BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC 236 Location – Atlanta, Georgia
Thanks for purchasing my UFC 236 DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card in ATL. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a lot of money from this week and I can’t wait to chase those big prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at that $30k prize, and then I will probably take a couple of shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC 236 fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Brandon Davis $8,700 vs Randy Costa $7,500
Brandon Davis
Age: 28
Height: 5’10
Weight: 135 (Debut)
Reach: 72”
Gym: Alan Belcher MMA Club
From: Mississippi
UFC Record: 1-3
Fight Matrix: 159
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -170
Brandon Davis is getting one final shot here. He has lost two in a row in the UFC and needs a win here to keep his job. He is making his first ever drop to 135 lbs and will be a big 135er if he can make the weight properly. He is a country boy who trains at the Alan Belcher MMA Club in Mississippi. Davis is a pressure fighter & come forward striker. He has fast, straight punches and uses solid footwork and head movement to land and angle off. He has a nice front snap kick to the body and throws very nice leg kicks early and often. He should really look to throw heavy leg kicks early and often. He has a nice straight-right hand he can land and angle off. He has a nice lead hook and will use it to set up his leg kicks. His jab is fast and straight. His hands are fast, and he can land long range straight punching combinations with both hands. He is good at controlling the range, just sliding out of the way of your shots or catching them on the gloves and shoulder. He has a nice step-in knee. He can keep his hands low in the pocket after throwing sometimes and can get clipped. He doesn’t have knockout power, and really just focuses on out voluming his opponents. He has 3 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Davis isn’t a great grappler. If his opponents don’t give him the fight he wants, he can get impatient and start to chase them, where they can time him. He stands very tall and the double leg is there to get, but he does have heavy hips and does a decent job of getting double underhooks and disengaging. Against the cage, he isn’t nearly as good with his takedown defense. He will not fight hands well and lets opponents get their hands connected on the legs and people are able to take the back against him. He is patient and calm in those situations and does a good job of escaping when he sees openings, but he definitely needs to improve his clinch game against the cage and his takedown defense. Brandon Davis has very good cardio. Davis needs to try to make this fight a war. He has fast hands & when opponents brawl with him he has very good combinations. Most of the opponents that beat him have used movement & tried to take him down. He is most likely going to get to strike here. He needs to throw his punches in combination, keep the volume high and try to break Costa with combinations.
Randy Costa
Age: 24
Height: 5’10
Weight: 135
Reach: N/A
Gym: Lauzon MMA
From: Massachusetts
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-0
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +150
Randy Costa will be making his UFC debut. He is 4-0 & really hasn’t beaten any good competition. This is a massive step up. Only one of the four fighters he’s fought has a pro win, and his record was 5-9. He has only been a pro since 2018. He has been training at Lauzon’s MMA for about 3 years and fought 3 amateur fights in 2014. It is still a bit weird the UFC decided to pick him up so early in his career at only 4-0. Costa is a striker with 4 KO/TKO’s, all in round one. He has pretty good movement and can fight from both stances. He throws a lot of kicks & has very dangerous head kicks. He will throw nice body kicks, and a body kick to a left hook combination. He will throw a left hook, right hook combination, and likes to throw a lot of uppercuts. He will throw nasty round & question mark kicks to the head. He can throw them from both stances, with both legs & very quickly. He doesn’t have great hands. He has power, but he looks uncomfortable in boxing range. He will throw punches & drop his hands with his chin high. He was pressured in his last match & was able to land a straight-right hand counter that dropped his 0-1 opponent. He has finished all 4 of his wins very quickly and has had to face no adversity in the cage. He looks to be a pretty good athlete, but I have no idea about his toughness, durability or cardio.
Costa hasn’t shown much grappling in his career. He does train at Lauzons, so I’m sure he knows a few submissions. He was able to takedown an over aggressive opponent in his last fight and finish him quickly with G&P. I have seen him get taken down & stand back up against the cage one time, and also defend a single leg. Overall, those are the only grappling situations I have seen him in. Brandon Davis is a striker also, so I imagine we will get to see these guys strike. Costa is going to want to stay at range & fight behind his kicks. He is going to be looking to land that head kick or a big hook & put Davis down. He has never gone out of the first round & I expect him to be confident & aggressive once again here. He needs to avoid getting pressured & forced to fight in close range. If Davis can force this fight into boxing range, I could see him exploiting Costa’s defense.
Costa is a 4-0 prospect with all 4 of his wins coming via 1st round (T)KO. He is still very green, but he looks pretty decent. He seems to give it everything he has from the opening bell and it’s really his kicks that are the most impressive. He almost kicks too much though and against a brawler like Davis I don’t know if those kicks will be there for him. Davis should look to push Costa backwards and not give him the time or space to get his kicks off. I think Costa is the more likely fighter to win in round 1 but if Davis can weather the early storm then I think he takes over and wins late. I just haven’t seen enough from Costa yet to feel comfortable picking him here, so I have to side with the favorite and I think he gets a round 3 TKO.
On DraftKings, Davis is my preferred play. We have no idea what Costa’s cardio is going to look like here and Davis should put it to the test. He lands almost 5 strikes per minute and he throws almost 15. If he can survive the early storm, then I think he comes on late and if he can get a finish then he will pay off that salary no matter what round it comes in. The worry is that he goes to a decision and if he loses round one and wins the next two, he may not hit value. I will have some of him here, but I won’t be going heavy on him. I will have a few shares of Costa too because if he wins I think it will be early in the fight. If he wins with a round 1 KO, then he has a great chance of winning somebody $30k. I will avoid this fight in cash, but I will take shots on both sides for GPPs. This being the first fight of the night doesn’t hurt either with me deciding to use both sides. If I was making 10 lineups I would probably have 2-3 Davis and 1-2 Costa. If you are making 5 or less, you should just pick a side instead of taking shots at both.
Winner – Brandon Davis via 3rd round (T)KO
Poliana Botelho $8,900 vs Lauren Mueller $7,300
Poliana Botelho
Age: 30
Height: 5’8
Weight: 125(Debut)
Reach: 67”
Gym: Nova União
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 27(SW)
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -175
Poliana Botelho is moving up to 125 lbs. She was a favorite in her last fight against Cynthia Calvillo but dropped the ball and was submitted in the first round. She was one of the biggest fighters at 115 lbs & I feel she will be one of the bigger 125ers as well. Botelho is a power striker with 6 KO/TKO’s in 7 victories. Botelho is tall at 5’8 & uses a wide stance. She likes to slowly move forward, staying light on her feet, feinting in & out. She will throw hard leg & body kicks. Her round & front kicks to the body are very powerful. She will pump her jab out there, throw a front leg round kick to the body, to a jab, right hook combination. She will throw a jab, overhand right, along with wild looping hooks. She will close the distance with quick straight punches. She will throw hard spinning back kicks to the body. When she backs fighters to the cage, she will throw punches in combination & body kicks to keep opponents against the cage. She has no problem brawling in the pocket & she usually has the power advantage. Her stance leaves her very open to leg kicks & takedowns. She also can get hit with clean punches in combination, as she leans back. She can be low output & fighters can pressure her to the cage. Botelho also carries her power over the course of the fight, having a 3rd & 4th round KO/TKO. She has never been finished & can recover quickly. I have seen her get dropped before & come back to finish the fight herself.
Poliana Botelho isn’t an offensive grappler. She is a blue belt & not a fish out of water on the ground. I have seen her attempt double legs against the cage. I haven’t seen her work much in top position. Her stance makes it very easy for fighters to get ahold of her front leg & push her to the cage or take her down. Pearl Gonzalez was able to hold her against the cage for long periods of time in their fight but couldn’t take her down. She was more active than Pearl with elbows & punches to the head & body. She was not able to get her back off the cage. Fighters are also able to take her down off timing her kicks. She was able to stand up one time against Cynthia Calvillo but was submitted later in the first round via RNC. She has been submitted one time in her career & has never gotten a sub. She has good cardio & will come forward for all three rounds. Botelho is going to want to keep this fight on the feet & strike. I think she should try to stay long & attack the body with her kicks. I think she is the faster, better striker at range & will be able to dominate the fight at distance.
Lauren Mueller
Age: 27
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +155
Lauren Mueller is looking to bounce back after losing a fight as a huge favorite last time out. She was submitted by Yanan Wu in China. She will be welcoming Botelho to FW, and as a striker herself this should be a fun fight. Mueller is sloppy with her striking. She will just plod forward, with her hands low. She will move her head, but she is hittable. She will throw jabs, but they aren’t very effective. She will throw a left hook, followed by straight punches or hooks in combination. She will slip a punch & throw a nice overhand right. She will occasionally throw punches to the body. She will throw decent front & round kicks to the body. She will throw Superman punches & spinning back fists. She does throw hard. She only has 1 career TKO win, so she doesn’t have a ton of power, and or experience with only 6 fights.
Mueller is very good in the clinch, she lands hard knees to the body and the head. She has strong cage control, digs underhooks, and lands short shots. She likes to throw short elbows in that position, and then duck under for single legs. She will catch kicks & take fighters down. On top, she is very aggressive with G&P, and can lose position to try to land shots. She doesn’t have the best top control. She can be taken down herself & she was submitted in her last match. She hurt her opponent and was almost immediately armbarred after entering her guard. She showed zero defense & maybe thought her opponent was more hurt than she was. She is still green & mistakes like that in the UFC, can cost you fights. Her cardio is very questionable & she gasses in the third round. She is still very young in her career & attempting to bounce back from her first loss. I think Mueller should look to get this fight in the clinch & control Botelho against the cage. I’m not sure that she wants to go to the ground with Botelho or fight at range & it’s a tough fight stylistically.
Both fighters here are coming off 1st round submission losses in fights they were favored to win. I think Mueller is the better grappler of the two but Botelho should have a sizable edge on the feet. In my opinion, Botelho is one of the most dangerous strikers in the division and if she can keep this fight standing then I don’t think it will be all that close. I think she could get a TKO or win a clear decision if it stays standing. The worry here is her getting taken down and that should be what Mueller looks to do. I am not overly impressed with Mueller on the ground but that is her only path to victory in my opinion. I think Botelho will be able to stuff takedowns though and I see her overwhelming Mueller with strikes and I think she gets a TKO stoppage here. It could even be a standing stoppage where the ref has seen enough of Botelho teeing off on her against the cage, but I will say it happens in round 1.
On DraftKings, I do think Botelho is playable in all formats, but I prefer her more in GPPs. I will have exposure to her and I’ll likely be overweight to the field. I think she will need a finish to pay off her salary and I am not confident that she gets it, so if you want to go underweight on her that is fine as well. I will personally be taking a stand here and full fading Mueller. This could come back to bite me but there are too many other fighters with way higher ceilings that I would rather roster near her price range. She should be low owned so if you think she can get a win and you want to play her to gain leverage to the field, that is fine. Overall, I don’t think she is a great play.
