion but he is at the end of his career and is slower and has less power than he did a few years back. I haven’t really been too impressed with Sakai though, so I think this is a very winnable fight for Andrei. Sakai is going to need to look to outpace Arlovski or get a knockout for the win here. I don’t see either guy going for many/any takedowns here, so it could come down to who landed the harder shots to grab the judge’s attention more and win on the scorecards. I do think this is a step down in competition for Arlovski and I don’t see why he is the underdog. I think this line should be flipped or a 50/50 line. For that reason, I am going to take a 1u shot on the underdog here and I would love for Arlovski to get this win and ride off into the sunset on a high note.
This is another fight I don’t love for DraftKings. I think this likely goes 3 rounds and the winner probably won’t ever 10x their salary. I think both guys are playable because they are heavyweights and it only takes one shot from those big guys, but I will be underweight to both. I guess my preferred play is Arlovski because I am picking him to win and we need underdogs in our lineups. However, I think Sakai has the better shot at being on the $25k lineup because I think he is more likely to get a finish and if it is in round 1 then he could very easily knock guys like Hardy and Roberts off the optimal. I am not sure what my ownership will look like yet on this fight, but I will be underweight to both. I will likely just make my favorite couple of lineups with both guys and just roll those out. If you are making 10 or less lineups I would just pick a side or fade the fight altogether. I think Arlovski makes for the better cash game play, but I think Sakai makes for the better GPP play.
Winner – Andrei Arlovski via Split Decision
Takashi Sato $9,000 vs Ben Saunders $7,200
Takashi Sato
Age: 28
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: N/A
Gym: Tribe Tokyo MMA
From: Japan
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 161
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Takashi Sato will be making his UFC debut as more than a 2-1 favorite. Sato looks to be a very good striker. He has a wide stance & is very light on his feet. He controls distance extremely well. He has a nasty jab, & a clean, powerful straight-left hand. His punches come fast & he moves extremely fluidly with little to no wasted movement. He does a great job of throwing a jab followed by a left elbow, which is nasty. He will attack the body with brutal body shots, straight-left hands & left hooks. He is excellent at just sliding out of the way of strikes & countering with his straight-left or left hook. He does stand a bit upright & has his chin high, so he is there to be hit. His eyes & head movement save him in that regard, because he’s able to see the shots coming, move, counter & discourage his opponents. He has extremely fast hand speed & does a great job of peppering with shots & then mixing in more powerful ones. He showed great recoverability in his last match, he was dropped & recovered in the same round to get back up drop & finish his opponent.
Sato has good grappling. He has good body lock & judo throw takedowns. He has a strong top game, he likes to take the back & will get the mount & finish with strikes. He won his last fight with strikes from mount. Sato is a good defensive grappler. He has solid takedown defense & good get-ups. In the clinch, he has strong hips & will even counter with judo throws & big elbows. He is good at springing right back to his feet & not letting opponents get his hips square on the mat. He is good at spraying & circling to the back himself. I feel he will be able to defend any takedown attempt that Ben Saunders tries & easily be able to get back to his feet if taken down. Sato impressed me a lot with his grappling ability, even though he got submitted in his fight vs Glaico Franca. He was able to deny a majority of the takedown attempts, stand up very quickly when taken down, and even defended a rear naked choke & had some ground & pound from top control.
Ben Saunders
Age: 36
Height: 6’3
Weight: 170
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: 10th Plant Jiu-Jitsu
From: Florida
UFC Record: 9-8
Fight Matrix: 81
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L2
Ben Saunders will be giving it another go here. He has been finished in 4 of his last 5 fights, and badly needs a win. He is fighting near his home town & I’m sure he will have a lot of motivation & support. Saunders is a long, rangy southpaw. He has a decent one-two & a nice straight-left hand. He will eat shots to return with the straight-left & he has power. He likes to throw a check or lead left hook as well. He can overextend on his punches at times & leaves a lot of counter opportunities. When he gets rocked, he will reach for the clinch at times, instead of using movement, leading to him being knocked out. He has solid kicks. He will throw nice, inside leg kicks & good front & round kicks to the body. He will throw high kicks also & they have power when landed. He can get his kicks caught sometimes, by throwing them without setting them up, or without enough space & gets countered. He will pressure forward, be very aggressive & make it a kill or be killed type of fight if he has to. He is willing to take punishment, stick in the danger zone & fire back. He is slow & I feel he is going to really struggle with the movement, distance control & counters of Sato. Saunders is extremely tough & will continue to fire back unless you put him out cold. He has taken a lot of losses, but he has unwavering confidence, which still makes him dangerous. He has 11 KO/TKO’s & has been finished 7 times by strikes. His ability to take a shot is severely diminished, and he was knocked out very quickly his last time out by Lyman Good.
Saunders is a solid Jiu-Jitsu player & dangerous in the clinch. His last win was due to a knee to the body in the clinch vs Jake Ellenberger. He has strong knees to the body & head & will mix in hard elbows to the head. He can leave too much space in the clinch & get hit with big shots himself, like uppercuts & hooks over the top along with big elbows. He is willing to exchange in the clinch & has the heart of a lion. Saunders isn’t a wrestler & only has 5 takedowns attempts in his 17 fight UFC career. His takedown isn’t great & I feel he invites fighters to go in his guard. He has worked hard with Eddie Bravo to perfect his rubber guard & it’s one of the best in MMA. He is good at using it to land elbows & punches along with going for submissions. He has one of the few omaplata finishes in UFC history against Chris Heatherly. He has gotten that rubber guard neutralized in the past. Patrick Cote was able to use posture to avoid it & win with top control. Sergio Moraes easily was able to pass his guard & eventually got a submission. Saunders is a veteran, he’s seen it all & has great cardio always coming prepared. Saunders has 6 submissions, & only been submitted once. Saunders is going to have to make this fight ugly. He has to not respect the striking of Sato & try to counter him with straight punches as he enters because Sato does leave his chin out there. Sato was dropped pretty hard in his last match, before recovering to get the finish himself. Saunders needs to go forward, throw a ton of volume, try to get in the clinch, and just try to make it a war. If he just stays at range & allows Sato to get his timing & reads, he will be knocked out. If Saunders can somehow get it to the ground, that’s a wise decision, but I find it hard to see him getting a takedown.
