NHL Breakaway – Fanduel and Draftkings DFS Strategy Advice – Mar 12

Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!!  You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process.  I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching.  But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers across all our main sports.  If you are looking for it, we cover it!  Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.

NHL DFS Matchup Rankings L10 Games

Last 10 games sample size. Home teams in white, away in gray.  GF = Goals For, GA = Goals Against.  MU Score is a combined metric showing how one matchup tonight compares to the others on paper.  Green is good, red is bad.  We are looking for the best matchups of teams scoring goals facing teams allowing goals.  Not exactly rocket science, so don’t overthink it.  PPMU is another telling metric, but I save that one for VIPs.  Just ask me in our coaching forums…

My plan is to describe the games some and drop quality players in these lists.  You will get my player pool (VIPs might get bonus plays in our coaching forums later).  My cash players are those I would happily use in head-to-head formats, 5050 contests, small leagues, and even some larger leagues.  They will anchor my lineups in all formats and contain a lot of value plays and/or punts.  The core gets you to the dance.  The slightly funky plays off your core push you into the gpp money.  Your core is everything!  Even gpp-only players need a core of solid production to build from.

Dallas Stars @ Buffalo Sabres

Odds: DAL -135, 5.5 o/u

3-1 on the early month, Dallas has been scoring a little lately.  While the 2.7 per game L10 isn’t impressive, it’s out of the 2.2 range it was in a couple weeks back. As expected, Radulov/Seguin/Benn lead the way and also correlate on your PP1 stacks.  I might look to a Klingberg or Lindell, also, but the production really drops off quickly.  As these three go, Dallas goes.  Keep it simple.  Goalie – Ben Bishop comes in as the league’s #2 star last week with two shutouts and 3 wins in a row.  Over his last 5 games, he hasn’t allowed more than 2 goals.  We might have other favorites tonight, but it’s hard to completely ignore him in gpps.

5 star plays – Radulov (W), Seguin (C)
4 star plays 
– Benn (W), Klingberg (D), Lindell (D)
Cash gamers 
– Radulov, (Hintz for punt)
GPP Sleeper – PP1 is likely to be underowned

Buffalo enters tonight on the schnide.  1-4 so far this March, it’s not good for Sabres fans (despite what Antonio Brown said on Twitter).  Scoring isn’t exactly down, but lead stud Jack Eichel just took a bogus suspension from a weird hit in Colorado and will miss 2 NHL games.  Without the engine, and with a pretty low MU Score of 48, I don’t see much of a chance Buffalo gets out of the gate at all vs a rather defensive Dallas Stars club tonight.  Goalie – Carter Hutton is expected, and as expected, he be no bueno.  Hutton has lost all but one of his L10 starts.  You might see a couple no decisions mixed in….we’ll, he was pulled for ineffectiveness in those.  Don’t touch him.

5 star plays – I won’t
4 star plays 
– be
Cash gamers 
– playing
GPP Sleeper – Sabres

Washington Capitals @ Pittsburgh Penguins

Odds: PIT -135, 6.5 o/u

Washington are winners of their last seven, and 9 of their L10 games.  They are playing solid defense (bad news for PIT) and scoring again, 3.6 goals per across this streak.  Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Carlson lead the way…and again make a nice PP1 stack.  Oshie, Wilson, and Eller mix in along with a few deeper value plays like Connolly and Burakovsky for super cheap.  Goalie – It appears Braden Holtby is on one of his patented hot streaks, as he’s won 5 in a row and 7 of his last 9 games with only one implosion on the streak.  Penguins are a tall task, but he’s a low owned goalie tonight that has the ability to shoot the lights out and win you a gpp by generating leverage against a popular team.  #LeverageTheLazy that blindly reach for PIT skaters without looking at the matchup.

5 star plays – Ovechkin (W)
4 star plays 
– Carlson (D), Backstrom (C), Oshie (W), Wilson (W)
Cash gamers 
– Wilson, Burakovsky, Eller
GPP Sleeper – I would be overweight on Ovechkin tonight…..he’s had 2 poor games in a row and won’t be kept down for long.

Pittsburgh has won 4 of 6 so far this month, and comes into tonight outscoring opponents 19-13 in March. But, I’m not the fan of this matchup the public is likely to be.  I see WAS only allowing 2.3 goals against over their own hot streak and it’s a bit concerning to me.  PIT becomes very “gpp only” for me tonight.  Sidney Crosby is a stud, and a fine one-off play, but I just don’t see wasting the stacking resources outside of trying to win a tournament.  Malkin and Guentzel would be my other targets.  I think I can pass on most of the rest.  Goalie – Matt Murray is a high risk play tonight.  He has shown fairly well lately, but in his nice little stretch, he caught Columbus twice, Florida, and Montreal…..not exactly a who’s who of Cup Contenders.