Winner – Poliana Botelho via 1st round (T)KO
Montel Jackson $9,400 vs Andre Soukhamthath $6,800
Montel Jackson
Age: 26
Height: 5’10
Weight: 135
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: Pura Vida BJJ
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 20
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -500
Montel Jackson is looking to continue his ascend with a win over Andre Soukhamthath here. All the hardcore fans know Jackson by now, and the elite potential he has. He is one of the best athletes with a very unique frame for BW. He is coming off a very quick Darce choke finish of tough veteran, Brian Kelleher. Jackson is rapidly improving & I expect his performances to take big leaps every time we see him in the octagon. Jackson is blazing fast and has nasty kicks, knees and straight punches. He is a southpaw and has a nasty jab and straight-left hand. He does a great job of hand fighting with his front hand and then coming with his straight-left hand. He is very accurate with his punches and has big power. He has great distance control and does a great job of sliding in and out of range and countering with long range attacks. He has great front knees to the body and the head. He also will attack with lightning fast front kicks to the body and head. He has a nice round kick to the head and body, and his kicks come fast and without telegraph. He is at his best when he is coming forward and stalking his opponents to the fence, in space he is accurate and extremely dangerous, but can get out volumed. He has very good defense and rarely gets hit clean. He has a calmness about him and is always very aware and in the moment in the cage. He doesn’t get tired and is able to be just as effective with his striking in round 1 as round 3. He has big power with 6 KO/TKO’s in 8 wins & dropped Kelleher before submitting him in his last match. He has never been submitted.
Jackson is a great wrestler, he was training to wrestle in the Olympics before transitioning to MMA. He does a great job of getting in the clinch, circling to the back and getting slam takedowns. He also has very good, high crotch slams. He has unbelievable grip strength and is able to control the wrist in the clinch. He was able to control Ricky Simóns wrist in space with one hand, while punching with the other which I have never seen before that fight. He has nasty knees & elbows in the clinch. In top position, his length gives fighters big problems. He has the ability to posture easier & rain down big G&P as well as having long limbs for chokes. He has nice front chokes & guillotines. He has very good takedown defense and is hard to takedown and hold down. He does a great job of shucking off attempts, and limp legging out of single legs. He has very good hips and is extremely long, making him super hard to takedown in the clinch. He can get taken down with well-timed double legs and body locks and was grinded out by one of the best fighters IMO in the 135 lb division in Ricky Simón. He was able to reverse several takedowns of Simon and end up on top as well as earning takedowns himself and defending a majority of them. Jackson is very explosive and able to change position very quickly on top. Jackson’s wrist control makes it very hard for his opponents to get damage off on the mat. I think Montel is the better striker, but his easiest path to victory is to grapple. I think he should look to close the distance & get the fight to the ground. If he can get top position, I see him being able to easily control Andre & land big G&P. I think he can get the back & get a RNC or a front choke as Andre tries to stand up.
Andre Soukhamthath
Age: 30
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 72”
Gym: Lauzon MMA
From: Rhode Island
UFC Record: 2-3
Fight Matrix: 68
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +400
Andre Soukhamthath is a talented fighter. He is a great athlete, with a good skill set, and one punch knockout power. Soukhamthath is a pretty slick striker. He has a very nice jab, he throws it hard and stiff. He dropped Alejandro Perez with his jab three times in their fight. He has a nice check left hook, and left hook to the body. He will throw a jab, left hook to the body. He likes to try to get fighters to close the distance and pull counter with his straight-right hand. He has good power in his shots and can finish a fight with one shot. He has a very nice step-in uppercut, and when he walks forward and lets his shots go, he is dangerous. He has a nasty flying knee which he has knocked fighters out with previously in his career. He can get too involved in just trying to counter punch, and coast in fights he thinks he’s winning making them much closer than they should be. He has a great chin, showing that against O’Malley in which he took some massive shots. He struggled with finding his range in that fight & dealing with a long fighter. He will have to solve that puzzle here against Jackson. He has never been finished in his career. He has 8 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Soukhamthath will try to mix it up & grapple. His IQ is extremely poor in deciding when to strike & to grapple. This was most notable in his fight with Sean O’Malley. O’Malley broke his foot after throwing a kick & could no longer walk. He was hopping around the cage on one foot, and Soukhamthath was shooting takedowns. He could have just moved away, and the fight likely would have been over. In his last match with Jonathan Martinez, he was dominating the fight on the feet, but continuously would grapple when he had his opponent hurt. Soukhamthath did show some nasty clinch work in his last match. He was able to land nasty uppercuts, elbows & knees in the single collar clinch. He will shoot takedowns when his opponents are against the cage. He will also mix in nasty uppercuts & body shots in combination when fighters are against the cage. He isn’t great on top & doesn’t have good top control. Soukhamthath will close the distance and look for body locks. He drives his opponents against the cage and will look for trips. He will drop levels and try to get single legs. He likes to move into side control to land short ground & pound, but he isn’t devastating on top. He will look for guillotines, and chokes. His takedown defense is not great. When Martinez as able to take him down in his last match, he landed some big G&P. He can be controlled against the cage as well. He has 3 career submissions. His record in decisions over his career has been terrible. He is 2-6 in decisions. He tends to not do a great job of pacing himself & can gas himself out going too hard in round one. He does start quickly & is dangerous. Soukhamthath should be extra motivated, because Jackson is a hot name right now. Soukhamthath has a difficult matchup here. I think he needs to try to safely close the distance, get inside & force Jackson to fight at close range. He needs to throw boxing combinations, body, head & try to land a big shot and take Jackson out. He needs to avoid being on his back and staying at range with Jackson.
This is my most confident pick of the card and the biggest favorite as well. I think this is Jackson’s fight to lose and I would think a KO is the only way that happens. He should be the better fighter anywhere this fight goes, and he is the better wrestler, so he should be the one controlling where it takes place. I am very impressed with what I have seen from Jackson and I think he has a bright future. I think he can win with a KO here, but I will take him to win a dominant decision and I think he makes it look fairly easy and beats up Andre for 3 rounds.
Jackson is my most confident win on the card and that is what is going to make me load up on him here. Not so much how many points he will score, but I feel good about locking in this win. I think that makes him a lock for my cash lineup, but I will be overweight in GPPs too because there are so many live dogs on this card. I think Jackson is the better fighter everywhere here and he could get a KO or a sub and pay off his $9.4k price-tag. However, if he doesn’t get the finish then he might not end up on the optimal lineup. He does have the best ITD line on the card, so I will probably have him in about half my lineups, but if you want to just get your exposure in cash games that is fine as well. I think he will be in a ton of Poirier and Gastelum lineups, so you won’t be sneaky there at all by pairing Jackson with those guys. I think if you are using either or both of those underdogs then avoiding Jackson would be the contrarian move. I think using Jackson with Holloway or Adesanya is going to be the less owned move and that is probably what I will look to do more with my Jackson LUs. I will be full fading Soukhamthath here though and I think if you are making 20 or less LUs then I would suggest doing the same unless you want to use 1 as a dart throw hoping for a very low owned KO upset.
Winner – Montel Jackson via Unanimous Decision
Belal Muhammad $8,500 vs Curtis Millender $7,700
Belal Muhammad
Age: 30
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 71”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 5-3
Fight Matrix: 59
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -140
Belal Muhammad is looking to bounce back after a decision loss to Geoff Neal. He had won 4 in a row prior, so a win would most likely give him another top 15 opponent. Muhammad is a technically sound, well-rounded fighter. He has very crisp boxing. He has a great lead hand, nice jabs & left hooks. He will throw a jab, left hook combination. He has a solid one-two & will throw a jab, overhand right or an overhand right lead. He is good at slipping the jab & throwing an overhand right. He will throw one-twos to the body to a right hook to the head. In the pocket, he is very good. He can slip & return and picks his shots well. He has nice cheeky uppercuts in close range. He will use his jab to set up his right hand and right hook and will throw 8-10 punch combinations keeping super heavy pressure & volume on opponents. He does a great job of sliding out of the way of shots & countering with jabs & straight-right hands. He has nice inside, outside leg kicks. He will throw the occasional round kick to the body & front kicks to the head. He is not much of a kicker and is predominately a boxer. He is good at cutting off the cage, and safely getting inside with feints & fakes. He has great cardio & is usually the fighter controlling the center of the cage. He doesn’t have big power, and only has 4 career TKO’s. He has a very strong chin, and opponents will have to put him out cold to stop him. He has good ability to recover, and tie opponents up on the ground when they go for the finish. His cardio allows him to fully recover & start to put the pressure back on quickly. He has been KO’d only one time in his career.
Muhammad is the better grappler in this match. If he can’t get the takedown, he will still push opponents to the cage, and grind in the clinch. He has good knees to the body and will exit with spinning back fists & elbows. He does a good job of transitioning from a single to a double, getting his hands locked & dumping opponents. Muhammad is a strong wrestler. He has very good timing on singles & especially double legs. I expect a heavy dose of wrestling in this fight, due to the obvious weakness in Millender’s game on the ground. He has fast shots & good drive to finish. He almost took down Geoff Neal, but Neal showed incredible TDD. If Muhammad can time those same entries vs Millender, there is a high likelihood he’s putting him on his back. On top, he has solid control & good elbows. He also has good back takes. I highly doubt he will get put on his back here, unless he is dropped. He isn’t a submission threat with zero in his career. He has never been submitted himself. Muhammad needs to keep the pressure and stay in Millender’s face. He needs to use his punches to create grappling situations and try to wear on Millender. He can’t allow Millender to dictate the range & push him back. He needs to put Millender on his back & look for the finish, but more importantly keep top control & win the fight. He is extremely tough, but he gets dropped a lot & he needs to avoid striking for long periods of time here. I feel there is a clear path to victory for Belal & if his wrestling is effective he will win the fight.
Curtis Millender
Age: 31
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 78”
Gym: NOC Fight Team
From: California
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 36
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +120
Curtis Millender is returning very quickly after being submitted in the first round vs Zaleski Dos Santos. That fight was only about a month ago, but he took virtually no damage & has the desire to get that bad taste out of his mouth. He is a great striker but has now been exposed for having a very weak wrestling/ground game. He is a long, dangerous striker with a lot of weapons. He is dangerous with everything, punches, kicks, knees, and elbows. Millender has great distance control, and likes to pressure opponents, slowly slide out of range and time counters. He has a great jab, and strong leg kicks. He has a fast, straight-right hand, and throws nice counter uppercuts, and left hooks. He has nasty kicks, great front & round body kicks. He is a very tricky striker and is always looking to set up a knee or a nasty high kick. He finished Thiago Alves with a nasty knee and had two TKO head kick finishes before that. His defense is nice, and he changes it up. He will use good slips and head movement at times to avoid shots and come back with counters. He does a good job of hand fighting and coming over the top with shots. He does a good job of staying patient and forcing opponents to come to him, so he can try to walk fighters into something. He stands very tall and almost square right in front of opponents, which makes him dangerous from both sides, but also makes him easy to takedown and easy to clinch and push against the cage. He sometimes can get caught standing too tall with his hands low on the second or third punch in a combo and I think that’s were Muhammad could possibly catch him. He will throw some interesting techniques in close range, like front elbows, and hammerfists. He has nasty step-in knees to the head & body. He can get his knee to the target extremely fast. He seems to start slow & then pick it up as the fight continues. He lost the first round to Kevin Holland & Max Griffin before winning the decisions. He seems to have poor fight IQ when he has someone hurt. He rocked Kevin Holland badly & then awkwardly attempted a spinning attack that gave Holland his back. He dropped Thiago Alves with an uppercut in round one, and walked away like he won, and ended up not getting the finish when he probably could have. He has 6 KO/TKO’s, and is a big, strong WW with a great chin, never being finished by strikes.