I really hope this is the last fight for Saunders, win or lose. I don’t ever see him having any shot at a title run at this point in his career and he has been knocked out 7 times in his pro career. Multiple of them being totally unconscious. The chin is one thing a fighter can’t improve and when you get knocked out multiple times you have to start worrying about CTE in their futures. I think this is a bad match for Saunders too because Sato is a solid counter puncher and he has knockout power. I think the most likely outcome in this fight is that Sato wins by knockout. Skill wise, Saunders can hang on the feet and on the ground in this matchup, but I don’t believe his chin can over the course of 15-minutes. I think Ben can have his moments early in the fight, but I think it’s a matter of time before Sato lands one big punch and hands Saunders his 8th (T)KO loss.
Every fight from here through the main event is expected to end inside the distance. This is where it starts getting real important for the GPPs most likely. We need to nail the fights that end in a finish and hopefully we can hit the nut combo of 6 finishes and win a GPP. My preferred play here is definitely Sato. I think if he wins it is probably by a knockout and I think that could come in round 1. I like Sato in all formats and he will be a guy I have a solid amount of exposure to. I was originally planning on fading Saunders here, but he has finishing potential as well and he will be very low owned. I don’t hate a dart shot or two on Saunders, but he is strictly GPP only and I would need more than 20 lineups before considering him. I would guess Sato is 30-35% owned this week so I will be sure to have more than that with my personal lineups.
Winner – Takashi Sato via 1st round (T)KO
Roosevelt Roberts $9,500 vs Thomas Gifford $6,700
Roosevelt Roberts
Age: 25
Height: 6’1
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: Cortez Martial Arts
From: California
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 117
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Roosevelt Roberts was impressive in his UFC debut. He was able to get a first round submission against tough veteran in Darrell Horcher. Roberts is a 6’1 LW and does a great job of using his height & reach. Roosevelt Roberts is very good. He has nice leg kicks, and good front kicks to the body. He has a good overhand right, and fast straight-right hand. He is still developing as a striker, but he is very fast and athletic with a long frame for the division and has the ability to be a good striker. He keeps his chin a bit high and good fighters can counter and land clean punches. He does do a decent job of parrying and using head movement to avoid punches. He likes throwing hooks and uppercuts in the pocket but can get a bit flat footed and he tends to lean back at times to avoid shots instead of using lateral movement. His counter left hook is dangerous, and he has solid power in his hands. He has 3 TKO’s in his career, but most of those have come from top position on the ground. Roberts is a great wrestler, and submission grappler. He is explosive closing the distance with double legs and will elevate and slam opponents to the mat. He is also very strong in the clinch where he gets easy body lock takedowns due to his length. On top, he does a great job of passing, moving to dominant position and raining down punishment. He gets a high mount and is very hard to buck off while landing hard, relentless G&P. He does a great job of landing frame elbows, eventually forcing his opponents to get TKO’d or give their back and get rear naked choked. He is dangerous with standing chokes and will jump on guillotines, and front chokes. He got a standing guillotine in his last match. He has 4 career submissions. Roberts should be able to get inside & get takedowns. I see him having a grappling centric game plan here and looking for a submission. He is the superior athlete & much better wrestler.
Thomas Gifford
Age: 26
Height: 6’1
Weight: 155
Reach: 76”
Gym: Factory X
From: Arkansas
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 132
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: W2
Thomas Gifford will be making his UFC debut. He is training out of Factory X for the first time this camp. He is an interesting fighter as well, because he will not only be able to match Roberts in height, but also has a 3” reach advantage. Gifford is light on his feet & pretty good in & out. He has a nice, snappy jab. He has a nice one-two. He will throw a left hook, straight-right hand combination. He likes to move his head off center line & throw a right hook or right straight. He has decent head movement & will attack the body with punches. He has heavy leg kicks. He will throw solid round & front kicks to the body. He is still very hittable himself, but he has a good chin & is willing to go to war. Gifford has 3 KO/TKO’s & decent power. He will drop & submit opponents. He has been knocked out 2 times in MMA & also been KO’d as a boxer multiple times.
Gifford is a bad wrestler. His takedown defense is not good & he gets taken down in almost all his fights. He will attack with a pretty slick guillotine, but if you can get him flat on his back, he doesn’t have much. He does have a decent triangle, but I feel against good grapplers, that will easily be defended. I think his grappling is a glaring weakness against UFC level competition. He is very tough & had a fight of the year candidate in his last match. He has 12 career submissions. He has finished all 14 of his wins & has been finished in 5 of his 6 career losses. He is 0-1 in decisions. Gifford is going to try to use his boxing & then work submissions off his back. He is going to most likely be the longest fighter Roberts has fought & he has to keep him off balance with the jab & leg kicks before landing heavier shots. He needs to avoid being on his back.
Both guys are solid grapplers, but Roberts is the far better wrestler. I think Gifford can have some success on the feet, but he doesn’t have great takedown defense and Roberts should be able to get takedowns at any time here. I think Roberts has more power in his punches too, but I don’t expect him to stand a lot in this fight. I expect him to look for takedowns early and often and work his way to a submission or ground and pound win. He is the biggest favorite on the card and I would have to agree with that as he would be my most confident pick of the card. I think the line is too high to bet straight but he is a decent parlay piece if you wanted to go that route.
