Welp, Qualifying was a mess and we are left to make sense of it all. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
Top Plays
Martin Truex Jr. – The wonky qualifying circumstances were not a friend to MTJ, but it creates some serious value for us. MTJ starts 27th at a track that he boasts an average running position of 7th. He dominated this race last year and seems to have the long run speed to be a factor one again.
Kyle Busch – It has become increasingly apparent that Kyle Busch is going to be a factor to win at just about every race this year, starting off 2019 four top 6 performance. This week, he will roll off 4th while boasting the highest driver rating of any car in the field. He was top 3 in all categories in practice 2 and seemed to find a little more short run speed in the 3rd practice. I think Kyle Busch is the most likely candidate to dominate this race.
Brad Keselowski – Brad K barely missed the final round of qualifying and will roll off 13th, but I think he has the fastest overall car in the field. He was top 3 in all categories in both practice 2 and 3. He has been a staple of the top ten at Auto Club in the last four years, and I think a top 3 finish is very likely come Sunday.
Kurt Busch – I had some concerns about Kurts move to CGR in 2019, but boy has he proved me wrong. He has been a contender at every track we have been to. Auto Club hasn’t been kind to Kurt over the last couple years, but there was a time when he was a top five staples. I think he gets back to form this week.
Fades
The RCR squad has shown some improved speed in 2019, but Austin Dillon has not shown me enough to trust him as a polesitter.
Value
Daniel Suarez – Suarez tends to shine at these big sweeping racetracks, and despite a less than stellar qualifying effort, he showed some serviceable speed in final practice. I reckon a top ten is not out of the realm of possibility.
Daniel Hemric – Hemric showed that improved RCR speed with a tremendous practice 3, and thanks to a lower price and a 17th place starting spot he is certainly on the table. Auto Club treated Hemric well in the xFinity series, and he should keep it up come Sunday.
Paul Menard – Menard, who starts 25th, represents a fantastic piece of value for us this week. Auto Club is one of Menard best tracks and even though he didnt look great in practice, his veteran savvy should get him inside the top 15 without much effort. One of my favorite plays this week.
Matt Tifft – I needed to pick a punt of the week and I think this is the best option. However, I don’t love this play. It’s just the best choice available in this range. If you consider McDowell a punt at $5900, he is a fine play too.
So there it is folks. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.