Millender is an improving grappler, and dangerous in the clinch. He has nasty knees to the body & the head, and great elbows & uppercuts in close. He will throw a flurry of elbows & knees in the clinch and can hurt and finish fighters in that position. I still feel he can improve how he deals with forward pressure. He tends to stand too tall, and will try to counter moving backwards, but if he doesn’t land, fighters are clinched up with him against the cage or taking him down. Max Griffin was able to land an overhand into a takedown and control Millender on his back rather easily. Millender doesn’t seem to have much off his back and just tries to control posture and not take damage. He was submitted extremely quickly by Zaleski Dos Santos & looked like a fish out of water on the ground. He did get a nice body lock takedown against Griffin, and if he can get on top he is dangerous. He will unload with a barrage of hammerfists and will attack with elbows to the body as well. He has great cardio and can go for 3 rounds easily. He has been submitted 3 times. He has no career submissions. Millender is going to want to go forward, keep Muhammad at the end of his shots & try to use uppercuts & knees to counter takedown attempts. I think Millender will have a clear striking advantage & if he can avoid being put on his back he will win the fight.
Millender just fought a month ago and was really exposed on the ground. He is a great striker, but his weakness is definitely the ground game. Muhammad is a decent striker himself, but he is a solid wrestler/grappler and that is going to be his best path to victory here. I also heard from sources that he will be looking to get this fight to the ground early and often because he knows that is Millender’s weakness. If he is unsuccessful with the takedowns and he is stuck standing the whole fight, then I think Millender is the more likely winner in a pure standup battle. However, I do think Muhammad will hold his own on the feet and I think he will be able to get takedowns. That is what I think gets him the win here and maybe he could even lock up his first submission victory. I am going to lean with him getting it done on the scorecards with takedowns in every round, but it will be a sweat while this fight is on the feet.
On DraftKings, Muhammad is my preferred play and I like him in all formats. He will be the fighter looking for takedowns and I think he looks for them a lot here. I don’t know what kind of ceiling he has here, but I think he gets about 10x and that is fine with me. It is not something I want to be super overweight on, but I will for sure have exposure to him and I may be in line or slightly overweight to the field. Millender will be a GPP play only for me. He needs to keep this fight standing to win and he needs a KO to score highly. Not something I want to invest a lot in, but I will take a few shots because I am MMEing. If you are making 1-5 lineups, then Millender would be an easy fade for me.
Winner – Belal Muhammad via Unanimous Decision
Boston Salmon $8,600 vs Khalid Taha $7,600
Boston Salmon
Age: 28
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR (Inactivity)
Last Fought: 1 Year 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -135
Boston Salmon will be making his much-anticipated UFC debut. He hasn’t fought since 2017 and has had his first three UFC fights canceled due to injury. He was supposed to fight Taha in November, but it was rescheduled due to Taha tearing his ACL. I’m not sure how early to the date Taha tore his ACL, but it doesn’t seem like a ton of recovery time in my opinion. Salmon is a tough Hawaiian prospect fighting out of Xtreme Couture. Salmon is a technical, southpaw striker. He is very clean with his technique and has big power in his punches. He has a nasty straight-left hand & overhand left. He is always looking for it & controls distance with it well. He has a sick right hook & uppercut. He will throw a straight-left hand, right hook combination. His check right hook is nasty & he can drop opponents with that as well. He will attack the body with straight punches & hooks. He is very composed & while he usually is always going forward, he’s staying at his range. He cuts the cage off well & is very good countering & defensively. He is very fast with his hand speed & has good shot selection, varying it up well body, head. He rarely throws kicks, but he will throw the occasional leg kick & rare body or high kick. He can stick in the pocket & fighters can land counters, but he has shown a very strong chin. In his one career loss, it was one of the worst robberies in MMA history. As a striker, he is pretty high-level boxer with power & going to be a problem for a lot of UFC guys. Salmon definitely has power with 4 KO/TKO’s in 6 wins & dropping all 7 of his opponents. He has never been finished.
The way to beat Boston Salmon at this point in his career, is to close the distance, tie him up & make it a grimy fight. He can be controlled against the cage & fighters can land elbows & knees on him. He does do a decent job of circling off, or reversing and turning his opponent, but he has lost rounds through that in the past. That is also the easiest place to hit him without fear of return, and if he were to get hurt standing, I see it happening there or off a break. He has good takedown defense and is always just looking to sprawl & brawl and keep it on the feet. He is training at Xtreme Couture, which is a very strong grappling gym, so I’m sure he’s working hard on that aspect of his game. He is young & evolving, and it will be interesting to see his progression after this long layoff. I haven’t seen him much on top or off his back. He does have tremendous cardio. Salmon is going to want to keep this fight on the feet and use his boxing. He can fight very good moving forward & backwards, picking his shots, ripping to the body, and just dominating the fight. His ability to counter can freeze opponents and that’s exactly what he is going to try to do here. He is going to want to throw his check right hook and try to catch Taha as he closes the distance. He does have to be careful in the pocket, because Taha is dangerous if he can land clean.
Khalid Taha
Age: 26
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Tristar
From: Germany
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 224
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +115
Khalid Taha will be looking to get his first UFC win after a decision loss in his debut. He will be welcoming Boston Salmon to the octagon and will try to spoil the prospects plans. Taha has moved his camp to TriStar for this fight, so I expect him to be ready to go with a good game plan. Taha is a solid striker. He has heavy leg kicks, and a nice jab. He has nice one-twos. He will throw a very powerful straight-right hand lead. He will throw a lot of overhand rights. He will throw a left hook to the body, to a straight-left hand, right hook combination. He likes to throw front kicks to the body. He is fast, but he is a bit obvious and I feel Salmon is faster and will be able to counter him. Taha holds his left hand low & I see Salmon exploiting that. Taha is dangerous & inside will swing wild hooks and uppercuts. He hits hard & has to be respected on the feet. He has 7 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Taha is not a grappler, and this is going to be a standup fight. I haven’t seen him shoot any takedowns from range. I have seen Taha get a body lock takedown & have some top control from half guard. He attacked the body with knees & short punches, but couldn’t posture up, and do much damage. He does more damage with G&P from standing up when in opponent’s guards. He is solid at pressure passing directly into side control to look for the back. Overall, he won’t look to wrestle very often, and lost his last fight by being taken down. He is explosive & has decent get-ups, but his technique on his back isn’t great. Once he gasses, he doesn’t have the greatest ability to stand up. He was grinded out in his last match. He will use submissions if he’s in his guard to create scrambles to stand up. He got caught with a guillotine trying to stand up in a recent fight in Rizin. I don’t expect Taha to wrestle here, and if anything, I think Salmon may shoot. Taha has 3 subs and has been submitted once. Taha is much more of a brawler & going to want to make it that type of fight. He can’t match the technicality of Salmon, but if he can goad Salmon into a war he is dangerous & can knock opponents out. He is going to want to get inside & make it a pocket fight where he has a chance to land a big shot & put Salmon out.
I expect this fight to be another striking battle and it should be a fun one. I really like what I have seen from Salmon’s hands, he is still young in the sport and is still improving. Taha is a wild man and will be looking to end the fight with every strike he throws. He is a dangerous striker, so he could win with the striking, but I think a KO would be his best chance. I think Salmon is the more technical striker and I think he will be the one throwing and landing more shots. He could get a KO too but Taha is pretty tough and has never been knocked out. I think this fight goes all 3 rounds and I will lean with Salmon getting his hand raised by a clear 30-27 decision.
On DraftKings, I don’t love this fight. My preferred play is Salmon because I think he should win pretty clearly if he doesn’t get KO’d. However, I’m not sure how high his ceiling is because I don’t see him getting a KO and probably won’t land any takedowns. I think Taha is the better GPP play because he is wild, and he could land something hard and get the KO. If he can do that at his price, then he has a shot at making the $30k lineup. I think he has the easier path to that optimal lineup, but I think we are relying on a punchers chance for that to happen. I will have him in a lineup or two in case that happens, but I will probably have 1-3Taha and 2-4 Salmon out of my 50-75 lineups. If I was making 20 or less lineups I would probably just full fade this fight and hope it is a slower paced Salmon decision victory.
Winner – Boston Salmon via Unanimous Decision
Zelim Imadaev $8,200 vs Max Griffin $8,000
Zelim Imadaev
Age: 24
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: N/A
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 456
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -115
Zelim Imadaev is making his UFC debut against a multi UFC fight veteran, but he comes in the favorite. He is a Russian training out of Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas. This is Zelim’s first fight out of Europe, but due to being 8-0, and training in the USA I don’t see that as a big factor. Zelim is a wild striker, with 8 KO’s in 8 wins. He is very dynamic & uses a lot of flying/spinning attacks, and kicks. He hasn’t fought in over a year & that fight was only 13 seconds long. He has also fought very low-level competition. He is very aggressive & likes to try to intimidate his opponents. There will be no glove touching in this one. It is hard to find a lot of footage of him. From what I’ve seen he likes to stalk opponents to the cage & go for the kill. He has nice inside, outside leg kicks, & big power in his punches. He throws a lot of wide hooks & jab, overhand rights or jab, right hooks. He has one punch knockout power in his left & right hook. He is open to be countered, but he trusts his chin & power & usually ends up hurting his opponents if they decide to exchange. He loads up on strikes & can be very obvious. He will throw a lot of flying knees to close the distance. He also does a good job of grabbing the head, pulling it down & jumping into a flying knee to try to finish his opponent. I have seen him taken down off the knee, but he is good at getting up & reversing to top position. He does a good job of feinting to create openings for spinning back fists & elbows. He can be pushed back & I feel fighters who can stay calm will be able to counter with tighter punches. I haven’t seen him be put in much danger in fights & couldn’t find his fight that went into round 3. He has 8 KO/TKO’s including a flying knee & spinning back elbow KO. He has finished 3 fights in a row in round one and is a super confident guy with a mean streak.
Zelim is not a wrestler even though he’s from Russia. He can be controlled against the fence & taken down. He will attack with good knees & elbows himself and does a decent job of framing on the head to get out of it. He can be taken down with body locks or when he gets too aggressive coming forward. Fighters can time takedowns off his knees or kicks. He is active on his back & immediately tries to create a scramble to get back to his feet or get into top position. He hasn’t fought anyone with a good ground game, but I feel all those explosive movements wouldn’t work vs an experienced grappler. He will dig a nice underhook from bottom in half guard to stand up. He is training at Xtreme Couture’s so I’m sure he’s trying to address that issue. On top, he is aggressive with G&P & will try to finish the fight. He has been put in a tight guillotine and armbar but stays composed and can eventually power out of them. Imadaev is going to want to keep this fight standing. He is still very young in his career & only has fought one way. He is going to be aggressive, wild and go for the finish from the opening bell. He is going to be looking to cut the cage off, get Max Griffin going backward and try to KO him with a punch, flying knee or spinning attack. This is his toughest test by a mile, 5 of his 8 opponents have 0 career MMA victories & only two of the eight have a winning record, one being 3-1-1. He is coming off his biggest win to date, a knockout of a 16-8-1 fighter in 13 seconds. This is going to be the test to see if Imadaev is the real deal or needs a bit more polishing.