On DraftKings, Roberts is my preferred play and he is playable in all formats. He has an ITD line of -170 and he has a lot of grappling upside. He is hard to afford at $9.5k but if you have the salary for him then he is one of my favorite plays on the board. I will be overweight to Roberts and Gifford will be a fade for me. I’ll need over 50 lineups before I decide to throw Gifford in one, but he will be very low owned. I think the big GPP with $25k or the $1 mini-max GPP would be the only tournaments I would even consider Gifford and that is purely for an ownership reason. If he wins he will probably be 5-10% owned and it will also kill off ~40% or so lineups with Roberts in them. If you are going heavy on Roberts and MMEing then I think a hedge lineup or two on Gifford is fine.
Winner – Roosevelt Roberts via 1st round Submission
John Lineker $8,500 vs Cory Sandhagen $7,700
John Lineker
Age: 29
Height: 5’3
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: ATT
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 12-3
Fight Matrix:
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
This fight has been quickly rebooked. Lineker was forced to pull out in January, but they are running it back here in April. John Lineker is a vicious knockout artist. He almost solely throws hooks, but he will dig them to the body and the head with both hands and overwhelm his opponents with power and volume. He will throw a one-two to the body or head to hook combinations. He will throw a straight-right to a left hook combination. He always throws the right hook to the body to a left hook combination. He has nice, low leg kicks, and will throw front kicks to the body & head. He will throw spinning back kicks to the body. He is very good at catching kicks & returning with punches. He has good forward pressure, but he doesn’t always cut the cage off the best. He can strike in both ways, going backwards and trying to draw opponents into his shots or by walking them down and backing them up against the cage where he does his best work. When he gets opponents against the cage, he will unload with hooks to the body and head. He will mix uppercuts into those attacks. He has the most knockdowns in UFC history and anyone who has decided to stand and trade with Lineker has lost. He is 12-3 in the UFC with 6 Knockouts, and all three of his losses are due to more wrestling centric game plans. He is still pretty solid at denying takedowns, and only recently was able to be taken down by Dillashaw. He has a legendary chin and eating shots just fires him up to get in a war. He has great cardio and can go hard for 5 rounds. Lineker has 14 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Lineker has good takedown defense & get-ups, and mostly uses his grappling defensively. He will go for singles against the cage & control opponents there. He does a good job of using his leg kicks to sweep the leg & get top position, along with catching kicks to get takedowns. When he does get taken down, he has a decent guillotine from his guard & will look to dig an underhook in half guard to stand up. When he was taken down by TJ Dillashaw, he got a lock down position in half guard, but couldn’t get-up. He is decent at trying to move & create scrambles, he will look for leg locks. He was trying to strike off his back & was willingly taking shots while laughing & asking for more. He has an amazing chin but doing that only leads to losing. When he does get top control, he has good ground & pound. He is aggressive & will throw big hammerfist & elbows. He has been submitted 3 times and has 4 himself. There is no mystery on what John Lineker is going to do. He is going to throw hard leg kicks and try to close the distance with his vicious hooks. He will try to back Sandhagen up & unload on him against the cage. He is more experienced & if he can overwhelm Sandhagen with his pressure or goad him into a war, he could get a knockout. I think he will be the physically, stronger fighter, and if he’s struggling to close he distance, he should clinch, push Sandhagen to the cage & work from there.
Cory Sandhagen
Age: 27
Height: 5’11
Weight: 135
Reach: 71”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix:
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Cory Sandhagen was able to stay on the card & get another win against a late replacement. He defeated Mario Bautista but is now getting the matchup he wanted, a top five opponent in John Lineker. Cory Sandhagen is a high-volume striker with solid wrestling skills. Sandhagen averages almost 10 strikes landed per minute, and only absorbs 2.7. He likes to leap into punches, and he can land shots from a long way out. He has a nasty jab and a strong straight-left hand. He is always switching stances and will switch stances mid combination. He likes to throw a jab from southpaw, then change stances & throw a straight-right hand. He uses a lot of feints & false starts to try to hide when he is closing the distance. He will dig to the body with hard hooks, as well as hard low leg kicks. He has a nice check left hook and will throw a left hook to the head then to the body combination. He has strong body & head kicks as well and is always throwing volume, keeping the pressure & pace high on opponents. In close range, he does a great job of throwing uppercuts & body shots mixing it up & making it hard to know if the shots are coming to the body or head. He didn’t react well IMO to being backed up when he fought Alcántara. He backed up against the cage and allowed Alcántara to land some clean shots before panic wrestling & getting caught in a nasty armbar. Sandhagen is getting a massive step up in competition here, and with 4 consecutive KO/TKO wins he should have a lot of confidence. He has never been finished and has only lost one fight via decision.
Sandhagen is a solid wrestler, and strong in the clinch. He does a good job of backing fighters up to the cage when he gets his combinations going. He will throw nasty knees to the head & body from the Muay Thai clinch. He will throw nice standing elbows in the clinch and does a good job of disengaging with spinning elbows & back fists. He has a good, single leg takedown, and doubles against the cage. Against Alcántara he showed incredible resolve on the ground. He had his arm fully extended, in a deep armbar, and refused to tap. He ultimately was able to get out of it and landed some brutal ground & pound before getting the finish in round 2. He was able to stand up in Iuri’s guard and land nasty straight punches. He does a good job of floating and being able to keep his opponent in a wrestling ride type position when they try to belly down & stand up. He finished Alcantara in that position with heavy shots. Sandhagen can go 3 rounds with ease, get hurt & recover, and overall just has phenomenal cardio. Sandhagen needs to be extremely sharp here. He has to be constantly moving & trying to snipe Lineker. I feel he should use a lot of leg & front kicks to the body, along with straight punches and angle off. He can’t back up in straight lines & can’t back himself to the cage. He has some tools that could cause Lineker issues & I see why the line is close. If Sandhagen can move, angle and keep Lineker at range he has a great chance to win.