5 star plays – Crosby (C)
4 star plays 
– Malkin (C), Guentzel (W)
Cash gamers 
– none
GPP Sleeper – PIT1 with Crosby/Guentzel

Boston Bruins @ Columbus Blue Jackets

Odds: CBJ -120, 6 o/u

Boston catches Columbus on a back to back tonight.  We don’t have a lot of MU Score working in our favor in this one, so I’d keep my exposure to both sides rather limited.  DeBrusk was a boss before getting hurt, but 2nd line centerman David Krejci hasn’t missed much of a beat here, and he might be our only somewhat decent priced viable play.  I still think I pull the fade out here and drop Boston like a hot coal.  Goalie – I have to pay attention to the 16-4 over L20 record of Tukka Rask here, especially when given the trainwreck that Columbus has become lately.  I’m rather surprised Vegas has BOS as the underdog here.  I don’t know that I’ll call him my “cash goalie” yet, but 16-4 is a sick run and BOS is only allowing 2.1 goals against over their L10 games.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– none
Cash gamers 
– none
GPP Sleeper – powerful offense, some stacks are viable here…..I’d focus on BOS2

Columbus is searching for answers right now.  They can’t seem to find the back of the net since deciding to stand pat at the trade deadline.  The Jackets are only averaging 2.0 goals in their L1o games giving them a pretty horrible MU Score tonight of only 41.  I won’t bother to waste your time with names to play…..fade.  Goalie – Bobrovsky is favored, and I suppose you could load him in some larger NHL gpps.  I won’t.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– none
Cash gamers 
– none
GPP Sleeper – none

Detroit Red Wings @ Montreal Canadiens

Odds: MTL -200, 6 o/u

Detroit has lost 10 of 11 coming into tonight, and while giving up 4.1 goals per game in that span, their offense seems to have shut it down for the year, too, only scoring 2.0 goals per game.  It’s hard to find anything to like here.  I can fade them all.  Goalie – The 4.1 goals against and losers of 10 in their last 11 sort of says it all.  Don’t target a goalie here, no matter the results, unless you have first scheduled your lobotomy appointment.

5 star plays – my
4 star plays 
– new
Cash gamers 
– Anaheim
GPP Sleeper – Ducks

Just because Vegas says Montreal should win here doesn’t mean it’s great for DFS.  The MU Score is also possibly misleading at a slate-high 73.  The Habs are only scoring about 3.2 goals per game right now.  March has seen them score only 12 goals in 5 games…..not exactly “large slate inspiring.”  Hard to call them cash-viable….and we might be best leaving them as tournament options.  Goalie – Taking shots at Carey Price are really banking on the -200 from Vegas.  The Montreal defense has been porous to say the least, giving 8 to Anaheim last time out.  Price is too expensive for my liking.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– Gallagher (W), Byron (W)
Cash gamers 
– Benn (D)
GPP Sleeper – Hard to correlate…..MTL1 would be where I start, though.

What a weekend for NBA!!  Our coaches have done a lot of explaining, and our members have done a lot of winning.  The edge clearly resides in coaching.  Content and tools are nice, but how can you exploit your opponents when you don’t have the experts teaching you how to apply the content and tools?  That’s where DFS Army steps in.  Become a VIP and see what all the fuss is about…..#RaiseYourEdge!!

Arizona Coyotes @ St. Louis Blues

Odds: STL -190, 5.5 o/u

Arizona has been tough and scrappy lately, and they have found themselves in the playoff picture.  However, STL catches them on a back to back night coming off a disastrous game with CHI in which they allowed an uncharacteristic 7 goals!  STL isn’t the juggernaut CHI is, offensively.  But, they also aren’t the sieve CHI is defensively.  The Coyotes should have fared better…and this matchup is going to be tougher.  Good luck.  Goalie – Pickard is 4-5-2 on the season with an .873 save percentage.  His goals allowed recently have a lot of crooked numbers:  3, 4, 4, 2, 4……..hard pass.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– Dvorak (C), Chychrun (D), Keller (W)
Cash gamers 
– Dvorak, Chychrun
GPP Sleeper – no

St. Louis finds themselves without Vladimir Tarasenko, and it’s just another blow to a top line that needs to remain together to give STL much of a chance.  With Tarasenko/O’Rielly/Schenn united, the Blues are 13-0 and went on that 11 game winning streak.  Without them together, STL is not a .500 club.  Not a prediction STL loses the game.  More of a prediction the NHL DFS implications of this -190 out of Vegas are going to be a letdown.  I’m inclined to believe the 5.5 game total leaning to the under and just avoid all but the goalie here.  Goalie – Jordan Binnington has been announced already as tonight’s starter by the Blues and their coach.  He has shown weaknesses in the armor lately, but he has also been due some regression.  Vegas seems to think Binnington is in a good spot, and so do I.  I’ll have some serious interest tonight.  However, I will still be looking for cheaper, equally sensible options.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– Schenn (W)
Cash gamers 
– Schenn
GPP Sleeper – no

San Jose Sharks @ Winnipeg Jets

Odds: WPG -120, 6.5 o/u

San Jose is still among the leaders in goals for, and we should keep our eyes focused on teams like this for DFS.  The Sharks do draw a weird matchup in that Winnipeg plays tougher at home.  However, the slate doesn’t offer a lot of solid choices, and we have two MU Scores indicating a shootout is possible tonight.  We also see the PPMU gives two green lights.  We “should” see some scoring from both sides.  Timo Meier and Tomas Hertl are really driving the San Jose bus right now, and pricing has yet to completely catch up to them.  They don’t necessarily correlate well, but I will have one or the other in anything Shark-related I do.  Goalie – I’m not going into a paper-indicated shootout thinking about goalies.