Max Griffin
Age: 33
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: MMA Gold Team
From: California
UFC Record: 2-4
Fight Matrix: 56
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -105
Max Griffin is looking to bounce back from a very questionable decision. He lost a fight in Brazil to Thiago Alves, that if it were anywhere else I think he gets the nod. He clearly won the fight in my opinion, but with back to back losses officially on his record now, he might need a win to save his job here. Max Griffin has said he has sparred with Zelim & had a bad experience. He said that Zelim is an asshole & tries to knock opponents out during sparring. Max Griffin is a solid striker, who reminds me a lot of Michael Johnson on the feet. He has excellent lateral movement & very fast hand speed. He will throw the jab to the body and head. He has very fast one-twos. His straight-right hand is super-fast & he has big power on it. He dropped Mike Perry with a straight-right hand, left hook combination. He will meet opponents in the middle with straight punching combinations to stop their forward movement. He will also close the distance with straight punches or hooks in combination and try to finish opponents against the cage. He is very good at darting in with a straight shot & then getting out of range. He has very fast hand speed. He will throw hard inside, outside leg kicks & the occasional head kick. He has a very nice step-in knee to the body. He is extremely durable. His chin is granite. He took some huge shots against Thiago Alves, Mike Perry, and especially Curtis Millender & Zaleski Dos Santos. If fighters can cut him off, they can sometimes land wide hooks or overhands as he tries to exit. He has big power himself & has dropped three of four of those opponents himself. He has 7 KO/TKO’s & has only been TKO’d one time from being unable to get out of a position on the ground against Colby Covington. He gassed out a bit in his last match & allowed Alves to dominate the second round & steal the third, but with his disdain for his opponent & that bad taste recently in his mouth I don’t see him allowing that to happen again.
Griffin is improving as a grappler, and I could see him trying to get some takedowns and control time in this match as well. He will throw an overhand right directly into a body lock or double leg. He will shoot single legs & drive opponents to the cage, and chain wrestle. He was able to land a nice body lock takedown against Thiago Alves & was able to control him for the majority of round 3. In top position, he is more about control than submission or finish. He will get into half guard, & land short elbows to the body & head. He will get a tight waist from side control & use it to control & ride opponents out. His top control isn’t great & I don’t expect him to hold down Zelim, unless he has taken a lot of punishment, or gasses out. When Griffin ends up on his back I don’t like what I see. He allows fighters to posture, land big shots and doesn’t have a great get-up game. He has one submission & has been submitted one time. Griffin is going to try to use the game plan he did against Mike Perry, use his lateral footwork & superior foot & hand speed to cut Zelim off with combinations. I don’t see him trying to brawl or take Zelim down unless it’s in the later rounds. If he can land his one-two & especially his right hand, he could hurt Zelim. He needs to sit down early & put power on some shots to gain Imadaev’s respect. If Griffin comes in well-conditioned, and sharp he has a good chance to get the win here. He is the technically superior boxer with the faster hand & foot speed. He needs to avoid those lulls in action he seems to allow opponents back in the fight & land big shots. Griffin has shown a fantastic chin, against very heavy hitters, but this Russian hits hard & I wouldn’t test that. If he can bring Imadaev into the later rounds he may expose him, this is a big step up in competition.
Zelim is an undefeated prospect and will be making his UFC debut against Griffin who is 2-4 in the UFC. All 8 of Imadaev’s wins are via knockout and 5 of them have come in the first round. Both guys are primarily strikers, so I expect this fight to stay standing for as long as it lasts. I think Imadaev is the more dangerous striker here and I think he is more likely to win by knockout. I think the longer this fight goes the better chance Griffin has of winning. If he can survive the early storm from Imadaev then he could get a late finish or win a judge’s decision, but I am going to side with the newcomer getting a KO here and I think it comes in round 1.
This week we have two $8k and two $8.2k fighters. I think hitting these and mainly the $7.8k-$8.4k range is going to be key on winning this slate. This is where I will be donating to the pot the most because I will be heavy on this range and I will be taking both sides knowing I am throwing lineups away trying to hit the right combo for 1st place. I like Imadaev here as my preferred play, but this is fight is a GPP only target. I will be much higher on Imadaev, but I will also have exposure to Griffin. I don’t see Griffin having the ceiling of Imadaev, but I do think he will be lower owned and maybe by a decent amount. This is a fight I will look to get in half or more of my lineups and I will probably have double the amount of Imadaev and mainly use Griffin as a hedge. I am not confident in Imadaev getting the win, but I think he has a high ceiling and that is what I am chasing.
Winner – Zelim Imadaev via 1st round (T)KO
Alexandre Pantoja $8,800 vs Wilson Reis $7,400
Alexandre Pantoja
Age: 28
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: ATT
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 4
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -155
Alexandre Pantoja’s performances have gone up a notch since joining American Top Team. He dominated a tough Brandon Moreno, and then quickly took out Ulka Sasaki in impressive fashion. At 28 years old, he looks to be peaking right now & in the best form of his career. A win here would finally jump him into that top 5 conversation & bring his name closer to title contention. Pantoja is an aggressive striker, along with being a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. Pantoja has a nice jab, and a good one-two. He has nasty leg kicks & will throw a one-two, leg kick combination. He has a nice wide right hook & overhand right. He will slide back & counter with those attacks. He has nice hooks to the body, and he will throw a right hook to the body, left hook to the head combination. He will throw nice front kicks to the body & the occasional round or front kick to the head. He has shown the tendency to fight emotionally & get a bit wild. When he gets hit, he will aggressively come forward and try to get it back. He has no problem sitting in the pocket & exchanging and has a great chin with solid power. He is flat footed & needs to sit down on his shots with his style. Due to this, he does struggle with fighters with solid movement. Since moving to ATT his striking has improved a lot. His hand speed is much faster than it was against Dustin Ortiz, along with his shot selection. Against Brandon Moreno, he was throwing out a stabbing jab, his straight-right hand, and then countering Moreno brilliantly. He also landed a ton of leg kicks. He needs to have that technical approach again here and can’t get wild and allow Reis takedown opportunities. Pantoja has 6 KO/TKO’s and has never been finished.
Pantoja is a great grappler with superb BJJ. He is very strong in the clinch, and when he backs fighters against the cage he will grab the Muay Thai plum and land hard knees to the head and body. He will get a single collar position against the cage and throw nasty elbows and knees to the body. He will go for body lock takedowns in the clinch and shoots some reactive shots if he has an advantage on the mat. On top, he is very good, he has great guard passing and moves into dominant positions quickly. He loves to take the back where he has a great body triangle and control. He has a great rear naked choke, with 6 himself. He has never been submitted. I expect him to try to keep this fight standing & avoid being on his back. His takedown defense is solid. He has a strong sprawl and is good at creating scrambles right away. In his fight against Dustin Ortiz, he lost more due to Ortiz being able to turn in after Pantoja took the back & control the later parts of two rounds but didn’t have great success taking him down. He needs to move & not let Pantoja get in on his legs or a body lock. I feel he could possibly be out muscled & bullied a bit in the clinch by Reis if he allows it in that position. I don’t see either fighter getting a submission. When Pantoja does get taken down he has solid get-ups & sweeps. He will attack with subs in his guard. In his last match, he attacked with a nice triangle armbar from his guard, and ultimately used a leg lock to take Sasaki’s back & quickly locked in a RNC. He has 9 career submissions, 7 via rear naked choke. Pantoja is going to want to use lateral movement & pick Reis off as he tries to get inside. He needs to keep his jab in Reis’ face & then open up with longer combinations as Reis gets more desperate. He should attack the lead leg of Reis to slow down the shot, but make sure to set the kicks up. Pantoja has great cardio & usually gets stronger as the fight goes. He needs to be sharp & ready to strike technically for 3 rounds. If he’s taken down, bounce right back up, and don’t engage much in the grappling if at all.
Wilson Reis
Age: 34
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 65”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 7-5
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +135
Wilson Reis bounced back from three consecutive losses, to defeat Ben Nguyen by decision his last time out. He needs this win to prove he is still an elite FW. With a loss I think he will be cut. He is 34 years old & it would be his 4th loss in 5 matches. Reis is a credentialed BJJ Black belt, and always looking to get the fight to the mat. He is one of the biggest FWs on the roster & very physically strong. Reis has done a good job of improving his striking game over the years, but he is still a bit clunky. Reis is a lot lighter on his feet and has improved his footwork. He has a heavy right hook with nice power. He uses a lot of head movement and comes in with hooks. He will throw body kicks and inside leg kicks, and they are powerful. He is heavy on his lead leg and can leg kicked himself. He will try to catch opponents with a winging, wild left hook. His whole game is to punch his way into the body lock and get the takedown. Fighters with good lateral movement are able to move around and avoid his power shots and pick him off as he closes distance. He is a very tough guy with great cardio and is always walking down his opponents. He isn’t a KO striker with 0 KO’s in his career. He has an ok chin but has been finished 3 times. He has only been finished 1 time by strikes at 125 by the current champion Henry Cejudo.
Wilson Reis is a fantastic wrestler, and a power house for 125 lbs. He has nasty double leg entries, and when he gets in the clinch he will take fighters for a ride. He is strong in the clinch and does a good job of controlling fighters against the cage. He will go for single legs in that position as well as body locks in the clinch. He is great in the scrambles and will take the back or get up off his back, into a double leg and get on top. He is very heavy on top and has a pressure Jiu-Jitsu game. He has great passing ability and does a great job of quickly getting to dominant positions where he can get submissions. He has a strong mount and will land nice ground & pound until fighters give their back and get rear naked choked. He has 5 rear naked chokes in his career. He is also very good at getting arm triangles, of which he has 4. He has good takedown defense, and if fighters get him down, he is hard to hold down. He has 9 career submissions, and only been submitted once by Demetrious Johnson. Reis is going to want to close the distance, get inside & control Pantoja against the cage were he can chain wrestle. He needs to make it a wrestling match, and grind Pantoja out.
This is a battle between two of the top 125ers in the world. Both guys are excellent on the ground and we could be in for a lot of fun scrambles and submission attempts in this fight. Pantoja should have a pretty decent edge on the feet and that is where he will look to keep this fight. He is great on the ground as well, but I give the edge to Reis there and he will be the one looking for takedowns in this fight. Reis has OK standup, but he has 0 KO’s on his record and he only lands 1.86 significant strikes per minute. If he can’t land takedowns, then he is going to get outworked and likely lose a decision on the feet. He does land 5.15 takedowns per 15-minutes. I do expect him to have some success with takedowns, but I don’t think he can submit a guy like Pantoja and I think Pantoja will be able to work his way back to the feet. I think the fight will be close with Pantoja winning the striking exchanges and Reis winning the grappling exchanges, but I am going to side with the favorite to win a judge’s decision here.