This is my favorite fight on the card and I can’t wait to watch it. Lineker brings the fight every time he steps into the cage and every punch he throws is intended to knock his opponents head into the stands. He packs one of, if not the hardest punch in that 135 lb division and he can knockout anybody if he lands the right punch. Sandhagen has looked super impressive since he joined the UFC. He is well-rounded and if he takes this fight to the ground he should have the edge there. He also strikes at a higher pace on the feet and is more accurate, with better defense. I think as long as Sandhagen doesn’t get knocked out, he should win this fight. Lineker does put fear into opponents with his power so maybe that could mess with Sandhagen and he doesn’t bring the typical output he usually does to fight, but from what I have seen I think this line should be flipped and Lineker’s best shot at the win is a KO. I will take Sandhagen to pull off the upset here. I think he could get a submission, or even a knockout of his own, but I will pick him to win over the course of 15-minutes.
This is a fight I am going to target heavily. This will for sure be in more than half of my lineups and I am thinking it will be closer to 75%. My preferred play is Sandhagen and it is hard to ignore his DK scores. He averages 120.5 DK points and has scored over 100 in all of his fights. I do think this could be his lowest scoring fight so far even if he does win, but I love the ceiling he brings to the table. I like him in all formats and I will be overweight to him in GPPs. I do think he leaves his chin out and plays around a bit too much and that would be a bad idea against Lineker. Lineker can very easily end this fight with one hard punch in round 1 and if he does that at $8.5k then he probably ends up on that $25k lineup. I want to be in line with the field if not overweight with my Lineker lineups. Especially since I am going heavy on Sandhagen, I don’t want to be burned with a 1st round loss and not have Lineker exposure. I wouldn’t talk you out of using Lineker in cash games but for me he is GPP only. If I was making 10 lineups I would probably have 4-5 Sandhagen and 2-3 Lineker. I do expect this to be an awesome fight and if there is a finish then I think the winner ends up on the $25k lineup. If there is no finish and it is a back and forth, close split decision type fight, I will probably lose ~75% of my lineups because I don’t think that would put either on the optimal.
Winner – Cory Sandhagen via Unanimous Decision
Ion Cutelaba $8,300 vs Glover Teixeira $7,900
Ion Cutelaba
Age: 25
Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: CSA Moldova
From: Moldova
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 35
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Ion Cutelaba comes in the favorite here against aging legend Glover Teixeira. This is a sizeable step up & the best fighter Cutelaba has ever fought. Teixeira was able to beat both Jared Cannonier & Misha Cirkunov, who defeated Ion Cutelaba. Cutelaba is coming off back to back first round KO’s & has a lot of confidence & momentum coming in here. Cutelaba is a beast & extremely aggressive early on. He has 11 KO/TKO’s all in round one. He is fast & explosive early. He has a nice one-two and will throw an overhand right from hell. When he gets inside he will let his hooks go in combination with vicious power. He will throw wide hooks & overhands in close range, while mixing in uppercuts. He will attack the body with straight punches & hooks. He doesn’t throw many kicks, but he will occasionally throw oblique kicks to the knee & low kicks. He will occasionally throw a round house kick to the body. He doesn’t have a lot of attacks & can go to the well too much with the same strikes. Opponents can start to get a beat on his spinning attacks & cleanly counter him. He can struggle to find his range at times & gets gun shy when countered. Against both Jared Cannonier & Misha Cirkunov, he was coming up short consistently with wild looping shots & crazy spinning back fists. He was getting countered very clean by both & was there to be hit. The intimidation tactics & trying to break his opponent mentally is going to have no effect on Teixeira either and may just be a waste of energy. He does have a good chin & can take a beating. He has 11 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished.
Cutelaba is not a bad grappler. He is a Greco Roman wrestler, and a Moldovan National Champion in judo & sambo. He has solid double leg takedowns & is explosive with his entries. He is strong in the clinch, has solid body locks & throws. He has nasty knees to the body & elbows to the head in the clinch. He was able to finish Antigulov with clinch strikes in his last match. He will only look to grapple mainly when he is losing the stand up. When he can cement opponents on the mat he will unload with big G&P. Overall, he doesn’t have the greatest top control. When he is fresh he has solid takedown defense, but as he gets tired he becomes easier to takedown. The way he strikes, exploding in with huge shots, makes the takedowns available if you can time them. He tends to gas very badly in round 2 & 3. His attacks come much more labored & are very obvious. Jared Cannonier was able to walk him down with his hands down & dominate him in round 3, and Cirkunov finished him with an arm triangle in the third. 13 of his 14 wins are in round one. Cutelaba doesn’t have a bad guard. He does have 2 omaplata submissions early on in his career. He will trap a wrist & does a decent job of maintaining & staying safe in his guard. He will use submission attempts to scramble back to his feet. He still lacks structure on the feet & is very wild. He doesn’t fight with a pace sustainable for 3 rounds, he’s improving, but still needs work. He is still training in Moldova & I feel someone with his attitude & athleticism could improve rapidly. He is very dangerous in round one & willing to deal out punishment, but to be honest, overall, I’m not too impressed with him. He needs to try to be aggressive early & go for broke. He has to get inside, let his shots go and try to take Glover out early. He needs to make Teixeira pay for takedown attempts & maybe try to take him out with elbow & clinch knees. I don’t see him having much success in the later rounds, especially the third.
Glover Teixeira
Age: 39
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Teixeira MMA & Fitness
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 11-5
Fight Matrix: 8
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Glover Teixeira proved he is still extremely dangerous last time out. He entered the underdog facing another young up & coming knockout artist & submitted him in round one. Teixeira was hurt badly and recovered to get the finish. He is older, but he still is motivated & has the will to fight. He is diminishing a bit physically, but he is still capable of taking many fighters out. Teixeira will plod forward & look for boxing combinations. He sets most of his offense up off the jab. He will throw a jab, left hook, and nice one-twos. He has a nice jab, overhand right & jab, right hook combination. His straight-right hand is clean & powerful. He will throw a left hook, straight-right hand combination. He will rip the body with big hooks, & then go up to the head. The body shots help disguise his takedown entries. He isn’t nearly as fast as he once was and doesn’t have the head movement he used to have. He is much more stationary & easy to hit. He doesn’t move his head off center line & fighters have been able to slip his jab & counter with uppercuts. He has a nice uppercut himself & times it well to counter opponent’s takedown attempts. When he gets inside he is still very dangerous. He will unload with nasty hooks to the body & head, with cracking power. His ability to take a shot is diminished, but he still has a solid chin. He was rocked badly in his last match but recovered quickly. He has 17 KO/TKO’s himself and has been finished 3 times in his career.