5 star plays – Couture (C), Meier (W), Hertl (C)
4 star plays 
– Burns (D), Labanc (W)
Cash gamers 
– Hertl, Meier
GPP Sleeper – Vlasic (D), Meier, Hertl, Couture…..very strange stack indeed

Winnipeg has been better in March so far.  Posting a 3-2 record, but more impressively, scoring 21 goals in just 5 games.  The firepower is there.  We just have to harness it.  San Jose has been solid defensively, but the Jets have loads of talent.  I might not go overboard in cash situations, but if you remember, I did tell you last Friday that stacking WPG vs CAR wasn’t the worst gpp idea…..and they blew up for an unpredictable 8 goals.  If I haven’t said it twice already, the Jets can be explosive.  Goalie – as stated above, no interest in potential shootouts.

5 star plays – Wheeler (W)
4 star plays 
– Scheifele (C), Laine (W), Connor (W), Ehlers (W), Trouba (D)
Cash gamers 
– Copp (C)
GPP Sleeper – WPG PP1 with Trouba (but it’s not a sleeper)

New Jersey Devils @ Calgary Flames

Odds: CGY -420, 6 o/u

New Jersey is another team that is just very hard to want to roster in DFS.  Only scoring 1.8 goals in 10 games isn’t going to cut it.  Don’t waste your research time here.  Just move on.  If they blow up randomly, not enough people will have them to hurt you in almost any contest, provided you still do well with your other plays.  Goalie – Yeh…..my avatar eats chalk…..like I’m in the habit of taking a goalie as a -420 underdog.  Get real.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– none
Cash gamers 
– none
GPP Sleeper – none

Just because Calgary gives us the big Vegas odds doesn’t mean they will score a ton of goals.  It means the win should be secure only.  Calgary hasn’t scored but 2.4 goals per game over their last 10…..and that includes a 6-burst vs the Golden Knights last time out.  Jersey hasn’t been giving a lot, either.  It’s more that Jersey can’t score…making our goalie rather safe tonight.  I would, however, be interested in a Giordano as all-access to this offense in case it does come to life tonight.  Goalie – I don’t care who’s in net here….it could be your grandmother.  I’d still call her cash safe.  I’ll probably lose, because that’s what NHL DFS does, but on paper this is bar none the safest cash play probably of the week.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– Backlund (C), Giordano (D), Tkachuk (W)
Cash gamers 
– Hamonic (D)
GPP Sleeper – I suppose, but I’d rather just keep the mini-stack of Gio/Backlund in play here…..I’d include Tkachuk if going with 3.

Nashville Predators @ Anaheim Ducks

Odds: NSH -165, 5.5

Nashville has the odds, but they have not been DFS-relevant.  You are better off fading this side of the game completely.  Goalie – I think we have identified better plays on the slate in net, too.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– none
Cash gamers 
– none
GPP Sleeper – none

Anaheim has a little intrigue, but only because they are dirt cheap.  I’m not stacking them on a slate this size with any expectations of investing such a chunk of my roster in this offense.  Goalie – I’m not a fan of taking Gibson, either.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– none
Cash gamers 
– pure punt plays, maybe…but I’d rather look for upside in other offenses
GPP Sleeper – nope

Here is a one game view of our NHL Research Station matchup page.  My daily videos typically walk you through this page and point out how I quickly decipher the best plays on the slate.  When you unlock access to this page, you get team stats with large and small sample sizes to pick up trends, all the basis statistics, pricing, scoring lines, power play lines, scoring production including shots and blocks, and you get it all in one easy to read view.  But, you only get it as a VIP.  99% of the stats I reference are directly from this single page.  Your research has never been easier!!

Hockey is incredibly similar to baseball.  Are you getting spring fever?  Fire up a quick refresher with The Top 5 Stats You’ll Only Find At DFS Army!

Favorite NHL DFS Stacks for Tonight…

What is NHL without stacking?!

SJS2
SJS PP1
WAS2
WAS PP1
WPG1
WPG PP1

GPP Sleeper stack = Not super sneaky, but sneaky enough.  DAL1 with Radulov, Seguin, and Klingberg gives us a shot at big points in a matchup that might fly a little under the radar being people should see the obvious Washington, San Jose, and Winnipeg spots we should be targeting with our cash games. 

Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research.  I will be bouncing in and out of our NHL coaching room all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions.  I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process most days, and with a little time, our VIPs request shorter, strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too.  All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.

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I hope to see you inside soon.  Have a blessed day.