This is another fight where I will have a couple shots on both sides, but I don’t love it overall. My preferred play here is Reis because he will be the one looking for takedowns. It is also going to be a lot easier for him to reach value in a win. I don’t see Pantoja going for many takedowns here and I don’t think he gets a KO either. I don’t think his pace will pay off that $8.8k price-tag in a decision win. If I was making 20 or less lineups I would just fade him here. I think Reis is playable still with 20 or less lineups but I think he gains a decent amount of ownership as well. I think he loses the fight, so I am likely going to be underweight to him here, but I do like targeting the takedowns from an underdog. If I was making 20 lineups I would probably have 0 Pantoja and 2-3 Reis. I think Reis is a decent cash game play as well because I think he gets 15-minutes of work and I could see him scoring 30+ points in a loss.
Winner – Alexandre Pantoja via Unanimous Decision
Jalin Turner $8,400 vs Matt Frevola $7,800
Jalin Turner
Age: 23
Height: 6’3
Weight: 155
Reach: 77”
Gym: Adrenaline Combat Sports
From: California
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 186
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -130
Jalin Turner is an intriguing prospect. He had a rude awakening with a knockout loss in his UFC debut to Vincente Luque but showed what he could do in his last match. Back at 155 lbs in his natural weight class, he was able to get a knockout in under a minute. He is only 23 years old & will be looking to build off that with another UFC win. He is a very long, rangy, dangerous southpaw. He is good at fighting long & using his reach. He has a very nice one-two and his straight-left hand is very powerful. He has a very nice lead & check right hook. He will throw the check right hook as he leans back, and it’s effective at maintaining range, but if opponents eat it & fire back he’s there to be hit. He will throw a right hook, left straight combination. He is very good at attacking the body with punches & kicks. He has a nice straight-left hand & a nasty left hook to the body. He has a nice front kick to the body. He has nice spinning back kicks to the body & flying knees. He will throw round & question mark kicks to the head. He will throw nice standing elbows. He will go for the kill when he has opponents hurt & he is a finisher. He finished with a nasty left hook, body kick, right hook KO combination in his last fight. He doesn’t move his head much and does a lot of leaning back instead of using footwork. He has had chin problems in his career. He has been KO/TKO’d 4 times, a few times brutally. He is very fast & athletic and overwhelms a lot of opponents in round one. He has 7 first round KO/TKO’s.
Turner isn’t a grappler but looks to be improving at it. He won’t usually initiate grappling situations & uses his wrestling in reverse. He has good sprawls on takedowns attempts and will attack with front chokes. He has one career triangle choke submission. He does a good job of creating scrambling scenarios right away when the fight hits the ground & scramble back to his feet. He does go for double legs when he gets hurt, but overall is not a great wrestler. If he does get put on his back, he isn’t very good. He doesn’t do much off his back & can be controlled for entire rounds. He has never been submitted, but he needs to avoid being put on his back until he improves his get-ups. Turner needs to fight long here, use his range movement and speed to keep Frevola on the outside. I see him having a major speed advantage & being able to land his straight punches as Frevola tries to close the distance with hooks. Turner needs to attack the body. I think he will be able to land front kicks to the body & counter knees as Frevola tries to get inside. Turner needs to deny the likely takedown attempts, and if he can keep this fight on the feet, he will most likely win. Frevola has big power & he does have to be careful not to get hit with a big hook or overhand in the pocket.
Matt Frevola
Age: 28
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Serra-Longo Fight Team
From: New York
UFC Record: 0-1-1
Fight Matrix: 240
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: 1 Draw
Betting Odds: +110
Matt Frevola is still searching for his first UFC win. He was knocked out badly in his UFC debut, but followed that up with a fight of the night draw against Lando Vannata. Vannata is a will blood & guts fighter who goes in the cage to brawl. Frevola is in perpetual forward motion. Frevola will feint as he closes the distance, and then explode into an overhand right or right & left hook combinations. If he can get inside & land a right hook he can rock or put opponents out. He is calm in the pocket and will slip shots & return with counters. In his last match, he took a bit of smarter approach. He was throwing more jabs, using more lateral movement & trying to walk Vannata into shots. I don’t know if that’s a smart game plan against a fighter who likes to fight long like Turner. He will throw superman punches to get inside. He will throw a lot of front & round kicks to the body. He has solid inside leg kicks & rear leg head kicks. He will throw nice spinning kicks to the body, head and a lot of creative techniques. He landed a nasty standing elbow & a flying knee in his last match. He has good cardio & has broken fighters with forward pressure in the past. In this fight, he needs to go back to his in your face style, close the distance & try to land shots inside and create grappling situations. Frevola has one career KO and has been knocked out one time. He took a ton of damage against Vannata as well, and his chin has taken a beating in his first two UFC fights. He doesn’t move his head & when he gets hurt he sometimes will bite down & try to get it back putting him in danger of being finished. When he crawls in the pocket he tends to have his chin right up in the air.
Frevola is a dogged wrestler, but not necessarily the greatest wrestler. He will shoot for doubles & singles, and I expect him to do more feinting punches & ducking under with wrestling shots in this fight. He usually will only attempt takedowns when he is hurt, doubles and singles and they can be from very far away. He does have a solid top game and is active. He will look to quickly take the back & will transition from the back to the mount looking for submissions. He was able to get a nice arm triangle against Jose Flores on the DWCS. I don’t imagine he will have to defend takedowns in this fight, but he was able to counter & almost finish with a guillotine in round one when Vannata went for a double leg. Overall, Frevola isn’t extremely active as a wrestler, and it will be interesting if he can keep a grinding pace for 3 rounds. He has 3 submissions and has never been submitted. He trains with Matt Serra, and if he gets on top I do believe he will have a size-able advantage. Frevola needs to close the distance, stay in Turner’s face & try to put him out with punches inside or get him on the ground and grind him out. When he takes him down he should look for more control than submission. If Frevola fights the same way he did vs Vannata I can see him getting picked apart from the outside. He needs to be aggressive & make this a war to get the win.
This could be a fun brawl and one I don’t expect to go all 3 rounds. I expect Turner to be the better fighter on the feet here and I think Frevola will look to get the fight to the ground. Whoever has success keeping the fight where they want it should get their hand raised. I think the length of Turner and the pace he sets will cause issues for Frevola and Turner also has never been taken down in the UFC so far. I am going to side with Turner getting the knockout in this fight. I am impressed with his overall striking game and if he can keep the fight on the feet then I think a KO is the only way he loses in a striking battle.
As I mentioned before, I think this will be an important fight for DraftKings. This fight is one of the most likely fights to end inside the distance and with these guys being in the mid-range of pricing that should put the winner on the optimal lineup. My preferred play here is Turner and I will have much more exposure to him, but if Frevola wins, then he likely gets a KO or grapples a lot and that will score highly. I want exposure to him as well and if I was making 10 lineups I would still want 1 hedge lineup here if I was going heavy on Turner. I think Turner ends up in 40% or more of my lineups this week and I will have 10% or so Frevola lineups as a hedge. This fight will be in half or more of my lineups though and I will avoid it in cash because I don’t trust either guy enough there. If you are making 3-5 lineups then I would just choose a side here, but if you are going with more than 5 lineups then this is a good fight to target both sides of and I wouldn’t talk you out of going all-in. This fight does have the highest FDGTD line at -365 so all-in is probably not a bad idea. I just won’t risk that with the 50+ lineups I make.
Winner – Jalin Turner via 1st round (T)KO
Nikita Krylov $8,200 vs Ovince Saint Preux $8,000
Nikita Krylov
Age: 26
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: YK Promotion
From: Ukraine
UFC Record: 6-4
Fight Matrix: 23
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -120
This is a rematch of two fighters who desperately need a win. Ovince St. Preux is looking to bounce back from a definitive loss to Dominick Reyes and avoid losing 3 out of 4 fights. A loss here at 36 years old would most likely indicate St Preux, may no longer be a top 10 fighter. Ovince was able to easily defeat Krylov in the first fight, and that should give him confidence coming in here. Nikita Krylov needs to have a good performance, after he fell flat in his UFC return. His return was highly anticipated, as when he left, he was already a contender, but he was dominated and submitted by Jan Blachowicz. He needs a win to prove that he is here to stay & a threat to the top 10. Nikita Krylov is a finisher of the highest proportion. He has 19 wins and 19 finishes and in his 24 fights he has never been to decision and been to the third round just 1 time. Krylov is a very good striker. He starts fast and there is no feeling out process with Krylov. He gets right in his opponents face early, and tries to stay long, throwing nice front kicks and round kicks to the body. He will throw the front kick to the body and then go high with a left high kick. He has fast hands, a nice jab and straight-right hand. He does a good job of setting up the jab, straight-right hand combo with a leg kick. He has a nice right hook, and when he starts to find his range and get his opponents moving backwards, he will start to up the volume. He has a good spinning back kick to the body and a good spinning backfist. He throws head kicks mid combination, and they are hard to see coming and very tricky. He has multiple head kick knockouts in the UFC. When he lands he likes to blitz his opponents and get their back against the cage and then tries to flurry and finish the fight. He can close the distance a little bit wildly and run in with his chin high. He sometimes can throw body and high kicks without setting them up and get countered with straight punches. He seems to not react the best to getting hit and doesn’t have the best chin.
Krylov is good in the clinch, and very aggressive. He will get double underhooks, push opponents against the cage and land nasty knees to the body and to the head. He has finished people with knees to the head in the clinch. He will go for takedowns himself, and then likes to get the back and get a rear naked choke. He has a nice front choke/guillotine and has a very tight squeeze. He taps people out very quickly once he gets his hands locked. He will sacrifice position to get the guillotine & it’s how he allowed Jan to get top position in his last match. When he was taken down by OSP he held onto the neck in side control & was von flued. He makes bad decisions in the octagon & I think it holds him back from his true potential. His takedown defense is not good & fighters can take him down off kicks. He has been submitted 5 times. He does have decent scrambling ability, but I feel that he definitely needs to avoid being on his back vs Saint Preux. I think that on the feet Krylov will be able to be in & out, use footwork & get OSP to over extend. I think he will land nice kicks & straight punches & could even possibly get a KO finish. I think that he needs to look for takedowns & mix it up, because I feel he can get them. He can’t do anything dumb that lets OSP take top position or get taken down & I think he has a solid chance to win the match.