Teixeira is an awesome grappler. He has great dirty boxing in the clinch, attacking the body & head with big punches. He is a strong wrestler with a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He has a great single leg in space. He does a good job of using the single to push opponents to the cage, change it to a double & dump his opponents. He has good doubles against the cage & body lock trips. He was rocked badly with big elbows, when he was in on a double in his last fight. Teixeira has great top control. He likes to get half guard and keep his weight heavy on opponents. He will look for arm triangles, while landing short elbows & hammerfists. He will methodically pass to mount, and then the back where he can finish the fight. He is excellent at flattening his opponents out and pounding them out or getting a RNC. He will also move to side control & look for the crucifix position. He has great takedown defense, he digs good underhooks & has a nice sprawl. He will defend the takedown with a guillotine attempt & he has a great squeeze. He does a great job of controlling the legs when he wraps up the neck, giving him the ability to roll into top position. Teixeira has 6 submissions & has never been submitted. He is going to be the bigger, more experienced fighter. He has good cardio. Teixeira was supposed to fight Cutelaba in January, so this is his second training camp for him so I’m sure he has a solid game plan. Teixeira is going to be the better overall fighter here. He needs to be technical with his striking. He should use smart pressure to draw out attacks from Cutelaba & counter. I think he will be able to land his jab & straight, and if he can counter & hurt Cutelaba, he is a finisher. Cutelaba was caught clean with a lot of shots against Cannonier & Misha, he cannot take those shots against Teixeira. I think early, Glover should try to strike & stay safe, but as Cutelaba slows down, look for takedowns. I think if the fight goes past the middle of round one, Glover probably will be able to get a single & we will see if Cutelaba can get up. I think if Glover can takedown Ion in round 2 or 3 he could finish a more tired fighter.
If this was Glover in his prime, then he would be a big favorite here. Since it is 39-year-old Glover who has been knocked out a few times, he is the underdog. Even with Cutelaba being the favorite here, I think its KO or bust for him. Glover is the better fighter of the two and if he can get the fight to the ground then he should have a decent edge. I do think he will look to get the fight to the ground as well. If you are wanting to bet Ion here, I would wait for the TKO prop and hope you get + odds on that. Otherwise, this is a dog or pass fight for me. I do think a round 1 KO from Cutelaba is a likely possibility, but if he can’t get it I think that Glover wins this fight. I do think Glover is smart and knows that all the danger in this fight is in the striking department and he should look to get the fight to the ground early. If he can do that then he can lock up a submission, but it will also wear on Cutelaba and take away from that KO power as the fight goes on. I think the longer this fight goes the more it shifts into Glover’s favor. I will take the upset here and I think he gets it done by a RNC submission.
On DraftKings, this is another fight that will be in more than half of my lineups and I will be pretty evenly split on the two. I will say Teixiera is my preferred play because he is the underdog. He does have 1st round finish potential as well. However, I think he is capped around 100 points and I think Cutelaba would get over 100 with a knockout win. I don’t think it would be smart for Glover to stand with Cutelaba and if he does I think he likely gets knocked out and Cutelaba scores 105 or so points. If Tex gets the round 1 win then I think it would be a from a submission and that might not even get him to 100 DK points if that is the case. The 10 points from the potential knockdown(s) from Cutelaba are what I think gives him his ceiling and I might even end up with slightly more exposure to him. I am not sure how it will end up turning out, but I would guess I am close to 30% ownership on both guys here. We do have some value on Tex with him being an underdog on DK but his betting line being flipped to a slight favorite. I think that value does put him in play in cash games, but his floor is still 0 and I don’t like that for my cash lineups. I would probably stick to GPP only for this fight, but I do think it will be an important mid-range fight to target.
Winner – Glover Teixeira via 1st round Submission
Alex Oliveira $8,800 vs Mike Perry $7,400
Alex Oliveira
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 77”
Gym: ATS Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record:
Fight Matrix:
Last Fought:
Last Five:
Current Streak:
Alex Cowboy Oliveira will be looking to bounce back after a loss to Gunnar Nelson. He had a strong first round but was ultimately mounted, busted open & submitted. The cut he took was nasty & we have to monitor if he starts to cut much easier now. Oliveira is a bad mother fucker. He is an aggressive southpaw who always puts on epic fights. Oliveira is a seriously explosive athlete. He doesn’t use a lot of setups and throws everything into all his shots. He has implemented a couple leg kicks into his game in his last two fights. He has a nasty straight-right hand. He is good at framing with his lead hand to gauge distance & then dropping it down the pipe quickly. He uses a long karate style stance & is always moving in & out before exploding in with combinations. He will explode in with straight & hook punch combinations, that are vicious. He will explode in with a lead left hook. He will try to pull opponents into straight or overhand right counters. He throws a lot of kicks, and usually starts the fights off with kicks. He will throw nice front & round kicks to the body. He will switch stances, but he doesn’t have a ton of offense from southpaw. He will throw lead leg hook kicks & front kicks to the body from that stance. He is excellent at catching kicks & returning with shots or getting a takedown. He can be timed when he comes in and has taken a ton of damage in recent fights. He is very aggressive & when you are trying to give punishment, you are going to have to take some. He can lack discipline in fights & sometimes looks like he has no game plan whatsoever on the feet. He can also get himself out of position by overextending at times. He needs to have more of a game plan & not be so willing to go to war against a knockout artist like Mike Perry. He had his nose broken badly by Yancy Medieros & cut open like a can of beans vs Gunnar Nelson. He is very tough & can take a shot. He has only been TKO’d one time in his career, in his war with Yancy. He has big knockout power & only needs one clean shot to finish the fight. He has 12 career KO/TKO’s.
