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NASCAR Calming the Chaos 3/31/19 – Texas Motor Speedway

Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos!  Qualifying was pretty wild, but with that comes a ton of great options for cash games and GPP alike.  There’s a lot to touch on this week, so let’s get to it!

As always, if you haven’t already,  be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it.

Texas Motor Speedway

We’re in Texas this week at a standard 1.5-mile track, as opposed to the three short track races that are on either side of this race on the schedule.  The important thing to note is that there are some drivers we like to target at short tracks (that probably won’t be as strong this week), and there are some drivers that are stronger at these 1.5-mile tracks so we’ll want to target them while they are in play.  Don’t worry, we’ll go over all of that here and in Slack!

Lineup construction/correlation

With the way qualifying turned out, we’re going to need to get a lot of pieces from the high end this weekend, so both value/stud heavy and stars & scrubs lineups are the primary focus.  With 334 laps and so much place differential potential, expect to see some high scores this week.

There’s not really enough mid-range value to make a balanced lineup work, and I don’t expect this race to mimic a plate race, so I wouldn’t load up with a bunch of low-end cars hoping for a bunch of crashes.

All that said, this should be a really good race for cash games, and especially good for those who like to run multiple ladders.  With so many great choices to go around, having exposure to all of it in cash games will give you a very nice floor this week while still giving you a good ceiling.  Hedge with pivots in GPP and you’re in a great spot to come away from this weekend with some sort of a profit!

Dominators

We have 334 total laps this week, which keeps our need for dominators fairly high again.  The race calculator recommends two to three dominators on DraftKings and one or two on FanDuel.  I would probably lean towards two dominators on both sites in all formats, as I don’t think we’ll see another solo performance again this week.

There are enough laps to feed three of them, but I don’t think we’ll see that play out either (the big name dominators will probably stay out front for a long time once they get there).  I would go fairly light on the solo and triple-dominator lineups.

Kyle Busch, Harvick, and Truex Jr are probably the most likely to lead once they get up front, and they all offer a good chunk of place differential and top-5 potential.  One of them will probably be in the winning lineup.

Kurt Busch will probably be the chalk of the week, but for good reason.  He’s in a fantastic spot and could easy make his way into the winning lineup.  Don’t play cash games without him this week!  For GPP, I don’t recommend trying to match the field.  I would go with one extreme or the other; go really heavy on him or just fade him.  Going with the field isn’t going to help you stand out.

Blaney makes a very good GPP pivot this week and I wouldn’t play without some exposure to him.  He can safely be paired with anybody else.

I’m not too big on Bowyer or Aric dominating this race, so I would lean towards cash game use for them as studs only.  They will be more in play next week for leading laps.

Studs

There’s not much for pure studs, but there are a ton of hybrids this week (see the dom stud tab).  These guys are going to be pretty important this week, so be sure to load up on them as much as possible and get plenty of exposure to the GPP pivots.

Don’t completely overlook Jones though.  He isn’t in as good as a spot as the others, but that’s only going to keep his ownership down.  He’s still worth having some exposure to, especially on FanDuel where their scoring will help him close the gap to the others.

Value studs

There are a bunch of drivers in this price range, but half of them are probably worth a fade.

Those that remain are mostly GPP pivots, but there are two notable drivers to point out.  Bowman looks to be a solid target, and Buescher is also back on the menu since we’re at a 1.5-mile track this week.  Play him and take advantage of a good score, then fade him next week when we head back to a short track.

Value

Again, there’s not a ton to love here outside of some GPP pivots, but these guys will still be important to help glue together some lineups.

DiBenedetto and Ragan are the main cash game options, with Tifft and Preece making solid GPP pivots.  Chastain can be used in all formats, but I would probably lean GPP with him and pay up for one of the first two for cash.

The other three are fades.

Punts

Parker and Reed can be used for cash games, and the rest are there for GPP pivots.  I don’t love Landon this week and I don’t think LaJoie will do a hell of a lot either, so I wouldn’t be against just fading them.

The four super-punts can be used for top-heavy lineups, but I would try to go for Parker or Reed first if it can be helped.

Stacks

There aren’t any super high-powered stacks this week, but there are still some worth mentioning:

Cash stack – Kyle Busch or Harvick or Truex JrKurt + Bowman.  This is a great way to start a lineup this week and it’s where I recommend starting for cash.

CGR stack (Larson and Kurt) is also a good way to start, though there’s not a ton of dominator potential here, so be sure to get at least one to go with them.

Hendrick stack is finally in play, though I would not recommend it for cash games.  Start by taking Jimmie or Chase (or take them both, as that could also work), then add some Bowman to complete the stack.  I wouldn’t take Byron here, as I don’t see him paying off this week.

A Penske stack is always in play, though this week I would look a just two of them.  Start with Brad K or Logano and pair one of them with Blaney.  I don’t see a path for all three of them paying off in the same lineup on either site.

A SHR stack could also be used; start with Harvick and take Bowyer and/or Aric to go with him.  If it’s for cash games, swap one of those two out for Kurt instead, but this makes a good GPP pivot for lineups where you don’t want him.

Pivots

As usual, don’t get cute in cash games.  There are a ton of great plays this week, so use them!

GPP on the other hand, this week will be a dream for those of you who love to go after those lower-owned GPP pivots.  I pointed out my favorite ones (look for those highlighted in yellow), but all of them (that aren’t marked as fades) are worth having some exposure to this week.

Also, as I’ve said before, don’t go crazy and fade ALL of the good chalky plays.  There are just too many of them this week for them to all fail.  Rather, be a little more decisive in how you approach things; make a few key fades or bump up the overall exposure to the pivots, while still weaving in the chalkier plays.  I could almost guarantee that at least 3 or 4 chalky drivers will wind up in the winning lineup this week.

Closing thoughts

A crazy qualifying session has given this race a very high scoring ceiling, so be sure to build accordingly.  Don’t be afraid to eat some chalk this week, as it will most likely be a necessity to win.  That said, don’t neglect the pivots, as there are several in really good spots that will probably go under-owned.

That’s going to do it for this one.  Good luck, and see you all in Slack!