Ovince St Preux
Age: 36
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 80”
Gym: Knoxville MMA
From: Tennessee
UFC Record: 11-7
Fight Matrix: 17
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +100
Ovince Saint Preux has fought the, who’s who of the division and had mixed success. He is an extremely athletic and dynamic knockout artist, and one of the most dangerous matchups in all the UFC. OSP is long and rangy with a very odd, unorthodox striking style. He has his hands down and will attack from odd angles with unorthodox strikes. He will square up with his opponents a lot which is usually a big no no, but he it gives him knockout power from both sides and he makes it work. He will explode forward with a nice straight-left hand and throws hard body kicks. He is a southpaw and likes to throw that kick to the body and then switch it up to the head kick. Saint Preux is a much better counter striker than he is as the aggressor. He lands nice, long reaching straights and hooks, and has a solid jab. His straight punches are very fast. When he leads, he sometimes looks super sloppy and will throw himself out of balance. He struggles with fighters who use movement & kick. He also doesn’t throw many combinations he will just go for one shot kill shots. Saint Preux has a nice snap kick to the body and his kicks have huge power. He broke Ryan Jimmos arm with a kick. He has a good chin and will take shots to give shots. He has been finished twice via strikes and was hurt badly at the bell in round 3 in his last match. He has 11 career KO/TKO’s including 4 in the UFC.
Saint Preux is a good grappler and has really improved his takedown defense over the years in the UFC. In the first match with Krylov, he quickly took him down and submitted him with a von flue choke. He is a solid wrestler himself, has good double leg takedowns, and decent body locks. He is strong in the clinch and can control fighters against the fence. He has good knees to the body, short punches and elbows. His takedown defense is very good. He is super hard to takedown in space and does a great job of getting his back to the fence where he is hard to takedown. He has great wrist control and will get very wide making it hard for fighters to clamp their hands together. He defended 7 out of 8 of Corey Anderson’s takedowns, and eventually finished him with a head kick. If he does get taken down, he has a great get-up game, and is super hard to hold down. Saint Preux has some tricky Jiu-Jitsu. He has a calf slicer, and 3 Von Flue chokes. I feel he will be able to take Krylov down & is just the more physical fighter. I imagine that will be his game plan. On the feet, I feel Krylov’s movement & good distance control with kicks and straight punches could give him issues, so he should just take him down. If he can get on top, he has already shown he can submit Krylov & Krylov was recently submitted in round one vs Jan Blachowicz. Krylov is a black belt, but his main issue over his career has been takedown & submission defense.
This is a rematch from 5 years ago and OSP won the first fight via 1st round submission. Krylov was only 22 years old then and I expect this fight to be much closer with him now being 27 and OSP being 35. Krylov is a kill or be killed fighter. He has never been to a decision in 30 professional fights and I don’t expect this one to go 15-minutes either. I expect Krylov to be the more active fighter on the feet here and OSP may be looking to get the fight to the ground. They are both well-rounded and can finish fights with knockouts or submissions, but since Krylov was submitted in their first fight and most recent fight, I think he looks to stand here. This is not a confident pick at all, but I am going to take Krylov by KO here and I think it will be from a head kick in round 1 or 2.
On DraftKings, Krylov is my preferred play and that is because of his ceiling. If he wins fights it is by finish and if he finishes this fight at $8.2k then he has a good chance of being on the $30k lineup. I like him more than Imadaev if I am choosing between the two $8.2k fighters and I like OSP more than Griffin. This will be a fight that is in 70% or more of my lineups most likely and it has the 2nd highest FDGTD line on the card at -350. In general, OSP doesn’t score highly so I wouldn’t love him in most spots even at $8k. However, if this fight ends like it did in their first match then he will probably be on the optimal lineup. I am more targeting him because this is a Krylov fight and Krylov fights don’t go the distance. This will probably be the fight I have the 2nd most ownership on and I don’t expect to see a 3rd round. I think this is a better GPP fight than it is a cash fight but if you are stuck at $8.2k or less for your last spot then I don’t hate going with the fighter you’re picking to win.
Winner – Nikita Krylov via 2nd round (T)KO
Alan Jouban $8,300 vs Dwight Grant $7,900
Alan Jouban
Age: 37
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Black House MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 7-4
Fight Matrix: 133
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -120
Alan Jouban has had a pretty substantial layoff. He had a good performance, knocking out Ben Saunders, but has taken over a year off. He has had some neck & elbow injuries and had to get back to 100%. At 37 years old, he needs a victory. Jouban is a good southpaw striker. He can be aggressive, but in this fight, I expect him to use a more point fighting style. He has good lateral movement and walks opponents into his strikes. He has a very nice straight-left hand. He throws it very tight down the middle and can stun & drop opponents with it. He has a good check left hook going backwards. He will throw a right hook, left straight combination. He has a nice inside leg kick, right hook, straight-left hand combination. When he can get his combinations going & feels comfortable going forward he can be very fun to watch. He has good uppercuts & hooks in the pocket. He has quick hands in close. He landed some nasty elbows to the head in close range vs Ben Saunders. He likes to pull counter with his left hand. He will throw a kick, feint, draw out a shot and counter with his straight-right hand. He dropped Mike Perry that way. He will throw inside, outside leg kicks. He has nice front & round kicks to the body. He has a good round kick to the head. He will throw occasional spinning heel kicks to the head. He will throw spinning elbows to the head. He struggles with fighters who walk through his shots & pressure him. He can drop his hands as he circles or enters & can get caught with straight punches & hooks. His durability has been called into question by some, but I don’t think he has a bad chin. He took some big shots from Mike Perry, but he has been taken out in recent fights. He was rocked & submitted by Gunnar Nelson, and TKO’d by Niko Price. He holds his hands low & gets hit with shots he just doesn’t see coming. He has been KO/TKO’d 3 times in his career. He is a finisher himself & has a lot of knockouts. He has 11 KO/TKO’s and will be looking to build off of a highlight reel knockout in his last fight of Ben Saunders.
Jouban isn’t an offensive wrestler, and I don’t envision much grappling in this fight. Jouban will close the distance & get body locks or shoot reactive shots if an opponent is being very aggressive. He got a body lock takedown against Mike Perry, but overall only has 3 takedowns in 11 UFC fights. He does throw nice elbows in the clinch, but he usually tries to avoid those positions & fight at range. There is really not much to say about his top game. He has 0 career submissions & hasn’t shown much in terms of top control. He has good takedown defense & has only been taken down 6 times in his UFC career. He has only been submitted one time, and that was after being rocked by Gunnar Nelson an elite black belt. I don’t expect either fighter to grapple here, and it should be contested on the feet. Jouban is the veteran here, has fought the much better competition & proven he can win against top 25 guys. He has good cardio & the ability to fight to a game plan for 3 rounds. I think Jouban is going to go forward, fake & front, try to draw out punches and counter. I think he will attack the legs with kicks, and try to counter with straight punches, because Grant throws wide looping shots. I think he will be more in & out and not want to exchange. I do feel he is the cleaner, better striker with more tools. If he avoids being clipped, I feel he could definitely win over 15 minutes.
Dwight Grant
Age: 34
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 76.5”
Gym: AKA
From: New York
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 52
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +100
Dwight Grant had a spectacular knockout in his last fight. He caught Carlo Pedersoli clean & knocked him out cold. He will be looking to win two UFC fights in a row for the first time and move closer to a top 15 opponent. Dwight Grant is more of a counter striker himself, and really tries to utilize his reach. He has a 76.5” reach & throws a lot of wide looping shots. He will use lateral movement, fake & feint, and try to walk opponents into wide hooks & overhands. He will throw an overhand right, left hook combination, and floored Tyler Hill on DWCS. He does a great job of using his reach to grab behind the head & landing hard uppercuts. He has a good counter left hook going backwards. He can explode very quickly with big a big combination & finish the fight if he sees the opening & is always dangerous. He will throw booming hooks to the body but should attack it more. He is always going backwards & giving up octagon control, and I feel that’s why he lost the decision to Ottow. He lets his opponents dictate the pace, and he needs a good dance partner or to land some big shots, and really hurt his opponents to guarantee a decision victory. He is 2-2 in decisions. He is also heavy on his lead leg & I feel open to be countered. He is very fast & just needs to land one shot to change the fight. He has 6 KO/TKO’s out of his 8 wins & has never been finished.
Grant has good defensive wrestling skills. He is training at an amazing wrestling gym, AKA, and has plenty of wrestlers to work with. He isn’t an offensive grappler. He will catch kicks, and get takedowns occasionally, but he won’t shoot takedowns. He has a strong sprawl, and he does a great job of getting a whizzer in the clinch and circling back to the center. He is explosive if opponents do take him down and is hard to hold down. He did get wild trying to finish Zak Ottow and was taken down in round 3. He was able to stand up, but he was controlled for about 2 minutes and then controlled against the fence. Ottow is a black belt, so he wasn’t facing a scrub on the ground. He has never been submitted and has never gotten a submission himself. He has good cardio and has shown he holds his power into the third round with a couple third round KO’s in his career. Dwight Grant needs to be more aggressive in this fight. He needs to go forward more & try to explode in with combinations. In my opinion, this is a tough matchup for him. He can’t let Jouban get in a rhythm going forward, because it could go downhill quickly for him. He always has that chance to land a big shot or explode in with a combination. I definitely can see a scenario where he is losing the fight, all the way up until he wins with a knockout. He was losing the fight with Carlo Pedersoli the entire first round until he landed the one perfect kill shot. Grant needs to try to counter the straight-left hand of Jouban with his overhand and or try to catch him with a combination when Jouban holds his hands low. I don’t really see Grant taking a decision & think he needs a knockout to win.
I think Jouban is the better overall fighter here, but his chin is what I worry about. He has been knocked out 3 times and Grant has big power that could put him away. I think Jouban will be the fighter striking at the higher pace and he is probably more likely to go for takedowns. He also has KO power himself. I think the only way he loses this fight is by getting knocked out and that is very possible. With the line being even I thought about taking a small shot on Jouban for 1u, but I haven’t made the move yet. I am a little too worried about that KO from Grant, but I am going to side with Jouban to win a decision here. He would be my preferred betting side as well, but I may just use this fight on DraftKings instead of betting it.
This is our last important mid-range fight to target. Heavily. I will say my preferred play is Grant but that is mostly because he is an underdog and we have to get underdogs in our lineups. If Grant wins, I think it has to be from a KO. I don’t see him beating Jouban in a 15-minute fight but if he does get the KO then he could score 110 again and end up on the optimal. If Jouban wins, it could be from a decision and he could still possibly land on the optimal from the pace he sets in fights. If he was $9k then it would be a different story, but at $8.3k I don’t think it will be hard for him to get more than 10x. This is another fight I will have in half or more of my lineups and I would say I’ll be closer to 30% Grant and 25% Jouban. I don’t see this being a cash target for me so GPP only for both sides IMO.
