Schnarr’s Super Picks DFS PGA Preview – The Players Championship

Every week on the PGA Tour a new course means a new set of challenges. This article will examine the course being played and give specific insight on some keys for the week that other previews may be overlooking. This article will also breakdown players who stand out on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Cash Game and GPP formats. Finally, I will be reviewing my picks from before and going into a deeper dive on my Cash Game team in an attempt to better my own process while hopefully helping you with yours. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr

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Review from last week

In this section I will break down the players I wrote up from the prior week, how they did and how I played them in my line-ups.

$10K and up (Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Brooks Koepka)

I felt in this range you really could not go wrong and every pick was more than justified. I personally ended up using Brooks Koepka the most (oops), followed by Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler. With Brooks missing the cut, Rose coming T63 and Rickie finishing T40 youre only real shot at a good lineup if you went up top with your first pick was to play Rory. This breaks the trend of all of the $10K guys finishing near the top of the leaderboard.

$9K and up (Jason Day, Bryson Dechambeau, Marc Leishman, Hideki Matsuyama, Phil Mickelson, Tommy Fleetwood, Francesco Molinari)

At the beginning of the week I stated how I was most on Dechambeau, Hideki and Molinari. Luckily for me that did not really change, I was slightly under the field on Dechambeau and overweight on Hideki/Molinari. Unfortunately, I also ended up with a decent amound of Jason Day and between him/Brooks a lot of my GPP teams were done before the weekend began.

Lucas Glover – DK$8200 – T10

Glover was a staple for me in both cash and GPP formats, the guy has been playing great golf as of late and Poulter took away the majority of his ownership, while scoring 9 less fantasy points.

Si Woo Kim – DK$7800 – MC

Boom or bust GPP pick, Kim decided to bust this week.

Adam Hadwin – DK: $7700 – T23

A top twenty-fantasy performance from Hadwin was great for the price. I felt Hadwin was a little undervalued and was a sneaky course fit for the week.

Overall, the highlighted players did awful for me this week and it was not a great GPP week for me. However, things could have been much worse, a few players I highlighted in my final notes; Im, List, Mitchell I was well overweight on which made for some good 5/6 lineups. Also, because I play a larger portion of my contests in cash it still turned out to be a good week for me, more on that later.

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Course Preview

 In this section I will point out a few things that I find interesting about the course. If you’re a member at the Army you also have Josh’s article for more extensive reasoning on what the key stats are and our Domination Station showing what stats have been the most important historically.

  • Well the unofficial 5th Major narrative might be the most annoying narrative in all of golf it does mean we see an elite field. The elite filed makes the event more enjoyable as we will likely see a bunch of the top guys battling it out on Sunday. For DFS purposes, elite field and big tournament mean two things; larger GPP’s and very, very, VERY, soft pricing. At first glance, even those who don’t play weekly should see a ton of guys in the $7K and sub $6k range who are not only playable but in great spots.
  • TPC Sawgrass is a Pete Dye course, which means approach is even more critical than usual. Loading up on guys with a good approach game is never a bad strategy, but especially at a Dye track. If you needed any other reason to target approach, TPC Sawgrass has the smallest greens on tour – I know personally I’m more comfortable with a 35 foot chip compared to a 30 foot putt but I think for DFS we want the guy putting 10/10 times.
  • With that said, scrambling gets a bump for me as saving pars is key when necessary.
  • Might as well mention putting while I am at it, I am going to be looking for guys who have putted well at Sawgrass as well as other Pete Dye courses in the past.