Oliveira is nasty in the clinch. He does a great job of controlling a wrist & coming over the top with brutal elbows & knees to the body. He can finish the fight from that position. He is extremely physically strong & can man handle & control opponents against the cage while zapping their energy. He will look to get body lock & duplex takedowns but isn’t a technical wrestler. He uses a lot of strength & muscles fighters to the mat. He is strong on top & aggressive with ground & pound. He has nasty hammerfists & elbows. He is very good at using his frame to stand up in opponent’s guards to land big shots. He has good takedown defense in the clinch. He will attack with big elbows & does a good job of digging underhooks & reversing the position. He isn’t great at defending wrestling shots from range and can be beaten in wrestling scrambles. Off his back he is not very good. He tries to muscle his way out of positions, and it can work at times, but it can also allow opponents to advance position. He also tends to give his back when he’s trying to stand up. He is good at defending from the back & getting wrist control to turn in. He was able to reverse Gunnar Nelson’s back control & landed some big shots from the guard. He was able to land big hammerfist shots even when Nelson was on his back. Oliveira has 4 submissions and has been submitted 4 times. Oliveira is going to be the much faster fighter. I feel the speed & movement of Oliveira may give Perry problems. I think the front kicks & leg kicks could help Cowboy if he is to get a KO.
Mike Perry
Age: 27
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: Fusion X-Cel
From: Florida
UFC Record: 54
Fight Matrix:
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Mike Perry needs a win here. His star is quickly dimming with 3 losses in his last 4 fights. He will once again be fighting in Florida & trying to bounce back in his home state after laying a dud against Max Griffin. Mike Perry is still an extremely dangerous power house, who can put anyone’s lights out & he will be getting a willing dance partner in Cowboy Oliveira. He is back at his original gym Fusion X-Cel for this camp after a stint at Jackson-Wink. Perry is a bruiser, he wants to walk opponents down, and put his hands on them. He has one shot knockout power & has some brutal UFC knockouts. He fights much more conventional & isn’t the same athlete Oliveira is. He has a decent jab & nice one-two. His right hand has big knockout power, especially his overhand & hook. He will throw a straight-right hand to a left hook combination. He will mix in lead elbows & upper cuts in close range. He will attack the body with jabs & straight-rights. He will throw oblique kicks to the legs & lead leg hook kicks. He can get very static & just stand in one spot without throwing much, leaving him open to be hit. He is heavy on his lead leg & very hittable. He has been dropped in multiple UFC fights & his chin has taken a beating. He has always had a speed issue & struggled with fighters who use footwork & movement. He is willing to eat shots to give his own and won’t ever quit. Even if he’s dropped he will get back up & continue to move forward. Perry has 11 KO/TKO’s in 12 wins. He has never been finished with strikes.
Perry is an underrated grappler. He is pretty explosive closing the distance into the clinch. He disguises his entries with punches & is strong in the clinch. He has good cage control & will attack with nasty knees & elbows. He has multiple finishes in the clinch in the UFC. When he is in close range like that, he doesn’t have to find opponents & it only takes one. He has decent body locks & double legs. He is very strong in the clinch, will get in on a single, elevate & slam opponents. He has good ground & pound, decent top control & floating ability. He will look to take the back. If he can get top position, I could see him taking the back, but more likely landing a potential fight finishing shot off a break or in the clinch. He has good takedown defense, and I haven’t seen much off his back. He was submitted by Donald Cerrone in his last fight and showed some green-ness on the ground. That was the first time he was finished in his career. Perry has never gotten a submission. Perry needs to somehow close the distance, or time Oliveira coming in. I think if he can get inside, and be the stronger fighter in the clinch, he could win the fight that way. I could see him landing some big shots off the break & even look for a takedown. If he can get on top, he should look to take Cowboy’s back. He always has the chance to land that one fight ender as well.
Mike Perry is taking this fight on late notice, but he is from Florida and that is where this card is taking place. I expect the fans to be on Perry’s side here, but I am not even sure that matters. I think if this fight goes all 3-rounds than Oliveira is the likely winner even if the crowd cheers for every Perry shot that lands. I think Oliveira is the better overall fighter and he has the ground game in his back pocket if needed here. I think it is KO or bust for Perry, but he is very live for that KO. There is no line for Perry by TKO yet, but I think if you want to bet on Perry that would be the way to do it and get a better line. I am going to pick Oliveira as my pick here and he could get it done by KO, submission, or a decision. I am not sure how he will get it done but I do think he is the rightful favorite here.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is actually Perry. I think he has the easier path to the $25k and that is with a knockout. If he wins this fight it will be from a knockout. I don’t see him beating Cowboy in a decision and Cowboy is going to have a big edge on the ground. I am going to be spreading a lot of my exposure between the Perry – Sandhagen range and ideally, I’ll be overweight on all of them. I of course want exposure to Cowboy as well, but I don’t see me being able to go overweight on him. I will probably have 20% or so but I think he will be closer to the 30% range for the field ownership. I wouldn’t talk you off going overweight on him if that is what you want to do, he has many paths to victory here. I just don’t see him fitting into a lot of my lineups and I think other people in the $9k range have higher ceilings. I think both sides could be used for cash games, but this is likely a GPP only fight for me. If I was making 10 lineups I would probably go 3 Perry and 2 Cowboy.