Winner – Alan Jouban via Unanimous Decision
Eryk Anders $9,000 vs Khalil Rountree Jr. $7,200
Eryk Anders
Age: 31
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: Factory X MMA Team
From: Alabama
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: 46
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -200
Eryk Anders will be looking to change things up moving to 205 lbs. after a hot start in the UFC, he is looking to avoid 3 consecutive losses. This is an interesting matchup, because apparently Rountree & Anders have gotten some training in together & sparred more than once. It will be interesting which fighter won those sessions & if they bring that confidence into the fight. Anders got a big push due to being a former Alabama football player, but he is still a fairly well-rounded fighter. He has moved his camp to Factory X, a thriving gym, and I expect improvements. Anders is a pressure fighter. He does a good job of edging his way inside, pushing opponents towards the cage & cutting fighters off. He is always looking to land his straight-left hand. He will throw a one-two, or a lead uppercut, left hook combination. He will throw a left straight, right hook combination. When he is walking opponents down letting his hands go, with his check hook, straight-left hand, he is actually pretty good. He hits hard & wears on opponents with the pace & making them go backwards. He has a nice head kick & got a nasty head kick knockout against Tim Williams. He can be very low volume & just follow opponents without throwing, which has led to two close decision losses. He lost split decisions to Elias Theodorou & Lyoto Machida, where he probably could have won if he threw a little more volume. This is a totally different matchup, where Rountree, at least when he’s fresh is going to bring the fight. This will force Anders to throw more volume hopefully. Both fighters have power, but I would say Rountree definitely has the bigger, more one-shot power. Early on Anders has to be careful & not take a lot of risks. He should even think about trying to clinch up Rountree early and take some of that power away. Anders has a great chin & has taken bombs and appeared unfazed. The only time he was finished in his career, was due to doctors’ stoppage after being unable to continue vs Thiago Santos due to exhaustion. He has 7 KO/TKO’s himself.
Eryk Anders is the much better grappler here, and it has to be a part of his game plan to get some takedowns. He does a good job of stalking opponents to the cage & closing the distance for the single collar or double underhooks in the clinch. He is a strong guy & will control against the cage while landing knees and looking for singles or body lock takedowns. He has a solid single leg in space as well. I see him having a similar game plan to the one he did against Thiago Santos. I believe he will close the distance early & grind Rountree against the cage. I think if he can take Rountree down, maybe Rountree can get up once or twice, but I think Anders will largely keep him there. When he gets on top he is active & has strong ground & pound. He has a major cardio advantage, and as long as Anders stays safe in round one and mixes it up he has a high likelihood of winning. Anders is very tough & has big heart, he won’t give in fights like I’ve seen Rountree do. I think with two losses now at 205, and Factory X, he knows he needs this win. Anders only has one submission in his career & has never been subbed. Anders is going to want to close the distance, get past the kicking range & force Rountree to the cage. If he can clinch him up early, take some power & speed away from Rountree I could see him taking over the fight. I think Anders is going to want to try to use his striking to create grappling situations & then finish on top. He has the major cardio advantage & the longer the fight goes it favors him.
Khalil Rountree
Age: 29
Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Reach: 74”
Gym: Petchyindee Muay Thai
From: Nevada
UFC Record: 3-3-1
Fight Matrix: 78
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +170
Khalil Rountree was highlight reel KO’d by the incoming freight train, Johnny Walker, in November and will be trying to get back on track. Previous to that he had a big first round upset knockout of legend Gokhan Saki. He is extremely dangerous early, and a power striker. He is a southpaw & very fast. He is very light on his feet & fast early. He has a nice jab & solid leg kicks. He has nasty kicks to the body, and a very nice one-two. He will throw a straight-left, right hook combination. His left hand is powerful & can put fighters out cold. He dropped Tyson Pedro with his straight-left hand & finished Gohkan Saki with it. He goes for it early and is extremely aggressive. He will get in the pocket and try to push opponents back with powerful combos and sheer power. He holds his hands low and likes to try to bait fighters to throw so he can counter with a straight-left hand. He has a good high kick, and when he hurts fighters he is a brutal finisher. If he drops fighters, he has nasty ground & pound punches and hammerfists. All of his finishes are in round 1, and after that he gets tired and less dangerous. He has a good chin, but he gets very flat footed and clipped while winging slow power punches. He took his first knockout loss of his career in his last match & it was pretty brutal. He has 7 KO/TKO’s with 6 coming in round one, 9 of his 14 pro fights including TUF have ended in round one.
Rountree is a poor grappler. He isn’t an offensive wrestler, and a terrible wrestler. He was finished brutally in the clinch in his last match with elbows. Due to that he has went to Thailand for this camp to work on his clinch game. He does have a KO with a knee in the clinch in the UFC. He has decent takedown defense initially when he’s fresh. He has pretty good balance & can use elbows & knees to get fighters to give up the attempts. After a couple minutes he has virtually no takedown defense. He will try to jump on a guillotine, and that’s about it. Off his back he is a fish out of water. He will just lie on his back & has very little get-up game. He will try to use the cage to stand up but tends to give up his back. When he is forced to grapple, his gas tank quickly diminishes. He will gas very quickly even if he’s just being controlled in the clinch. If fighters can get him on his back or against the cage, his power is zapped & he becomes much less dangerous. He is basically a first round or bust KO fighter, with little grappling. He can be a head case & it’s hard to gauge which Khalil you are going to get on the night. He has been submitted twice, both by rear naked choke & has 0 submissions. There is no secret what Rountree is coming to do here. He is going to be powerful, fast, and explosive early, and look to finish the fight in round one by knockout. He may have some new tools in the clinch & Anders just needs to be weary of that. If Rountree can land his left-hand flush on anyone, he has a chance to get a finish.
These are two powerful guys who both like to throw bombs. Rountree is the more technical striker here and he could knockout anybody if he lands the right shot. Anders will likely be the fighter who is pushing the pace and moving forward and if he can get takedowns then he should dominate on the ground. Rountree is purely a striker and Anders can hang with him there if he wants or he could use his wrestling to have an easier time and be in less danger. I think that would be smart of him so that is what I think he is going to do. I will pick Anders to win a somewhat dominant decision here but either guy could get knocked out here and this fight could end in the early minutes.
Before salaries were released I thought Anders would be one of my highest owned fighters of the week. I think the smart thing for him to do would be to land takedowns and work the GNP for a TKO stoppage. I think he could do that stylistically here too. However, I keep hearing that he wants to brawl with Rountree and that isn’t smart. It could still lead to a very high score, so I want my exposure still and he is my preferred play, but I won’t have nearly as much as I first thought. I will also have Rountree lineups now as well because if this is going to be a standup fight then he is live, and he could score 100+ points at his cheap price. I think Anders is playable in all-formats, but I will probably have him in 20-30% of my lineups and I would say Rountree is a GPP only play and I will probably be under 20% on him.
Winner – Eryk Anders via Unanimous Decision
Israel Adesanya $9,200 vs Kelvin Gastelum $7,000
Israel Adesanya
Age: 29
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 80”
Gym: City Kickboxing
From: Nigeria
UFC Record: 5-0
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W16
Betting Odds: -170
Israel Adesanya has all but been anointed the next UFC star. A win for him would most likely be the start of a meteoric rise. Adesanya went 5-0 in his first year in the UFC & this is his 6th fight in 14 months. He’s coming off his biggest win to date defeating Anderson Silva and is undefeated at 16-0. Adesanya is extremely fast, twitch & fights like a spring on the feet. He is excellent at inching forward, while feinting switching stances, and giving different looks. His feints are incredible & if opponents respect his striking & let him get his reads, it’s game over. He is good at staying at his range & hand fighting with his lead hand. He has nice leg kicks, and a very good jab. He has a very nice one-two & a laser for a straight-right hand. He has a great step-in knee. He has a great left hook to the body that ends fights and does a great job of finding the openings high and low. He can switch stances & has the same accuracy with the straight-left. He tends to switch stances after he kicks. He has a nice straight-left, right hook combination. He will throw nasty front & lead leg hook kicks to the body & head. He has a great round kick to the head as well & is extremely fast with no tell. He has nice spinning kicks & jump kicks as well, when he wants to get creative. He is very good at timing knees when opponents are trying to close the distance. He is very fast, very accurate, and doesn’t waste a lot of strikes. He throws a lot of one shot attacks & doesn’t open himself up to being countered. He only throws combos when he thinks it’s definitely going to land. He has very good footwork, but he isn’t much of a mover. He likes to stand in front of opponents, so he can pull & slip counter. I do feel the fact he doesn’t use a ton of lateral movement could benefit Gastelum backing him up. Almost all his opponents have been able to clinch him against the cage at some point in the fight. I could see him using more lateral movement in this matchup knowing Gastelum has struggled with that in the past. Magny was able to use his reach & lateral movement very nicely on the feet, and Gastelum didn’t land much until the later rounds. I don’t think Adesanya has huge power, and unless he lands a long combination or a big kick or knee I don’t think he will KO Gastelum. Silva was able to take some big shots with his hands down & his chin isn’t what it once was. Adesanya does have 13 KO/TKO’s, but only one in 5 UFC fights. He is extremely confident with a good chin at 16-0, but he has been knocked out in kickboxing.
Adesanya is a solid defensive grappler & improving a lot. He has really improved his takedown defense, and even though he isn’t super bulky or muscular he is very strong in clinch positions. He does a good job of getting the Thai clinch and landing nice short elbows and knees. He has great hips and does a good job of getting his back to the cage if opponents get in on his legs where he is very hard to takedown. He is very strong in the upper body clinch, and is hard to control there, he will reverse and turn fighters against the cage or disengage. He can be taken down by body locks sometimes, and when he is on his back he has a decent guard, but it is purely defensive. He doesn’t go for many submissions, but he does a solid job of controlling posture and not taking much damage. If opponents take him down in the center of the cage, which is very hard to do, he doesn’t have a great get-up game and can be controlled from there. He did roll for a leg lock in his fight against Tavares, it wasn’t even close but at least it is showing he is growing and confident enough to try some things in the Jiu-Jitsu realm. He has a very calm demeanor even when he is put in bad positions, and he has the confidence he will get out and get back to his feet. He will not panic, and when he returns to his feet he will still have gas and be able to attack heavy. He has never been submitted, and I actually have liked his top game from the small sample size I’ve seen. He has good control and does a good job of floating and staying on top of his opponents as they try to sweep or get up. Adesanya is going to try to keep this fight on the feet & style on Gastelum. I think Adesanya needs to use his length & move more. I think he has to try to time when Kelvin comes inside with knees & front kicks. I think he needs to use front kicks to the legs to try to stop the forward movement as well. He has great cardio himself & in his 5-round fight vs Tavares he looked very sharp & strong in the championship rounds. If he gets backed to the cage or taken down, he has to scramble back to his feet & force Kelvin to strike at range. If he can deny the grappling of Gastelum & keep the fight at range, he most likely will win.
Kelvin Gastelum
Age: 27
Height: 5’9
Weight: 185
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 10-3-1
Fight Matrix: 4
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +150
Kelvin Gastelum was scheduled to face Robert Whitaker for the undisputed belt in February. Whitaker had to withdraw, and due to being out over a year an interim belt is now on the line. He will be fighting the highly touted prospect Israel Adesanya. There are some parallels to this fight & Gastelum’s fight to win TUF vs Uriah Hall. It is on the same day, April 13th, and a similar opponent where Gastelum is entering the underdog. Gastelum has definitely fought the better competition, and you could argue is being a bit disrespected here. Gastelum has very crisp hands, and very good boxing game. He has a nasty jab & hard left hand down the middle. He throws a lot of one-twos. He will mix in powerful left hooks & left uppercuts in close range. He has good inside, outside leg kicks & a solid head kick. I feel he should throw more leg kicks in future fights. Gastelum will attack the body with kicks & front knees. He will throw the occasional body hooks as well. Gastelum uses a ton of fakes, feints, false starts & tries to keep his opponents guessing. That paired with his foot & hand speed being a smaller fighter for the division, give him a unique skill set. He also possesses an iron chin & elite cardio. That gives him the ability to eat shots, continue to walk forward, and try to find his own like his last match vs Jacare. Kelvin has one punch power in his left hand & in my opinion is the more powerful puncher. He has struggled with fighters with reach & footwork in the past. He couldn’t connect very well on Neil Magny or Chris Weidman. Gastelum has 7 KO/TKO’s in his career, 8 if you count the KO of Vítor which was changed to a no contest due to marijuana. He has never been finished by strikes.
