Hello DFS Army members and we are now into the month of March! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to be a part of the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re also playing FanDuel tonight, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Tonight we’ve got a really big slate, which is usually the case on Wednesday nights. With 10 games on tap tonight there should be some value opening up, which can lead to some of those value traps. I see a few that stand out that I think are traps so you can avoid those pitfalls and make some nice cash. Keep in mind a lot of these traps are not only guys that will under perform, but also just don’t have the ceiling you’re looking for when it comes to helping you win GPPs.
Last Article’s Traps:
Terrance Ferguson (8.25) – Hopefully you listened here, a bit of value opened up so hopefully I swayed you off playing him as a value play, especially on DK.
CJ McCollum (35.5) – He didn’t have the upside for me, he only reached this mark by scoring 27 actual points, either way he didn’t have the upside we wanted yesterday.
Wesley Matthews (21.75) – He started off really high, but like we talked about yesterday his ceiling isn’t that high with Tyreke Evans back.
Justin Holiday (5.25) – He sucks. Plain and simple.
Now we’ll look at my picks from last article:
Darren Collison (34.0) – 6.2x value, and that’s even after he got off a bad first half.
Myles Turner (41.75) – 7.3x value, Myles had a block party to himself last night, it was a nice predictable bounce back game.
Nikola Vucevic (32.5) – Vuc really prevented a big night for me last night, both Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier got off to a really hot start and were dominating control of the ball. I watched Gordon actually rip 2 rebounds right out of Vuc’s hands. The process was there, he checked all the boxes, variance keeps us honest and this one just didn’t pan out. I would’ve played Vuc in this spot 10/10 at his price yesterday.
Ben Simmons (50.75) – 6x value, DraftKings refuses to up his price with Embiid out. He should be 9K plus as long as he’s out, him Harris and Butler will dominate usage until Embiid comes back.
Avery Bradley (26.75) – 6.1x value, this one really hurts as he scored over 20FPs in the first half and then disappeared in the second. He could’ve gotten us 10x value if he just kept up pace.
Tobias Harris (50.5) – 6.8x, he’s simply way too underpriced on DraftKings. He’s still in the 7K range and he has another good matchup tonight.
Now let’s dig into tonight!
Value Traps
Dirk Nowitzki ($3,300) – Dirk has been getting those Hall of Fame minutes over the past few weeks, but now he’s said that he’d like to play one more year to help develop the new guys (mainly Luka and Kristaps) so I’m expecting those minutes to start to dwindle a bit. It started last game as they got blown out and he only saw 19 minutes and scored under 12 FPs. They have a very winnable game tonight against Washington and I expect him to see under 20 minutes of playing time tonight and his shot really hasn’t been falling (8/33 over his last 3 games). Even so, I know he’s cheap but for value we’re looking for guys that have been thrust into a really good spot, the upside simply isn’t there with Dirk tonight.
Miles Bridges ($3,100) – This more has to do with Frank Kaminsky being put back in the rotation as it affected Bridges’ minutes the most. The Bobcats are now playing Kaminsky 20+ minutes a game, which seems like it will continue tonight. This effects Bridges the most as he is now likely to play under 20 minutes again tonight. He also scored less than 10 FPs last time out and we also have one of the slower paced games on the slate against the Heat. I know he’s dirt cheap, but once again he just doesn’t have the upside or opportunity you’re looking for in a value play. The cherry on the top of this trap sundae is that his And1 rating is actually -5.3…..I’ll pass.
Reggie Bullock ($4,200) – The Lakers really need to shake something up as they’ve lost their last 3 and his minutes have been fluctuating over those 3 losses. He went from over 30 minutes a game to 26 minutes, 19 minutes, and then played 36 minutes last game. His usage since joining the Lakers is also a paltry 13.1%, which needless to say you know isn’t good. He’s also trending downwards in the RS:
Walton will likely shake things up and with Hart finding his way back into the rotation it really diminishes Bullock’s upside. I think he sees a reduction in minutes and even if he still see’s 30+ his ceiling is capped with Hart back and a horrid usage percentage. Just look at all that red, he’s averaging 9 FPPG less over his last 3 and returning 2.9x value. Even with Ingram out last game he didn’t perform either. I like him even less (if that’s possible) if Ingram plays.