Winner – Alex Oliveira via Unanimous Decision
Greg Hardy $9,300 vs Dmitrii Smoliakov $6,900
Greg Hardy
Age: 30
Height: 6’5
Weight: 264
Reach: 80.5”
Gym: ATT
From: Florida
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 213
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-1
Current Streak: L1
Greg Hardy is going to try to move past the debacle of what was his UFC debut. He was a huge favorite, en route to losing a fight by decision, but landed an illegal blow and was disqualified. He is once again a co main event, so the UFC must still see some value in him. Hardy will throw one-twos & has a decent body jab. He has a nice uppercut. He is still green with his defense, he will exit with his chin up at times & leaves himself vulnerable to shots. No one has been able to exploit it yet, and to exploit it you have to be willing to potentially exchange with him. In his last match, it was the first time he was pushed & extended past the first round and he didn’t look great. He did show heart and the ability to battle, but he badly gassed. He starts very quickly & tries to take opponents out. When he lands, he hits hard & knocks opponents out. He is going to have a big speed & power advantage here. In his 4 fights he has 3 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes.
Hardy is physically going to be much bigger & stronger than Smoliakov. In his last match he showed solid takedown defense. He was able to move his hips back & has a decent sprawl. He is very strong in the upper body clinch & will muscle his way out of positions. He doesn’t look for takedowns himself & I haven’t seen him in top position. He has no submissions & I’m not sure his belt rank in BJJ. Hardy is going to start quickly & try to knock Dmitrii out. He is fast & I see him wanting to try to explode in with combinations & exploit the way Dmitrii backs up with his chin high in a straight line.
Dmitrii Smoliakov
Age: 34
Height: 6’3
Weight: 257
Reach: 74”
Gym: Baltic Challenge Team
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-2
Fight Matrix: 238
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Dmitrii Smoliakov is still in search of his first UFC win. He went 0-2 and was cut, got a victory and now is being brought back here against Hardy. It’s rather obvious he’s being brought in to take a loss here and is going to try to play spoiler. Smoliakov is not very impressive. He is very slow & stiff, with limited striking & grappling skills. He will throw jabs & leg kicks. He holds his hands super low & is just not a good athlete. He will close the distance with straight punch combinations. When he gets pressured, he will back up in a straight line & lean back, leaving his chin right in the air. He will throw sloppy overhands & spinning back fists.
Smoliakov isn’t a great grappler. His takedown defense is not bad, but when opponents get their hands connected, they can manhandle him. He will counter takedown attempts with guillotines, but has terrible technique, and isn’t going to get that against any decent opponent. When he gets taken down his Jiu-Jitsu is extremely lacking. He lays flat on his back, doesn’t move or control posture well, and gets beat up. He will try to throw punches from his back instead of defending himself, and most likely is a white belt in BJJ. I really haven’t seen him wrestle much, and his cardio is not good. He isn’t explosive & I don’t see him as someone who’s going to be able to close the distance into a body lock or shoot from distance effectively. He seems to be not physically strong, and fighters can out muscle him in the clinch. I haven’t seen much of Smoliakov’s top game, but I imagine that’s what he will try to do here. He is going to be at a severe speed & power disadvantage on the feet & striking with Hardy isn’t a wise decision for him. He did get a kimura in his last match. Smoliakov has 5 career submissions. He has only defeated one fighter in his career with a winning record & this is a much bigger spot than he has ever been in. He is a co main event & going to get a lot of attention due to his opponent. A win would be massive for his career. He needs to try to get top position somehow & exploit Hardy on the ground. I just don’t see many avenues on the feet where he will have success. I haven’t seen much from him on top, but he has 5 submissions & he should try to get another one here.
The UFC is really trying to build up Greg Hardy. They are giving him the easiest possible matchup for him and in his UFC debut he blew it by landing an illegal knee and getting DQ’d. Skill wise, this is another easy fight for Hardy and I think the -320 betting line may even be generous if we are just comparing skill vs skill. However, Hardy is not the sharpest tool in the shed and he could totally find a way to throw this fight away too. On the feet, I don’t see this fight being close and I fully expect Hardy to get a knockout in round 1 or 2. I just can’t risk more than 3/1 on against anybody at this point. Smoliakov’s best path to victory here would be to put Hardy on his back and try to win with a submission or ground and pound. He is just not a high-level fighter and I think Hardy probably gets back to his feet if he is taken down. I would rather use Hardy in a parlay than bet Smoliakov straight, but this is going to be a pass fight for me.
Hardy is my preferred play here and he has the highest ITD odds on the card at -222. This is a set up fight for him to get a knockout and I think that is most likely going to happen in the first round. That should put Hardy over 100 points and I am interested in that. Hardy is going to be one of my top plays of the week, but he is GPP only for me. If he doesn’t get a finish he won’t score highly. He also might get another DQ… I wouldn’t feel safe putting him in cash games, so I would prefer Hill and/or Roberts over him in that format. I do think Hardy has a higher ceiling than those two though and I will get my exposure to him by being overweight in GPPs. I really have no interest in Smoliakov here, but I am sure I will have at least 1 lineup as a hedge because I will have 50 or more lineups this week. If you are making 20 or less lineups I would just full fade him. If you don’t want to roster Hardy, then just fade the fight and the ownership that comes with it.
Winner – Greg Hardy via 1st round (T)KO
Jacare Souza $8,900 vs Jack Hermansson $7,300
Jacare Souza
Age: 39
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 72”
Gym: Fusion X-Cel
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 9-3
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Jacare Souza is a legend of the sport. He is coming off an epic knockout win over Chris Weidman and has been promised a title shot with a win here. Jacare is a very strong, physical Middleweight. He will slowly walk you down and doesn’t use a lot of footwork or lateral movement. He likes to really sit down on his right hook and put a lot of power into it. He will lunge into hooks to close the distance and get the clinch. He will rip to the body with big shots & really attacked the body of Chris Weidman effectively. He will throw front kicks to the body to a left hand or a right hook. He has powerful kicks and even if he lands on the guard, he can stun you. He knocked Derek Brunson out with a head kick. He is not the fastest guy on the feet, and that can be exploited. His last fight, he did an excellent job of bringing very heavy pressure even after getting hurt and throwing his all into his shots. He obviously maintained his power & landed a brutal shot that knocked out Weidman late in round 3. He has a good chin and showed it in his last fight but took a ton of damage and he was finished vs Robert Whitaker. He has seven knockouts himself.