Gastelum is going to be the much better offensive wrestler in this matchup. He likes to time reactive double leg shots & usually will shoot them in space rather than against the cage. He will try to snap his opponent’s heads down if he can’t get the double and try to drag opponents down. On top, he is active & likes to take the back. He doesn’t have the greatest top control but is relentless with takedown attempts when he needs to be. He can be reversed & end up on his back himself. Gastelum is very hard to takedown, much less hold down. He is excellent at giving his back & scrambling back to his feet. He was able to defend most of the takedowns & survive some ground positions with Jacare, and it doesn’t get much more dangerous than that. He does have a good rear naked choke & 6 career submissions. He has been submitted one time by Chris Weidman. Gastelum is going to need to get inside this fight. He has to get an early takedown, or at least get in on the legs & make Adesanya think about that threat. He can’t respect the striking of Adesanya & has to close the distance & back him towards the cage. If he can back him up early and control him against the cage, take him down in the later rounds he could start to fake level changes & come over the top with strikes. Gastelum has incredible calmness & composure. Even if he is getting lit up by Adesanya, he is not going to panic. He has great cardio & wears on fighters as the fights go on. If he can mix it up early he has a chance to get a KO late, but his main path to victory via finish or decision is to grapple.
This is the 1st of two interim title fights for this card. Neither of these two have ever won the belt before but with the champion Robert Whittaker getting injured these two are getting a shot at the gold. Gastelum is the more well-rounded fighter and has fought the best of the best for years now. He is only fighting at 185 lbs because he couldn’t make weight at 170 and he was forced to move up. It has worked out well for him and he has more power with the extra weight, but he will be the smaller guy in this matchup. Adesanya is 7 inches taller than Gastelum and he will have a 9-inch reach advantage here. He is also the better striker and I would say by a good margin. I think the only ways Gastelum wins this fight is by knocking out Israel or using his takedowns and try to be the more active fighter to win a decision. I think Adesanya’s takedown defense is going to be too good for him though and his movement should also cause problems for Kelvin. So, I think it comes down to the KO or bust for Gastelum and I will side with him not getting it. I see Kelvin getting outclassed on the feet in this fight and I think this will be Israel’s most impressive performance yet. I think he could get the (T)KO here but I will pick him to win a 49-46 or 50-45 decision.
On DraftKings, Izzy is my preferred play. However, if this was a 3 round fight I would probably just fade it and the ownership that comes with it. With it being a 5-round fight, I am interested. I think Izzy can put the volume in 5-rounds to possibly pay off that $9.2k but I also think he is capable of finishing this fight in any round, more likely later in the fight after Kelvin has taken enough punishment. I think Kelvin is going to be the 1st or 2nd highest owned underdog of the card so I will be way underweight on him personally. I think he is a solid GPP play because if he wins it has to be from a KO or him using his grappling. Any win from him should score highly. I just don’t think he gets that win and I think he gets dominated on the feet. I think stacking this fight in cash is fine and using either fighter solo is fine as well. I would prefer the main event for stacking if you are choosing between the two, but the dub stack is in play here.
Winner – Israel Adesanya via Unanimous Decision
Max Holloway $9,100 vs Dustin Poirier $7,100
Max Holloway
Age: 27
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155 (Debut)
Reach: 69”
Gym: Gracie Technics
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 16-3
Fight Matrix: 1(FW)
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W13
Betting Odds: -210
Max Holloway is moving up in weight putting his 13-fight win streak on the line and getting a crack to be a champ champ. He will need to get revenge on Dustin Poirier to do so as he was submitted in their first encounter. That was Max’s debut, at only 20 years old, and a lot has changed since. Holloway is one of the best strikers in the UFC. He has arguably the best cardio & volume in the UFC. Holloway has a nasty jab, and a very good one-two. He has a very nice left hook & likes to throw a lot of jab, left hook combinations. He will throw jab, left hook, straight-right hand combinations. He will dig to the body with big hooks. He will pull counter excellently with his one-two. He will switch stances mid combination & never allows opponents to rest. He will land a combination, then use his straight-right to move to southpaw and continue the combo with a right jab to a straight-left combo. He has nasty left kicks & jump knees to the body along with hooks & has body shot finishes. He is excellent fighting in close range. He will touch opponents, pull back & counter with return combinations. He has a nasty spinning back to the body. His conditioning and ability to just continue to walk opponents down and drown them with pressure is what makes him an All-Time great. He isn’t a one punch knockout fighter, but his volume is something not many fighters can handle. He has 10 KO/TKO’s including 4 in a row. He has a hell of chin, but he is hittable. He puts himself in danger to do damage & Poirier will have his chances to land. He has never been finished by strikes.
Holloway is light years ahead of where he was on the ground in the first matchup. He was a white belt when he first fought Poirier, and now is good enough to finish a black belt like Jose Aldo on the mat. Holloway has excellent footwork & while he isn’t a mover he is very hard to shoot against. He has great hips & very good defense against the cage. When he gets taken down, he tends to pop right back up. He has the cardio to defend attempts or find his way back to his feet and be unfazed. He will counter takedowns with guillotines. He doesn’t go for offensive takedowns, and really only is in top position if he sweeps or drops opponents. He has shown a strong top game against an already hurt Aldo. He was able to keep top position, earn dominant position & pound out Aldo. Holloway has two submissions & was submitted once by Poirier. Holloway is going to want to pressure Dustin, back him up & break him with volume. Poirier has had problems with fighters who pressure him & if he can back him up and counter when Poirier tries to back him up while ripping the body, he could slowly deplete Poirier until he takes him out.
Dustin Poirier
Age: 30
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: ATT
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 16-4-1
Fight Matrix: 3
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +175
Dustin Poirier is finally getting a title shot. He has had 22 UFC fights, and it’s the second longest tenure in the UFC before earning a title shot. He has been looking to get a big fight for a while now & was even willing to be cut if not given a title shot. He is extremely motivated & this is the opportunity he has been chasing his whole career. Poirier is a powerful counter southpaw striker. He has an excellent jab, both to the body & head, and hard one-twos. He will throw a nasty straight-left, right hook combination. His left hook is extremely powerful & he can knock opponents out cold with it. He will switch stances & throw it as opponents are looking to exit & hits them when they don’t see it coming. Poirier has great low kicks & it’s something he needs to throw early & often vs Holloway. He has a very nice left round house kick & front kick to the body. He has adapted a style of using long range shots such as jabs & straight punches to pick at opponents, and then counter when they become aggressive. His counter left hook is nasty. His ability to counter moving backwards will be crucial in this fight. If he can’t land shots that back Max off it could be a long night on the feet for him. Poirier hits extremely hard especially at 155 & has more one punch power. He’s won 2 straight fights via KO/TKO & has 12 KO/TKO’s. He has been finished twice by strikes.
Poirier is going to need to mix it up & grapple here. He is very good in the clinch. He will throw a straight-left hand into the single collar clinch & then throw nice uppercuts and short punches. He is excellent at getting clinch takedowns. He has very good trips & foot sweeps. He will also look for double legs. He does a great job of controlling opponents against the cage until he can take them down. He has very good takedown defense. He will attack with front chokes specifically d’arces to defend takedown attempts and is very good at them. Poirier is strong on top. He has good control & will also look to just land shots from opponent’s guards if he can. He postured up & battered Anthony Pettis with punches & elbows before finishing him on the ground. Pettis has an elite guard & couldn’t submit Poirier. He was able to pass the legs when Pettis went for subs & took the back several times. He will get mount & look for armbars. He got a triangle arm bar in his first match with Max. Poirier has 6 submissions & has only been submitted one time. He isn’t a tapper & went to sleep rather than quitting. Poirier is extremely tough with excellent cardio himself & this is going to be a scrap. Poirier is going to need to pepper Max with long jabs & straight punches. He should throw front kicks & leg kicks and try to maximize his reach. When Max tries to close the distance, have the counter strikes ready, and try to land the left hook and take Max out. I feel he should also tie up Max against the cage & look for takedowns as well as shoot a few in space. Ortega was able to land 4 takedowns on Holloway & Poirier is a much better wrestler. I feel if Poirier is able to get an early takedown & feels he has a big advantage on the ground he could just continuously go back to that. It will be interesting if Max can defend & stand up or there’s still a big gulf on the ground.
This is going to be Fight Of The Night and I can’t wait to watch it. These two fought 7 years ago in Holloway’s 1st UFC fight and Poirier finished him with a 1st round submission. Since then, Holloway has improved a ton and he is on a 13-fight win streak. Holloway over Ortega was my Play Of The Year for 2018 and he looked amazing in that fight. He has been able to put up a pace that his opponents can’t handle, and he has finished 10 of his 13 straight wins. Dustin Poirier is an opponent that can not only handle the pace Holloway will set, but he loves to get in brawls and I don’t see Holloway being able to break him like he has many other opponents. I think this line should be closer to 50/50 and if Poirier finished Holloway again I wouldn’t be shocked. I think this is going to be an action-packed striking battle and I don’t see there being any boring moments in this fight. These two are going to go toe to toe and give the crowd exactly what they paid for. I think either guy can be TKO’d in this fight and we could also see a 25-minute war that is one for the ages. This fight is going to be at 155 lbs which I think will benefit Poirier since he has been fighting at that weight and should be the bigger, stronger guy. Since I think this is closer to a 50/50 fight I am going to side with the underdog to pick up a close decision and go 2-0 against Holloway.
All-in. I love this fight and it will be in every single lineup I make this week. I will stack this fight in cash games and I will even stack this fight in a few GPPs. That is how much I love this fight. I think we are looking at 200 total points in this fight and if this is a card where most or all favorites win then that 200 total points is going to win a GPP, especially if Holloway gets the win. My preferred play is going to be Poirier though and he will be my highest owned fighter on the card. If Poirier wins then he is a lock for the 1st place lineup. There is no way he wins with a low score here. Holloway will likely pay off his salary in a win as well, but it will be much harder with him $2k more than Poirier. Either way, I’d be shocked if this fight wasn’t on the $30k lineup. I am picking Poirier by a close split decision, but I also think he is very live for a TKO upset as well. I think the last I looked I had about 70% Poirier and about 45% Holloway. That includes my stack in cash and GPP stacks which is why it is higher than 100%. I love this fight and I can’t wait to watch it. I expect this to be a fight to be one of the greatest of all-time and if you aren’t stacking it in cash then send me your H2Hs.
Winner – Dustin Poirier via Split Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t takedown a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://MMAoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/
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