The Sway Bar: NASCAR Draftkings Plays, Fades and Values for Phoenix

Week 2 of 3 of the west coast swing is underway and I couldn’t be more excited. I anticipate this week will be a little more predictable, for better or for worse. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.

Top Plays

Kevin Harvick – Harvick is at one of his best tracks with seemingly the best car, boasting top 3 5-10-15 and 20 lap speed. He rolls of eight, which isn’t ideal but shouldnt scare you off. Hard to avoid Harv this week, expect to see him at 40 to 50 percent owned.

Kyle Larson – Larson blundered in qualifying, but dont let the 31st starting spot fool you. Larson has a top ten car and has some real talent at Phoenix. A win is probably a long shot (19:1 to be exact), but we don’t need a win. Larson is damn near a lock.

Aric Almirola – This might be a bit of a sneaky play, because nothing about Almirola really jumps out at a glance.  However, he has super good long run speed (1st in 15-lap) and Phoenix is one of his best tracks. I can see him running top five most the day. He has the speed and ability. I anticipate he will only be 10-15% owned, and we can take advantage of that.

Clint Bowyer- Can you tell I like the Ford this week? Bowyer has a disastrous qualifying, but has shown top ten speed ever since. Granted, Phoenix isn’t one of his best tracks BUT – he is gruesomely under-priced and can really help you fill out your lineup. I could see him owned up to 40% in most large GPPs.

Fades

I don’t see any super clear fades this week. I am a little weary of Ryan Blaneys ability to lead long term here, as he has struggled at Phoenix for most of his career. Alas, I cant cosign a full fade for YRB.

Value

Daniel Suarez – NASCAR Twitters new darling looks to lay the Smackdown this week as he rolls of 28th (thanks Michael McDowell!). Suarez actually had top 5 long run speed in final practice, and has run top ten here in the past. Suarez will be driving mad this week, and that aggression should serve us well. An easy play here.

Ryan Newman – I will never not tout Newman at Phoenix, a track the he consistently outruns his equipment. He starts 18th, which isn’t ideal, but he has serious top ten potential and even showed top ten long run speed (I really value long run speed). I suspect he will be owned at around 20% – I am way over on Newman.

Chris Buescher – Buescher was a rocketship in second practice, but appeared to regress to normalcy in final practice. Phoenix has never been a great track for him, but he has been dynamite so far in 2019 – so I am comfortable ignoring the past. Buescher starts 22nd, and I think a top 15 is very realistic.

Michael McDowell –  The closest I can get to a “punt of the week”. I am not sure I would start anyone below him. McDowell had okay speed in final practice and should be able to improve on his 27th starting spot. David Ragan also fits into this category.

So there it is folks. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.