Jacare is one of the best Jiu-Jitsu fighters in MMA history and actually a pretty strong wrestler. He has strong double legs, especially against the cage and he does a good job of setting it up with his overhand right. He likes to get in the clinch against the cage, and he is very strong there, he has nice trips and good judo throws. He has good takedown defense himself, but it isn’t tested very much as fighters are hesitant to go to the ground with him. Souza has one of the best top games in the sport. He has phenomenal passing ability and will move through opponent’s guards like butter. He likes to move to half guard where he will look for arm triangles and has good control before moving to side control where he has a nasty kimura. He has great back takes and very good back control. If he gets on top, his opponents are usually not getting up. Jacare needs to close the distance in this fight and keep heavy pressure on Hermansson. Even if he isn’t effective with takedowns, he should try them to create striking opportunities. If he can get Hermansson on the back foot I could see him getting him down & taking him out. I don’t care how good Hermansson’s grappling has looked of late, if Jacare gets on top of him with time to work a finish is likely coming.
Jack Hermansson
Age: 30
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: Frontline Academy
From: Sweden
UFC Record: 6-2
Fight Matrix: 11
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Jack Hermansson is taking the middleweight division by storm. This will be his 3rd fight in 4 months & he is just coming off beating David Branch March 30th. He was able to lock in a guillotine in less than a minute & took no damage. He had been pining for an opportunity like this for a while now. A main event vs a top 5 opponent, and we will see if he can capitalize on the moment. Hermansson is very big for the division. He uses a lot of lateral movement, staying light on his feet in & out. He has a very nice jab. He will jab to the body as well. He has a very nice counter left hook. He will throw a nice left hook, straight-right hand. He has nice leg kicks. He likes to throw a lot of oblique kicks to the knees, and front teips to the body. He has nice round kicks to the body. He does hold his lead hand low & I feel he could get clipped with overhands or head kicks. He can also get hit with straight shots as he enters and backs up in straight lines when he’s hurt. He has 11 KO/TKO’s, and only been finished 1 time by strikes also by Thiago Santos.
Hermansson is a strong grappler with a crushing top game. He uses the movement on the feet to frustrate opponents, get them over aggressive, and then duck under and get takedowns. He has great reactive double legs. He is also strong in the clinch and is able to muscle opponents to the ground. On top, he has a great top game. He has good guard passing and will quickly move to mount or the back, where he will try to finish the fight. He has nasty ground & pound punches & elbows and will flatten opponents out in the back mount and not let his opponents out of the position. He has good takedown defense, but opponents are able to land reactive double legs if they can time his kicks. Off his back he was quickly submitted by Cezar Ferreira, but then survived a super deep choke against Thales Leites. He looks to be improving with his Jiu-Jitsu defense and has a never say die attitude. He has gotten two quick guillotine choke finishes in a row & is riding a wave of momentum. He can’t get too confident in his grappling and try to play around down there too much with Jacare, because that’s a very dangerous game. He has 5 submissions & been submitted twice himself. His last 7 UFC fights have all been finished, and I don’t expect this fight to go to a decision either. Hermansson should look to be on his bike early and break down Jacare with long range attacks, throw a lot of jabs to the body, head, and front kicks to keep him at bay. Weidman had a lot of success with the jab in their match. If he can systematically break down Jacare with jabs, oblique kicks, and front kicks to the body, he could start to slow his forward pressure. I think the later the fight goes it favors Hermansson. I don’t advise trying to take Jacare down, but Hermansson top game is great & he may want to prove a point that he can hang with Jacare on the mat.
This was originally supposed to be a rematch between Souza and Yoel Romero but Yoel had to pull out and Hermansson took this fight on short notice after he got a quick win a few weeks ago. This is a fun fight but a big step up for Hermansson. Especially on short notice. Jacare isn’t an easy fight for anybody to prepare for and he is great everywhere. He is known for his amazing BJJ skills, but he has awesome stand up as well. Jack is well-rounded as well but not on the level of Jacare. I think he is tricky on the feet and he uses his movement well so he can have moments in the striking game, but I think a knockout would be his best shot at winning a striking match. He is going to be the faster fighter as well so that is probably where he has hit best shot of winning. He also has mean ground and pound, as well as a solid wrestling game to get the fight to that position. But it is dangerous taking Jacare to the mat and he could get submitted if he tries to go that route. I have to favor Jacare in this short notice fight and I think the 2/1 line is right. I don’t see this fight going all 5-rounds and I think at some point Jacare gets this fight to the mat and I see him submitting Hermansson with a choke or an arm lock.
This fight has the highest odds for FDGTD and that makes it my favorite fight to target on the week. I don’t see this going 5 rounds and at their prices, I would be pretty surprised if the winner wasn’t on the 1st place lineup. My pick here is Souza and I do think he wins. I will say he will be in my single entry GPP lineups this week too. However, I could see a win from him not putting him on the 1st place lineup. If this is a somewhat boring first two rounds and he gets a 3rd round or later finish, then he could be kicked off the optimal lineup with whatever score that would produce. I would be shocked if Hermansson wasn’t on the 1st place lineup with a win though. So, I am not sure who my preferred play is here, but I may end up having a bit more ownership to Hermansson at $7.3k. If I was making 10 lineups I would think I have 5 Hermansson and 4 Jacare. Something along those lines. It will be in the majority of my lineups and I will be split pretty evenly. I am aiming for 1st place so I am willing to throw away lineups to try and hit that right combo. That is what I will be doing here, and I don’t see that boring first two rounds actually happening, this should be a fun one. I will also likely stack this fight in cash games. You could go solo on either as well but I’ll likely just lock in the win and 100+ points and move on.
Winner – Jacare Souza via 2nd round Submission
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t takedown a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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