Just Missed the Cut: Jayson Tatum ($5,800) – This is setting up as a perfect let down game after their huge upset of Golden State last game. Hayward looked like his old self last night, and with that I expect him to see some additional minutes tonight, which will cut into Tatum’s minutes along with Morris’ minutes. Tatum also hasn’t made the jump that many expected in his second year and his ceiling really hasn’t been there. I really don’t like him unless Kyrie is out as it really caps his ceiling. I honestly don’t see him topping 30 FPs tonight.
UPDATE: With Irving out, Tatum is a decent play.
Who’s Trending
Ben Simmons ($8,900) – I really don’t know what else he has to to do but DraftKings just refuses to increase his price to over 9K with Embiid out this past week. His numbers look like a damn Christmas Tree in the RS:
He’s up over 15 FP/PG and is averaging 52 FP/PG over his last 5. Throw in the fact that he’s playing over 40 minutes a game at the same time and now he gets another cake matchup against the Bulls who are really bad against Point Guards (see Darren Collison yesterday). Much like the Magic yesterday, Simmons is a huge matchup problem for every team the Sixers face because no one has another point guard with his height and length and if they move one of their bigger guys onto him it creates mismatches elsewhere. He’s also destroyed the Bulls as he’s averaging over 60 FP/PG over his last 3 matchups against them. As I’m typing this Embiid has also officially been ruled out as well, so I’m going back to the Simmons well tonight.
Tobias Harris ($7,700) – I’m going to be pairing these two in a good amount of lineups tonight, as Harris has also been lighting it up over the last week with Embiid out. DraftKings also is refusing to raise his price as he is still under 8K!!! I think the RS is too low on him today, as he’s averaging 44.1 FP/PG over his last 5, and 2 of those were 50 burgers. If Jonah Bolden is ruled out again tonight he should also see some minutes at the 5 and he would be a lock for around 35 minutes. I think 35 FPs is his floor tonight as the Bulls should keep this one competitive being at home and getting the Sixers on the 2nd half of a B2B.
Blake Griffin ($8,600) – Minnesota is terribleeeeeeeee against power forwards since they added Saric. They’re ranked 27th aDvP at the moment. The dude is a serious defensive liability and Blake smashes when he matches up against him. He has elite usage at 30.2% and I expect this game to be very competitive as the Pistons are trying to hang onto their playoff spot as they currently are in the 7th spot in the East. He’s coming off a down game against Toronto as he scored less than 40 FPs even with OT and I expect him to bounce back in a big way tonight. BG is still one of the premier PFs in this league, and Saric simply can’t hang with him. He’s going to go off tonight.
Dwight Powell ($5,900) – I was going to write up Powell today anyway, and it was confirmed when I saw what Donuts posted about him on Twitter, just take a look:
The dude is just super efficient and he should see at least 30 minutes tonight with the potential for 35+ if Kleber is ruled out. He also has the ceiling for that 50 burger as well and should have no problem getting a double double with the Wizards rebounding woes.
Derrick White ($5,400) – Guards against the Hawks….well, really anyone against the Hawks as they are ranked dead last in overall team defense and they can be attacked from any position on the court. His minutes have also been trending upward, as he played 35 minutes last game and scored just under 40 FPs. He’s averaging 6.6x value over his last 3 and I expect him to get you between 6x-7x again tonight in this cake matchup. You can play multiple Spurs tonight as the Hawks will keep it competitive and there will be a ton of points scored in this game.
Just Missed the Cut: Josh Hart ($3,300) – We’re gonna need some value tonight to fit these guys in and Hart is a guy that is checking some boxes for me tonight. With Kuzma already ruled out tonight, it will likely bump Hart into the starting lineup. He should see close to 30 minutes today and he could easily return 7-8x value with that kind of run. I like him even more if Ingram is ruled out as well.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I am your DraftKings coach for tonight!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
Come join the Army and start counting your winnings! Use code: MUTT18 for 20% off!