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Interesting Plays

 In this section I will discuss plays that I like/dislike and guys that I find interesting for the week. Because this article comes out on a Monday this list can change, anyone I change my mind on will be discussed later in the week in our PGA coaching channel

$10K and up (Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Justin Rose, Brooks Koepka)

My first thought is because of the soft pricing there is no real concern fitting in DJ, JT or Rory. I mean, I can start DJ and still fit Paul Casey, Hideki Matsuyama, Gary Woodland, RCB, Emiliano Grillo and still have a few hundred left over. Although we have not seen the field shying away from the top salaries in GPP’s this year there is certainly no indication we will see it this week with the soft pricing. With that said those three are the top of the field with how they have played this week and you can make the case for all of them. In the next three we had Tiger coming off backing out the week prior, Rose coming off of an off week and Brooks is coming off of a missed cut. While I think people will play Tiger because it’s Tiger and Rose/Koepka will get a bit of ownership because everyone in this range does I do think this pair is viable if you are looking for lower ownership. Personally, I think my favourite and likely highest owned will still be Rory, but it is enticing to start with Brooks, get the savings and build a really solid team.

$9K and up (Rickie Fowler, Jon Rahm, Bryson Dechambeau, Jason Day, Sergio Garcia, Xander Schauffele)

This range is loaded and I can see myself loading up with a few of these guys with the soft pricing below. Up top we have Rickie who still managed a top 20 fantasy performance despite a T40 finish, the well rested Jon Rahm, who outside of his latest T45 was on a top ten tear, Dechambeau who has seemed a little off as of late, Jason Day who by the looks of it had a great weekend at Disney, Sergio who has been arguably in that top group outside of Saudi Arabia, and Xander who can’t seem to get the respect he deserves as a top ten payer. I really like Rahm, Sergio and Xander on my first look. I think although the pricing is soft if you load up on one of the top three guys it becomes tough to fit in one of these mid $9k who are arguably playing just as well as the top tier.

Francesco Molinari – DK: $8600

How can you not write about the latest champion on tour? Molinari had an incredible Sunday to take home the win the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Although he missed the cut last year he looked good in his prior two appearances with a T6 and a T7 in the two years prior, I will be on Francesco again this week.

Hideki Matsuyama – DK: $8300

Just like last week I am loving the price on Hideki this week. He is gaining strokes like a mad man approaching the green, just needs to find his putter.

Sii Woo Kim – DK: $7700

With all of the other options I can’t see ownership being too high on Kim coming off of a MC. The missed cut was only really one poor round and Kim has been top five in two of his last three appearances. Oh yeah, Kim also won here a few years ago as well.

The misprices (Paul Casey, Gary Woodland, Rafa Cabrera-Bello)

Although there is obviously more than 3, these are the first prices that stood out as egregious to me (did I use that word right?) All three of these guys are flat out priced wrong. Due to this discrepancy all three will inevitably be near the top of the ownership chart when contest start Thursday. I think a lot of times we see dumb chalk on golf where we get a guy who is marginally better than the rest of his tier and he ends up at 20+%, this is not one of those times and all of these guys are viable and will be parts of my core. With that said, I will be looking to differentiate elsewhere and/or keep $100 or $200 in salary, just doing that greatly enhances the odds of the line-up staying unique.

Cash Game Review

I will end each article going over my cash game line-up for the week, breaking down my plays and reflecting for the following week

The Team (5.5-2.5) Another winning week!

The Team

Hideki Matsuyama – T33

Tommy Fleetwood – T3

Jason Kokrak – T10

Lucas Glover – T10

Michael Thompson – MC

Rafa Cabrera-Bello – T3

This week seemed to have a few obvious price discrepancies to take advantage off. First, I wanted both RCB and Lucas Glover regardless of the rest of my team, both were simply mispriced for cash. Then, I felt comfortable with Michael Thompson given his recent play, allowing me to go up top to Fleetwood and Matsuyama – 2 guys I really wanted to fit in if possible. This allowed me to finish with Kokrak who has been playing great and I thought would be a bit more popular than 3.1% owned. From this point I looked at potentially switching Thompson/Kokrak for Poulter/Hadwin or ZJ but felt comfortable with what I had. In retrospect, regardless of the result I do feel this was a mistake, Poulter was mega chalk based on what he has accomplished overseas and while I felt this wouldn’t necessarily translate I do not think it was wise to fade a 50+% owned player because I liked my combo better, if Poulter gets a few more birdies I potentially do not cash, If Kokrak gets a few more birdies im still fine. Nonetheless the team was able to make the cash line and save me from a less than ideal week in GPP’s.

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